Friday, August 23, 2019

Short Covering Rallies & Capitulation Tops

For key support/ resistance, and breakout targets, on the $SPX, and the $VIX, see yesterdays Market Update. I'm seeing futures down only slightly, at the moment - on some of the worse news to come out of China in a long time - but it seems like squeezing the short sellers, into the Labor Day Holiday, is what's really on traders minds.

The DOW broke out yesterday, but there is a red flag, where we closed on a reversal candle, just above support. See my word of warning in yesterday's blog, but also keep in mind, things probably won't be different this time, as I wrote about last week.



This is what routinely happens going into a Holiday:

1. First, get everybody bearish, by pulling the rug out on fake news, and that's easy when Wall Street owns every network. 

2. Then drive stocks up into every OPEX, and Holiday short covering. We've seen this story before. Short-covering explains the low volume, and many sellers are already on vacation.

The 2018 Dec. Swoon, was the exception to the rule, but you can see what happened to anyone foolish enough to sell on light holiday volume. The subsequent rally was not only massive short covering, but money being put to work at the beginning of the new year, and all with the help of the Plunge Protection Team, just like we saw in '09.  

Mnuchin Calls Plunge Protection Team; Stocks Soar One Day Later (Forbes)


Of course that story was quickly buried by the financial fake news media, who wants us to believe the fake recovery remains intact, and technically it does, and the powers that be have no choice, but to hold the market up.

..

Capitulation Tops


We've only seen a couple so far, that I'm aware of.

1. Cypress Semiconductor - This is what capitulation looks like. Are you sure you want to be a short seller? I would buy Puts years out, on this one. This is a funny looking chart, but I didn't have time to update it.



2. Target - Low volume short squeeze, beyond any upside target. Karen Finerman owns this one, but smart enough to buy some Puts, but probably not far enough out.



Wow, it's 10 min before the opening bell!
 Looks like we're going to at least get another pullback, and I'll be charting the open in real time, in my Public Charts area.


Catch you later, and have great weekend.
AA

















  

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Market Update 8/22/2019 - Only seeing A Little Pullback After Yesterday's Bearish Warning

I lost internet for several hours yesterday, and that threw a monkey wrench into my ability to get caught up with my charting. Luckily the market behaved itself while my connection was down.

The 1 min continues to work, but I thought it would be good to compare the 1 min. view, to the 10 min view, because I'll be damned, if I can't find the short term trend on the 1 min chart, and I'm all about the short term trend. Sure the market could crash, next week, but I'm not going to fight the short term trend waiting for dooms day. 

$SPX - continues to pullback from my resistance line. We saw a false breakout in AH trading, and it looks like we're going to test that resistance at the open.

There's support at the 2895 level, and I think it'd be good to fill the gap, left behind on the 19th, and Jack-hole isn't until tomorrow. "Don't fight the Fed", as they say. 


$SPX - looking at the 10 min. view -  It's a busy chart, but as you can see, there's support around that 2900 level, at my pink line, and more support at the 2884 level 9 at the top of the previous channel line - seen in black, and now you know why the bid was raised.

Word of warning - if the price action were to fall back into the black channel, on a $VIX breakout, above the 17.25 level, then we could see panic selling, but for the now the market doesn't seem to care about inverted yields, or Hong Kong.   


 $DJIA - This chart is working a lot better, probably because it's not being driven by the hedge funds, and 1000's of bullish traders.


Now Let's find the next breakout point.

$SPX - DCS chart - That's going to look like a breakout above the 2940 level (the recent high), and then the 50 day moving average @ 2946.



 Again, you can see why the market was bid up (above resistance).... and if the market sells off in another panic, there's support at the lower channel line, at the 200 day moving average.

As you can see markets are pivotal here, so be vigilant, and I'll provide live updates in the public charts area, the best I can. My call is for a pullback to support, followed by a rally into Powell's Speech, and possibly beyond.

P.S. I leaving the bearish $SOX charts up, and next resistance on that index is 1531, and 1542 (a FIB target)

Good Luck, AA





Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Market Update 8/21/2019 - Bearish Patterns Emerge

Bearish Patterns Emerge 

 

This morning I was up at 3:30 AM, and decided to get caught up on some charting. I called the pullback going into yesterday's close, and this morning we're seeing buyers come in at the $SPX 2900 level, but today, I want to look past the 1 min chart.  

Like I said yesterday, I don't like this rally, and don't trust the $VIX at these levels. The trend remains down, on the 60 min charts, and that's kind of a big deal!

We've basically been whip-sawing in a tight range, and that brings me to the $SOX chart.

$SOX - 30 min. view - shows the price action whip-saw into what look like a bearish wave B. If you don't know Elliott Wave Theory, a wave B is a counter-trend pattern, which is followed by a powerful wave C. If the bottom drops out and we start seeing lower recent lows, that will confirm it.  This triangle could be wave A, in a larger counter-trend rally, and if that's the case, we should only see a pull-back, but I'm reading this as a bearish wave, until proven otherwise. 

 
 

 I've added the 60 min. $SOX chart to the Public Charts area, and you'll see the same bearish channel on that chart, as you see above (in blue). 

In case you didn't know it, $SOX leads tech, like $TRAN leads the DOW, and if those can't lead the market higher, that's a red flag.   

