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Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Market Update 11/19/2019 - Bears are calling this a "blow off top"

"Blow Off Top"

As I type this mornings update, I'm having some miner technical difficulties, with the format jumping around. Hopefully, I can get this thing finished ahead of the opening bell. Update: Had to reboot, after I was unable to load an image, updated FireFox. Everything running fine now, after wasting 15 minutes...

I've been suffering from insomnia lately, and it's not that I'm all that worried about the market, but I wake up with a dull back ache.... Thinking, maybe my mattress is too hard.  

So yesterday, I'm taking one of my legendary afternoon naps , and I hear this irritating voice coming from my television set.

...and I hear her say, "the bears are calling this a "blow-off top...". 

That's funny, because I was calling this a possible "overshoot", yesterday, and many technicians must be seeing something similar, but I wouldn't call it a "blow-off top".

Blow-off Top?

1. This doesn't even remotely look like a blow off top

2. The momentum is too slow for a blow off top.

$NYSE chart (candlesticks) - I consider the top in 2018  a blow-off top, because the upside momentum was strong, as it continued to overshoot, until the rug was pulled. That was a classic blow-off top, in my book.

Sure it looks toppy here, on certain chart views, but I'm not married to any one chart view, and this is in part, what differentiates my winning technique, from everybody else's. Even the above chart is different than the one in my public charts area. 

The gap target:

See the Gap target on the above chart? I'd say, that's probably Government Sachs, or the racketeers at J.P. Morgan;  I'd say it's more than just 1 hedge fund, maybe a collaborative effort...; working on "getting back to even"? James Cramer used to work for $GS didn't he?

 Today's trade:   Calling today's continuing breakout was super-easy!  Once I woke up my afternoon nap, I had like 30 min. to chart the close, and that's all it took to determine this rally was going to continue into today, and possibly into next week. See the notes on the #1 chart (below), located in the Public Charts Area. See all the charts.

$SPX - continues to break out

Here's how I did it:
  1. Market continues to be stair-stepped up. The trend is up
  2. $VIX closed below resistance. manipulation continues 
  3. Dow broke out, and closed above support.  Let's see if I can find that chart
$DOW - I believe this is the chart view I was watching at the close.

So I was obviously early calling the top on this rally, but you gotta figure you're going to be early at least once, or twice, and then you're probably going to get it wrong again, and especially given the fact that the market is being rigged higher in order to help holiday (retail) sales. Market us = retail sales up. This the plan. It's not like we're trading a free market any more; one in which the market gets overly bullish, and then corrects. Right now it's prime time for manipulation, and news won't matter, until the powers that be give the signal to trash trash the market again. It's totally rigged, like everything else.

Of course certain sectors can start leading the way down, and maybe already are... Energy continues to build a base, so we could see that sector lead a rally, as other sectors continue to hold up. More on that in another blog.

The $RUT isn't exactly tanking, so we may see a retest of the highs there.
See the $IYM chart, in the public charts area, since the $RUT is no longer available at

A glitch in the matrix:

Not only is the $RUT missing, but most of the data was mysteriously missing from the very short term $SPX charts, at, yesterday. Very odd 

Opening bell ringing.

Later, AA

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