Saturday, July 20, 2019

Market Update 7/20/2019 - A Look At The Week Ahead

It was kind of a stressful week, and still getting caught up today, Saturday. 

It was a wild OPEX Friday, starting with a higher high (off Thursdays bottom), followed by a pulled back to a higher low, and that's bullish. $VIX also ended below the previous high of 14.48, so we're not seeing much fear in the market. Unless the market can start making lower lows, then I'm going to remain bullish going into the The Fed announcement, at the end of the month.

The public charts area has been updated,

 and I've switched out the 1 min. chart for a 5 minute chart.

$SPX 5 min: Watch for another breakout to the upside Monday morning, unless it continues to consolidate (bullish), below my red line. That would push-back the breakout until Technical Tuesday.


Friday's action was more about Options Expiration, than anything. Bloomberg was seen reporting - BREAKING NEWS - that Iran has seized a British oil tanker, and that helped ensure that the retail bulls would not get paid on their bullish Call Options.

This is what happens when you hammer down the $VIX, instead of buying insurance... Complacency can be a dangerous thing, and bad things come when you least expect them.

The main reason for this update is to get you focused on the longer term, instead of a 1 min chart, which I've had to switch out in the middle of the afternoon, 2 days in a row now, because after a few hours of volatile trading the chart is a complete and total mess. I've gone to a 5 min chart view, hoping that solves the problem, but the 1 - 5 minute charts, are for day traders, and more for entertainment purposes than anything else.

If you trade on a longer term basis, you need to follow the longer term charts, and not worry about 100 point swings on the DOW, or whether or not "stocks maintained their 3 day winning streak", or , "stocks ended down for the week". This kind of reporting is a distraction from reality, and meant to keep people watching cable news, for rating ratings.

This brings me to the next chart - The DJIA daily candlestick chart:




As you can see on the above chart, the market has hardly moved over the past week, and continues to hold up in the top of the range, above my thin blue line. This chart isn't available in the public charts area, because unless folks care enough to follow this blog, they don't deserve the best charts I have to offer. That goes for the $VIX charts as well. Why should I give it all away for free?

$VIX continues to trend lower

,and as long as that continues, the "no fear" trade, as I like to call it, is on.

If you'd like a copy of my short term $VIX chart, and personalized charts, and updates, for 30 days, make a donation of $100. I'll even show you where the next major market correction is going to take place, and that could save you a bundle! Here's a link to my Paypal, if you're interest.

SILVER: Almost broke the stop hunt on Friday, but that never happens on the first test of key support. Dip buyers always come in, so I'm expecting a nice 2 - 3 rally. It may even continue to hold up into the Fed.

SLV - This is the 30 min from the public charts area



Silver contracts expired on Friday, and that's something you definitely want to keep in mind, when trading commodities. Equities markets are all about Options Expiration, and commodities are about contract expiration.

Good luck this week, Traders 































s

Friday, July 19, 2019

Market Update 7/19/2019 - The Week In Review

Announcements: I'm still locked out of my Twitter account, so I can't provide updates on the fly.
Support is non existent, and unless you have a phone number associated with your account, it's a real PITA to get your account back.

Watch the short term $SPX chart, for intra-day updates, in the annotations. Refresh your screen often, especially when when the market is moving, or you see me "Charting in real time".

Major Malfunction: After finishing up yesterday's update, I discovered the Public Charts area wasn't even public, so Wednesday was a total waste of time, and energy. At least I got it back up in time for yesterday's trade, which turned out to be a monster!

Yesterday's reversal: It was incredible, and coincided with the bottom in Oil, which I also nailed perfectly! Then news breaks - that we shot down an Iranian drone - to confirm what I was seeing on the chart. Uncanny!

$USO
  
$SPX - yesterday's short covering rally almost made up for the lack of clarity of the past week.
Until a down-trend is established it's hard to get short.... but by yesterday's open the trend had become clear, and the breakout was obvious. 



In hind sight, even after getting bearish on Tuesday, I was apparently not bearish enough. I think I was little distracted this week, with setting up the public charts area, and the volume has been light, but I think I can do better....

Calling tops and bottoms has become somewhat routine, but even after 10+ years of this, it's not easy trading into a reversal, and picking a pullback target, especially when markets tend to overshoot, and you got machines buying moving averages, and such.

If you think equities are hard to predict, try Gold & Silver and the Miners!

