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Friday, August 30, 2019

Market Update 8/30/2019 - Looking Ahead To Next Week

Believe me, I'd like to blog about the fact that the former head of Obama's FBI, isn't going to be prosecuted, for leaking classified information to the Leftist Main Stream Media, in order to launch a bogus investigation against a political opponent (President Trump), but that's off topic.  Even James Comey's top FBI team was "stunned", he leaked...  [New York Post]

I got the direction right again, and looks like the Bulls are going to get paid on those weekly Options, they rolled over last week. Yes, the game is rigged, but knowing that makes market timing a lot easier.

This morning we see $SPX futures pressing the 50 day ma., but this seems a little rich. I'm not saying it can't take the 50 day, and hold up into early next week, on light volume, but we're certainly not off to the races here, for a number of technical reasons I just down have time to delve into. I've already been working on this blog for several hours, and need to get it publish, before the opening bell, unlike yesterday. Yesterday, I thought I hit the, "publish" button, and then I got distracted by the open. I shouldn't have to work this hard going into a holiday, but this is a good trading environment.

$SPX: I was able to find a trend, once this rally continued for a couple day's, but I don't expect it to last. I don't believe money managers are going to chase this, so we could see a buyers strike next week.

$RUT - took out the target I laid out in yesterday's update. I was kind of amazed myself, but this morning we see it up again? Let's go to a 60 min chart.  

$RUT - fresh 60 min chart. I see resistance @ 1515. I see a trend that is not up. That's all I got!

 Gold, and Gold miners continue to hold up. I like the 3X Junior miners BEAR, on the next washout lower.

$JDST - $8 maybe? Just looking for a little washout, but that looks like 20% from here. That's not a huge move for this fund. Don't trade these miner ETF's unless you have a strong stomach.


Another one of the things I'm seeing is a big breakout in Natural Gas, and if you're interested in that trade, drop $100 in my PayPal, and I'll be happy to share the charts, and provide an upside target.

 The energy trade is showing some signs of life, but I think we aren't quite there yet. That's the most hated sector, so I'd like to find the bottom....

Thanks for following this blog, and the Public charts area. and if you have a account, please remember to vote for my Public Charts daily. Helps me move up in the ranks. 

Done Stamp! 


Thursday, August 29, 2019

Market Update August, 29, 2019 - "When The Cat's Away The Mice Will Play"

Seeing typical holiday trading, as expected. The sellers, are away, and the retail shorts are covering on a lower $VIX.

At yesterday's open, we saw a little shakeout to a lower recent low, but support was easy to find, and before long the $VIX had fallen back below the 20 level. 

But the best trade was found in the $RUT, which I timed perfectly, and alerted to throughout the day. As frustrating as it was trying to find a bullish reversal (pattern), on the 1 min $SPX chart, there was no chart needed for that trade. 

 $RUT - I drew up this 15 min chart this morning, and it does show the breakout points, but this was all about the $RVX coming down, after the $RUT made a fresh 3 month low.

Funny the financial fake news won't report a fresh 3 month low, but when a sector makes new highs, we're supposed to get exited about it. Look at the hoopla being generated over higher bond prices, and gold. I may have under-estimated the mass hysteria... but this isn't news to me, and when I see Faux Business parading the gold bugs across my television screen, I know that's the kiss of death for the gold rally. That's a major contrarian indicator, when the MSM starts reporting all time highs in anything.

30 Year Treasuries: Called the top in 2016. Spotted the breakout in early 2019, and now we see it back-testing (bearish) resistance at the 2015 level, and anyone who's been following me for any length of time, should already be familiar with this chart.  

Silver - Looks like they sold gold, and moved into Silver, as evidenced by the Gold to Silver ratio.

Gold to Silver ratio: Not sure yet what that means, but it's this long term trend seems to be broken.

I'm already running out of time, but I'd expect the market to hold up above $SPX 2900 going into weekly OPEX, Friday and a 3 day weekend, but I wouldn't be chasing it at the open.

I'm out of time.
Have a happy Labor Day Holiday

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Market Update 8/28 - Market Pulls Back Ahead Of August Gold Contract Expiration

I though we might be off to the races this morning, on light holiday trading, but it looks like we're going to retest the recent low, on a 20+ $VIX.

