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Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Market Update 11/30/21 - Ever Notice How The Market Can't Find A New Direction Unless Futures Markets Are Manipulated?

Ever notice how the market can't pull back unless futures markets are manipulated? 

And the same goes for snap-back rallies, like the one we saw yesterday. Futures were pumped ahead of the open, and markets rallied straight into the close.   

This seems to be the case, 99% of the time, as most gains, and losses, aren't had during normal trading hours, but rather in the middle of the night (US Time). This is great if you trade futures markets, but sadly, most of us don't.... 

When was the last time you saw a bearish, or bullish, reversal, during normal trading hours? Yeah, like never! Even breaking news seems to have little effect on markets, until after hours. I sometimes call this the "delayed news effect", but the idea that market reactions would be delayed, by more than 20 minutes, just doesn't make sense. 

This all goes back to what I was talking about, a few weeks ago, about Germany leading the US, and operation paperclip, having a lot to do with that.   

US futures manipulation obviously starts overnight, in Europe, so we're going to continue to get ahead of the trade, by analyzing foreign markets.  

In Saturday's update. I mentioned the "STOXX 50" index, but I think we may be better off using the $DAX as a guide, for US market direction. 1. I know it's a reliable indicator, and don't try to fix what's not broken, right? 2. I have to rely on an ETF, to chart the $STOXX, and I'm not sure how reliable that is.   

The STOXX is still a good indicator, and worth watching, but it looks like the 50 week ma, has already been taken out.  

Support at the lower end of the - expanding triangle - pattern - seen on the chart below -  @ $4000. I doubt that target is taken out in a straight line, unless this is a broadening top, and it's completed. I believe this is only wave 4, as you'll see some of my charts have already been annotated. I just don't bother taking the time to annotate Elliott Wave patterns like I used to. 

Watch the $DAX!  

$DAX Watch for a bullish back-test of the 50 week moving average, which is trading today at 15,129.87. I would also watch the 15,000 level, since that's a big psychological support level, as well as clear technical support, back in 2021. Also notice the obvious pullback target, on the covid hysteria, and the massive broadening top pattern on this 12 year chart.  


China has continued to sell off since the last time I mentioned it, but I'm kind of liking it here. 

$FXI - The chart speaks for itself, and the holidays is not a good time to be shorting anything, including China. Looking for the $FXI to rally, off this gap fill target, and back to the top of the range. 

Yesterday's Trade

I tied to warn folks yesterday, that if they had missed the boat - on yesterday's rally - to sit on their hands, rather than chase it, and in hindsight, we're obviously not "off to the races", yet.... 

Oil and energy was sold, not tech, so those who rushed in to buy the already overinflated,
"Cramer bubble", may be in for a rude awakening!  

 Most everything else you need was tweeted out yesterday, and pinned to my twitter main page: 

If you missed yesterday's updates, just go to the one embedded above - in twitter - and scroll through the updates I added during the day. There is a ton of valuable information there, so much so, that I'm a little surprised at the lack of donations being made, to help support my work.

Look, I even give out $VIX targets, like the one below, and don't even get so much as thank you. 

$VVIX - was hammered back below res. on Monday. Market will sell-off above 135. Res. looks like around 155. 

Good luck, AA 

Saturday, November 27, 2021

Taking A Close Look At The Black Friday Pullback

From a blog not too long ago, you may remember "a one day sell-off, does not a trend reversal make" (link).

Looks like the powers that be, took advantage of the light trading volume - on Black Friday - to take Oil down, and back-fill some gaps, which were left behind back in Oct. Of course CNBC and the other Fake Financial News Networks used the new Covid variant as the reason global markets sold off, but they have to drop a news bomb in order to help panic investors.       

$INDU (The Dow) - typical gap fill target - bullish  

The $VIX broke out slightly higher than the red line targets, that I threw out there in Wednesday's update, but that's to be expected on a full blown bear raid. Regardless of the $VIX strength, we didn't see selling accelerate, into the close. In fact I covered most my short bets, and put some money to work, and took the afternoon off. It wasn't until Saturday morning - the time of this update - that I realized I had left the computer on.

Most the damage was in the Oil market, and it's no wonder, since the globalists are freaking out over inflation. I suspect the big banks, or even the IMF was behind this cowardly holiday shakeout, but who knows...?  

$VIX - continues to trade in a massive bearish channel. 