$DJIA also trending down, in what looks like a bearish triangle. Once this pattern completes, we should get a nice tradeable rally, going into Sept window dressing. We could see a little washout beyond the end of this pattern, but the 25,100 level looks pretty good. 


This isn't a hunch I'm trading on, We've seen lower lows, followed by lower highs, and the pattern is self-evident. 

We saw a lower low on the $RUT, Energy continues to make new lows, and Oil still looks weak - despite this bounce - but we haven't seen lower lows on the $SPX. That's not to say we won't, but that leaves me a little confused 

$SPX - no lower low, yet 


The only other possibility I see is a possible Dow target of 26,600 in an expanded flat pattern. 



 Stay nimble, until we can confirm a direction. I suspect we're going to see a final washout, before money is put to work in Sept (going into the end of  3rd Quarter window dressing)  

The charts I have published in the Public Charts area, is only 1% of the charts I usually watch. I'll continue to switch the charts up as necessary. 

I see $SPX futures pressing resistance, so I get this update published ASAP. 

Good Luck, Traders 



    

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Market Update 8/20/2019 - Will It Be Different This Time?

 Will It Be Different This Time?

If you've been trading for any length of time, I'm sure you've heard this phrase; "Is This Time going to be different"? It refers to a well established market trend, that always seems to work like a charm, until is doesn't anymore. 

Getting up to speed: The market managed to gain back all 800 points, it lost on Wed., and if you include the lower low on Thursday, it was more like 1100 points on the DOW, and 100 handles on the $SPX. 

Of course the Industrial Media Complex, doesn't like this rally, and won't report on it accuratly, because they want a recession. Joe Sixpack only hears about 800 point drops and China/ recession fears. Russia collusion , racism, and recession. Let's call that, "the 3 R's of American Journalism".

Last week I predicted that Germany would lead, and once again the charts are spot on, but that doesn't mean we're off to the races, but it is what it is, and I believe it could go higher, into this weekly OPEX. Remember, every market move revolves around the rigged Options market, just as we saw on Friday, but will it be different this time?

I didn't like yesterday's action, because the $VIX was obvious driven down, and the bid on the  S&P  raised above resistance. Tell-tale sign that the manipulators are back at it again. This is typically how it goes, but will it be different this time? 

If you remember last week, I was looking for support @ the 2910 level, when the market crashed 3%. Well, yesterday, that's exactly where we saw the bid raised in pre-market. This is no coincidence, and once again we saw this engineered in AH (after hours/ futures) trading. If you bought the open, then you only ended up around 9 points, but if you rigged futures, it was a nice gain. Funny how that works!  

So far, this rally only looks like a gap fill, from where they pulled the rug out last week, but I think this rally can extend a little further. Even I was telling folks to load up on Calls, last week.

It's not easy to find a pattern on the charts, and the trend remains down on the 60 min charts, while the trend is up on the short term charts, so I would remain cautious!

Here's what that 3 day rally, back to even looks like on a 10 min chart, and I wish I had switched this one out, for the 1 min chart - located in my public charts folder. yesterday.



This a much shorter term view, than the 10 min chart I have in my Public Charts area, but for now this is the trend. I may replace the 1 min chart, with the one above, since it's easier to to see the channel on this view. 

And keep in mind that once this rally rolls over, we're probably going to fill that gap left behind on the $VIX. Maybe that doesn't happen until next week, given that the bulls are likely going to get paid on this weekly OPEX. Could be different this time, but probably won't. 

$OIL worries me. We got a  dead cat bounce on Monday, and Energy lead... for a change, but there's a good possibility of another big washout, and I can't tell you if that happens in 5 min., or 5 days. See the $USO chart located in my Public Charts area.    

Speaking of Energy, look at Canadian Solar $CSIQ bumping up against major resistance!





$BIDU up 10% - had to check this chart this morning. Looks like a continuing crash. Other Chinese stocks don't look this bad, and I'm still expecting a massive snap-back rally at time point. Not sure this is it, but I think not.


 $DIS is accused of cooking the books, and I don't doubt it. This news may have been dropped in order to coordinate a pullback.
Looks like another major topping (megaphone) pattern in wave 5.





Gold: Continues to hold up, and that's a red flag, regardless of $VIX manipulation we typically see going into the end of every month.

$VIX is hammered down into the end of every month. Every (monthly) candle on this chart has a bearish tail on it, but will it be different this time? Probably not! 




This is how you know the market is rigged. This goes beyond (monthly) window dressing; and as long as they can keep up with this charade, investors are going to remain invested, and that's the whole point....

I've been kind of preoccupied with getting back into YouTube content creation, and that starts with re-learning the screen capture, and editing software.    

 Seeing a little pullback in real-time, and gotta get after it. 
Good luck this week, 
AA


Friday, August 16, 2019

Market Update 8/16/2018 - Happy Friday OPEX

Happy Friday OPEX 

(options expiration) 

Reversal Confirmed

 

Got our reversal, as predicted in  yesterday's update, and not only was I right on the call, but the action played out on the 1 min, as well as can be expected. If you were watching yesterday's action, and following along, you might say it was "perfect".  

It wasn't until the final minutes of trading that I could confirm that the $VIX had dropped back into a the safety zone, and this is usually how it goes.

