Monday, November 11, 2019

Market Update - Veteran's Day - 11/11/2019

Seeing a little pullback off my red line on the NASDAQ this morning. Call is a weekly OPEX hangover, after last weeks short covering, into a holiday. Lot's of people took a 4 day weekend, and I may take the day off. I already turned the $VIX alert off, and expecting low volume, and volatility.

So, what's moving this market? Value stocks, as recommended by the racketeers at J.P. Morgan, back in Nov.   See: Shift into value stocks could fuel a solid rally, says J.P. Morgan - Market Watch


I trust the charts, not the crooked bankers, or the corporate owned financial fake news, so let's take a look at this rally in value stocks, as the world burns See: Gerald Celente's analysis of the current trend - already cued up , in the latest Kaiser Report, and The Real Stock Market Is Declining - Investing.com 

$IWX - Russell Top 200 Value ETF - Look pretty much like what we're seeing in the $SPX, resistance at my red line. Also see the bullish channel - in black. Black lines, are always an alternate, or contrarian pattern, and you're going to be seeing more of these, in the public charts area.  I'm calling this a head-fake wave "B", and expecting a tremendous reversal, any day now, and we may have already seen it. Of course, it could hold up for few days, and even retest these levels - a week from now - as saw back in July (for comparison). Tops take a while to form, and with OPEX coming on Friday... stocks will probably hold up a little longer. 

One more thing: Lying CNBC brought someone on, on Friday, to tell us the Transports has broken out to all time highs. Total fabrication. Unless the $TRAN chart - below - looks like an all time new high to you!

$TRAN 



Have a great day,

AA






Friday, November 8, 2019

Market Update 11/8/2019 - Another Rigged Weekly OPEX, Right On Schedule

So much charting this morning! I was up at 3:30 AM thinking about it, and got right to work, but there's a lot going on, and a lot of possibilities here, and the opening bell rings in less than an hour.

I suppose I should continue where I left off, and expose how the financial engineers have managed to manipulate the market higher. Creating one asset bubble after another.

The NASDAQ is being artificially stair stepped up, and I think I want to ditch the 10 min chart, since none of these support levels are valid.  

 NASDAQ: "Stair Stepped Up", Jim Cramer style. I actually hear him brag about this, back when I used to watch his show. I heard
 him say something to the effect that, "I told them it was better to stair step the market (up)". You'll have to ask him, who he's referring to when he says, "them", but I think I know....

$SPX - similar thing going on here. It was just stair stepped above the previous channel.
$QCOM:
After I published my LT chart, I saw CNBC report that $QCOM was almost back to where it was trading in 2000. This is pushing the narrative, "Getting Back To Even", just as I pointed out in yesterday's blog. Perhaps they've been doing this for 20 years, because they seem pretty comfortable talking about it?  


 Speaking of Tech Bubble 2.0 and the cash burn.... See:




The opening bell rang a half hour ago, and it seems like stocks are likely going to remained pinned this weekly OPEX.

No, it was sold, and the fact that they sell every "Trump tweet", also tells me who's running this game. Job #1 - Make Trump look bad. Create china trade fear.

$SPX - Market just found support at my pink line: This is the real time chart located in the public charts area.



$SPX - Looks broken on the 60 min view. Could be the bulls are going to be left holding the bag, waiting for a $SPX 3100 target. Next week should be interesting

Support looks like 3018 - at the breakout point.

Speaking of Manipulation.

$TSLA - Looks like the short sellers are going to remain trapped on this weekly OPEX. I haven't updated this chart for while, but you can see where it broke out. I called the bottom back in June, by the way.

$AMD - the rats will also collect on their Semiconductor pump-job.
$QCOM is being held up above $88 (90).

$NVDA Calls also get paid. It's all about the rigged Options markets, and Tech. 


So the market is going to hold up after all, but I see a possible False Flag coming on the release of the IG report. Anything to protect the corrupt deep state, and change the news cycle. Maybe just a wag the dog, event? Maybe China is working with the deep state, and planning to throw Trump under the buss anyhow. Who knows?