$SPX support still looks like 4545, The previous high. Not sure we'll even see that level tested  

$OVX (Oil $VIX) - If you're going to buy the dip in Oil, then you're going to have to watch the $OVX. 
I looks like it already topped out on Friday, and that's where I alerted to the bottom. Now res. looks like 71.50. That's still super high, so we could still see some more choppiness, this week. 


Brent Crude Oil - after an 11% decline on Friday, I wouldn't be surprised to see it take a few days, or even weeks (of sideways consolidation) to get it's legs back. Support looks like $71. Still trading in a bullish channel. 

Technical support on WTI crude is the 200 day moving average (broke) @ 69.72, and the 50 week moving average @ 66.64, with an April 2022 target of 98.50 

It's easy to find those targets using any free charting program, and while you're at it, check out the moving averages on the $USO (US Oil Fund), and you'll see why ETF targets are less than reliable. 

Airlines were also taken down, and that was no surprise, and I'm liking the $XAL 100% more than the rest of the rigged market. 

$XAL (Airline Index) - finally pulling back to the target I laid out weeks ago. Shame the controllers need to push fake news stories, and take stocks down on a Black Friday, in order to achieve their goals.

Not saying the African variant is fake, but the powers that be have been pricing it in for months, and what happens in Africa stays in Africa. The Covid headlines are getting old.  


I suppose $JETS is also a buy, but I can't seem to find the chart. 

$USD - this reversal was no doubt a surprise to some traders. This is why I say the African variant news has been priced in for months. The $USD is the real safety trade, not gold, and why has the fake news been ignoring the dollar strength? Did the people behind the scenes have something to hide...? 

There was a time - not so long ago - when I used to looks at the charts - in hindsight - and ask, "do the charts predict the future", because this certainly can't be coincidence? But it's just that most news is manufactured, and like most of what we see reported as "breaking news", is engineered. Climate change, engineered. Covid crisis Engineered. Even the Virus itself was created in a lab.  

CNBC started the day - on World Wide Exchange - covering for the sellers by claiming traders were going to be away from their desks, but "the machines" were going to sell the market. Believe me, machines didn't start manipulating markets in Europe, in order to take US futures down. This was a coordinated effort. 

$RUT - nice take down 

MicroCaps - down 4% for the week, yet still being propped above support - above the top of the channel. 

Betting stocks are going to break down, and sell-off into the end of the year is utter foolishness, but looking at the above chart, Wall Street will have a real reason to sell, in 2024. It will probably be another manufactured reason, like Trump winning again, or a giant asteroid purposely directed towards earth. They're already developing the technology....  

Another thing to watch is the Stoxx 50, trading above the stophunt (my pink line), @ the 50 week moving average. In a real market crash, these stop-hunts will be taken out at the open, as we saw during the covid shakeout 2020. 

Take Care, AA


Wednesday, November 24, 2021

The Market Continues To Move In A Predictable Fashion

 The market action is really dull, as expected. It took several hours for the $SPX to pull back to support, and this morning we're seeing that support retested, as I predicted, going into yesterday's close. 

I've taken down all the short term charts in the public charts area, except for the (above) 15 min. $SPX chart. Those charts served us well, but as yesterday's selling accelerated, those charts started to break, and we just have no need for them anymore. 

Knowing which timeline to watch is important, and only comes with experience. It's taken me years to get a good handle on that, and it can still be a struggle, when volatility goes through the roof. Traders who only rely on a 15 min view are completely lost, when volatility gets much above 20. This is the reason I have 20+ different $VIX charts. When a chart breaks, I already have another one, I can rely on. In a market crash, I can go to a longer term chart, and find support, without even trying.       

Yesterday was the highest volatility we've seen since early Oct., yet a 5 min $VIX chart continues to work. that's highly unusual, but things could change in an instant.  

At $VIX 20+ you can easily see 100 point moves on the $SPX . , yet the market continues to move like a snail, and it seems like the $VIX was being held, just above that magic number yesterday, just in order to shake out some short term traders, and trigger some sell orders. 

$VIX (5 min.) - volatility is still expected to come down, and stay below 20, heading into black Friday 

We did see some panic selling in tech, and the QQQ's is an ugly tape. 

QQQ's - slightly oversold, but this 10 min. chart could continue to break. This chart view is a good example of what happens when a short term chart becomes worthless, and you don't have several other timelines to relay on.  