There was still a chance that the $VIX would break out this morning, and the bearish Options trades would pay, but that just wasn't meant to be. This means over-priced Puts, and (sold) Calls, are going to expire worthless. This is why I always say the monthly market action is all about OPEX.

 To review:

1. Predicted a reversal

2. Confirmed the bottoming pattern, and called the bottom in real time. 

3. Confirmed that the $VIX was signalling risk on at the close.

4. Reversal confirmed this morning

a. German $DAX reversal 

b. Dow breaks out above the 200 day

c. $VIX gaps down

This update ran past the opening bell, and I've had my hands full charting the action. 

10:15 CST -

$SPX - 1 min chart from my Public Charts area

Seeing support break below my pink line. Pink line with a circle on it is the stop hunt, so there's actually 2 lines of support on the chart. The blue lines, are a hypothetical bullish channel.Support is the breakout point @ 2863, and a possible gap fill fade. There's a good chance the gap on the $VIX fills as well. 



I think this rally has legs, and we'll see how it plays out next week. Maybe we get a pullback on Monday? On the other hand, $SOX may break out above the 50 day, and lead the NASDAQ higher!

I got charts to update, and other things to get caught up on. It's been been a bust week and TGIF. 

Have a great weekend!  

AA

 

 

 

 

Thursday, August 15, 2019

Market Update August, 15th, 2019 - The August Swoon - Part 2

I ran out of time today, because I like to get these daily market update's completed, before the opening bell, so here comes part 2. If you missed Part 1, here's a link...

Quick update on this mornings action: 

We saw a little pop on better than expected earnings out of (China - trade dependent) Walmart, and good retail sales numbers. I thought China trade was an issue? Where's this "recession", every news outlet in the country was seen pushing, yesterday? Not just CNBC, & CNN, but every TV, and radio station!  "Biggest One Day Drop Of 2019", that's not saying much, and how does the constant fear mongering help the average investor?

Every time the market goes down, it's Trumps fault, and if there isn't a Trump tweet that can be blamed... then pull out the old "inverted yield curve" story, and run super-bearish reports (reruns) on your network at night. 

“CNBC Special Report: Markets in Turmoil” Airs Tonight at 7PM ET




Anything to try win an election, I guess, and Trump's right when he calls the Fake News Media, "The Enemy Of The State", and your pocketbook! 

Getting back to the real news:

Corn - yes corn! The little rows of yellow kernels, that grow on a cob? 
I'm not suggesting you should trade corn, but at least you can eat corn, unlike another yellow commodity, that rhymes with "mold", and this pattern may look familiar to you, if you've been following my Gold charts. I think no investor should own much Gold, and certainly not 10% of your portfolio, but I'll leave that to the financial professionals. 
 


$SPX

We continue to build a base, as the $VIX remains above 21.50 support.  Yes, it's that simple, and if only there was a $VIX for every index..!



I noticed the DOW broke the 200 day ma, so we're probably seeing some program selling.

Remember what I was saying about watching the long term charts this morning. Anyone can watch the daily moving averages, and I shouldn't even have to alert to something so simple.
  

What's really significant, is that we're seeing support come in on the $NYSE! 



$NYSE - Daily Candlestick Chart 2 year view


That chart has been sitting in my Public Charts area for a week, and shame on you, if you haven't been paying attention!

Random Stock: 

$GE - down 12%


During all the time I was on twitter, did you ever once hear me suggest anyone to buy $GE stock? Uh, no, not even for a trade! Not even on a false breakout!


 How is it that my charts work so well, while investors consistently lose money calculating PE ratios, and listening to cable news shows? I see major support taken out on a bad earnings support, on a stock like Boeing (for example), and just have to shake my head. Trend lines are not that difficult to draw, and you can see what happens when they break. You can't ignore technical patterns in 2019.  

 Begs to question: Are people really this stupid? I think we are a becoming a, "Nation of Idiots", but I also think when folks hear people say things like, nobody can time the market; they give up too easily. This is hard work, and it takes more time than most traders are willing to invest. I've had my nose to the grind stone for over 10 years, and still making huge discoveries! 
 

A word of caution 

Not that I'm the least bit worried about the market at these levels, you can never be too careful.

Volatility remains high, and with the volume as light as it is, you could see a situation where volatility spikes, and there's no bid under the market. That's a recipe for disaster.

I'd would just tell you to trust the $VIX, and the long term charts.

$SPX DCS Chart. Key support (2622) tested last week. I don't see that breaking any time soon, but If that happens there's support at the 200 day average, around $VIX 29. 

 


One last thing I wanted to mention, was that John Nagarian, had some very insightful observations, on Fast Money (I think I was watching...), yesterday. He said, he saw a lot of  PUT buying yesterday, and a lot of buying of the August $VIX 30 strike, and Gold. He's smart enough to see this as a contrarian indicator, and tried to warn people, and that he sold his position in $GDX. I may not agree with most of his calls, but he has more experience than I do, and I gotta respect that! 

Take care, Traders
AA




Market Update August, 15th, 2019 - The August Swoon - Part 1

I usually just blog on the fly, from memory, but today, I had to take notes with my morning coffee.

