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Friday, November 15, 2019

Maket Update 11/15/2019 - "So, You're Telling Me There's A Chance...?"

 I had a really interesting blog planned: I was going to document the fact that every time I blog something, it seems like breaking news follows. For example: Yesterday - 1. "Nancy Pelosi says a USMCA trade deal breakthrough could be ‘imminent’ CNBC 2. Day before - Donald Trump Jr comes on FOX News and uses my exact words - "Career Government Bureaucrats" -  to describe the 2 witnesses in the congressional democrats mock Impeachment show trial. I don't don't have a link for that, but I watched it live.  
I could give you countless examples of these strange - ESP like - occurrences... they seem to happen the most when I'm stressed, or short on sleep. There's something to it, that can't be easily explained, but I'll save it for the book.   

Yesterday's breakout

$SPX - broke out about the time I shut the computer down, and laid down for a much needed 2 hour nap. Anyone with a short term chart saw it coming, and it was confirmed when the $VIX broke support.

$SPX one min. chart - clear breakout. You could see where support held on the 60 min chart, located in the public charts area, and I did put out a $VIX alert.  

 I would return the short term chart to the public charts area, but as far as I can tell, there's not much interest in day trading my charts, and I have bigger fish to fry than catching another 10 handle on the SPX.

We also saw the $TSX break out to a new high, and back-test support, so good things must be happening behind the scenes.

$DAX up = US equities up, Short Squeeze Friday, the usual BS, although I'm right again.

DOW continues to retest the highs, as predicted again yesterday... could make 15 more "all time highs", as the headlines continue to draw more dumb money in.   

 So You're Telling Me There's A Chance 

 Yeah, I suppose there's a chance that the market explodes higher in what looks like, it could be, a wave 3 (see the alt: channel in black). That's a 30k+ target btw. Nice round number. Breaks out and holds the top of the channel, which, in hindsight, is exactly what the *$SOX did, but on a much larger scale, back in 2016.

*$SOX - See the breakout above the top of the channel, in 2016. Then it held the top of the channel going into the end of 2018. Of course this looks like the end of the road for $SOX, and tech with it, and I'm already seeing many DOW components overshooting targets on a 20 year chart view.

For Example:

$WMT See the bearish weekly candle? See it overshoot the upper trend line? That scares me.

I know what the financial engineers have in mind, and I can find a bullish channel, that corresponds to a bullish wave 3, on the 2 hour chart DOW chart, but I can't see how they pull it off.

I can see several Dow components - $XOM, McDonald's,Walgreens, Merck, and even Nike - leading the DOW but too many have already run too far, and too fast, maybe that has to do with the plunge protection team coming in where they really didn't need to... Support at the 2018 was low was already pretty obvious. Then the The Fed capitulates to the crybaby's on Wall Street, and comes in an lowers interest rates. I don't trust the rigged market, or the lying financial news networks. 

I'm not really seeing a crash here, but probably a much bigger correction than most people are expecting.   

Still I think we'll see a nice bounce off the target (s) I laid out yesterday, and then we'll see what comes next. It's always funny when traders ask me, "what's your time line". The market trades on it's own timeline. AI controls the market, and drives options market, months in advance. I don't think humans are cleaver enough to pull off a day like this, with so many stocks trading at all time highs, on an Options expiration, 2 weeks before the Thanks Giving Holiday. It's an amazing thing to see, and must be exciting for the bulls, but there will be profit taking ahead of the Holidays, I think.

December OPEX is Dec. 20, 5 days before Christmas, so mark that down on your calendar! That might be the set up for a nice Santa Claus Rally. 

Take Care, and have a great weekend,

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