I thing this has a lot to do with the Gold markets being engineered a little higher, going into August contract expiration (today). 

NASDAQ - pullback to the bottom of the range

I'm not really expecting much more than that, and going back 20 years, I can't find an instance, where the $VIX closed at a new recent high going into the end of the month. I suppose this has to do with money being put to work at the end of every month, and especially when that coincides with the end of a quarter. That being said, we could see the bottom of the range break, and there a lack of a bid under this thinly traded market, and that could result in a flash-crash to DOW 25,250. I'm not calling for that, but we've seen the rug pulled out before. "Never pass up a good opportunity to rob the retail investor", as they probably say on Wall Street. 

$DOW DCS chart - slight risk of a flash crash, and a capitulation top in Gold.

I think there's a good chance we remain trapped in a range, ahead of the Brexit deadline. That's only a couple months away See the down turned triangle pattern in blue   

Hopefully everything goes according to plan, and I can take a few days off.

Follow the Public charts for up to the minute updates, and charts, and have a happy Labor Day weekend!

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Market Update 8/27 - Choppy Markets Continue

Trading a range is usually no fun, and this one is no exception. Lots of waiting, then the rug get pulled out, then back to building base, and more waiting

$SPX 1 min chart - at least I got Friday's sell-off right, and I kept the down-arrow on it for a good 10 min. while they drove the $VIX back down, so they could roll their Calls over into the next week. It was an awesome trade, but now we're left waiting again.

Regardless of the bearish looking 1 min chart above, choppy, "sideways action, with lots of head-fakes", is what I predicted, and that continues. I may not win any popularity contests calling for continues sideways action in a range, but you saw what happened to overly bearish futures traders Sunday night.

NASDAQ 30 min chart - See the little wave "e" throw-over past the target, Friday afternoon. We could continue to build a base for a couple more days. More waiting. 

I suspect that was an wave "e", because of the overwhelming bearishness associated with this little pullback. and the fact that it threw over past the target, before reversing.

Triangle patterns are hard to identify, and hard to trade, and when you look at the range on the DOW, it looks more like an expanding (broadening pattern), as seen below, so the fun continues. 

$DJIA - The 30 min Dow chart show an alternate broadening triangle pattern, and I'd expect to retest the top of of it, before the lower end...

 The DOW seems to be trading back in the down-turned triangle pattern I pointed to a week or 2 ago. You can see the upper triangle line being sold once again, but is this pattern still valid? NO
Watch for a breakout above yesterday's highs.

$DJIA - seems like the bears are still clinging to this pattern 

$SPX continues to trade in a range - as I pointed out in yesterday's update. 

I offered a couple alternate trades in yesterday's update, so also check those out.

Gold - momentum slows, as volume falls off. Looks like a false breakout above the 1526 level

Silver - look for a reversal at the 16.80 level, on the $SLV. Of course it can overshoot the target, before reversing, and if you don't already know that you should've even be trading commodities 

The Dow Priced in Gold. Something has to give, and I predict it's going to be Gold, and gold miners.

The oil trade has been choppy at best. I do see some support here, on the LT $WTI chart, so I wouldn't be making anymore bearish bets, based on the short term $USO I have up in the the Public Charts area. In fact that chart is coming down.

So when is the Market crash again? Probably not for a while. When my pink line breaks, maybe in early 2020, in a continued coup against our sitting president. They will stop at nothing to get the orange Hitler out of office. Ask Government Sachs, when they plan to crash it. 

There's still a good possibility that we see a new high first, but the correction is already being engineered, and certain markets are already looking pretty shaky. 

Take Care,

Monday, August 26, 2019

Market Wrapup - Week Ending 8/26 - And A Look At The Week Ahead

To make it really simple, on Friday we finally filled the gap left behind on the $VIX, a week earlier.

 The catalyst was:

1. A surprise attack by China, who placed tariffs on American made automobiles, and oil.

2. Hawkish statements coming out of Jekyll Island (The Fed)

divided Fed is reluctant to cut rates CNBC

Of course the entire MSM including Faux News, blames Trump tweets for the sell-off.