There's a lot I want to cover this morning, and I needed to remind myself to take a look at my $DAX charts, because the $DAX continues to be a great indicator for global markets! I can tell you the $DAX is testing support as I type, so no worries.

Today's Trade


$SPX - Looking at yesterday's action on a 1 min. chart, we seem to be trading into a bottoming pattern. Those of you who followed me on twitter, over the past few years, have seen this pattern play out before, and I haven't been wrong calling a major bottom in years.

There's a very slight chance that we could see the $VIX spike to 28.50, but I'm looking for it to break back down below 20.75, and keep falling below 20.  If those $VIX targets change, I'll alert to it on the 1 min public chart.

I don't like to publish my $VIX charts, because any financial terrorist, foreign, or domestic, could use this information to take the market down. Yes, I'm serious. We're in a trade war, and the globalist hate Trump, not to mention Wall Street is a den of thieves. 

For those of you who are new to this: We could see a little washout below the down turned triangle, but that's usually followed by a swift reversal - breakout above the pattern.  


So US markets seem to be trading into a bottoming pattern, after yesterday's give back - of the rally of the previous day. That didn't really come as much of a surprise, as I  had alerted to a possible retest of the bottom of the range, on Wed... but I sure didn't expect it to get done in a day! The volatility is ridiculous, considering how light the volume is. Some claim this is computer driven trading, but I think it's easy to hammer markets down on light volume, and big as an 800 point drop on the Dow sounds, it seems pretty orderly. It's not gapping down during the day, more like being walked down, similar to what we saw in Dec.   

$SPX - see the the annotation at the bottom of Wednesday's chart. alerting the bottom of the range




Longer Term 



As well as the 1 min chart is working, it's really important to have your long term charts in order, because otherwise you're not going to know when a long term trend breaks, and that's where you see the big move, 10% and more, sp I'm going to continue to add more long term charts - to the PC area. 


I'm seeing upturned bearish triangle patterns on most of my long term charts, and if that pattern continues, markets won't top out for at least a year, or more, but looking at the $DAX, it could be several more years!

$DAX - 20 year chart  - "Don't fight the trend", as they say in the business.




I'm out of time. This may extend into a Part 2 later in the day, because I didn't get to half of what I wanted to say! I didn't even get a chance to blast the dishonest financial fake news media!

Gotta go

Good luck Traders,
AA

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Market Update 8/14/2019 - The Inverted Yield Curve

 The Inverted Yield Curve



This is the excuse the financial fake news is using, for today's pullback, and isn't it funny that the market can only pull-back in futures trading? I've noticed this more and more over the past year or so. The market tends to hold up into the close, only to be hammered down in pre-market trading, but the powers that be, have been manipulating futures for as long as I can remember - since the crash of 1987. This is why I keep telling folks to trade futures. If you were hedging yourself, overnight, you wouldn't be freaking out in the morning. It was very obvious where futures broke, as you'll see on the chart's below!

For those who don't know it, an inverted Yield Curve is a widely accepted signal that a recession is coming, within a year or 2. I used to listen to Bob Brinker's Money Report, on a local AM radio station... so I've known this for decades, but to use this long term indicator as an excuse for a pullback is laughable.

I suppose as long as Trump is in office, the cable networks are going to be the bearers of bad news, and they would rather see his team fail, than see the U.S.A. win. 

Yes there's a recession coming, and worse, and my timeline is currently for around this time next year. It's been 10 years since we've seen a bear market, so we're way over-due!

Today's trade:

Those who watch the Public Charts area, know I was charting live yesterday afternoon, looking for a pullback target, and I liked the 2910 level, but I'm seeing that being taken out... The FIB target around 2900 is also taken out. I do see support around the 2892, and 2888 level. We'll have to see what the open looks like, and I'll be charting the open, as usual. 

$SPX - I may switch out this 1 min chart, for the one in the Public Charts area.




This is the 1 min chart you're seeing up there now:


$VIX 20 is going to be the magic number. You'll see selling above 20, and this is why the PTB drive it above that level. Then they come in and drive it back down, once they're done loading the truck.
Also watch the $VIXY. The previous high was 24.74, and unless it can get above that level, fear has already peaked out.

$SPX Daily Candlestick Chart:
I believe the market can continue to melt up to that 2960 level, before pulling back. See the grey arrow on this DCS chart, and I should add this chart to the Public charts area.




Looks like like I got the direction on Oil right, and Gold miners are set to rally into a capitulation top.

I also got $SOX right, and that the thing I said to watch.... It was a monster rally!



We'll see what happens at the open.
GL Traders,
AA

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Market Update 8/13/2019 - Technical Tuesday

The 1 min $SPX chart in my Public charts area continues to break down, and the $VIX is trading above 20 again, so this morning I decided to retrace our footsteps, and figure out where I went wrong.

Always trust the charts; "never argue with the charts", because the charts are never wrong. 

First let's review last weeks market action: 

Last week we got a nice short squeeze back to the 2938 level - just above the 50 day ma. The following day the 50 day ma broke, and by the end of the day it had bounce back to a lower high.

I may have been stressed out on Friday, but I was well enough aware of the fact that the 50 day moving average was going to break, as soon as the market opened, but I didn't think much of the bearish back-test of that average, going into the close. I had my mind on other things, but in hindsight I wasn't bearish enough.