See: 
DiGenova: FISA Report Will Ruin Careers, "People Are Going To Be Indicted" RealClearPolitics

Have a great weekend,

AA  















Thursday, November 7, 2019

Market Update 11/07/19 - Part 2

Picking up where we left off. The $VIX remains elevated (well off the recent lows), so the market is fearful, so I remain fearful.

Getting back to stocks like $BABA (trading in a wave b). That's a little counter-trend rally.
See the wave c target on the chart in part 1 of today's, update. 

Qualcomm: They obviously drove this to a slightly higher high, just in order to squeeze some retail short sellers, but also this look like a  capitulation top in wave 5. They probably think it should trade back to the top of the channel. News Flash; Wave 5 seldom trades to the top of the channel!
Also see my green arrow, where it was driven back above the 2002 high? Read Jim Cramer's new book called, "Getting Back To Even", for more on that trade. So rigged! Even "FAANG" is a scam.
Pump 'n' dump market! 

$SOX - This is a 20 yr chart - we're seeing a little throw-over the top of another triangle. Again pumped above the 2000 high, because hey that's the jester's playbook! Looks bearish as hell. Wish I could add to $SOXS, but I'm already Net short 2 sectors.   

Getting to what's driving Europe, and what's likely going to take it down. Not China Trade, but PIIGS!

Why not make it PFIIGS with a silent P, and include France?! 

Portugal: Totally insolvent, and coming up against resistance at my thin blue line. Of course the world bank can continue to bail them out, with 0% interest, but where does that lead? I think bond traders might know....




FRANCE: Could be a truncated 5th? Anyhow, I don't like the triangle it's traded into, unless it can be confirmed as a bullish continuation pattern. That seems unlikely, no matter how much Macron is willing to suck up to China. See: Europeans look to China as global partner, shun Trump's US

ITALY: 



IRELAND - Sorry I don't have an Ireland Chart.


GREECE: WOW



SPAIN: I'd say, this one looks far worse, than the rest, and if it's going to take out the lower channel, it has a long way to fall.


It's no wonder the bond market, and gold, and the Repo market is blowing up. 

$DJUSFN: Dow Financials. Looks like another throw-over, out the top of an upturned triangle. 


This what it looks like on a 20 year chart. Barely back to even.


That's all I got.

Later,
AA







Market Update 11/07/19 - IMF warns Europe to Prepare for the Worst

Funny, I mentioned just yesterday, that I'm preparing for a grid collapse, and then the IMF warns  Europe to "Prepare for the Worst", but this isn't the first time....  See: Davos 2019: IMF Warns “Prepare For A Serious Slowdown” in Global Economy! thedailycoin.com

 This morning I want to take another look at the $DAX, and the rest of Europe, oh and China! I'm not sure I can accomplish all this in an hour, but let's get to it!

Something I forgot to mention in a previous vlog, is that I nailed the $VIX target precisely, at 12.25. That's like the second time in a month! Tells me it's the dumb money hammering the $VIX, not the financial engineers, who've been driving the $VIX lower, every month, for the past 10+ years. How do I know this? I watch Bernanke brag about the lower volatility in a public hearing. Now the same financial engineers who were ordered to manipulate the market higher, know the whole thing is going to collapse (again), so they lower rates to 0, for grande finale. They have nothing to worry about. They can either sell into the collapse, as they did last time, and I'm sure they've hoarded plenty of gold, just in case of a worse case scenario. Total global financial reset. 

It was the mad jester, Jim Cramer, who coined that phrase, when he called the now infamous "Flash Crash", a mistake. He knew it was not possible for the market to reverse, because I believe he's been in on it. What better public spokes person for the Federal Reserve See: Cramer: Illuminati Not all bad", in his own words.  

And I'm not picking on Cramer. He has a job to do, and the entire network is in on it, I think. The crooked Politicians, main stream media, and the banksters, are all in on the joke.

Yesterday's Trade: Looked weak, as usual. Market futures pumped at the open, followed by flat to sideways. It looked like we might get a continuing pullback, but futures are pointing to a slightly higher high again. 

