Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Market Update 11/5/2019 - Part Two - The Short Squeeze In Energy, and Semis

Picking up where I left off in Part 1

I've already update the Public Charts, bur we're not seeing much movement, as usual. Maybe they down pull the rug out until after OPEX? Just seems odd that the market would continue to hold up, even though the bulls didn't pay for protection, in the options market.
 
We saw the $VIX bounce out of the hole on Monday, but that didn't keep the market from holding up again, held up by Energy, and $SOX.
  

Energy

It was Thursday I called out Oil, and Energy, and then again on Friday, and ever since then it's been screaming to the upside.

$OIH Oil Service Stocks -  Looks like a little wave "A" bullish triangle (seen in blue). Also see where the bid was raised at Monday's open, in order to squeeze the short sellers.

$GUSH up $1.10 (off the pullback level); That's like 45% in 3 days. Not bad.   



Now that we're we're seeing $OIH complete the pattern; I'm expecting it to pull back, and consolidate for a couple weeks.

Semi-conductors  

 $SOX - Think it was Thursday I called out $AMD as a buy, but didn't realize it would go this far!
Ridiculously overbought, above the top of the 10 min channel. I have several chart views of $AMD, since it was one of my favorites going into the end of 2016. It's up 2000%, since then, and looking pretty bad. on my long term charts.   


I added a 30 min $SOX chart to the Public Charts Area this morning, and it looks like it's traded into an up turned triangle, but look at the $SOXS, below.

$SOXS - This is what's being used to drive $SOX higher. They hammer down the $VIX the same way, until it backfires.


 $SOXS - continues to be hammered down in order to help the chips sector 

$SOXS - That manipulation of 3X leveraged funds, has in turn caused $SOX to overshoot the target. Looks like a running wave B.   


The only other pattern I'm seeing on $SOX is a little upturned super-bearish ending diagonal triangle, with a little throw-over above the top... The stop hunt is 1662, if you care to help the bulls take profits, on the way down. 


$NXPI - That bearish wave B in $SOX is confirmed on the $NXPI chart.

We do see certain semis continue to trade at new highs.

$CY - we saw the AI squeeze the shorts into several future weekly options expiration (dates), back in may. This one is sitting right on my stop hunt.


$SOXX - and finally, you got ETF traders, getting ready to sell the top of this bullish channel. But most charts look like an overshoot. 

So, I that covers pretty much everything, and here are a couple little trading tips. Don't get spooked out of your short position, on every higher high.  2. In a major reversal don't take profits too soon.

Take Care, AA  


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