Friday, November 22, 2019

Market Update 11/22 Holiday Trading

Charting a bunch of sectors this morning, trying to sniff out our next volatile trade.

$SPX looks like it's going to hold the 3100 level, going into holiday shopping, so they can continue to inflate the consumer credit bubble. This economy is build on debt, debt, and more debt. At this rate, the national debt can easily reach 70 trillion in the next few years, and that debt isn't going to be passed down to anyone's  grandchildren. That's a fairy tale. Instead watch for a reset, and a new digital currency.      

$SPX - 1 min chart added to the public charts area yesterday afternoon: Found this bearish a-b-c pattern going into yesterday's close. Looks like another short squeeze Friday. Maybe it even breaks out to a new high, but I doubt it.

Financials - trade into a parallel channel: I've removed the $BKX (zombie banking index) - from the public charts area - but plan to replace it with this crazy looking DOW financials chart. This pattern scares me, because it's not a bullish channel. It could be part of a broadening top pattern, but I'm not finding one. I suspect that the entire rally off the 2018 low, is a bearish primary wave (B), and if that's the case then we should see a powerful wave C take back all those gains. You can see it's already reversed, and tested my thin blue line. I think the only thing holding it up is light trading volume. Like I said, a week or 2 ago, financials should lead.... 


 $BKX - I do see a broadening pattern on this chart, and wave E is a panic wave, but we could see this hold up into the end of the year, and crash in the spring.

 Not sure it can retest these highs, but it set's up for a nice Santa Clause rally into the end of the year, anyhow.

$XLF - a lot of idiots trade this ETF, and I can show you exactly where they're going to stop out. Also looks like a broadening top, which is never good.



Yesterday we saw Oil ($USO) gap up above the 200 day moving average, and break out to a 2 month high, squeezing the retail short sellers out, ahead of the holiday, which is basically from now until next Tuesday. And this is why I always warn people not to sell a dull market.  If you bought that break out, at yesterday's open, you're a monster trader. Congratulations~

Charting oil is a lot of work, and too much of a distraction, when trying to time the broader market, and charting several other sectors, while suffering from a bad case of insomnia, so I had removed the Oil, and energy charts - from the public charts area. This doesn't look like a sustainable rally anyhow, unless $BRENT can breakout.
$BRENT - up against serious resistance


Gold miners is another difficult trade, and gold even more-so, but things are bound to be pretty slow next week, and I'm looking for some volatility, somewhere. 
We're seeing the $GDM sell-off at resistance. Gold is sitting right on the stop-hunt, on the long term chart, and this is usually not a good time of year to own gold.

Warning: The 3X gold miner ETF's are among the most volatile funds of all. 30% daily moves are not uncommon. Go go, "all in". on these, ever.       

$NUGT - Using this chart as a contrarian indicator, and a hypothetical breakout above 29 as a stop on $DUST - That's right, we're going to use the 3X miner bull, as a contrarian chart.
$NUGT -


$DUST - The dust chart isn't much help. It's been trading in a range for months.


The Leveraged funds actually track the $GDX, which just broke below the 50 day, if you want to use that as a stop. That's up to you.


$SOX should get a nice dead cat bounce right here - off my pink line, but I would've hold it overnight:

I see some bullish stock picks coming up, like a gap full on $TXN, and I'll be adding more.
It looks like it's already off the to races.

Gotta run. Have a great weekend!
AA

 

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