$GDX - I'm still seeing a broadening pattern, and a major bottom around this time next year, which lines up pretty well for a major top in equities, but we I think won't know for a couple more weeks.
If the Fed drops the ball again, it could be a game changer for metals.     



Short term outlook is somewhat bearish. I think we can hold up today, and trade up into a range, going into the Fed, but  I think this weeks pullback was the beginning of a larger correction

TGIF, AA




Thursday, July 18, 2019

Market Update 7/18/2019 - Searching for a pullback target


 We've seen a little selling over the past few days, but nothing to write home about. We've established a little downtrend, on the 1 min chart, and if this continues, the trend on the longer term charts is going to start breaking, and that's going to cause downside acceleration, but I'm not expecting that.

I've drawn up a couple fresh 1 min chart views this morning: 1 is in the public charts area, and this is the other one (below). The larger pattern looks like a rising expanding triangle (aka megaphone pattern), with a 2981 - 82 target. Whichever charts works, we'll go with.


 It's important to watch the $VIX here. If it continues to break out, and gets above the 14.10 level, we could see a nice little washout. That's the short term pivot

$VIX - 10 min view:


 Tomorrow is OPEX, so I'm expecting the market to build a base this morning, and squeeze the short sellers out on a Friday as usual. Then we got the THE FED announcement...

The $RUT continues to consolidate bullish imo, and that be the sector that continues to lag behind the broader market.  Here's a 30 min chart, I may add to the PC area.


 That may not be the prettiest chart, but it's still working. The trend (in blue) is up. 

 Speaking of Trends: Silver continues higher, and miners managed to make a new high as well.
Commodities tend to overshoot, as do the leveraged ETF's. This is the norm.
$NUGT has doubled since June, and just pierced the upper triangle line, and if you don't know what that means, go back as read the previous sentence.


 And finally - NetFlix trading in the same pattern as the DOW. Amazing!




Public charts - auto refresh Issues continue -

I found an app to refresh the public charts window, but as it turns out, on a refresh; the page asks if I want to resent the data, so that's not going to work.

For now I'll try to refresh the charts manually every hour on the hour, but unless donations start pouring in... I'm not going to waste my summer refreshing short term charts for day traders. I also need down time, or my charting suffers, so I'm not really seeing a solution....  Maybe I can refresh the page from my laptop, without getting too stressed out about it? We'll see....

Good luck, Traders
AAA 



  




Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Market Update 7/17 - Publc Charts Area Accidentally Deleted

Yesterday, I accidentally deleted the public charts folder, and I'm still trying to get back up to speed.

This occurred around noon EST, when I returned to update the charts - 30 min. after (3009) support on the 1 minute chart broke - only to find the auto-refresh feature not working, and when I went to delete the broken 1 min chart, I must have hit the wrong delete button. Doh!    

If I had access to my Twitter account I would've put an alert out, but I'm still locked out... at least I had a down arrow on the chart, at the open, so no harm no foul.

1. To solve the auto- refresh problem I'm looking fort an app that will refresh the public charts window, when I'm away from my trading desk. I found an addon for FireFox, but it installed a bunch of junk with it, so then I wasted 20 min. trying to remove it.   

2. I'm not sure if the updated 1 min $SPX chart is working, but that should become obvious soon after this mornings opening bell.

There's obvious support at the 3000 level at my pink support line.

  


The sell was on a Trump Tweet, and led by Oil, so I think quant trading programs are to blame....
"Trump, tweet, china, increase, tariffs". The AI ain't too bright; this is old news. Where was the selling last week, when China was reported to have broken their end of the deal again? Why isn't China selling off on their lousy growth numbers?    

I checked the oil charts this morning and although the 50 day ma on BRENT was taken out, we see oil bouncing back this morning. That's something to keep an eye on.

Another thing to keep an eye on is Silver. Several websites - the usual suspects (motley fool and the rest...) - can be found on the web (news), pumping the Silver trade, calling it a "BREAKOUT"? Doesn't look like a breakout to me, but yesterday's buying volume was pretty incredible!





 Regardless of the volume, what I'm seeing is a rejection of the previous trend. The bullish channel is broken, and all it did was retest the lower end of it.  