If the powers that be decide today is a good day to pull the rug out, and cause a market crash, all they need to do is break the top of the channel on my DCS chart, but I think they'll wait until after Thanksgiving.

$VIX upper resistance 

If we do see a little panic selling today - on a higher $VIX - then my line in the sand - as far as the $VIX is concerned - is 26.50, and around 127.5 on the $VIX of the $VIX ($VVIX). 

Gold looks like it could get a nice bounce here. Posted the chart on Twitter. 

I'm also watching gold miners again, and added a couple chart views to the Twitter (pinned tweet). 

That's the place to find a link to the daily blog, and any intra-day updates. 

Oil looks like it could consolidate a little lower here, and even back-test the 50 day, after yesterday's big breakout, and If you failed to get the trade right in the first place, then it could be difficult to find a good entry point. In other words,  it look like "you missed the boat". The bullish Oil Chart was blogged yesterday. 

Biotech has been beaten down pretty hard over the past several months, so you may find a nice snap-back rally there... but I can only cover so many sectors at once, and still haven't gotten around to charting biotech. I'll try to update that sector next month, if I see it building a base. 

If I don't see you again on Twitter, have a happy Thanksgiving.

GL, AA  

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Ultimate Proof The Stock Market Is Rigged

 Ultimate Proof The Stock Market Is Rigged 

This is an interesting market to observe, because we recently saw the $VIX hammered down, going into Nov. Options Expiration, and this (beating (shorting) the $VIX down) was extra easy, because there are few traders who want to sell (short) going into a holiday. This sort of manipulation (on light holiday volume, and around OPEX dates), has been documented, on this blog, well 100 times.  And it's not just equities markets, but commodities, and probably currency markets, as well. 

Here's Ultimate Proof the $SPX continues to be manipulate:

Last week we saw the $NYSE pullback, while the $SPX was intentionally run up. This is done using certain stocks which drive the $SPX. Which stocks were used to do this, I couldn't tell you, but all you have to do is compare the short term $NYSE chart, to the st $SPX chart, located in the public charts area. Could be the NYSE holds more energy names, but well diversified indices should move together regardless....   

$NYSE - See the recent pullback 

$SPX - no pullback. In fact it was driven to new highs. 

Even the $WSLH didn't break out to a new recent highs. See the chart for yourself - in the public charts area. 

But that's not all! 

Gold was taken down using the $GLD, and I suspect the only reason this fund was created, was to continue to manipulate gold markets. 

$GLD - was taken down precisely below the 20 day moving average (the green line). Lucky for me, I was 3X leveraged short gold, and have been short since I called out the trade, last week, or was it the week before? Anyhow, I can't complain...  

Oil also taken down in an obvious bear raid, on Friday.  

$USO is taken down below the 50 day moving average, triggering forced selling. Monday the rally was sold at the 50 day. Not sure if the algoes are programmed to do this, once the 50 day is broken, but that don't really matter. I think Oil will continue to consolidate below the 50 day, until it gaps up... just as it gapped down. It's quite a racket! 

See the $DAX and other European indices down over 1%, and US markets not down at all? Pure manipulation. 

$VIX - will come back down, and the market will remain propped up, until the bulls decide to take profits again. I don't see the market selling off, or rallying much, and that's a good opportunity for the criminal cartel to take profits. Drive stocks to overbought, forcing the bears to capitulate, and take profits. Rinse and repeat. 

Speaking of Bearish capitulation. No sooner than I updated the $TECS chart, we saw profit taking in the tech sector. 

$TECS - bear capitulation below the lower end of the channel, followed by a sharp reversal. 

 Now what? 

Unless the $VIX is allowed to run above 20, we won't see a lot of selling, an that's the whole point of running stocks up into a holiday. It's easiest to manipulate markets, on low volume. This may even explain the timing, on the supposed release of 60m barrels of oil from the SPR  

US to release 50 million barrels of oil to ease energy costs AP

$VIX res. 19.17. Support - at the lower end of this tiny pattern - around 17.60  

Take Care, AA 


Monday, November 22, 2021

Market Update 11/22/21 - Holiday Trading

 Trading into the Thanksgiving holiday, should prove to be pretty boring. We could see the Dow rally off support, but lately we've only seen tiny daily moves, of less than 1%. 