We saw a shakeout in futures trading overnight, but I think that doesn't count, and especially on light holiday trading volume. I'd expect light volume to continue into the end of the month, and 3rd quarter window dressing. "Never sell a dull market", especially after 3 weeks of sell, going into a holiday. 

We're already seeing a rush into high beta names, and the $SPHB should be an easy trade, into a right shoulder. 

$SPHB - 


$RSX - Russia has really been beaten up over the past month, and the gap also fill there. There's also a leveraged 3X Russia bull. I suspect it's thinly traded, so used limit orders....  

 If you insist on trading US markets 

The NASDAQ looks like it's finished consolidating, in wave A, and I'll be adding this chart to the public charts area. 



$SPX We're seeing the same whipsawing in  a similar range (seen in purple), so trade back to 2928, and maybe it can break out this time.


 Looks like this on the 10 min chart 

Take care, 




Friday, August 23, 2019

Short Covering Rallies & Capitulation Tops

For key support/ resistance, and breakout targets, on the $SPX, and the $VIX, see yesterdays Market Update. I'm seeing futures down only slightly, at the moment - on some of the worse news to come out of China in a long time - but it seems like squeezing the short sellers, into the Labor Day Holiday, is what's really on traders minds.

The DOW broke out yesterday, but there is a red flag, where we closed on a reversal candle, just above support. See my word of warning in yesterday's blog, but also keep in mind, things probably won't be different this time, as I wrote about last week.

This is what routinely happens going into a Holiday:

1. First, get everybody bearish, by pulling the rug out on fake news, and that's easy when Wall Street owns every network. 

2. Then drive stocks up into every OPEX, and Holiday short covering. We've seen this story before. Short-covering explains the low volume, and many sellers are already on vacation.

The 2018 Dec. Swoon, was the exception to the rule, but you can see what happened to anyone foolish enough to sell on light holiday volume. The subsequent rally was not only massive short covering, but money being put to work at the beginning of the new year, and all with the help of the Plunge Protection Team, just like we saw in '09.  

Mnuchin Calls Plunge Protection Team; Stocks Soar One Day Later (Forbes)

Of course that story was quickly buried by the financial fake news media, who wants us to believe the fake recovery remains intact, and technically it does, and the powers that be have no choice, but to hold the market up.


Capitulation Tops

We've only seen a couple so far, that I'm aware of.

1. Cypress Semiconductor - This is what capitulation looks like. Are you sure you want to be a short seller? I would buy Puts years out, on this one. This is a funny looking chart, but I didn't have time to update it.

2. Target - Low volume short squeeze, beyond any upside target. Karen Finerman owns this one, but smart enough to buy some Puts, but probably not far enough out.

Wow, it's 10 min before the opening bell!
 Looks like we're going to at least get another pullback, and I'll be charting the open in real time, in my Public Charts area.

Catch you later, and have great weekend.


Thursday, August 22, 2019

Market Update 8/22/2019 - Only seeing A Little Pullback After Yesterday's Bearish Warning

I lost internet for several hours yesterday, and that threw a monkey wrench into my ability to get caught up with my charting. Luckily the market behaved itself while my connection was down.

The 1 min continues to work, but I thought it would be good to compare the 1 min. view, to the 10 min view, because I'll be damned, if I can't find the short term trend on the 1 min chart, and I'm all about the short term trend. Sure the market could crash, next week, but I'm not going to fight the short term trend waiting for dooms day. 

$SPX - continues to pullback from my resistance line. We saw a false breakout in AH trading, and it looks like we're going to test that resistance at the open.

There's support at the 2895 level, and I think it'd be good to fill the gap, left behind on the 19th, and Jack-hole isn't until tomorrow. "Don't fight the Fed", as they say. 

$SPX - looking at the 10 min. view -  It's a busy chart, but as you can see, there's support around that 2900 level, at my pink line, and more support at the 2884 level 9 at the top of the previous channel line - seen in black, and now you know why the bid was raised.

Word of warning - if the price action were to fall back into the black channel, on a $VIX breakout, above the 17.25 level, then we could see panic selling, but for the now the market doesn't seem to care about inverted yields, or Hong Kong.   

 $DJIA - This chart is working a lot better, probably because it's not being driven by the hedge funds, and 1000's of bullish traders.