I'm totally out of time.
Good luck today, AA 














Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Market Update 7/16/2019 - Long Term View

As stated in the previous update: Public Charts are now available at stockcharts.com (linked). The published charts are set to auto-refreshed throughout the day, and updated as needed. If you have a stockcharts account, please vote daily, at the top of the page. Donations are appreciated as always. PayPal link can be found in the top left menu, at 3xtraders.com.

My long term outlook


Today I want to look at some longer term charts, not available in the public charts area.

Looking at the DOW chart below you can see what looks like a broadening, or "expanding triangle pattern" (in black). This pattern is also referred to as a megaphone pattern.

This is one of my favorite patterns, and the one what most bears are defiantly watching.



Looks like the price action pierced the upper pattern line (at the 27,300 level), which doesn't rule out the pattern, in fact it's common for the price action to extend (whipsaw) beyond the boundaries of this type of pattern, or throw over the top of the pattern in wave 5.

This pattern definitely has some traders confused, and down-right scared, and that's evidenced by the way they came in an sold yesterday's open, but most traders are short sighted, and don't understand cyclical markets, let alone Elliott Wave Theory. It would be very odd to see the market sell-off on low summer volume, going into earnings, ahead of a dovish (The) Fed.

Next Chart


The chart below shows the Dow in another megaphone pattern, getting ready to take out the target I set weeks ago, and if I had access to my twitter, I'd embed one of my tweets from around June 1st, where I called the bottom on this market, precisely.



So the market is beginning to look a little toppy, but see the annotations I placed on the chart. This could hold up for a while, build a base above my pink line, and retest the highs weeks from now.
If the first pattern was correct then we could see the price action reverse and whipsaw back to the bottom of the range, but that seems highly unlikely. What's more likely is the market continues to hold up, and retest the highs, going into earning season, and the, The Fed Announcement. I think there's a good chance that's going to be a sell the news event, and an excuse for the bulls to take some profits.  

In the meantime, check out the Russell 2000 $RUT chart I added to the public charts area, yesterday.
Looks like we could see a sector rotation into the $RUT. Not really sure which sector money might come out of, at the moment, but you probably shouldn't be selling a dull market anyhow.

If market conditions change, and the long term chart break, then we'll have to regroup, but until then, enjoy the summer.
AA







   

Monday, July 15, 2019

Market Update 7/15/2018 & The Return Of Live Charting @ StockCharts.com


Exiting News: I'm publishing some of my charts in the public charts area, at StockCharts.com, including the short term (1 min) S&P 500 chart. Here's a link to the Public Charts area: https://stockcharts.com/public/1839526

This was my claim to fame - charting it in real time! Stockcharts has changed the rules, so I longer have, "Hall of  Fame" status there, but it would be nice to get it back. Don't forget to vote, daily! 

The Public charts area will be refreshed on a regular basis intra-day, so not only do you NOT need to pay for charting software... but I'm going to do all the work for you!  

I'll be switching up the public charts as needed: When the 1 min chart quits working, I'll replace it. When the short terms charts break, we'll go to the 30 min chart, and so on. If one sector looks like a better trade, than another, I'll include those charts, and I'll be adding charts as time goes on, so check back on a daily basis, and vote often!   For now we're watching Oil, Natural Gas, and the S&P. If you require a certain sector chart, comment here, or in the public charts area, and I'll try to accommodate you.


To Review Friday's Action:


We almost took out my 2015 target on Friday. If it breaks above there Monday morning, that becomes the st stop.



I'm seeing serious resistance around 3035 - 3050, on the longer term chart, also available in the public charts area.

Wish I had more time this morning, but I have a lot of charting to do.
AA


Friday, July 12, 2019

Market Update 7/12/2019 - Is The Market Rigged?

 Announcement: I've been booted from Twitter again. This time for calling someone a politically incorrect name (retard), after they trolled me yesterday morning. What can I say; I was having a bad day, on little sleep. Twitter is a poorly run platform, so I'm not sure when, or if, I'll get access to my account again. Took 2 weeks last time this happened, but a lot can happen in 2 weeks. In the meantime follow me here, and on LinkedIn. 

I'm thinking about moving to Gab, which is a less politically correct platform, geared to the alt-right. Alt right doesn't mean "racist", as has been widely reported by the fake news media. Alt right is a term used to describe the new right, who rejected the Bush/Clinton NeoCons, the rest of the corrupt political establishment in DC.

I've set up a Gab account, but not sure I like the platform. If you have a gab account you can find me at 3XTraders, but if we see any big market moves, I'll provide an intra-day update here, not that I'm expecting much, and especially on squeeze Friday.  