Could see Crude oil rally into the end of the year. 

$UCO - Bloomberg Ultra Crude Oil - can you believe that CNBC was reporting oil in "bear market" territory on Friday? I don't call a 10% pullback in Oil a bear market. 

Watch for Oil to trade relatively flat today, as it builds a base.

I put out a basket of beaten up stocks on Twitter, on Friday, basically just to see if they're attacked by the hedge-funds who follow me. Follow this link to all the names I mentioned. 

Here's another link to the same tweet.

 The reply to that twitter post, contains another ticker symbol, and the reply to the next one, and so on.... I think there are 6-7 in total, and I may add a page on this site to list them, and update them. 

Good Luck, AA 

Friday, November 19, 2021

Market Update 11/19/2021 - $SPX Led Higher by Big Tech

 $SPX Led Higher by Big Tech 

That was the headline I read yesterday, which is unusual, because big tech usually rallies the DOW. 
I know Materials stocks were down yesterday, but not exactly sure what else leading the way down there. 
Basic Materials - called out last week 

Yesterday's trade went about as predicted; even though I had to update the 10 minute $VIX chart, fear and volatility remained relatively low, and the trend (lower) remains intact.    

 NVIDIA retested the top of the channel, and that lifted the $SOX, which in turn rallied TECH higher; as Energy, the Russell 2000, Financials, and China continued to sell off. 

$NVDA - perfect chart updated from yesterday morning's blog.  

In hindsight what we're seeing is another series of sector rotations, and I suspect that once we see profit taking in the tech sector, money will flow back into financials, energy, small caps, and even China. 

This is a prime example of how markets are rigged; one sector at a time. In a healthy economy, you could see every sector rally, but nowadays everything is an illusion. The majority of stocks are not making new highs, and this has been the case since 2008, and bullish sentiment actually peaked in May. This is not a healthy market, or a free market; it's an elaborate scam. 

New Highs vs New Lows - 

The majority of stocks are not making new highs, and this has been the case since 2008, and bullish sentiment actually peaked back in May. This is not a healthy market, or a free market; but an elaborate scam, perpetuated by a banking cartel, and our crooked government. Don't believe me? Read the chart.  

Since tech has continued to lead... I though I'd draw up a new $NDX chart. 

$NDX - DCS Chart - We saw pretty good buying volume yesterday, but we only saw a retest of the top of a bullish channel. My guess is it will be propped above the upper channel line, so that the criminal cartel will be guaranteed to collect on their Call Options, on this OPEX Friday. There's always a slight chance that we see a violent reversal today, but we still wouldn't see much downside, as nobody want to go into next week short. 

The #QQQ looks pretty much the same. And you can see that the #NASDAQ would have to give back more than a weeks worth of gains, to even break support. Not going to happen, and that's the whole point of pumping the market into an OPEX Friday, ahead of a holiday. Whoever said, "crime doesn't pay", never worked on Wall Street, post 2008.  

My guess is we're going to see a slow motion pull-back on lower than usual volume, and volatility, similar to what we just saw in Energy, and financials. It was so insignificant, it wasn't even news worthy, and although I was short both these sectors, I had to wait a little too long, for the pay off, and really made nothing on those trades. 

It's going to be a rather difficult market to predict over coming weeks, with mixed markets, and the market controllers wanting to end the year on a high note. It's really going to be tricky. 

I think Financials, and energy will get a bounce, before seeing another washout, and that could end with a rally into the end of the year. To beat the crooks you have to think like a crook.  

Good Luck, AA 


Thursday, November 18, 2021

Market Update - 11/18/21 - NVIDEA News Dump Used to Help Lift Markets

Some will claim, that NVIDIA's earnings were better than expected, and that's "helping to lift the stock", and the entire semiconductor space, but this news has been priced in for months - since early October, to be precise. 

$NVDA - Earnings has been priced-in since Oct. Positive earnings news is released, one day before Nov. OPEX, in order to hold the stock, and the entire semiconductor space up.... 

The level of manipulation in the Options Market should be obvious to anyone who's paying attention to the Options Expiration Dates, yet CNBC goes so far as to have guests on who claim options markets actually follow the stock action; even when Jon Najarian uses unusual options activity to predict market outcomes, and advises others to do the same, because he knows this method works. The big money knows what is coming weeks/months, in advance. 