There was a rush for the exits, going into Friday's close, followed by images of teargas being fired at  protesters inside the worlds 3rd largest Airport, in Hong Kong, and a Goldman Sachs report of an "increased chance of a recession", and of course the same old "China tensions" story. Looks like another orchestrated sell-off.  

My forecast was for the market to "pause", and this is more of a pullback than a "pause". I didn't expect the bullish channel to break, and I didn't expect the $VIX to break out above 20 again, on such low volume, on a Monday in August, but as it turns out there was something I missed!

Getting back to the 1 min chart, and Fridays snap-back rally

$SPX -  First thing I did was to draw up a new 1 min chart, which ended up looking about the same as the one in my public charts area.  


See the lower high at the top of the channel (in blue), where the question market is? Now compare that lower high, to the higher high on the 1 min DOW chart below.





$INDU   - Dow actually made a higher high, completing wave 5!



To make a long story short: the lower high on the $SPX is called, "a truncted 5th". This is where wave 5 makes a lower high than wave 3. It's kind of rare, but shit happens.

 I think this is when Goldman Sachs is really up to; setting the bear trap.

I'm sick of hearing about China fears, and everyone is too damn bearish, on old news.

Look, there ain't gonna be no China deal, and even when there is one, the Chinese are likely gong to break it.   

This update ran past the opening bell, and lookie there! The $VIX broke down, and we're already retesting the revent highs.

Maybe the market can hold up into OPEX, but I'm not sure it can break out above 2060, in fact I'm pretty sure it can't.  

I got charts to update, so gotta go. Watch the Public Charts area for up to the minute technical charts 

Until next time, good luck Traders,
AA




Monday, August 12, 2019

Market Update - 8/12/2019 - Looking at the week ahead

 Looking at the week ahead

(and August OPEX)

The market remains volatile after last weeks snap-back rally, and the financial cable news networks continue to push the bearish (Hong Kong) China story. They're careful not to mention, the "workers strike", because I think they don't want to give the radicals in the US the same idea, but I think that's a certainty once the SHTF. You already see them threatening to boycott any business who supports the opposition. "Shut it down", has become a political slogan for the left, and people like Bill Maher are hoping for a rescission. All I can say is, "be careful what you wish for", and sooner or later, we're going to go back and retest the breakout point on the $DOW, back in 2016, just below the 20k level. I'll reveal that chart at a later date.

My outlook for this week, remains bullish, after the over-reaction we saw a couple weeks ago, and I think the only reason we're seeing futures down this morning, is in order to shake out the weak hands.

Getting back to Hong Kong, and the $FXI (China). I called it oversold last week, and it remains over-sold, so I'd be looking for a powerful (wave C) counter trend rally there.  


Maybe that remains pinned, ahead of OPEX. Timing is difficult, and wave B's are difficult to predict. The larger trend remains down, but I think by OCT we'll see this index retesting the previous high around the 44 level. 

Looking at the $SPX:

We saw the $VIX top out at 19.44, and that level becomes my line in the sand. I don't see that fear gauge breaking out, any time soon, but if it does, you'll see another washout, and that level will become the pivot.

$SPX Still trading in a revised bullish channel, on the 1 min view.

 

If that pattern breaks, then look for a little gap fill at the 2890 level.

$SPX 10 min chart w/ support and resistance levels


The $SOX is a chart I haven't included in my public charts area, but I'd be watching the 50 day moving average, and support just below the 1400 level. If $SOX can't lead then way down, then this is just a little shakeout, like I said....




That's all time I have. Thanks for your support, and gook luck this week.
AA















Friday, August 9, 2019

Market Update 8/9/2018 - Trading the Biggest Stock Market Bubble In History - Living The Dream!

 Trading the Biggest Stock Market Bubble In History - 

Living The Dream!

Where to start? 


I've been up since 3:00 AM, with a headache, and thoughts racing, as they sometimes do... It's not that I'm anxious about the market; you see, last night I purchased a whole beef brisket, and planning to smoke that puppy on some Post Oak, this evening, and let it finish overnight. It's like an 18 hour project. Smoking Brisket Is An Art.

2. I need to better organize the public stock charts area - many of those charts aren't working, and I should probably add some annotations, or just take some charts down. At least it looks like today should be an easy trading day, with the $SPX testing the 50 day moving average, and holding above the support level I pinned down, going into yesterday's close. Looks like we're going to be hanging out, just below the 50 day, and taking a pause. 

a. We're watching Gold, and Silver, waiting to confirm a top, and that's a tall order. I was watching a guest on Bumble-berg (Bloomberg), who was saying gold ran "too far, and too fast", but that's just a foolish comment. Commodities run too far, and too fast, and overshoot the target, all the time! I think with the kind of momentum we've seen in Gold, and Silver, it's going to take some time to reverse. Maybe not until after contract expiration, whenever that is? That's where the real manipulation of commodities markets takes place, because that's where the big money is made. 

b. We're also watching for a reversal in beaten up Oil, and Gas, stocks. CNBC is telling up to 'stay away" from those, so I think we're getting close...  (using the main stream media as a contrarian indicator). As I mentioned last week, "the oil trade is off the table"; I just haven't had time to take a close look at it. I do see commodities building a base, but we may not see the breakout for another week or two.

