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Friday, November 1, 2019

Market Update 11./01/2019 - The BIG REVEAL



I could write 3 blogs this morning, with so much going on... and I still have to take another look at the oil charts, but I'm going to try to keep this short.

Jobs report comes out this morning. That will probably give the bulls the green light they're looking for. Any excuse to drive stocks higher, and then exit.... that why you see Apple up, on bad earning. They can't wait to squeeze the shorts, and get out.   

[updated in real time] The fake Jobs report just smashed expectations, so the st trend on the $SPX chart continues. Maybe we can even breakout above 3050 on this Short Squeeze Friday, as I predicted on the real time chart yesterday. BUT, the market continues to struggle, as we get closer and closer to resistance - as seen on the longer term charts - and every rally sold. I think the $VIX could touch 12 - 12.25, but this kind of complacency won't last. Watch the #1 chart in the public Charts area, for $VIX alerts, and for the st trend to break. No doubt, it's not the smart money chasing the bullish trend, on a 10 min chart, on an extremely oversold $VIX.    

Yesterday's trade, looked like holiday trading, and many folks took a half day off on Halloween...  ,BUT right out of the gate a Trump tweet was sold, and market futures ahead of it. Somebody knew something. It's no conspiracy, that hundreds of insiders know whatever news is coming, before you hear it reported on Bloomberg. This is why I trust the $VIX, over news reports.

It was a little spooky, seeing the $VIX breakout slightly, and buyers not step up, but I attribute that to the fact that nobody was short. When every is short, that's when you see some of the biggest rallies, off support, yet yesterday was dull. Reminder: "NEVER sell a dull market"

The Energy trade didn't work. That was obvious, from the start, so no loss. $OIH did bounce out of the hole at one point, but remained trapped in a very narrow bearish channel, you'll see on the chart located in the Public Charts Area. I'll leave that $OIH and the $GUSH chart up, because we could still see a little breakout...

$OIH - This is a 2 hour view, and it's sitting just below resistance @ 11.13. It's also trading at the lower end of my blue channel, so we could definitely see a breakout to the 11.45 level. Could still be a decent trade. 

I see a sweet commodity trade here, but you people don't help support the cause, so I'm going to keep it to myself. If you want to make a ton of money, in a volatile market, then make a $30 donation to my PayPal, and I'll be happy to share. Donate $100, and I'll provide you with weekly updates for an entire month. I hate this way, but I've had traders tell me, "cover FOREX" (for instance), and maybe I'll start donating...." Look, I wasn't born yesterday, and you get what you pay for. If you want certain charts in the Public charts area, or personal service, then help support the cause.    

OIL: I can tell you, that Oil has traded to the bottom of the pattern - on this 5 minute view - and will probably get a nice bounce here. See where it bounced at my blue down-arrow? BOOM!


As you know I've used the $DAX as a leading indicator over the past year, and it's worked like a charm. $DAX up = US futures up. Thursday's relief rally on the FOMC statement, was the exception.... and why if the $DAX leading global markets? Because everyone knows that Germany is at risk of collapsing, when PIIGS no longer fly, and that may be the catalyst for the next financial collapse, and I'll show you what PIIGS are doing in another blog. What Does PIIGS Mean? - Investopedia 

You've probably seen one of my st $DAX charts, but I've held most of them close to my chest...

$DAX  - This is a shorter term view, and the trend is as clear, as the recent breakout above my pink support line. You also see the reversal out of the bullish pattern, back in August.

Now for The really BIG Reveal!

3 Year $DAX - I wish I had more time to update this chart, but I have removed most the bearish indicators on this chart, just so that it's not so cluttered. You'll see my #1 chart - located in the public charts area get very messy at times. You want to know what moves markets, study all the technical indicators on this chart. Support at the moving averages, and breakouts at my trend lines, and other technical indicators.

Now we see a capitulation top forming, and some resistance at the 2017 high. I suspect this broadening pattern (seen in maroon) is a primary wave (B). It could be primary wave A, in a much larger bearish pattern, but either way, there's a big correction coming, and US markets will follow.

When: I think the price action will probably break above my red line, but it may fall short of the top of the pattern. There is a chance it could briefly throw over to the top of the pattern, before reversing, but I see the final target on these type of patterns fall short all the time.

This morning we see it bouncing off support at my pink stop-hunt, and US equities up, of course.
The Jobs number is just an excuse to squeeze some shorts on a Friday.


This Update has run way past the opening bell, but I had to put some final touches on the above chart, update the live chart, and take a break, because let's face it this job comes with a lot of stress.

 Oil Services: You missed the boat there, but I right nevertheless. 

 $SPX - went exactly where I predicted, yesterday, and breaking out above the 3050 level. BOOM!
Sell, here and wait for the crash, or more likely, this will hold up into Monday. 

 Have a great weekend,


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