$EEM - Yesterday's weakness was due in part to the break down of the emerging markets chart. 
You can see on the chart below, where the stop was taken out, but the bulls immediately drove it back up to res. This seems like a desperation move to me; buying the flash-crash. This what they do.
 
$Oil and Energy pulled back at my target. That was a good trade, but I don't have time to track down a pullback target. For a fee maybe....  

China: As usual the financial networks are pushing for a China deal, and the latest rumor is that "tariffs may be rolled back", in part 1 of this deal....  seems to me the market hasn't been pricing in future tariffs, so this looks like this could be a, "sell the news", event. 

I'm going to have to reveal the China chart in another blog, but you can see the Hang Seng breaking out on the chart, located in the pubic charts area.  You also see massive Option buying in $FXI, and Fast Money Traders driving $BABA into a, "triangle of death". lol
$BABA trading into a bearish upturned triangle. Looks like a 191 target, going into OPEX.



$DAX - Germany. I've already revised this pattern to something other than a broadening triangle pattern.  I think, even as powerful as this rally seems, it's not wave 3, but we'll have to see what it does after a pullback.
This chart still needs some work, but it's the best I got.


I had a lot more charts to get in to, but I've run out of time,
AA
P.S.
May do a second update this morning, but in the mean time, 
The $VIX alert remain on, whether it takes out 12.25, or not. We're in the danger zone. 

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Market Update 11/6/2019 - Possible Black Swans

My take on the market: Looks like it's stalling out, right on schedule. Momentum slows going into the final wave, and then it usually takes a while for it to finally roll over, and once it finally does... it's only going to fall back to clear support, and then a suckers rally. Things don't really start moving, until wave 3, and we're a long ways away from that. We could even retest the high on the DOW, and trade flat for a week or 2, so unless there's a black swan, this is going to be a waiting game. See:  Stocks Drift Amid Mixed Earnings; Treasuries Rise: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg

I though this would be a good time to cover, Black Swans. 

Maybe we can test $DOW 27,220 (the breakout point), ahead of November OPEX, next Friday?                                                

Black Swans


Twice now, in the past week, Bloomberg brings on some, clueless, millennial, (bloomberg) contributor, and the Host asked her, "do you see any Black Swans..."?  I don't know if this is some new segment, they're running, in order to set up Trump for a failed China deal - which is the answer she gave - but it's one of  the most ridiculous questions I've ever heard, since "A black swan is an unpredictable event"! 

A failed China Deal is something that's easy to predict, and not a black swan at all; It's more like an excuse to blame Trump for all the problems in the world, instead of doing your job, main stream left wing media! Meanwhile these people can be seen covering up, for pedophile rings, and people like Bill Clinton, and I don't bring up his name, just because he's involved at the center of this.... Yesterday we saw the CEO for McDonald's resign for the same reason, Bill Clinton should've resigned, after he had an inappropriate sexual relationship, with an intern. He could've been a good example, and spared the country such embarrassment, yet today you hear that story reported - even by FOX News - as "The republicans payed a high political price for impeachment".  See:
ABC News anchor admits coordinated cover-up of Jeffrey Epstein rapes by mainstream media; news outlets complicit in repeated child rape crimes - newstarget.com 

Let's update McDonald's 

$MCD - I called the top on this one, a few weeks ago. It was too easy


I See Black Swans

Of course, I see occasionally see black swans coming - in the technical charts - and I have made some uncanny predictions in the past. Some call that ESP, I just call it "intuition", but it's not something I rely on.  I've been predicting an EMP (false flag) attack, for a while now, and something like that could plunge the country, and US Equity markets into total darkness, for several months. Hope I'm wrong on that one, but I continue to prepare for it, the best I can, and so should you.

One prediction I've kept to self over the past year is an increase worker strikes, for economic, and political reasons, and we've seen some of that ramping up around the word. This is what happens when you have too many people competing for too few resources. See:

Australia, is a black swan. Saw that coming, before the chart even topped out, and the bad news continues. This is happening on too many fronts to mention, so you'll have to google search that one. 

Australia is just one example....  PIIGS is another, and I have several more to cover in future blogs. 

