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Friday, November 29, 2019

Market Update 11/29/2019 - Black Friday

Funny: in a blog last week I called Black Friday, "Good Friday", and I'm still meaning to correct that mistake.  

 CNBC was seen - Wed. - trying to sell the idea that the busiest shopping day of the year - Good Friday - "doesn't matter...."? Then the host talks about how he's going to go on line Cyber Monday, and run up his credit card, as Cramer tries to convince companies that unless they, "invest in technology", they will be left by the wayside. Is it any wonder tech continues to retest the highs, when investors are sold this bill of goods every day?

Dumb Money: I think the rise of the FREE TRADING platform has also drawn in a lot of retail bulls, now that you can open an account with no minimum, and free commissions. See: Thousands of Americans Are Signing Up to Trade Stocks for Free. Here's What to Do Instead -


Dow Tech $DJUSTC - I've been struggling to find the pattern on this chart for a while, because there is no bullish pattern, yet this index continues to break higher. Looks like it's been pumped over the top of the upper pattern line in order to squeeze the shorts out. Of course this is being reporting as a bullish breakout, and of course the retail investor doesn't know any better. I also most the folks who read this blog, don't know what a running wave B is either, but I see a downside - wave C target - of just below 1500, at the lower end of the broadening range.

Is this the top?

I think there's a good chance we saw the top on Friday, and I put out some alerts, but it could hold up for a little while. Watch for the $VIX target I mentioned in Wednesday's blog to be sold, before it breaks out. Watch the DOW 28k level, since it's continued to hold for 2 days.

If buying starts accelerating to the upside, which I think is unlikely, then we'll have to regroup.

$SPY took out my upside target on Wed.

$SPX 10 min chart looks very toppy. This morning support is being bought at the 3144 level. Looks like a broadening top pattern - seen in black, and wave 5 doesn't normally test the top of the channel - seen in blue. Could this be a bullish 5 wave move? Sure, and it may also may only be wave "3" in that broadening pattern, as seen below, on chart #2.     

$SPX #2 - See the lower end of the broadening pattern just above 3100 support. That's the level to watch.

Longer term support is DOW 27,200 @ the 50 day.

I've decided not to cover stocks in the public charts area. You can watch my twitter for free stock picks, but I just don't have time to follow up on everything I put out there. 

That's about it. Today is only a half day of trading, so don't expect much.

Catch you next week,

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