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Saturday, April 9, 2016

Market update week of April 9th 2016

Market update week of April 9th 2016

I'd like to get in the habit of providing weekly updates, and that starts today, Saturday April 9th, 2016, but more importantly I'd like to get new followers @3xtrades (our new trading platform) up to speed and on the same page. I'm also going to give you some tips on how best to use the information I provide. 
1. As most of you probably already know the $VIX is our most important indicator, as laid out in a previous blog entitled "Trading the $VIX". If you missed that, you're missing a lot, so be sure to check that out, and if you've already read it, read it again. Always watch the $VIX!

2. Watch the public charts area, because I can't watch everything all the time. Using the legend in the PC area, you can look at - for example - the current 2h DOW chart trading in a bullish channel (in blue), and recognize a bullish pullback when you see one. Friday's close. 

Here's the same thing on a daily candlestick chart on $NDX

Anyone claiming the trend has reversed is peddling fiction, and if the $VIX gaps down below 14.50 on Monday, we're going to see the shorts get squeezed again this week. 

3. For all the reasons mentioned in the previous blog, I like to do market update's on the fly, prior to the opening bell, and into the first hour of trading, as I'm reviewing, & updating the charts, with a fresh eye. If my updates are too distracting, you can always mute me at any time, and then un-mute after the open, and review my work after the opening bell. I plan to provide more tips, and guidelines in a future blog.

Getting back to the trade: Wednesday we killed it! Thursday we got our pullback, but it was like pulling teeth. Finally in the afternoon - we saw the $VIX break out above resistance (16), as the 15 min $SPX chart broke, but still no panic selling. I suspected that $VIX breakout was a head fake - heading into Friday - and sure enough the market rallied the next morning, as the $VIX fell back below 16. 
Friday, the market "behaved itself" - as I put it - while I took care of some administrative duties. We faded the rally at the open, and the market pulled back into the close. Oil rallied to the target. Gold and gold miners are a different story, and something we're watching closely. The divergence between gold and the miners is obscene! I'll have more to say on that in the next blog, as OPEX approaches.

So let's say, even if I was 90% right over the past 3 trading days, which is incredible; you still had to be a very nimble trader in order to make any money trading this choppy market. If you had your heart set on trading gold you probably made nothing. There are a lot of variables to contend with.  

As far as my broader market outlook goes; I remain short term bullish, and long term bearish. Intermediate term (next 3 months) is still unclear. I could post a lot of conflicting charts here, but I don't want to confuse folks... and to clarify any conflicting tweets; when I say "bullish", and throw a 15 minute chart out there, I'm talking about the next day, or 3, not the next few weeks/months.  
Keep your power dry, because markets remain choppy, and pivotal. Buy the dips, and sell the rips. This is far safer than waiting for me to call the absolute top. Picking tops is far more difficult than picking bottoms.  The big risk is to the downside, but as long as the $VIX (our fear gauge) remains contained - no fear (intraday). If you're nimble trade it, if not sit on the sidelines this week. 


Thursday, April 7, 2016

Stock Market update - Yuge Announcement

Launch of @3Xtrades

First: Wednesday's trade 4/6/18 was incredible. Called for a rally in oil and biotech (a double) the night before, and the rest is history, but that's not the big news!


The Prelude

Traders, as most you already know there's a hotly contested election going on, and I'm a self proclaimed "political junkie", but at this point the ol' twitter feed has become more of a platform for Trump supporters, and conspiracy theorists, than for Traders. I mean, I've always had a mix of folks following me - on Twitter - for one reason or another, but it was getting to the point where I was afraid to post too many alerts, and charts, fearing I'd lose followers - 90% of whom don't even trade!

After you've been on twitter for a while, a funny thing begins to happen; you can end up with lots of followers, only to be left asking yourself, "who are these people and why are they following me?" There's also the issue of trolls (haters), and plagiarizers', not to mention the sharks (shady hedge funds), who would like to play us (retail investor/traders) for fools, and use us as contrarian indicators. Twitter is awesome for sharing information, but at some point you want a little privacy, and volume control. At least I do.

So, I've been kicking around the idea of building a website, like the one we used to have, for a while now, but running a website is a full time job, and somebody has to do the charting right? I even started playing around with some web templates, but it's just too much work for any one person - to be the technician and the web builder - as I learned a few years ago. Every minute wasted, blogging, website building, and managing members, is time that should be spent charting and focused on the technicals, and there's enough stress that comes along with this business as it is.   

The Announcement

New Game Plan: New private Twitter feed @3xtrades, not to be confused with the old one @3Xtraders. It's already up and running and a few old friends, and a few new ones, are already on board.

Better than a website:
1. Zero build time and zero frustration.  It took me a day to set it up;
2. Doesn't cost me anything out of pocket;
3. Market updates (especially in the morning) can be done on the fly, in real time. I used to spend two hours doing an extensive market update before each market open, and looking back on it now, I can tell you, "it was a big waste of time";
4. Allows me more time to focus on what I'm best at, charting;
5 Twitter loads quickly, and refreshes itself in real time.
6. It's very mobile friendly;
7. No lengthy and intrusive signup required to join. No 30 day free trial BS.

I guess the only downside might be that it's one more place folks have to go in order to follow me, and @3xtrades may not turn up in, "3Xtraders", search results.

To get in just: Updated 12/13/2016 - starting January 1, 2017, new followers must make a donation to follow @3Xtrades), click on the "follow button", and once I receive payment, and get the request I'll buzz you in. See the FAQ page in the top tabs menu.

Trading has somehow become my life's work, so naturally I want to protect it to some extent, and hope to one day be financially successful doing this. If that means I gain 200 loyal followers, and they each throw me a bone each month? Who knows, but if I give it all away for free, that's exactly the value people are going to put on it. 

Buy offering a private site, to serious traders, I hope to be able to provide membership quality service. If you're not happy with it, then nothing lost. I don't like being pressured into signing up for anything, as much for the next guy/gal. If you don't want to, or can't afford to support the cause that's fine too. I already have a few folks who send me recurring donations, so the new plan, is also a "thank you" to them.

If you still want to follow me on the old twitter feed, you are more than welcome, and if we share common interests that's great. For the folks who can't stand by views, then you're going to like @3xtrades for the simple fact that it's just charts, and technical analysis; no politicking, no conspiracy, no nonsense.  I'll still post a few charts to @3Xtraders once in a while, and talk about markets, but serious traders should follow me