I'm running out of time,  but I leave you with this:

Investor complacency is nearly off the chart, and that in itself points to a nasty downside surprise, and a likely black swan.

$VIXY - of course volatility has been manipulated over the past 10+ years, and that's the whole reason this fund was created. If you believe fear is at an all time low, then the chart confirms you're belief, but then you should ask yourself, "why are investors fleeing to long term Treasuries, and Gold, and why is the The FED cutting interest rates?

 
Take Care,
AA

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Market Update 11/5/2019 - Part Two - The Short Squeeze In Energy, and Semis

Picking up where I left off in Part 1

I've already update the Public Charts, bur we're not seeing much movement, as usual. Maybe they down pull the rug out until after OPEX? Just seems odd that the market would continue to hold up, even though the bulls didn't pay for protection, in the options market.
 
We saw the $VIX bounce out of the hole on Monday, but that didn't keep the market from holding up again, held up by Energy, and $SOX.
  

Energy

It was Thursday I called out Oil, and Energy, and then again on Friday, and ever since then it's been screaming to the upside.

$OIH Oil Service Stocks -  Looks like a little wave "A" bullish triangle (seen in blue). Also see where the bid was raised at Monday's open, in order to squeeze the short sellers.

$GUSH up $1.10 (off the pullback level); That's like 45% in 3 days. Not bad.   



Now that we're we're seeing $OIH complete the pattern; I'm expecting it to pull back, and consolidate for a couple weeks.

Semi-conductors  

 $SOX - Think it was Thursday I called out $AMD as a buy, but didn't realize it would go this far!
Ridiculously overbought, above the top of the 10 min channel. I have several chart views of $AMD, since it was one of my favorites going into the end of 2016. It's up 2000%, since then, and looking pretty bad. on my long term charts.   


I added a 30 min $SOX chart to the Public Charts Area this morning, and it looks like it's traded into an up turned triangle, but look at the $SOXS, below.

$SOXS - This is what's being used to drive $SOX higher. They hammer down the $VIX the same way, until it backfires.


 $SOXS - continues to be hammered down in order to help the chips sector 

$SOXS - That manipulation of 3X leveraged funds, has in turn caused $SOX to overshoot the target. Looks like a running wave B.   


The only other pattern I'm seeing on $SOX is a little upturned super-bearish ending diagonal triangle, with a little throw-over above the top... The stop hunt is 1662, if you care to help the bulls take profits, on the way down. 


$NXPI - That bearish wave B in $SOX is confirmed on the $NXPI chart.

We do see certain semis continue to trade at new highs.

$CY - we saw the AI squeeze the shorts into several future weekly options expiration (dates), back in may. This one is sitting right on my stop hunt.


$SOXX - and finally, you got ETF traders, getting ready to sell the top of this bullish channel. But most charts look like an overshoot. 

So, I that covers pretty much everything, and here are a couple little trading tips. Don't get spooked out of your short position, on every higher high.  2. In a major reversal don't take profits too soon.

Take Care, AA  


Market Update 11/5/2019 - Part One - Futures Up

I'm covering several sectors, plus the rigged (futures) broader market. I say rigged, because only futures traders are making money... The trade seems to be: Drive futures up, squeeze out the short sellers, and take profits. Typical trading pattern at a major top. The market hardly moves during the day. It's quite boring, except for the latest big moves in Oil, and Energy. I'll get to that in Part 2, or 3. Semi's are also leading, with $AMD
making a new high yesterday.

We've also seen many upgrades, and that points to a major top. Everybody is bullish at the top.
But they pay no attention, when it comes out that Under Armour, and I suspect many others, have been cooking the books.   

$DAX - breaks out above my red line - as predicted, and takes out the target. We see that high being retested, this morning. This is not a pattern you want to play chicken with, and I'm already adding to my short positions.




 
$RSX - breaks out to new (recent) highs

 Russia - yes Russia! Has also lead this rally on talk of a global peace agreement. That would be a positive Trump story, so that gets buried, as CNBC, and Bloomberg. This is old news, but Trump mentioned it at last nights rally.