Now Let's find the next breakout point.

$SPX - DCS chart - That's going to look like a breakout above the 2940 level (the recent high), and then the 50 day moving average @ 2946.

 Again, you can see why the market was bid up (above resistance).... and if the market sells off in another panic, there's support at the lower channel line, at the 200 day moving average.

As you can see markets are pivotal here, so be vigilant, and I'll provide live updates in the public charts area, the best I can. My call is for a pullback to support, followed by a rally into Powell's Speech, and possibly beyond.

P.S. I leaving the bearish $SOX charts up, and next resistance on that index is 1531, and 1542 (a FIB target)

Good Luck, AA

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Market Update 8/21/2019 - Bearish Patterns Emerge

Bearish Patterns Emerge 


This morning I was up at 3:30 AM, and decided to get caught up on some charting. I called the pullback going into yesterday's close, and this morning we're seeing buyers come in at the $SPX 2900 level, but today, I want to look past the 1 min chart.  

Like I said yesterday, I don't like this rally, and don't trust the $VIX at these levels. The trend remains down, on the 60 min charts, and that's kind of a big deal!

We've basically been whip-sawing in a tight range, and that brings me to the $SOX chart.

$SOX - 30 min. view - shows the price action whip-saw into what look like a bearish wave B. If you don't know Elliott Wave Theory, a wave B is a counter-trend pattern, which is followed by a powerful wave C. If the bottom drops out and we start seeing lower recent lows, that will confirm it.  This triangle could be wave A, in a larger counter-trend rally, and if that's the case, we should only see a pull-back, but I'm reading this as a bearish wave, until proven otherwise. 


 I've added the 60 min. $SOX chart to the Public Charts area, and you'll see the same bearish channel on that chart, as you see above (in blue). 

In case you didn't know it, $SOX leads tech, like $TRAN leads the DOW, and if those can't lead the market higher, that's a red flag.   

$DJIA also trending down, in what looks like a bearish triangle. Once this pattern completes, we should get a nice tradeable rally, going into Sept window dressing. We could see a little washout beyond the end of this pattern, but the 25,100 level looks pretty good. 

This isn't a hunch I'm trading on, We've seen lower lows, followed by lower highs, and the pattern is self-evident. 

We saw a lower low on the $RUT, Energy continues to make new lows, and Oil still looks weak - despite this bounce - but we haven't seen lower lows on the $SPX. That's not to say we won't, but that leaves me a little confused 

$SPX - no lower low, yet 

The only other possibility I see is a possible Dow target of 26,600 in an expanded flat pattern. 

 Stay nimble, until we can confirm a direction. I suspect we're going to see a final washout, before money is put to work in Sept (going into the end of  3rd Quarter window dressing)  

The charts I have published in the Public Charts area, is only 1% of the charts I usually watch. I'll continue to switch the charts up as necessary. 

I see $SPX futures pressing resistance, so I get this update published ASAP. 

Good Luck, Traders 


Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Market Update 8/20/2019 - Will It Be Different This Time?

 Will It Be Different This Time?

If you've been trading for any length of time, I'm sure you've heard this phrase; "Is This Time going to be different"? It refers to a well established market trend, that always seems to work like a charm, until is doesn't anymore. 

Getting up to speed: The market managed to gain back all 800 points, it lost on Wed., and if you include the lower low on Thursday, it was more like 1100 points on the DOW, and 100 handles on the $SPX. 

Of course the Industrial Media Complex, doesn't like this rally, and won't report on it accuratly, because they want a recession. Joe Sixpack only hears about 800 point drops and China/ recession fears. Russia collusion , racism, and recession. Let's call that, "the 3 R's of American Journalism".

Last week I predicted that Germany would lead, and once again the charts are spot on, but that doesn't mean we're off to the races, but it is what it is, and I believe it could go higher, into this weekly OPEX. Remember, every market move revolves around the rigged Options market, just as we saw on Friday, but will it be different this time?

I didn't like yesterday's action, because the $VIX was obvious driven down, and the bid on the  S&P  raised above resistance. Tell-tale sign that the manipulators are back at it again. This is typically how it goes, but will it be different this time? 