Short Term Market Update  


Markets continue to break out on light summer volume. When say "markets breakout", I actually mean certain indices... the most watched ones, such as the S&P 500, and the Dow.

To review yesterday's action - on the chart below you can see where the S&P pulled back, and continues to break higher this morning. Short term support becomes the breakout point. Resistance on this chart looks like 3015. If it breaks higher... the next major resistance I'm seeing is around the 3025 level.


Here's another short term view of the $SPX - a 10 min chart. Trend remains up, and will probably remain that way going into July OpEx.
from that point we could see a correction to the 2960, at my lower (hypothetical) channel line. As long as the $VIX continues to be hammered down, this rally can continue, but a word of caution...

The Rigging of Markets by the Banks and others


The New York Stock Exchange chart tells a different story. The $NYSE has not broken out to new all time highs - not by a long-shot - and this bothers me, because any hedge fund (s), with enough money can rig the most watched indices higher, using a handful of stocks, while hammering the $VIX down, and most retail investors won't know it.

If you don't understand how markets are rigged Max Keiser does a good job explaining it in the video (embedded) below. Think of the $VIX as your smoke alarm. As long as that alarm doesn't go off, nobody is alerted to a possible fire.


This rigging of the $VIX has been going on for nearly a decade, and most recently caused the implosion of the Leveraged $VIX bear fund the $SVIX, as I'm covered in previous blogs. Jim Cramer has written extensively about how he used to rig markets, and the banks have had been busted many times rigging markets.

In late 2017 day traders came in every day and bought the $SVXY, in order to hammer down the $VIX, as they squeezed the short sellers on light holiday trading volume, and the end result is plain to see on the chart below. The DOW lost 3000 points in 7 days. You can only manipulate a market for so long.      


The $VIXY is what most floor traders watch, and it's actually trading at an all time low. That would mean there's less fear in the market today, than we've seen since the crash of '08. It's obviously being sold, and this washout to a new low, scares me. I think no long term investor should be long the market at this point, because a sudden reversal in the $VIXY could result in another early 2018 scenario. or worse. 



As long as the $VIX continues to be hammered down this rally can continue, but money needs to come out of safe havens such as Bitcoin, Gold, US Treasuries, and global utilities. Those are your real fear indicators. I'll get more into that in a future update.   

The opening bell rings in 5 min.
Good luck, and have a great weekend.
AA 











Thursday, June 27, 2019

Best Call Of The Month - Major Reversal In BitCoin!

The Top In Bitcoin Tweeted Out Yesterday 

Major Reversal  Confirmed Overnight!



This is no doubt my best call of the month as documented below:




"Do it", refers to shorting bitcoin contracts, which I had tweeted about earlier - and "if I had the means...", I certainly would have...

Here I am mocking the average bitcoin investor, who is so out of touch with the concept of  boom/bust theory, that they probably took me seriously, and remain in denial even today, even after a 10% flash-crash.



Look, this is what a classic major top looks like: Boom, followed by bust, and the hungry herd, left holding the bag. This is exactly what a major top on the broader markets will look like, so don't fall in love with the upside. Once everyone is fully invested, there are no more buyers, only profit taking, and the lack of a bid underneath....   

We've already seen a nice snap-back rally, followed by lower lows on bitcoin. From here the panic can continue for as long as it continues.     

A few Months back I tweeted that the conspiratorial chatter on the internet was that the US Dollar was/ is about to collapse, and although that never happened on Sept 23rd, (as many were predicting at the time), that idea stuck, and gained some steam, going into a more recently Dovish (the) Fed).

Here's Peter Schiff continuing to spreading his negative US Dollar propaganda, on a YouTube channel, as late as yesterday.





This looks like a bad case of mass hysteria to me, and this isn't the first time Schiff has been horribly wrong. He has been calling for the collapse of the US dollar, for as long as I can remember.

In my early career I may have been horribly wrong a few times myself, but I don't continue to beat the same dead horse for 10 years! 

Let's take a quick look at the Gold/ Silver ratio (chart), which my trading warrior brother Dale Pinkert @ForexStopHunter at https://www.forexanalytix.com/ turned me on to, in my last live interview with him. I wasn't quite sure what to do with this chart at the time, but today I see an extreme condition taking place, and that's a red flag! 