 


$TSX - Canada finally joins the party, on higher oil prices. This is bearish pattern, by the way.




Financials lead this rally, so it makes sense that they will lead the sell-off. The $BKX has rallied into a similar (broadening) pattern, as the one above - a broadening triangle. You can find that chart in my public charts area. 

Trump: I Want Russia Back In The G-8 Because I Want "World Peace" RealClearPolitics


Morgan Stanley also seems to be trading in a broadening range.

We saw Berkhshire Hathaway break out, if you can call it that, but I'd watch this one closely. It's still trading in a sideways, regardless of yesterday's short covering. The only reason I checked this one, is because the lying financial fake news said it had made new high, which is hasn't

As far as the little breakouts we're seeing on the DCS charts? Throw-overs (overshoots) are common, in a broadening triangle pattern.

 Until I see markets breakout on a weekly view, and rally on decent volume, I remain bearish.

DOW - "makes an all time high", means nothing to me, except that the MSM is at it again.



If market do happen to break out, you'll be the first to know, and I already have bullish charts I can swap out, but considering, a short squeeze in energy and Oil, lead yesterday's rally, and the $VIX was up? Forgetabout it.

Next update: Part 2 - in an hour, or 2.

Opening bell in 5 minutes,

AA

Monday, November 4, 2019

Market Update 11/4/2019 - $DAX Breaks Out, US Follows

Ran into a SNAFU this morning. Pages not loading. Took me 20 minutes, and a reboot, to correct the problem, but no other surprises this Monday morning, except maybe on the short term charts. Looks like the $SPX is going to break above the top of the channel on the 10 min chart, and I'll get to that in a minute.
German $DAX breaks out above the 12950 level - as predicted on Friday - leading US futures higher. There must be some good news coming. Infrastructure spending maybe? Trade deal? Something's being priced in. 

Energy: We also saw a tremendous rally in Oil & $GUSH, with $WTI crude breaking out back above the 50 day moving average. I've since taken down those chart, and just want to watch it for a few days. I don't chase Friday short-squeezes.      

$SPX - I think I want to ditch the #1 chart, - in the public charts area - the 10 min $SPX chart, for the 15 NASDAQ chart, since big tech is leading the breakout on the DOW. Plus I'm seeing some better patterns on the NASDAQ, so trade the QQQ funds. The $SPQ has the highest exposure to Apple, btw.   

Short the Nasdaq with These Inverse ETFs - ETF News And Commentary


$COMPQ - NASDAQ -  See the ridiculous bullish channel in blue? I don't believe that pattern is relevant, but the bullish channel in black might be....  This sets up for a nice pullback ahead of Nov. OPEX, and maybe we can rally into Black Friday, since we're getting close to short covering season.       


I've run out of time.
Good luck,
AA







Friday, November 1, 2019

Market Update 11./01/2019 - The BIG REVEAL

 The BIG REVEAL

 

I could write 3 blogs this morning, with so much going on... and I still have to take another look at the oil charts, but I'm going to try to keep this short.

Jobs report comes out this morning. That will probably give the bulls the green light they're looking for. Any excuse to drive stocks higher, and then exit.... that why you see Apple up, on bad earning. They can't wait to squeeze the shorts, and get out.   

[updated in real time] The fake Jobs report just smashed expectations, so the st trend on the $SPX chart continues. Maybe we can even breakout above 3050 on this Short Squeeze Friday, as I predicted on the real time chart yesterday. BUT, the market continues to struggle, as we get closer and closer to resistance - as seen on the longer term charts - and every rally sold. I think the $VIX could touch 12 - 12.25, but this kind of complacency won't last. Watch the #1 chart in the public Charts area, for $VIX alerts, and for the st trend to break. No doubt, it's not the smart money chasing the bullish trend, on a 10 min chart, on an extremely oversold $VIX.    

Yesterday's trade, looked like holiday trading, and many folks took a half day off on Halloween...  ,BUT right out of the gate a Trump tweet was sold, and market futures ahead of it. Somebody knew something. It's no conspiracy, that hundreds of insiders know whatever news is coming, before you hear it reported on Bloomberg. This is why I trust the $VIX, over news reports.