If you remember last week, I was looking for support @ the 2910 level, when the market crashed 3%. Well, yesterday, that's exactly where we saw the bid raised in pre-market. This is no coincidence, and once again we saw this engineered in AH (after hours/ futures) trading. If you bought the open, then you only ended up around 9 points, but if you rigged futures, it was a nice gain. Funny how that works!  

So far, this rally only looks like a gap fill, from where they pulled the rug out last week, but I think this rally can extend a little further. Even I was telling folks to load up on Calls, last week.

It's not easy to find a pattern on the charts, and the trend remains down on the 60 min charts, while the trend is up on the short term charts, so I would remain cautious!

Here's what that 3 day rally, back to even looks like on a 10 min chart, and I wish I had switched this one out, for the 1 min chart - located in my public charts folder. yesterday.

This a much shorter term view, than the 10 min chart I have in my Public Charts area, but for now this is the trend. I may replace the 1 min chart, with the one above, since it's easier to to see the channel on this view. 

And keep in mind that once this rally rolls over, we're probably going to fill that gap left behind on the $VIX. Maybe that doesn't happen until next week, given that the bulls are likely going to get paid on this weekly OPEX. Could be different this time, but probably won't. 

$OIL worries me. We got a  dead cat bounce on Monday, and Energy lead... for a change, but there's a good possibility of another big washout, and I can't tell you if that happens in 5 min., or 5 days. See the $USO chart located in my Public Charts area.    

Speaking of Energy, look at Canadian Solar $CSIQ bumping up against major resistance!

$BIDU up 10% - had to check this chart this morning. Looks like a continuing crash. Other Chinese stocks don't look this bad, and I'm still expecting a massive snap-back rally at time point. Not sure this is it, but I think not.

 $DIS is accused of cooking the books, and I don't doubt it. This news may have been dropped in order to coordinate a pullback.
Looks like another major topping (megaphone) pattern in wave 5.

Gold: Continues to hold up, and that's a red flag, regardless of $VIX manipulation we typically see going into the end of every month.

$VIX is hammered down into the end of every month. Every (monthly) candle on this chart has a bearish tail on it, but will it be different this time? Probably not! 

This is how you know the market is rigged. This goes beyond (monthly) window dressing; and as long as they can keep up with this charade, investors are going to remain invested, and that's the whole point....

I've been kind of preoccupied with getting back into YouTube content creation, and that starts with re-learning the screen capture, and editing software.    

 Seeing a little pullback in real-time, and gotta get after it. 
Good luck this week, 

Friday, August 16, 2019

Market Update 8/16/2018 - Happy Friday OPEX

Happy Friday OPEX 

(options expiration) 

Reversal Confirmed


Got our reversal, as predicted in  yesterday's update, and not only was I right on the call, but the action played out on the 1 min, as well as can be expected. If you were watching yesterday's action, and following along, you might say it was "perfect".  

It wasn't until the final minutes of trading that I could confirm that the $VIX had dropped back into a the safety zone, and this is usually how it goes.

There was still a chance that the $VIX would break out this morning, and the bearish Options trades would pay, but that just wasn't meant to be. This means over-priced Puts, and (sold) Calls, are going to expire worthless. This is why I always say the monthly market action is all about OPEX.

 To review:

1. Predicted a reversal

2. Confirmed the bottoming pattern, and called the bottom in real time. 

3. Confirmed that the $VIX was signalling risk on at the close.

4. Reversal confirmed this morning

a. German $DAX reversal 

b. Dow breaks out above the 200 day

c. $VIX gaps down

This update ran past the opening bell, and I've had my hands full charting the action. 

10:15 CST -

$SPX - 1 min chart from my Public Charts area

Seeing support break below my pink line. Pink line with a circle on it is the stop hunt, so there's actually 2 lines of support on the chart. The blue lines, are a hypothetical bullish channel.Support is the breakout point @ 2863, and a possible gap fill fade. There's a good chance the gap on the $VIX fills as well. 

I think this rally has legs, and we'll see how it plays out next week. Maybe we get a pullback on Monday? On the other hand, $SOX may break out above the 50 day, and lead the NASDAQ higher!

I got charts to update, and other things to get caught up on. It's been been a bust week and TGIF. 

Have a great weekend!  