If keeping several charts/sectors up to date, gets to be too much like work, I can always go to 1, or 2 charts in the public charts area. This would allow me to thumb through several other sectors, plus the $VIX, during the day - which is my habit - without having to worry above whether someone is watching.

I've kind of changed my normal M.O. (mode of operation), in order to provide the Public Charts, and it's been a stressful transition, especially in the midst of a trend reversal. Last time I pulled my Public Charts was for this reason; constant updating of the PC area, is a distraction from all the work it takes to time markets consistently, not to mention the time it takes to blog these updates.

Another reason the Public Charts came down last time, is it's impossible to know the size of my audience, and there doesn't seem to be as much interest as there used to me. Some of that probably has to do with the fact that when I saw the flash crash coming in 2010 - That drew a lot of attention, and I continued to have the hot hand for a while thereafter.... They say the flash crash was the result of a heavy hand, or manipulation by a rouge traders, but if that were the case, we wouldn't have gone back and retested the low, like we did.  I also used to make a lot of bold (mostly bearish) predictions, and most traders were still very bearish at that time.

I suppose I should send out a mass e-mail, letting folks know the public charts are back.           

Yesterday's trade was just as I predicted, and confirmed by Peter Navarro himself:   

Of course the powers that be, knew this press release was coming, and that explains why the market gapped up in the morning. What's nice is it was not a big gap up, and the breakout was obvious, and even finding a bullish channel on a 1 min. chart, proved not to be very difficult, in fact I didn't even have to watch the market action, most of the day. It was one of the best rallies, we've seen for a while.

One of the biggest short squeezes we saw was in $AMD, and the rally in $SOX, lines up pretty well with the one on the $SPX. This is a classic case of, "too far too fast"!


  


 The second chart I want to show you is, of all things - the Swiss market. You've probably heard it being reported that, "stocks regained all of the loses of this week", but seeing it on a weekly chart, ain't too impressive. It was a technical bounce off support, and look at the candle! This market thinks it going somewhere? I'm always amazed what you can find a market bottom using a 1 min chart, when the same thing can be found on a weekly chart, and while they're tell us to fear a China trade war, you see global markets melting down for a million other reasons.

 This is anther black swan, and the Swiss government has been buying stocks for a long time btw
It's pretty sad, when you gotta go to Russian Television to get the truth, but you should should check out Max Keiser if you want to know what's really been going on, and why it's all going to end disastrously.  Here's a link...

Keiser Report: Monopoly Crisis and Negative Yielding Debt (E1420)





Funny, if you caught yesterday's blog, you know I called out Twitter, for their fascistic behavior, and set a $TWTR target of 4.50. But  the uncanny thing is that this was before they blocked Mitch McConnell. This one of those clairvoyant things I can't explain, but it happens to me quite often


Twitter suspends Mitch McConnell's campaign account after posting video of protesters threatening him

 

 

 
One more black swan! The Italian government is melting down, and the chart confirms it! Another disaster, having nothing to do with China.


Italy’s political chaos sends European stocks sliding


I'm outta time. Have a great weekend!
AA




Thursday, August 8, 2019

Market Update 8/8/2019 - Happy Heil Hitler Day! - and why twitter's Stock is going to $5

 

Happy Heil Hitler Day!

and why twitter's Stock is going to $5



Happy Heil Hitler Day! (political insider inside joke on the "8/8" conspiracy). This is why I don't miss Twitter; Twitter management breaks their own rules, and guidelines, every day, by allowing leftist propaganda (such the 8/8 conspiracy", to trend all day long, while blocking any conservative who dares to say something that's considered politically correct, or insensitive. Good riddance!

Yes, this is personal, because I don't appreciate being silenced, by the Orwellian Power Structure, I like to call the "tech tyranny", but I'm going to try to not allow that bias to creep into my analysis of twitter's stock.
 
Twitter $TWTR - target $4.50. See that little bearish upturned triangle in purple? I expect the price action to fall out of that pattern, before the end of the year - October maybe. Of course the dip buyers will come in at support, at my pink line, and we'll see a nice counter-trend rally, going into 2020...  



Getting on with the business of of the day:

Yesterday, we got a nice washout to a lower low on the DOW (fell below the 200 day), but not on the $SPX, and then we saw buyers rush in again, so I wasn't all wrong, and we may still test that 2800 level. Oil also took a hit, but quickly bounced off the double bottom. 

The $VIX continues to be hammered down, below the 20 level.  Looks like a repeat of what we saw on Tuesday. Who knows who's behind that manipulation. Bernanke bragged about lower volatility, and we know the banksters manipulate markets, at will. They've been buster a million times....

The short term trade:

Over-night we saw futures pullback, before breaking out of what looks like a bullish triangle, on the 1 min. chart, but I don't trust Elliott Wave patterns on 1 min charts. I do however trust the channels, and support and resistance levels...

$SPX 1 min - see the top of the channel in black. This is same thing I'm pointing to on the chart located in my public charts area, but I created the chart below, so it's easier to see.

 
I think we're going to remain trapped in a range for a while, and we may retest the lows several more times, before consolidation completes, but I don't see the market collapsing, even if the $VIX breaks a little higher. I was watching some fund manager on Bloomberg yesterday, and he expects the market to break higher, before retesting these lows, in fall - on a "lower $VIX". That's kind of what I was thinking, but I'm not too certain on that. Lower market low, on a lower $VIX, is bullish.