There's really no way to know for sure if Options are bought (at light speed), by quant trading programs, BEFORE a stock is run up, or beaten down (in a bear market)... so you really gotta wonder what CNBC's motivation is for trying to debunk the idea that markets are being manipulated, on a monthly basis, and it only confirms in my mind, that they are not to be trusted. 

CNBC would probably try to explain away the fact that the Covid crash started the Monday, after 1 OPEX, and concluded exactly 1 month later on the next one. 

As far as the market action this morning: 

Looks like I got it right again, as $VIX tested resistance yesterday, and knowing the market is manipulated going into every OPEX, and ahead of every holiday. Low volume, and volatility, is prime time for market manipulation, and short squeezes - another type of market manipulation that CNBC constantly promotes. In fact they have some guy on twitter who does nothing but pump heavily shorted stocks, every day.  

$VIX - 10 min chart - located in the public charts area. It's not too difficult to imagine what's going to happen as we trade into another Black Friday, next week.   

I'm a little concerned that we're about to see a cyprus style financial collapse, looking at some of the financial charts, and the continued warnings from Janet Yellen. The libs want a collapse, so they can take everything over. I don't really have time to get into that topic, but I would try to make a cash withdrawal, before there's a run on the banks, or worse, a banking holiday. 

In related news: 

European Court dismisses compensation claim in Cyprus 2013 deposit-grab (reuters)

Yesterday I pointed to what looks like a broadening top pattern on the $DAX, and I'm seeing the same thing on the $NYSE. 

$NYSE - This looks like a broadening top pattern. I wouldn't be long anything for more than a day. 

Take Care, AA 


Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Market Update 11/17/21 - Possible bearish Nov. Friday OPEX Outcome Possible

The market continues to act strangely, as of late, basically ignoring the elevated $VIX. One reason could be that Calls are being sold, as the market is allowed to be run up, in preparation for a big dump.  

OPEX is only in 2 days and as far as I am concerned, the market bulls have not paid for protection, so this could be one of those rare OPEX dates, where volatility explodes, in a surprise sell-off. 

Although it's possible that the rug is pulled out this Friday (OPEX), it's far more likely, that we're going to see stocks hold up for another 2-3 days, because the manipulators are bullish, and the bulls usually win, especially in a rigged market, ahead of a holiday. As I said yesterday, the market could be held up into the end of the year, just to help Joe Biden's approval numbers.  

I did manage to catch a little short squeeze in Natural Gas yesterday, and I was up 11% in my $BOIL, when I finally took profits. So I made more in one day, in that trade, than the #SPY bulls have made in the past month.  

NatGas - alerted to the fact that it was short term bullish, on Monday. Nobody liked that tweet, and probably most traders didn't make out, like I did. Sometimes it pays to be the contrarian, and yesterday was one of those days. 


In the news: 

Germany Hits New Infection High As Fourth Covid Wave Rages (

So why is the $DAX green? Because it's not time to pull the rug out, yet.... 

Also still waiting for the top in the $USD, and that top should coincide with bullish ($USD) News. 

We're seeing the $USD pierce the 85.979 level this morning, and that's looking awfully toppy to me. 

$USD  - counts 5 waves    



Also looking at a possible top in $SOX

$SOX - looks like a suckers rally into a headfake wave "B". Powerful wave C to follow - possible 20%+ daily moves in $SOXS! 


$SPX  - Support looks like 4545 - easy to remember 

Good Luck, AA 

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Market Update 11/16/21 - Investors Are Being Played Again, as Bankers, and Politicians, Employ Stall Tactics

 Looks like the market is going to remain propped up, on the promise of Biden's decision on whether he is going to re-appoint Powell - as Fed chair - or if he's going to appoint a woman - for purely politically correct reasons . See: "We Need More Women in Leadership at the Fed" MsMagazine 

This uncertainty alone is enough to leave the market in limbo, and the kicker is, that he (Biden) is not expected to announce his decision until Thanksgiving. It's all about the timing isn't it? They've already been milking this story for 2 weeks!  I feel sorry for anyone who's feels the need to trade the broader market, heading into the holidays. 

Home Depot reports blow-out earnings, so the supply line story, and the inflation story, both fall apart. 

But notice how $HD is hardly even up, on a 10% earnings beat? That's because the good news has been priced in many times over - just like I said yesterday - and all the market needs now, is a good reason to sell. 