What the Gold/ Silver, ratio, chart, is telling me is that Gold is totally over-priced, when compared to Silver, and that something is about to give, and may already be taking place!   

I suspect a collapse of the Gold market follows. Resistance on Gold is 1411 (previous support) spotted on a live 30 min chart, on Tuesday. 1400 is psychological support on Gold, and we see that being tested this morning

Take extra care, when trading currencies, and commodities, Traders
AA


Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Market update 6/18 - Best Call Of The month - The Reversal In Biotech Stocks

It seems like all I use this blog for, anymore, is to declare victory, and today should be no different...

Last week - as the broader market continued to trade mostly sideways, and directionless, I started looking for a sector trade. In gold, gold miners, $SOX, Biotech

While I found a bearish trade in $SOX that worked in my favor, I also identified a bullish pattern in the biotech sector - a bullish inverse Head & Shoulders pattern - as seen on the chart below.

This turned out to be the better trade, as short sellers continue to be squeezed into the summer break, as usual.  

$XBI - Bullish inverse H&S pattern highlighted in purple.


$XBI ended up another 4.74% on Monday, while the 3X leveraged Biotech bull ($LABU) ended up a whopping 14.12%! That's what you call "a good trade", any day of week, and especially on light summer volume. While this rally could continue, I expect to see some consolidation at my red line, and I think it's better to "snipe gains" wherever you see them, in this thinly traded market. 

As far as the broader market is concerned, we've seen very little movement since my last blog update. The $VIX continues to hold up, and the market rallies we've seen so far have been short lived, and
I suspect today's little relief rally on Draghi dovishness will be no different.

Never trust summer rallies. The short sellers continue to cover, and it's too easy for the hedge funds to squeeze the retail short sellers out of one stock/ sector, or another.

This morning I'm reviewing the charts and see the #REIT sector was up nearly 7% on Monday!
This looks like short capitulation, in an illiquid market. This is what you expect to see at a major market top!  

 

We've seem money rushing into 30 year treasuries, and gold, and even Swiss bank accounts. This doesn't give me confidence. The relatively high $VIX remains a cloud over the market, as does the German $DAX - pinned. 


Regardless of my mostly bearish analysis above, we're getting into summer trading, and anything can happen over the next few weeks/ months. We could see the $DAX continue to hold up, and US markets retest the recent highs.

Below you can see the DOW trading into a little upturned triangle pattern - in blue, and bouncing off my stop-hunt - in pink, and OPEX is this week. That alone can hold the market up. But from there I'm still expecting a sharp correction, ahead of the 4th of July.

That's all I got for today, and I have some REIT charts to update this morning.

Follow me on twitter @3XTraders for the latest technical analysis, and real-time updates. 
AA      














Thursday, June 6, 2019

German $DAX continues to lead US markets - Market update 6/6/2019

Something I didn't have time to mention in yesterday's update is that the $DAX has been one of my most reliable leading indicators since the Dec swoon.

$DAX up US equities up. $DAX down US equities follow. This won't always be the case, but as long as Europe remains in focus, this is the one to watch. PIIGS are still a factor. Italy remains in a deep bear market. New media would rather blame Trump, but he's not the cause of the panic buying in bond markets.

Getting to the technicals: Based on the $DAX chart below, I can't see how this rally continues.

I'd say we go back and retest support, at the very least.

 

To make things stupid simple:

1. The $DAX bottom came in in Dec.

2. It rallied into a bullish channel.

3. That trend broke along with the 50 day ma.

4. Now we see it back-testing the bottom of that broken channel. This typically doesn't end well.

For more acurarate Technical Analysis, and you can follow me @3XTraders, and you can donate to help the cause using the link to my PayPal located in the left hand menu on this website
AA  



Wednesday, June 5, 2019

Absolutely Killing It! Kick-Ass Market Update 6/5/2019

It's been around a month since the last update, and since then we've see a nice little pullback to the DOW target I laid out last week, and confirmed on several different charts. Below is a simplified
version of charts you may have seen me tweet out recently. Shows a Doji reversal, at a key Fibonacci target. Stupid simple 







This time I decided not to rely so heavily on patterns on short term charts. I instead relayed on longer term charts, and the bearish pattern on the $VIX. This selloff have been very orderly and the $VIX never even got about 20.



You can see where the $VIX fell out of the bearish triangle yesterday morning, and this caused panic buying, just as I predicted - in another Tweet. Classic reversal.

