Technical Update - Weekly Wrap-up 4/24/2020

Seeing futures high which is no surprise on this weekly options expiration. Since every technical trader watches the $SPX, the thing to watch is the 50 day moving average.

$SPX - this daily candlestick chart can be found in the public charts area. Find the link to the PCA in the side menu.

The technicals are being driven to moving averages, and that's been the case, since most everything found support at the 200 week moving averages, back in March, so trying to find chart patterns is a waste of time.

I pointed this out in March, and the results a months later, using MERCK as an example.

Here's a good example of what I was talking about in yesterday's blog update. #MERCK - bought at the 200 week, sold at the 40 week. Machines have no fear. Still think #ElliottWaveTheory matters? pic.twitter.com/ddtCaciayw

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) April 15, 2020

 Several sectors have lead the biggest rally since the 1930's - all the usual suspects. Tech, including already over bought FAANG stocks, $SOX, and gov. subsidized Healthcare. Too bad there is no longer a 3X healthcare bear, but $SICK no longer exists.

$NDX - Again Check out the 50 day ma!

$AAPL "" This is one to watch

$AAPL #Apple pic.twitter.com/MVYZt3VVEw

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 23, 2020

$AAPL a month later

So, why are moving averages working? Could be computer trading, but the market typically back-tests the 200 day ma, after a crash into a bear market. Market makers, don't know where technical support or resistance is. They don't use resistance lines, because they couldn't chart their way out of a paper bag. Moving averages are simple, and when you drive the $NDX above the 50 day ma, it looks like a bullish signal to the average retail investors, and it's easy to unload your shares, as you see them continue to buy $AAPL.   


Miners have been one of the best performing sectors, of all, and you can see the chart pattern on the $GDM. Upturned triangles at the end of a long run, are super-bearish.  I think it can pull back, and make another run at the highs, before collapsing, but I'm looking forward to selling this sector. $DUST and $NUGT actually follow the $GDX, which is totally rigged, but the $GDX isn't going to decouple from the $GDM.

If you've never traded the 3X miner funds, you shouldn't. These are super volatile, and 15% swings are nothing.


The Dow is lagging: Hasn't even tested the 50 day ma (@ 24090.

It scares me when certain sectors are trading at recent highs, and other sectors - like energy - are trading near all time lows. It sets up for a re-balancing, and with the $VIX still trading in the uper 30's, bad things can happen. 

Longer term Dow chart - located in the public charts area - looks like a crawl back into the bullish channel, so this rally looks like a repeat of the 2019  rally, which ended in disaster.

Longer term, it's too soon to say, but the support levels I pointed out in my latest FACE interview continue to hold.

I'm outta time. Maybe I'll lay out my longer term outlook in a future update.

Have a Good Weekend,
AA

Market Update 4/23/2020 - Oil Falls to $10 as Predicted Less Than A Month Earlier

$WTI Crude Oil Washes Out Just Below My $10 Target!

Best Call of the Year!

Of course every network, including social networks, were seen trying to cause mass hysteria, over the collapse in oil futures. That's the unseen hand, hard at work, as usual. Never trust the #FakeNews
Bloomberg must have had 20 different experts on to tell us the Oil crash is going to continue. This after $WTI had already doubled off the $7 low.

See Analyst View: Oil Price Crash, what next? reuters 

Gold, and Gold Miners, I think. Hopefully not not the quadrillion derivatives market!  

The last major bottom we saw in gold miners coincided with the 2016 bottom in Oil.

I think the Gold bugs believe there's going to be inflation, or hyper-inflation, but the global lock-down is DEFLATIONARY, and there's no sign of the end of the lock-down, or a recovery.

Covid19 as it turns out it just an excuse to transform America in to Chinamerica - mass surveillance state - and Illinois has already purchased the syringes for mass vaccinations.




Last night former CIA operative Anderson Cooper was seen grilling the Las Vegas Mayor, because she sees this lock down for what it is, "insanity". Of course, a twitter storm followed, so you know it's a PsyOp (psychological operation).

Psychological operations are operations to convey selected information and indicators to audiences to influence their emotions, motives, and objective reasoning, and ultimately the behavior of governments, organizations, groups, and individuals.

The intelligence agencies has been using the main stream media for a very long time.
It's become to the point where it's a lot of work, just to differentiate fact from fiction, and it's taken several weeks, just to see through this covid19 illusion, a topic for another blog.

See:




As I blogged back in Oct., when I saw this coming:

This is fascism in America, and the corporate owned main stream media is marching in lock step! Scary stuff Linked

As far as the market is concerned, it continues to be propped up, and every rescue package helps.

We finally got a pullback on Technical Tuesday, but I could tell, by the afternoon, the $VIX (fear indicator) was going to be hammered down at res. again. This little snap-back rally probably continues into weekly options expiration tomorrow, but I'm expecting a much bigger pullback, to create a bear trap, ahead of more short squeezes already being planned, headed into Memorial Day weekend.

Gold looks like it could take out the $1800 level, looking a 1 min live chart, this morning

Longer term:

I'm looking for a pullback at some point, before retesting the highs again, maybe around August, and then the rug to be pulled out again, in order to influence the 2020 election, if there is an election.

It's hard to predict what the market is going to do 3 days from now, so follow my twitter page for the latest updates, and there's a link to the public charts in the side menu.