It was a little spooky, seeing the $VIX breakout slightly, and buyers not step up, but I attribute that to the fact that nobody was short. When every is short, that's when you see some of the biggest rallies, off support, yet yesterday was dull. Reminder: "NEVER sell a dull market"

The Energy trade didn't work. That was obvious, from the start, so no loss. $OIH did bounce out of the hole at one point, but remained trapped in a very narrow bearish channel, you'll see on the chart located in the Public Charts Area. I'll leave that $OIH and the $GUSH chart up, because we could still see a little breakout...

$OIH - This is a 2 hour view, and it's sitting just below resistance @ 11.13. It's also trading at the lower end of my blue channel, so we could definitely see a breakout to the 11.45 level. Could still be a decent trade. 


I see a sweet commodity trade here, but you people don't help support the cause, so I'm going to keep it to myself. If you want to make a ton of money, in a volatile market, then make a $30 donation to my PayPal, and I'll be happy to share. Donate $100, and I'll provide you with weekly updates for an entire month. I hate this way, but I've had traders tell me, "cover FOREX" (for instance), and maybe I'll start donating...." Look, I wasn't born yesterday, and you get what you pay for. If you want certain charts in the Public charts area, or personal service, then help support the cause.    

OIL: I can tell you, that Oil has traded to the bottom of the pattern - on this 5 minute view - and will probably get a nice bounce here. See where it bounced at my blue down-arrow? BOOM!


The BIG REVEAL: 


As you know I've used the $DAX as a leading indicator over the past year, and it's worked like a charm. $DAX up = US futures up. Thursday's relief rally on the FOMC statement, was the exception.... and why if the $DAX leading global markets? Because everyone knows that Germany is at risk of collapsing, when PIIGS no longer fly, and that may be the catalyst for the next financial collapse, and I'll show you what PIIGS are doing in another blog. What Does PIIGS Mean? - Investopedia 
 

You've probably seen one of my st $DAX charts, but I've held most of them close to my chest...

$DAX  - This is a shorter term view, and the trend is as clear, as the recent breakout above my pink support line. You also see the reversal out of the bullish pattern, back in August.


Now for The really BIG Reveal!

3 Year $DAX - I wish I had more time to update this chart, but I have removed most the bearish indicators on this chart, just so that it's not so cluttered. You'll see my #1 chart - located in the public charts area get very messy at times. You want to know what moves markets, study all the technical indicators on this chart. Support at the moving averages, and breakouts at my trend lines, and other technical indicators.

Now we see a capitulation top forming, and some resistance at the 2017 high. I suspect this broadening pattern (seen in maroon) is a primary wave (B). It could be primary wave A, in a much larger bearish pattern, but either way, there's a big correction coming, and US markets will follow.

When: I think the price action will probably break above my red line, but it may fall short of the top of the pattern. There is a chance it could briefly throw over to the top of the pattern, before reversing, but I see the final target on these type of patterns fall short all the time.

This morning we see it bouncing off support at my pink stop-hunt, and US equities up, of course.
The Jobs number is just an excuse to squeeze some shorts on a Friday.
 

[Edited]

This Update has run way past the opening bell, but I had to put some final touches on the above chart, update the live chart, and take a break, because let's face it this job comes with a lot of stress.

 Oil Services: You missed the boat there, but I right nevertheless. 


 $SPX - went exactly where I predicted, yesterday, and breaking out above the 3050 level. BOOM!
Sell, here and wait for the crash, or more likely, this will hold up into Monday. 


 Have a great weekend,
AA









 


Thursday, October 31, 2019

Market Update 10/31/2019 - The Trick or Treat Trade, & The Big Reveal!

Here we go again - the financial fake news if blaming Trump for the tiny pullback we're seeing in pre-market. Can you imagine the chaos they could create, if the entire market collapses on Trumps watch? The, "I told you so's", will be coming out of the woodwork! 

Bloomberg is also reporting on the California fires, something they have ignored for several weeks. Why now? Which came first the chicken, or the egg; the negative news, or the negative futures??
Why not report on the wild fires around the globe, and Eco collapse in Australia, and South America? What about the South African swine flue epidemic sweeping Asia, crop failures, and skyrocketing food prices?     