 But wait there's more!

 

I also called the rally in the Mexican Peso, and the reversal on the $USD. 

 Here I am mocking the Dollar bulls, from my twitter feed - on May 30th


And here's the breakout and back-test of support - at my pink line - spotted on the PESO on May 31st

And below are the results only 2 days later:


We also saw a massive reversal in Gold, and Silver, which I've remained bullish on for the past several weeks

Of course it takes constant vigilance and patience to be right all the time, but the technical charts never cease to amaze me. I think I haven't missed a beat since the January surprise of 2018, when the $VIX bear ETF imploded. Not everything is predictable, but I find most things are...

Market opens in 10 min., so I have to cut this blog short.
Follow me on Twitter for the latest market analysis.    

AA









   






Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Market Update 5/14/2019 - Reviewing the pullback of the past week

Picking up from yesterday's blog.

Something I forgot to mention yesterday, was that I sounded the warning this past Friday May 10th, telling folks to put on protection, because the trend has been to take futures down overnight, and gap the market down the following morning, and that trend continued on Monday, where the market gapped down 50 handles. 


This was a pretty easy call, on a short squeeze Friday. ...way easier than calling the reversal on May 3rd, and this extends my winning streak to 6 days in a row. 

Emerging markets have been leading the way down, as seen on the chart below. Starting from May 3rd - where the financial news networks were seen falsely reporting, "new all time market highs". The $SPX is not a clear representation of the broader market, and this is why don't trust most of what's being reported, I trust the charts, and I chart everything. The $NYSE is not trading anywhere near a new all time high. Most major indices aren't...  

$EEM Chart: You can see on the chart below where the market has gapped down each morning, starting with the bearish lower high on May 3rd. The selling has been very orderly, and thus far this has been easy trading, but will this trend continue? I think not, but since OPEX is just around the corner, I believe we will see a tradeable rally, at least.





The charts have changed:

Long term - the market is still trending up, but all but a few bullish charts are broken, and I have a ton of analysis to do.

This I can tell you: As long as the $VIX remains below 20.50 then the risk-off trade is going to remain off. 2. Odds of a counter trend rally into OPEX is very high. I think we're at or close to a tradeable bottom.

Even looking at the market from a somewhat bearish point of view, we could easily retrace back to. or just above, DOW 26,000. 

The Financial chart I revealed yesterday, is one chart that didn't break, so it'll be interesting to see if that sector can lead the market higher.

Here's the updated chart I blogged yesterday: The breakout point will be the 50 day moving average, so is should be pretty obvious.



  To be honest I've reached the point where I can time markets accurately, and consistently, and once you reach this level, you don't want to give away all your secrets, and that's kind of where I find myself. I get a few donations here and there, but not enough to amount to much. I was thinking about doing a webinar broadcast, or launching a new membership site, but that's going to distract from my work. I'm really not sure where I want to go from here, so I may just take some time off, work on the book, and enjoy the summer.           
AA














Monday, May 13, 2019

Market Update 5/13/2019 - Reviewing last weeks market pullback


 The answer everyone wants to know 

"is this a pullback, or the beginning of a larger correction"?


It's been a while since I've blogged, but I have a couple of announcements, and a critical market update, which requires more room to write than Twitter, or LinkedIn allows.

1. I'm thinking about moving this blog to a new domain, after finding a shiny new "3xtrader" website has popped up on the web, and is diverting google searches from this site. This throws a monkey wrench into everything I've been working on for the past 10 years, as well as future plans for a webinar, or new membership website. It takes time to build name recognition, and this couldn't have happened at a worse time. I'm afraid I may have to start from the ground up, and re-divert traffic...? If you have any thought on this issue, let me know on my twitter feed @3XTraders       

2. I discovered something this week that I would call an epiphany, and I think I've learned more about timing markets, in the past 5 months, than in the previous 5 years! I plan to share these secrets in an upcoming book, or webinar, so stay tuned. I'd like to be able to get this information out quickly, and reach as many traders as possible, but now it seems everything is up in the air.    

3. To get you up to speed on current market conditions 

As most of you probably already know I sounded the warning a few weeks ago, when the $VIX found support just above the 11 level. I said something to the effect that, "unless the $VIX could get below 11, and stay there, then the rally could not continue", and the rest is history.