Last weeks sell-off was an over-reaction, and I warned what would happen when the $VIX broke out. I'm surprised nobody took me up on my $100 offer, to reveal exactly where the reversal would take place. That was the deal of the century, and now that the $VIX, has broken out, fear remains.

This is choppy trading, and seems to confirm the bearish diagonal triangle patterns I'm seeing. Triangles are always complicated, with many head-fakes within the pattern.

Speaking of triangle patterns, I revealed this Australian chart, on my LinkedIn, yesterday, so folks there can see for themselves that this was a technical correction, that has nothing to do with Trump, or the, The Fed, China, or currency market. And this is just 1 of the black swans I see lining up in a row. 



The $VIX, and the $VIXY broke out, and global markets are beginning to top out, and traders over-reacted. Now we're bounce we're going to be stuck in a range for a while. This typically what happens after a big move.

That's all the time I got. Watch for precious metals to collapse, along with BitCoin, and US Treasuries, since that's where the scared money seems to be hiding out. That money needs to be put to work, in something less speculative.


 

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Market Update 8/7/2019 - Will I get the market direction wrong today, because that would be historic!

 It's been a while since I got it wrong, but I'm sure eventually, it will happen, but probably not today, and if you're a hedge fund who's trying to use my analysis as a contrarian indicator, that must be upsetting to you #LOL

We saw futures swing to green overnight, but now I see them down hard, and that's exactly what I expect after yesterday's little rally, but the manipulators must have thought that by driving the $VIX just below 20 (19.95), at the close, that would turn the tide. Now watch what happens when the $VIX breaks back above 20 at the open!

I still don't see the ($SPX) 2800 level breaking, but I do think we need a thorough test of support at that level. There is a slight possibility that the $VIX continues to break out, and that level breaks, but we'll deal with that, when the time comes. Maybe we see a shakeout below 2800, followed by a rebound, but it's up to you to know how to trade a reversal. I'm just a technician.

There is a very good chance this market is going to collapse, so we're going to continue to sell the snap-back rallies accordingly. I think we can see a more tradable rally going into August OPEX, because the stock market casino is all about manipulating Options markets.

As long as the $VIX, and the $VIXY remain elevated, I'm going to play it safe, and not because I'm afraid of what's coming, but because that's just the way it is.    

As usual, I don't have much time this morning, but I want to keep you up to date, and up to the minute, the best I can, and try to teach you something, as we go along. In fact if anyone wants personal guidance, I'll teach you every trick in the book, for a fee. If you can't afford a personal trainer, then maybe you can at least throw me a bone? I'm also willing to work remotely for the right hedge-fund, or angel investor, but that's a tough gig to find. Maybe you know someone who needs an experience market technician ? I need work, so I can make money, to pay the bills, like everybody else.

I'm still getting used to having a public charts folder again, and it's a lot of work to try to keep a handle on several sectors, and commodities like Oil, and Gold. I have well over 1000 charts working, and follow 100's stocks. Not because I trade a basket of stocks, but because the market is made up of individual stocks, and certain ones move the market; Apple for instance.

Those of you who followed me on Twitter know, Apple, is one of the ones I watch, and have probably seen this chart before, and knew about the gap target on Apple, and you can see how that played out on the chart. When I say, "market's are manipulated", I'm not making excuses, I'm stating fact.

$AAPL trading below the 50 day ma. Took 2 months to top out, but only a week, to break the 50 day moving average, and in case you didn't know it, "a stock that's trading below it's 50 day moving average is considered bearish". That's a simple formula, anyone can understand.  


Now take a look at the buying volume from 5 days ago, where it topped out. They say "buying volume precedes price movement", and you can see for yourself, that's a myth (busted!).

Apple was pumped, by the powers that be, and dropped like a hot potato. All they cared about was getting their money back, after last years collapse, and now there's another gap that's been left behind, at the 207 level. Sooner or later, I think that one will fill - once we find a sustainable rally.    

$AAPL is a stock to watch, and not because I think it's going to break out this morning, but because it didn't break out, yet... 

 That's all the time I got, and I may add the 10 min chart below to the public charts area, if that one performs better. For now the 1 minute chart located in my public charts continues to work like a charm.



 Take Care, AA




 

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Market Update August, 6th, 2019 $VIX tops out

Yesterday was kinda hectic. I lost internet in the afternoon, after putting an annotation that I was charting in real time, and I never found the time to finish "Part 2", of  yesterday's blog. Shit happens.

We saw a decent washout yesterday, with the Dow losing 700 points (3%), and that's about what I expected... but we never did see velocity increase exponentially, and after only 3 big down days, I can't seem to find a bearish channel.

What I am seeing is a very orderly looking $VIX pattern. $VIX never got above 25, so fear remains contained, and buyers stepped in at the 200 day moving average on the $DOW.



The 200 day on the $SPX is 2790 and rising, but I don't see support @ 2800 breaking any time soon.

I think we're going to go back and retest the 2955 level (around 2959-60), and then maybe come back and retest this level in the fall, around the Brexit deadline.