They're also talking down oil, calling this little dip, a big roll over!? Calling BS on that! This is where I think they're setting the bear trap, for the Trick or Treat Trade.  I don't believe I've seen the market sell off on Halloween, because it's kind of a holiday; traders take their kids trick or treating, and there are a lot of Halloween parties... It's a good excuse to cover your shorts, and take the day off. 

Of topic: Yesterday, I heard someone on CNBC (I think it was? I don't pay too much attention...) trying to downplay the affect, an Elizabeth Warren win might have on markets (estimated to be -25%).... and she pointed to the Trump rally, pontificating, that if markets were wrong on Trump, then markets may be wrong on Warren. That's the most absurd pontification I've heard in a while! Capitalism, and deregulation vs Socialism? lol Granted, Warren wouldn't get one measure passed, that Wall Street isn't on board with, because Congress is bought and paid for, but still....        

Yesterday's Trade on the FOMC announcement:

I didn't think they would cut, but it's a good thing they did, or we might have seen another taper tantrum. 

$SPX continued higher after the The Fed announcement which was expected.... I had already raised the short term target, and the breakout was obvious. It looked like some retail bears tried to sell the news, but that failed miserably, and soon they were squeezed out at a new intra-day high. It was an easy trade, given the way the $VIX was driven to new recent lows. Always trust the $VIX. No $VIX strength = no fear.   

Here's what it looked like on a 1 min chart - pullback to support, rally to a higher high. 



 Psychological target of 3050. Funny I was just talking about psychological targets containing a "5", yesterday. In numerology the number 50 means grace, as a gift, or grace period, and it is...

$GOLD: We also saw a little shakeout in gold, followed by a nice rally back above support, if you were watch the $GLD chart, located in the public charts area, but that trade scares me, and it has to be watched like a hawk, and I already have too much on my plate. 

The Big Reveal:
 

I have to get to the Trick or Treat trade, so I'll do The Big Reveal tomorrow. I'm plan to publish the chart that has kept me on the right side of the trade, since the bottom near the beginning of the year, and anyone who's been following me for any length of time, knows my record.

Don't miss it, because fear is about to return in a BIG WAY, very shortly.

 Energy: This is where I expect to find the Trick or Treat Trade, and the fake news has already set the bear trap.

Of course watch $WTI crude: Not sure oil is going to lead oil producers, but it makes sense...


 $OIH - Oil producers. I really like this set up. It's a little pullback to a higher low.

You could buy this fund for $11, or trade the 3X Leveraged Fund (GUSH), depending on your risk tolerance.
Usually I use a pink line for support, but you'll see it in purple. Could see a little shakeout, before the breakout, but I haven't checked futures. 



$GUSH - not sure if this rally will continue for more than a day, but I see a possible breakout pattern, and we could see short covering in the energy sector continue into Thanksgiving.

$XOM - I suggest you watch this one. Remember when I hated it, back when CNBC was pushing it? Well, now I'm lovin' it!

 The only other bullish trade I see is in $AMD, and if you're short Semi's you could hedge yourself with some of that, so getcha-some-a-dat!

Dammit Stockcharts site just crashed, and I'm outta time.

Maybe I'll add that $AMD chart to the Public Charts area, and I'll alert to that...

I'll also be added the $OIH....

Good luck,
AA


s

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Market Update 10/30/2019 - $SPX 3500 The Hard Way

I know what you're thinking; "he's turned bullish. This is great!" No, not quite, but there is a way to get to 3500 - the hard way.

$SPX 3500 target - 20 yr chart - I've already added this chart to the Public Charts area - second to last chart. I had to dig deep on this one. The chart is self explanatory, but I've added a few annotations, as well as some critical (future) support levels. Targets tend to overshoot, and $SPX 3500 is a good psychological target - anything with a "5" in it. 2500, 29,999.95 (hint hint),

  

I don't like the idea of retesting the high 2 more times, in the the next 4 years, or even trading the moves within the upturned ending diagonal triangle (in wave 5 of a powerful wave 3), but I suppose it's better than seeing the market collapse next year, which was my previous long term outlook.    

