Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Market Update 11/6/2019 - Possible Black Swans

My take on the market: Looks like it's stalling out, right on schedule. Momentum slows going into the final wave, and then it usually takes a while for it to finally roll over, and once it finally does... it's only going to fall back to clear support, and then a suckers rally. Things don't really start moving, until wave 3, and we're a long ways away from that. We could even retest the high on the DOW, and trade flat for a week or 2, so unless there's a black swan, this is going to be a waiting game. See:  Stocks Drift Amid Mixed Earnings; Treasuries Rise: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg

I though this would be a good time to cover, Black Swans. 

Maybe we can test $DOW 27,220 (the breakout point), ahead of November OPEX, next Friday?                                                

Black Swans


Twice now, in the past week, Bloomberg brings on some, clueless, millennial, (bloomberg) contributor, and the Host asked her, "do you see any Black Swans..."?  I don't know if this is some new segment, they're running, in order to set up Trump for a failed China deal - which is the answer she gave - but it's one of  the most ridiculous questions I've ever heard, since "A black swan is an unpredictable event"! 

A failed China Deal is something that's easy to predict, and not a black swan at all; It's more like an excuse to blame Trump for all the problems in the world, instead of doing your job, main stream left wing media! Meanwhile these people can be seen covering up, for pedophile rings, and people like Bill Clinton, and I don't bring up his name, just because he's involved at the center of this.... Yesterday we saw the CEO for McDonald's resign for the same reason, Bill Clinton should've resigned, after he had an inappropriate sexual relationship, with an intern. He could've been a good example, and spared the country such embarrassment, yet today you hear that story reported - even by FOX News - as "The republicans payed a high political price for impeachment".  See:
ABC News anchor admits coordinated cover-up of Jeffrey Epstein rapes by mainstream media; news outlets complicit in repeated child rape crimes - newstarget.com 

Let's update McDonald's 

$MCD - I called the top on this one, a few weeks ago. It was too easy


I See Black Swans

Of course, I see occasionally see black swans coming - in the technical charts - and I have made some uncanny predictions in the past. Some call that ESP, I just call it "intuition", but it's not something I rely on.  I've been predicting an EMP (false flag) attack, for a while now, and something like that could plunge the country, and US Equity markets into total darkness, for several months. Hope I'm wrong on that one, but I continue to prepare for it, the best I can, and so should you.

One prediction I've kept to self over the past year is an increase worker strikes, for economic, and political reasons, and we've seen some of that ramping up around the word. This is what happens when you have too many people competing for too few resources. See:

Australia, is a black swan. Saw that coming, before the chart even topped out, and the bad news continues. This is happening on too many fronts to mention, so you'll have to google search that one. 

Australia is just one example....  PIIGS is another, and I have several more to cover in future blogs. 

I'm running out of time,  but I leave you with this:

Investor complacency is nearly off the chart, and that in itself points to a nasty downside surprise, and a likely black swan.

$VIXY - of course volatility has been manipulated over the past 10+ years, and that's the whole reason this fund was created. If you believe fear is at an all time low, then the chart confirms you're belief, but then you should ask yourself, "why are investors fleeing to long term Treasuries, and Gold, and why is the The FED cutting interest rates?

 
Take Care,
AA

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