Thursday, August 15, 2019

Market Update August, 15th, 2019 - The August Swoon - Part 2

I ran out of time today, because I like to get these daily market update's completed, before the opening bell, so here comes part 2. If you missed Part 1, here's a link...

Quick update on this mornings action: 

We saw a little pop on better than expected earnings out of (China - trade dependent) Walmart, and good retail sales numbers. I thought China trade was an issue? Where's this "recession", every news outlet in the country was seen pushing, yesterday? Not just CNBC, & CNN, but every TV, and radio station!  "Biggest One Day Drop Of 2019", that's not saying much, and how does the constant fear mongering help the average investor?

Every time the market goes down, it's Trumps fault, and if there isn't a Trump tweet that can be blamed... then pull out the old "inverted yield curve" story, and run super-bearish reports (reruns) on your network at night. 

“CNBC Special Report: Markets in Turmoil” Airs Tonight at 7PM ET

Anything to try win an election, I guess, and Trump's right when he calls the Fake News Media, "The Enemy Of The State", and your pocketbook! 

Getting back to the real news:

Corn - yes corn! The little rows of yellow kernels, that grow on a cob? 
I'm not suggesting you should trade corn, but at least you can eat corn, unlike another yellow commodity, that rhymes with "mold", and this pattern may look familiar to you, if you've been following my Gold charts. I think no investor should own much Gold, and certainly not 10% of your portfolio, but I'll leave that to the financial professionals. 


We continue to build a base, as the $VIX remains above 21.50 support.  Yes, it's that simple, and if only there was a $VIX for every index..!

I noticed the DOW broke the 200 day ma, so we're probably seeing some program selling.

Remember what I was saying about watching the long term charts this morning. Anyone can watch the daily moving averages, and I shouldn't even have to alert to something so simple.

What's really significant, is that we're seeing support come in on the $NYSE! 

$NYSE - Daily Candlestick Chart 2 year view

That chart has been sitting in my Public Charts area for a week, and shame on you, if you haven't been paying attention!

Random Stock: 

$GE - down 12%

During all the time I was on twitter, did you ever once hear me suggest anyone to buy $GE stock? Uh, no, not even for a trade! Not even on a false breakout!

 How is it that my charts work so well, while investors consistently lose money calculating PE ratios, and listening to cable news shows? I see major support taken out on a bad earnings support, on a stock like Boeing (for example), and just have to shake my head. Trend lines are not that difficult to draw, and you can see what happens when they break. You can't ignore technical patterns in 2019.  

 Begs to question: Are people really this stupid? I think we are a becoming a, "Nation of Idiots", but I also think when folks hear people say things like, nobody can time the market; they give up too easily. This is hard work, and it takes more time than most traders are willing to invest. I've had my nose to the grind stone for over 10 years, and still making huge discoveries! 

A word of caution 

Not that I'm the least bit worried about the market at these levels, you can never be too careful.

Volatility remains high, and with the volume as light as it is, you could see a situation where volatility spikes, and there's no bid under the market. That's a recipe for disaster.

I'd would just tell you to trust the $VIX, and the long term charts.

$SPX DCS Chart. Key support (2622) tested last week. I don't see that breaking any time soon, but If that happens there's support at the 200 day average, around $VIX 29. 


One last thing I wanted to mention, was that John Nagarian, had some very insightful observations, on Fast Money (I think I was watching...), yesterday. He said, he saw a lot of  PUT buying yesterday, and a lot of buying of the August $VIX 30 strike, and Gold. He's smart enough to see this as a contrarian indicator, and tried to warn people, and that he sold his position in $GDX. I may not agree with most of his calls, but he has more experience than I do, and I gotta respect that! 

Take care, Traders

Market Update August, 15th, 2019 - The August Swoon - Part 1

I usually just blog on the fly, from memory, but today, I had to take notes with my morning coffee.

There's a lot I want to cover this morning, and I needed to remind myself to take a look at my $DAX charts, because the $DAX continues to be a great indicator for global markets! I can tell you the $DAX is testing support as I type, so no worries.

Today's Trade

$SPX - Looking at yesterday's action on a 1 min. chart, we seem to be trading into a bottoming pattern. Those of you who followed me on twitter, over the past few years, have seen this pattern play out before, and I haven't been wrong calling a major bottom in years.