The market has already opened. I got a late start this morning.  

We're still seeing the $VIX elevated, but it could come down and test the 16.15 level again, and fill the gap, that was left behind yesterday. These tiny moves are irritating to watch, let along trade, and I suggest you don't trade, as long as the market continues to ignore reality. 

Speaking of ignoring reality, The $SPX is also green. This is an anomaly; the $VIX up, and the market up, but strange things happen when trading into holidays. Another reason not to trade this market. 

Gold continues to hold up, although it's been whipsawing around this morning. 

$SOX leads tech, so of course that continues to be held up - in the top of the range. 

Looks like the $QQQ is going to be held above the top of the channel for a while. 

The $USD seems way overbought to me, and I'm seeing a throw-over out the top of an upturned triangle pattern, as I type 

$USD - this looks like it could be a good trade. Watch for a nasty reversal to occur shortly 

Now, I'm too distracted to blog. 

Later, AA 



Monday, November 15, 2021

Market Update Monday 11/15/21 - Is You're 401k Safe In This Bubble Market Economy?

 I don't have much time for an update this morning, but I'll be charting the $SPX line - in real time - at today's open, and updating all the chart in the public charts area.     

I suppose the $SPX could still test the 4700 level. as the $VIX is hammered below 16.24 support - at today's open - but this rally has been weaker than expected. 

Friday is OPEX, so the market will likely be held up for the rest of the week, and quite possibly even for  the rest of the year. Perhaps the controllers only want to hold the market up into good Friday, in order to help retail, but that sector is in a bubble like everything else. 

Watch for a pullback today, or tomorrow, once the infrastructure bill is signed into law. 

We could see materials, and commodities dumped on that news, now that it's already been priced in many times over.  

Materials sector - as alerted to on Friday: 

OK, I just updated the $VIX chart - located in the public charts area - and it looks like the market is confused again. $VIX up, market should be down. 

Another thing that's in a bubble is your 401k. I'm not a financial advisor, but I can predict what's going to happen next, and I can tell you that you that a Roth IRA may offer you more choices than a standard 401k program. 

Good Luck, AA 

Friday, November 12, 2021

Market Update 11/12/21 - Big Trades Just Around The Corner!

First off we nailed yesterday's 4%  snap-back rally in Natural Gas, but I'm not convinced this rally is sustainable, and that's why I tweeted out the - perfectly timed - sell signal. 

The Big trades I see coming just around the corner: 

1. A powerful snap-back rally on the $SPX, after this weeks sell-off. In fact the $SPX could certainly retest the 4700 level.

$SPX - 60 min view - located in the public charts area. 

2. Gold! 

I don't usually get excited about a trade, and when trading commodities it's good to exercise extra caution, but what I found in $GLD (gold) chart yesterday, left me absolutely astounded, and even after sleeping on it, I can wait to add to my short position! 

Here's what I found on the $GLD chart: 

1. Tuesday's opening bid was raised above res., (seen at the  Fibonacci 61.8% retracement target). I can't say I've ever seen this, but the longer you do this, and the more you look, the more you'll find every market is manipulated, and 99% of that manipulation takes place in futures.

If the manipulators had not taken out this level at the open, the algos would've certainly kicked in an sold that target, but someone was desperate to drive gold into what is being sold to the public as an "inflation hedge".  

I don't doubt that the inflation story, as well as Wednesday's Labor Department statistics, have been completely fabricated, in an attempt to limit the damage the far left lunatics in our government can do.  

Sure. there's some inflation, thanks to the Fed printing a ton of money, and higher Energy prices. Home prices have also had a nice run, but this doesn't deserve the amount of coverage it's getting, or the run up in gold, which started well ahead of the market sell-off. Just remember, "there's always a (heavily manipulated/rigged) bull market somewhere". 

2. A long legged doji reversal candle. This is one of my personal favorites, as it often marks a major top. 

$GLD - the chart has already been returned to the public charts area. The price action continued to be held above the bulls stophunt (the black/pink line) yesterday, and I don't doubt it will do so again today, in order to manipulate the weekly options market. The first downside target looks like 170 - support. 

Will the sell-off in gold include gold miners? I'm not sure, and with Nov. OPEX only a week away, I wouldn't be surprised to see them hold up... 