Thursday we saw fear (as measured by the $VIX) top out around my 23.40 target. That was followed by a perfectly timed reversal, and massive rally into the close.

Friday we retested Thursday's low on the $SPX, on a much lower $VIX, which I alerted to as a "bullish signal", and from there we got another massive rally, off the 50 day moving average.

Whether this rally is sustainable is still debatable, but as long as the $VIX can remain below 20, this rally can, and probably will continue into the summer. Conversely if the 50 day breaks, and $VIX starts breaking out to new recent highs, then selling velocity will increase substantially, but I don't see that, and especially going into short covering season just ahead of the Memorial Day holiday. The bullish trend certainly isn't broken - see the chart below.         

I use many charts and observations to time markets, but the thing to watch is the 50 day moving average, and the $VIX high that was put in last week. This is where we saw sentiment change.

I can't say for sure, we're out of the woods, until fear continues to come out of the market, and the $VIX gets back into a normal range, so remain vigilant. 

I tweet out a lot of free charts on twitter, but here's one you may not have seen. Shows DOW financials trading into what looks like a familiar triangle pattern (in blue), and trading back above 601 support. Maybe we get another pullback around the middle of the summer, or going into the fall, but I expect the broader market and the NASDAQ to trade to new all time highs first.  


Follow me on Twitter @3XTraders, for up to the minute market updates.
AA 



  




Friday, February 8, 2019

Another Market Top Identified; Another Feather In My Cap


I don't have much time to write this morning, so I'm going to try to make this one, as brief as possible. The market is pivotal, and opens in 40 min. My twitter account is back up. Follow me @3Xtraders, for live up to the minute updates, and the best technical charts on the internet.  

To confirm the identification of the most recent market top, and the market reversal, which I predicted a week ago, see the chart below.  and alerted to on my LinkedIn, see the chart below, and the final target marked wave "(E)".

 



You can see that target was taken out on the (updated) chart below, and I've added a red arrow to show where support broke. 



 This $SOX trade highlights the need for a multiple monitor setup, and I only have 3 larger monitors at my disposal. This is one of the reasons I wasn't watching $SOX on Wed., and why I'm asking for
 donations to fund a new monitor setup. You can find the PayPal link to "Tony's Public Charts", if you're interested in supporting the cause.


 As far as the broader market is concerned:

The market is somewhat pivotal here, but the bullish trend remains intact.

   
1. The $VIX broke out on the 5 minute chart, and above the 200 day ma, before coming back down at my red line. Let the $VIX be your guide: a $VIX below the 200 day #NoFear. b. $VIX above the 200 day = more moderate market jitters.
 c. $VIX breakout to a higher high than we saw yesterday, fear, and loathing. d. If the $VIX does break higher, I don't expect it to go above 18, but if it does.... 19 becomes our next red line.

Using the $VIX to measure fear in the market is one of the secrets to my success.

2. Watch the 200 day ma on the DOW. This is also a pivot point. It tested yesterday, and held, and I believe it will do the same today.



I'm out of time.
GL, Traders
AA





Monday, January 28, 2019

Twitter problems continue into day 3

 Followers of this website maybe have noticed that my twitter account has been suspended? Last week, I was locked out of my twitter. 

This, locking me out of my own account was supposedly do to suspected, "automated behavior associated with this account", which never took place.

 Twitter support said that it looked like my account got caught up in their  own automated system and blocked by mistake (ironic), and that they were unlocking my account, yet 3 days later, I still CAN'T gain access...!

Maybe I've been blocked for some other reason? Anyone who speaks the truth now a days is labelled a "conspiracy theorist", and social media platforms are censoring content they don't like. Conservatives are being regularly targeted nowadays, and there's plenty of motive for twitter to want to silence yours truly.    

But getting back to the supposed technical issues: Even if the account is locked, I should at least be able to gain limited access... but the login screen keeps asking me to enter a
"phone number associated with the account", when there is no phone number associated with this account! So, I get an "unsupported phone number" error. 

I've sent then half a dozen requests for help, which automatically triggers an unhelpful automated response, with in instructions on how to "reset your password".

I'll keep trying to get a response from a live person, at twitter support, but I'm not too hopeful at this point.

In the meantime, I've been posting some updates to my LinkedIn, and you're welcome to join me there.

Maybe this is a good time to work on the YouTube channel, and start posting updates there, or maybe move to another platform entirely?  

I'll post further updates a warranted.

Take Care, AA