There's a very slight chance that we could see the $VIX spike to 28.50, but I'm looking for it to break back down below 20.75, and keep falling below 20.  If those $VIX targets change, I'll alert to it on the 1 min public chart.

I don't like to publish my $VIX charts, because any financial terrorist, foreign, or domestic, could use this information to take the market down. Yes, I'm serious. We're in a trade war, and the globalist hate Trump, not to mention Wall Street is a den of thieves. 

For those of you who are new to this: We could see a little washout below the down turned triangle, but that's usually followed by a swift reversal - breakout above the pattern.  

So US markets seem to be trading into a bottoming pattern, after yesterday's give back - of the rally of the previous day. That didn't really come as much of a surprise, as I  had alerted to a possible retest of the bottom of the range, on Wed... but I sure didn't expect it to get done in a day! The volatility is ridiculous, considering how light the volume is. Some claim this is computer driven trading, but I think it's easy to hammer markets down on light volume, and big as an 800 point drop on the Dow sounds, it seems pretty orderly. It's not gapping down during the day, more like being walked down, similar to what we saw in Dec.   

$SPX - see the the annotation at the bottom of Wednesday's chart. alerting the bottom of the range

Longer Term 

As well as the 1 min chart is working, it's really important to have your long term charts in order, because otherwise you're not going to know when a long term trend breaks, and that's where you see the big move, 10% and more, sp I'm going to continue to add more long term charts - to the PC area. 

I'm seeing upturned bearish triangle patterns on most of my long term charts, and if that pattern continues, markets won't top out for at least a year, or more, but looking at the $DAX, it could be several more years!

$DAX - 20 year chart  - "Don't fight the trend", as they say in the business.

I'm out of time. This may extend into a Part 2 later in the day, because I didn't get to half of what I wanted to say! I didn't even get a chance to blast the dishonest financial fake news media!

Gotta go

Good luck Traders,

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Market Update 8/14/2019 - The Inverted Yield Curve

 The Inverted Yield Curve

This is the excuse the financial fake news is using, for today's pullback, and isn't it funny that the market can only pull-back in futures trading? I've noticed this more and more over the past year or so. The market tends to hold up into the close, only to be hammered down in pre-market trading, but the powers that be, have been manipulating futures for as long as I can remember - since the crash of 1987. This is why I keep telling folks to trade futures. If you were hedging yourself, overnight, you wouldn't be freaking out in the morning. It was very obvious where futures broke, as you'll see on the chart's below!

For those who don't know it, an inverted Yield Curve is a widely accepted signal that a recession is coming, within a year or 2. I used to listen to Bob Brinker's Money Report, on a local AM radio station... so I've known this for decades, but to use this long term indicator as an excuse for a pullback is laughable.

I suppose as long as Trump is in office, the cable networks are going to be the bearers of bad news, and they would rather see his team fail, than see the U.S.A. win. 

Yes there's a recession coming, and worse, and my timeline is currently for around this time next year. It's been 10 years since we've seen a bear market, so we're way over-due!

Today's trade:

Those who watch the Public Charts area, know I was charting live yesterday afternoon, looking for a pullback target, and I liked the 2910 level, but I'm seeing that being taken out... The FIB target around 2900 is also taken out. I do see support around the 2892, and 2888 level. We'll have to see what the open looks like, and I'll be charting the open, as usual. 

$SPX - I may switch out this 1 min chart, for the one in the Public Charts area.

This is the 1 min chart you're seeing up there now:

$VIX 20 is going to be the magic number. You'll see selling above 20, and this is why the PTB drive it above that level. Then they come in and drive it back down, once they're done loading the truck.
Also watch the $VIXY. The previous high was 24.74, and unless it can get above that level, fear has already peaked out.

$SPX Daily Candlestick Chart:
I believe the market can continue to melt up to that 2960 level, before pulling back. See the grey arrow on this DCS chart, and I should add this chart to the Public charts area.

Looks like like I got the direction on Oil right, and Gold miners are set to rally into a capitulation top.

I also got $SOX right, and that the thing I said to watch.... It was a monster rally!

We'll see what happens at the open.
GL Traders,