Gold miners

$GDX Most of you are probably familiar with the $GDX, because this is the most watched miner chart, and it's tied to the most popular 3X leveraged miner funds, $DUST & $NUGT, but do you know what the top holding in the $GDX are? 

#1 top holding for the $GDX - Newmont 

$NEM  - this is one to watch 

     Yesterday, I mentioned that metals were going to crash, and then some idiot on Twitter, starts talking up Silver. I immediately blocked him, as distractions aren't appreciated. 

Here's one more target to watch 

$GPX - The $SPX Precious metals spot index. 

Get ready to sell metals  

Good Luck, AA 

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Market Update 11/11/21 - Yesterday's trade could not have gone better!

 After laying out our $VIX targets in yesterday's blog; the trading day started out kind of slow, as the $VIX continued to be sold at the 50 day moving average. I alerted to that fact in my twitter, and used this opportunity to get caught up on lost sleep. 

Fast forward to yesterday afternoon:  I wake up from a - 2 hour nap, eat a late lunch, and return to my trading desk around 2 PM CST; just in time to update the charts, and take profits on my long $VIX trade, which I let run all week, as well as some short bets. I was lucky enough to be short oil and gas producers during the entire route in Nat Gas.  

This morning we see the market rallying into Veterans Day as predicted, with of course Tech leading. 

I kind of like Natural Gas on this weakness, as Lukashenko threatens to cut off Europe's Gas supply. See 

You sanction us again? We’ll freeze you, Lukashenko warns Europe, threatening to cut gas supply. The Washington Post (link) 

Russia also sent 2 nuclear bombers to the boarder to back up those threats. Hopefully our cognitively challenged counterfeit president, doesn't do anything stupid. 

$UNG  (US Nat Gas fund) - I can't seem to find the lower end of the pattern on the $UNG, but I'm leaning towards a powerful Wave C in a declining and expanding triangle - aka a down-turned megaphone pattern. Perhaps I'm a little early calling this. Watch the 16.50 level, if we're not off to the races this morning. Could see another 3-4% washout, ahead of the weekend. 

And don't count on me adding that chart back to the public charts area. least until I know it's working. 

One trade I forgot to mention was the spectacular $EURO/ $GBP trade I called out a couple weeks ago! That chart has since been removed from the public chart area, after taking out the 200 day ma. Now it's since bounced off the 50 day ma. 

I think few people who are following me, even trade currencies, but these are important things to watch nonetheless. 

 I'll trade anything that moves faster than the $SPX. How many traders missed out on the bitcoin boom, while trying to time tiny moves on the $SPY? 

We saw the $USD retest the recent highs, along with gold. Something has to give, since metals are priced in US dollars. 

Could it be the news coming out of Europe that caused Gold (priced in Euros to rally)?  

$GPX - Watch for a nasty bearish reversal in metals - from rare earth metals, to Uranium, to gold.  

I'm out of time! 

And have a great rest of the week, 


Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Market Update 11/10/21 - The Historic Rigged Bull Market Continues

I started writing an update yesterday morning, but then came the massive Comcast Xfinity outage. Still no word on what caused it. 

I might attribute some of the selling we saw at yesterday's open, to the internet outage, but the market had continued to act stupid, in the face of a rising $VIX, several days prior...  


The 10 min $VIX chart still seems to be working pretty well, although it did break out of it's bearish channel, where you see my pink line. 

You also need to watch the 50 day moving average, because that's exactly where the $VIX was hammered back down, yesterday 

$VIX DCS Chart - I you remember, we were looking for a gap fill on the DCS chart, and now - weeks later - we're seeing it.  17.40 was the breakout point, and the next res. on the $VIX is the 200 day ma.
Of course when the VIX is hammered back below my red line, short covering will ensue.   

I don't really see the $VIX breaking out above 20, because that would trigger sell programs, and the market manipulators don't want that, but it could briefly run to the 200 day ma

Remember tomorrow is Veterans Day, so volatility should come down. This is the whole point of selling into a holiday; to squeeze most retail short sellers.    

Natural Gas was taken down, below the 50 day moving average, and that's all it took for it to lose 9% in a day. So much for the fundamentals.... 

$NATGAS - daily candlestick chart - NG continues to trade in some kind of range, or chop into a top. It's pretty unpredictable here, unless the lower pattern line (seen in pink) breaks. 

I'm outta time~! 

Good luck, AA