Take Care,
AA

Market Update 4/14/2020

Last week, "The Powers That Be", continued to squeeze the short sellers, on light Holiday volume. This is the new normal, but usually not to this extreme. The fake financial News is claiming last weeks 11% rally on the DOW - was the biggest since 1970's? Not sure if that's true, or not, or what relevance it has.... but they know they have to repair this market, or it's going to hurt GDP, and what better time to drive the market higher..?

As I said in my latest FACE interview, "nobody wants to get short into a holiday", and that's why I watch certain dates.  See: "$SPX Anthony showed major turning points at OPEX"

 No sooner than Monday rolled around it was time to squeeze the short sellers into the end of the week, and that's a good reason not to like this rally. It's not a natural market move, based on animal instincts, but rather, just another engineered short squeeze, in a rigged market.

Another reason not to like this rally, is that we're seeing markets driven to round number targets, and moving averages. 50 week, 200 week, 200 day ma. This isn't based on animal instincts, and it's difficult to find a pattern on the charts.

If this trend continues, then 2900 (at the 50 day ma), becomes the next target on the $SPX, and monthly OPEX is only a week away. Then 3000 (at the 200 day ma) going into Memorial Day (another holiday).

Earning season kicks off this morning with J&J, and $JPM, $WFC, leading into OPEX, and I saw  James Cramer, working the AM shift, pumping J&J. Another good opportunity to squeeze some short sellers.

It's like Deja Vu: 

All the same players we saw in '08: Mohamed El-Erian, Dr. Doom (Noriel Roubini), Jim Cramer. I saw a still shot from a video of Jim Cramer receiving a text from "Steve Mnuchin", live on air. I'm not 100% it was authentic, but I don't doubt i. I believe he's been working behind the scenes since '08.

 The script is nearly identical: Remember when Cramer went on his rant against the Fed in '08? Linked

Fast Forward 13 Years Later: 

Jim Cramer Wants U.S. to Release 'Mad Money'... 'They Know Nothing' streetinsider.com

 Johnson & Johnson *$JNJ is one of Cramer's stocks to watch thestreet.com 

CNBC Transcript: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Speaks with CNBC’s Jim Cramer on “Squawk on the Street” Today

    

Looming Earnings Season Offers Next Test for Rebounding Stock Market WSJ 

Looking back at the entire rally:

Financials lead, as expected, with $FAS ending the week up 100% from where I called it out on March 23rd.

$FAS I like. Tech, #Biotech, $JETS, $SVXY, $RUT value - consumer goods! Energy

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 23, 2020

The best chart view for financials remains in the Public Charts area. This was one of the most straight forward, and profitable trades, since I called the bottom in March. $JETS is another, and that one still has room to run, ahead of the airline bailouts.

Looking back at last week:

 Once again we saw weekly OPEX rigged, when they purposefully drove financials above res - above my pink line. They raised the bid, above res. in pre-market, on a Friday, on light volume. Yesterday, Monday, we saw a gap fill on this index. This morning it's back above support.

Short term I think the market can go higher, but may need to pull back ahead of another short squeeze Friday OPEX.  

Long term I'm skeptical that the economy can pull out of this deflationary death spiral, regardless of how many trillions, "The Powers That Be", throw at it. Of course the market can price in a recovery, but that doesn't fix main street. 

Coronavirus has turned out to be NOT as deadly as the so called experts predicted, but as long as the lock-down continues, there can't be an economic recovery. There's a lot of talk about opening the country up, but they want to do mass testing. 

Keeping the country locked down also suits several political agendas: 

1. Hurt's Trump, and Boris Johnson, and the nationalist movement. 

2. Forced vaccinations, and a national ID system. 

3. Socialized Healthcare

4. Green New Deal

5. Lower Emissions 

6. Depopulation  

7. New World Order 

What you really need to watch over the next few days/ weeks, if the $VIX

$VIX ALERT 

$VIX found support above the 42.50 level on Monday. That will hold until this pullback is complete. That level could break this morning.   

Once the $VIX gaps up above the 47.50 level, you'll see a bigger pullback. 

Urgent: Join me for my next LIVE FACE INTERVIEW Monday 4/6/2020 @ 8:00 AM EST

LIVE FACE INTERVIEW Monday @ 8:00 AM EST with your host Dale Pinkert  @ForexStopHunter

Sign Up Here: @ Forex Analytix FREE Daily Webinar

I'll be giving my insight on the Global Pandemic, and what differentiates this crash from any other in history.

I'll also be reviewing:

1. How I called the top back in January, and exactly where I predicted that the bottom would fall out... 

Market Update 1/15/2020 - Dow 29,000, Overshoots, & Advanced Charting Techniques

From my twitter: 

Here's a warning: When the $VIX breaks above 16, you're going to see panic selling, "like the world has never seen before", as Trump would say. I'm outta here

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) January 9, 2020

2. How I called the market bottom, just ahead of the most massive rally since 1933

From my twitter feed:

2 days ago: https://t.co/KJ1wmfcdv9

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 26, 2020

3. How I called the bottom on Oil, just ahead of the most massive rally in oil in history, for an astonishing 85% gain in 2X leveraged oil bull $UCO.

From my twitter feed:

Expect a violent reversal in $WTI crude - Short squeeze begins @ $22 pic.twitter.com/2XntgxiGA0

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 30, 2020

Took a massive gain in 2X #Oil $UCO - up 85% in a 3 days #ChaChing!

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) April 3, 2020

What comes next? Tune in Monday morning and find out ...

These are historic times, don't miss it! 
AA