Page menu

Monday, November 18, 2019

Market Wrap-up Sat. 11/16/2019 - Look ahead 11/18 - Adding Stocks

I made a couple errors in Friday's Update, which are now corrected. 1. I Forgot to add the $SOX chart... and I suggest you go back and review that. 2. I got the Date for Dec. OPEX wrong. It doesn't come until the 20th, 5 days before Christmas. That's significant! Watch....  

Wrapping up the week:

 Short Squeeze Friday - we got our explosive little (.07%) short covering rally, on news that Pelosi is considering taking up the USMCA trade deal. Maybe it took this long for the Congressional accountants to figure out how best the congress can profit, insider trading that deal, or maybe they've already been buying into this news for months? See: How the (corrupt) Congress Quietly Overhauled Its Insider-Trading Law - NPR

Of course the financial fake news would never report on Trump's historic USMCA trade deal. Instead they continue focus on Chicken, and Soybean purchases, promised in in Part 1, of in US/China trade negotiations. Media, and the market, also ignored Barr meeting with Trump, on National security threats posed by the National Security Threat, posed by certain Chinese technology companies.  

Here's something weird: CNBC's Michial Santoli, comes on after Friday's close, and makes an excuse for why the market continued to pop higher, going into the close, as if it wasn't supposed to? What is that about? Very shady dealings going on over there, I think.    

Look, stocks typically rally on a Friday, and on OPEX, so there's no mystery.... When I retire, I may just employ this strategy: Buy ahead of Friday, and sell ahead of Technical Tuesday, and spend most my time fishing, rather than charting, and blogging all the time. 

Regardless of the news: 

Long term:  

After reviewing my long term chart views, over the weekend, I can tell you; most US indices have finally broken out to new highs, minus the $NYSE. Not sure why that is, but I think the Wilshire 5000 is a better gauge of the broader market? Also see the revised $NYSE chart in the public charts area.  

$WLSH - this is what the new highs look like on the Wilshire. I know most money managers are worried about missing out on the next move higher, and maybe that believe alone can hold the market up for several more weeks/months, but the downside risk here is huge! On Friday, I said, "I don't see a crash coming", but there is a significant chance for a massive correction, any time now. Not an all out collapse, but a back-test of 2011 support.  Of course the MSM will call this a crash, and use Trump as a scapegoat, and there's nothing the PTB would rather do than destroy Trumps chances of re-election, but after a 10 year run, you should expect a normal correction, and a 61.8% retrace of the previous run is....    

Intermediate term: 

The $VIX is trading at dangerous levels. I suggest you have your sell windows open during normal trading hours.  

Still looking for a powerful wave C to give back all of the rally from August, and then some. If I'm right on that, then we should get a nice Santa Rally.  See the Dec OPEX date.

$NDX - Big Tech: See the stop-hunt, and the trap door I've placed on the DCS located in the public charts area. Few see what I'm seeing here, but there are obvious support levels, and then there are not so obvious ones. It was my former Trading Warrior Brother Dale Pinkert - and I only say
"former....", because the last time he had me on his show, I told him the market would probably hold up a couple more years, and that's not what the perma-bears want to hear. He probably won't have me back, even though I was right. So anyhow, My good buddy Dale over at Forex Analytix F.A.C.E. - is the one who first turned me on to the term "stophunt". As a seasoned Commodities trader, he knows markets overshoot all the time, so he recognized what I was doing on certain charts, even though I didn't have a name for it at the time. 

If you're unfamiliar with the term stophunt, you can think of it as the opposite of broken support, when markets overshoot to the downside. That would be a bear stop, or your buy target, once the market snaps back, or craws back above that support line. In the same way, when a market overshoots to the upside - above resistance - that resistance line becomes your stophunt.  

Typically when traders see stocks break out to new highs, they'll cover their shorts, or add to their bullish positions, and look for higher targets, and then when support breaks, they're left holding the bag. Don't be a bag holder.

Short term - I've returned the 15 min NASDAQ chart to the public charts area, but I would be watching the stophunts on the longer term charts, and have your sell window open. A 15 chart can break in 5 minutes, even at these low $VIX levels.   

I've run over on time, and see the $VIX up 8.5%. Not much selling, yet...

I've started adding some stock charts to the public charts area, and there will be plenty more to follow. More on that in the next update. 

Take Care,

No comments:

Post a Comment