Speaking of bullishness: If you happened to see the Fast Money Halftime Show yesterday? They had some perma-bull on, who was just making outrages predictions... It was just funny as hell to see experienced traders like Dr. J. Najarian, and Joey Terranova, sit there and listen with straight faces ....Poker faces, I'd say. Aayhow...

Short term - trend remains up, after hitting the top of the range yesterday.

$SPX - I like this 15 min chart better than the one in the public charts area, so I'm going to swap out the one that's in there. What looks like a contracting triangle on the other view, looks more like a parallel channel on this one - seen in blue of course. If the trend continues, the next breakout point would be above the black line, and then the 3050 level becomes support, or the stop-hunt. I'm not going to make a prediction going into the Fed, but usually you'll see the $VIX sell off, when uncertainty is removed. IF however, we see the $VIX breakout above the 14.50 level, that would be enough to trigger the risk off trade. Yesterday we saw the $VIX hammed at the 13.50 level, and I'll continue to provide $VIX alerts on the #1 chart.  

I still haven't found the time to finalize the new Legend, for the Public Charts Area. Maybe today... as this market seems to be waiting for Chairman Powell to do another helicopter drop.

Re: The Public Charts Area 


Chart rotation - the switching up of the charts in the Public Charts Area:

1. When a chart is no longer working, or I find I have a better one, I'll replace the chart. See the 15 min chart above.

2. When the short term chart breaks, we'll go to a longer term chart view (30 - 60 - DCS). I usually try to put an alert in the annotations, before removing a chart, so refresh the #1 chart on page 1 often, when volatility is high. This - #1 chart - is where you'll find my real time notifications, until, and unless, I get my Twitter account working again. Twitter customer support is non-existent, so don't hold your breath....

Don't rely on down arrows, or my annotations, for buy/ sell signals:

You're better off studying my chart, and knowing where key support, and res. levels are, and trading them accordingly, than waiting for some kind of alert from me. I don't have time for that, and it's up to you to learn how to trade technical levels. For Instance: I can point to a perfect Fib retracement, and put a down arrow on it, but it's up to you to cover your short, or even go long, when that indicator fails. That just happened last week, on the $GBP chart, and once it broke out past the FIB replacement, it was seen pressing the next level of resistance.

$GBP - Since I just mentioned it, and used it as an example - here's an update on the British Pound - still waiting for that pullback to the 200 day ma. This is what typically happens after a big move. Also see gold trading flat, after a big move, just as I predicted... months ago? Don't be a bad holder, go trade something else.


That brings me to my 3rd point:

3. The Public Charts are switched up according to what's moving. For Example, if the market is trading flat, but biotech, or Oil, or something else is moving, I'll add the chart, and we'll trade that. Why waste your summer waiting for the $RUT to move 15 handles?

$RUT: Speaking of the $RUT it continues to snap-back from an extremely (st) over-sold condition, which I alerted to in the public charts area last month... But for some unknown reason, my RUT chart, stopped updating, and I had to take the chart down. I don't like the $RUT anyhow. I don't trade it. I don't trade a lot of things, I cover - for example FOREX. Maybe some day....

$RUT - Are stocks really trading at all time highs, or getting ready to crash again? This doesn't look like a continuing bull market to me. More like BS. Trade what you see, not what you hear on TV.



Update Canada: I don't trade this either, but I mentioned it last week, and it's since traded in to a sideways pattern. What's wrong with this directionless zombie market?



$GRUB - I'm running out of time, and promised to show you where Gruphub, broke technical support.  This is typically what happens when the bullish trend breaks.
Thank goodness I didn't buying into the apparent down-turned triangle, but I seldom trade individual stocks. I kind of like this one around the 31.50 level. Might be a good stocking=stuffer, if you're willing to wait for a snap-back rally in the spring. It's going to take weeks, months, for options to turn, positive again imho

I missed the opening bell, 5 minutes ago, putting the final touches on this one, so I gotta run!

GL, AA