Since emerging market we hit hard, and not Oil, the catalyst for this sell-off was the Fed, and that was accentuated by the shut down of Hong Kong, and the Pentagon planning to put missiles in Asia. China is oversold, so watch for a big snap-back rally there.

There is a lot more I could go into, but I want to get this chart up before the opening bell, so I have to cut this short. Watch the public charts!

GL, AA








Monday, August 5, 2019

Market Update Monday, August, 5th, 2019 - Part 1

Good morning, Traders!

I have a lot to get to this morning, so I thought it would be good to break up this  update into 2 parts.

Part 1 is intended to get you up to speed, identify some key $VIX (fear gauge) levels, and the short term trade.

Part 2 is going to cover some sector trades, including gold, and the longer term outlook, based on the pattern I'm seeing. I can already see I'm going to run out of time to complete part 2, before the opening bell,  so I'll alert to that update in the annotations on the 1st chart, located in my Pubic Charts area. You can find the link to those live charts in the left hand menu.    

In case you missed last weeks reversal: 

We saw the short term trend break, and the $VIX break out above the 20 level, and it looks like we're going to see another $VIX break out -above that key 20 level - at the open. The $VIXY is also breaking out, so there's real fear in this market. This is why warned investors to get out a couple weeks ago. I'm only surprised the selling didn't accelerate on Friday, and futures are only down 1% on the $SPX, last  I checked. So far, not so bad, but if the $VIX continues to breakout above my next line in the sand - which is the $VIX 24 level - bad things will happen. I'd be watching the charts very closely today!   

$VIX 20+ is a universal sell signal, but if the $VIX comes back down below that magic number you'll see massive short covering, and seeing as today is the fist Monday of the month, we could see the bulls step up, and put money to work.

 $SPX 10 min view



Here's what the action of the past couple weeks looks like on a 10 min chart. You can see where the market broke on Wed., of last week, and testing 2910 support. Next support looks like 2890 (91?), with a washout to 2881 possible - looking a 1 min chart.

$SPX 1 min chart



The 1 min chart seems to be working pretty well, and I may add this very short term chart to the public charts area once I can confirm a reversal.

 The other critical thing to watch besides the $VIX, is the 50 day moving averages on the $SPX (2927), and the NASDAQ, as seeing on the chart below.



I'm out of time!

Good luck, Traders 

Friday, August 2, 2019

Market Update August 2nd, 2019 - Reviewing Yesterday's Awesome Trade


 In yesterday's market update, I was looking for a retest of support, and boy did we get it, and in a big way!

As I said, after the opening bell (in the chart annotations in my public charts area), "Only Fools Rush In", and you can see how the action played out - exactly as I predicted in real time - on the 60 min chart - located in my Public Charts Area - below.


And if you think that chart looks busy, you should've seen it by the end of the day! This is actually the cleaned up version.... 

Identifying the rally off Wed's low, as a suckers rally, and knowing exactly where the market was going to break again (at the same  "3004) level it broke down on Wed) was key to predicting yesterday's market action, but knowing where the $VIX is likely to top out is paramount....
That $VIX 18.50 level means everything! As long as the $VIX continues to fall back from yesterday's high, this rally can continue into the end of the year, but if the $VIX were to continue higher from here, selling will accelerate exponentially! I give that close to a 0% chance, for several reasons I don't have time to get into, this morning, but for starters, insider traders in our gangster government - See how Congress Cashes In On Insider Trading in this article - knew Trumps tweet was coming, and the algorithms have been pre-programed to sell any negative Trump tweets that mention "China tariffs". Now that the bad news is out, the market can only go up. Predicting markets doesn't get any better than this!  

Next let's look at yesterday's action on a fresh 1 min chart.


Of course I used a 60 min. chart, so in hindsight, I may not have been as accurate on picking the exact top.... but I think most technicians have no idea how close we came to a major correction yesterday, and if you're still micro-focused on a short term chart when the SHTF, good luck finding the next level of support!   

I recognize a bearish snap-back rally when I see it. I cut my teeth trading the market great market collapse of 07 - 08, while many younger traders today, don't know the difference between one rally and the next. Driving the market back to $SPX 3000, and Dow 27k, doesn't repair the broken charts, as you can see below, and that why I left this chart up. It's a good example of the stupidity we see in markets today. $SPX 3000 means nothing. There isn't any support or resistance there.    


See that down-turned blue channel line I added to the chart, yesterday? That's how bear markets begin, with a lower channel line, an no doubt some believe we're in a bear market. Doesn't matter to me, one way or the other, because I like the volatility.
I'm neither bullish nor bearish, I'll trade the trend, in either direction.  

I think today, we'll probably see the market continue to build a base, and the AI is likely going to get paid on this weekly OPEX. The bears are also gun shy after yesterday's slaughter, and money doesn't get put to work until the first Monday of the month.

Enjoy the Summer while it last, but set a $VIX alert above that 18.50 level, just in case....

Re: Twitter: I never could get a live person to help me restore access to my twitter, and this is typical. I could create another account, but, I don't miss Twitter, and I'm not going back. It's a dying platform. I spent several years promoting myself there, and have little to show for it, and that kind of (negative) social media is bad for my mental heath. I've noticed I'm more active, and my mood is 100% better, after only a couple weeks!