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Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Market Update 11/20/2019 - Possible Rotation Into Energy

Twitter feed is working again:

 Just as I get back into the swing of things, with the public charts area, and blogging daily updates, which, after the past couple months is finally running pretty smoothly, I get my twitter working again. Turns out they're console doesn't accept phone numbers from discount carriers, and they don't mention this in their, "help menu". Twitter support is non existent, so it took a couple months to figure out how to get access to my account again.

You can follow me on twitter, if you like, and I've added a button to the side menu. Twitter is mostly entertainment for me; a place to blow off steam, troll some fools, show-boat, expose "conspiracy theory's", and kill time when the market trades aimlessly, which is most the time. 

I'll provide a market update there, once in a while, because it's easier than updating the public charts area, or blogging an update. If my internet goes down, I might post an update there, from my mobile, but you probably won't be missing much, if you don't follow. 

I use twitter for personal, and business, so you may be annoyed at times, and this is especially true, if you're offended by politically incorrect free speech. My thought is.... If you like what I have to say, then nobody is forcing you to listen.

Warning: I'm pretty liberal with the (twitter) block button, so don't pester me, and especially in the morning. I'm happy to answer questions, but I'm not there to pump your position, or hold your hand.

The Energy Trade: 

Warning: Unless you're an experienced commodities trader, I won't be playing with oil, but gamblers gonna gamble :)

To review: We caught the last bounce in energy, or part of it, at least, and then I called the top, and told you I expected it to consolidate lower over the next few weeks, and here we are. 

I mentioned the energy trade in yesterday's blog, and then we just happened to see a nice washout in $WTI Crude, which closed below the 50 moving average for the first time in a month.  A gap back up above the 50 day, could set off a short covering rally going into next week.

I've provided a couple charts in the public charts area, and you'll have to trade those on the fly.

Maybe I'm a little early. Maybe we see another shakeout...

$USO  - If the chart - that's in the public charts area breaks, then look for support around 10.40 (easy to remember. I may switch out the chart that I added to the public charts area, with this 5 min view, depending on how it goes. $USO is also testing the 50 day ma, and that's a level to watch - 11.61.

$SPX:  See the #1 chart in the Public charts area.

Futures already bounced off the lower channel on that 10 min chart view. We like 2 normal days of trading left, before volume drops off a cliff next week, so I'm not expecting traders to put on a bunch of short positions.  We could see a run for the exits, but I think the market remains rigged until after Cyber-Monday, for all the reasons I mentioned in yesterday's blog.

ECB risk assessment came out this morning, and we already saw REITS sold ahead of it.  Now we're seeing a little snap-back rally. I have some great REIT charts, but I don't provide all my best charts in the public charts area. The best charts are worth every donation you make to this website, so if that's what you're interested in, add a note with your donation, or PM me in twitter. You get a lot for $30.

$REITS - look like a major top. See the little sell-off at my red line? This is how bear markets begin, very slowly at first. Nobody suspects a bear market.... investors never see it coming. That's my job...!   

See: Excessive risk-taking and falling bank profitability cloud euro zone’s growth, ECB says - CNBC

I remain very bearish, but it's unlikely we're going to see much selling, going into Thanksgiving. Still, keep your guard up, especially when the $VIX back-fills the gap, around the 12 level.

$SPX 60 min chart - nearly took out my 3130 target, yesterday

That's all I got.

Take Care,


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