Wednesday, August 31, 2022

Market Update 8/31/22 - The Easiest Trade In The World

 The Easiest Trade In The World 

No, not yesterday's energy short... but the next trade, I already have lined up, and ready to go. 

Update Yesterday - we saw more weakness in Europe, and that spilled over into US markets. 

As it turns out, it's the ECB, that global markets are worried about, but at some point all the bad news is priced in, and this morning we see Futures green, on more bad new out of Europe. 

This is how we know we're not really in a bear market. A market that ignores bad news is a bull market. 

 We saw a little shakeout below the 50 day moving average on the $SPX, but the $VIX looks like it's poised to sell off.  

Looks like the easiest trade in the world

1. Keep your eye on the $VIX 

2. Buy the breakout - back above the 50 day moving average - on the $SPX 

Maybe the market takes another day to build a base? Maybe we see several more days of weakness, and that's kind of hard to predict on such light volume.

 Keep your eye on other 50 day moving average targets, such as financials, because every sector needs to build a base, before we're off to the races again.  

Speaking of Financials 

 $XLF - Looks like a normal bullish correction. I've a;ready labeled this move wave"A", so I'd start buying the dips, and then look to start selling the rips, maybe around the next OPEX. Wave B's aren't easy to predict, but it may even retest the recent highs. Wave C will looks like a sharp correction, and then we should see the market rally into the midterms, as I've suspected all along. Rigged markets to help Joe Biden, and the rest of the corrupt deep state. 


I'm sure you've seen all the money managers who are all over the cable news talking about how great financials are! Of course nothing could be further from the truth, but it should be a good trade anyhow. $FAS in play 

Just before we saw the market roll over, I was worried that the selling might accelerate, but I think those worries can be put to rest. This little pullback isn't a wave 3, or the market would certainly be crashing. Well, it's not crashing, and that rules out a wave 3.  

Tuesday, August 30, 2022

Market Update 8/30/22 CNBC Fast Money Traders Like Energy

I didn't anticipate Oil would rally higher, but yesterday it was up another 4%, and energy even made a new recent high, and this on a down day, when most analysts are supposedly afraid of a Fed caused recession? So, why is energy really up? Because as I pointed out weeks ago, it's a continued sector rotation, in a continuously rigged market. 


I lost power, after some storms rolled through Chicago, yesterday, so first thing I wanted to do this morning, is to draw up a new Oil chart, and see what's going on with Oil from a technical perspective.   

Oil's Monday Morning surprise looks like this on the chart 

$WTIC - 1. Back-tests the 50 day moving average, for the first time, in over 2 months. 2. Trades to the top of a bearish parallel channel. 

 


I'm really surprised that anyone would be bullish energy, as Oil continues to make lower lows, followed by lower highs, ever since Oil topped out in March of last year, yet it remains a very popular trade, why?

CNBC Fast Money Traders Like Energy 

Second thing I did this morning was to try to track down some of the energy names, Fast Money was pumping yesterday. I only caught part of the show, but I missed most of it.  

When I searched the internet for more information, what I found is what you now have to pay for something called "CNBC Pro", to get more information. 

Of course, whatever is popular is going to get pumped on CNBC's Fast Money, and that's going to draw in more paying members.  

Here's something I found from back in June 

View the first few minutes of  the embedded video, and you'll quickly realize that this so called, "technician", doesn't know the difference between a base, and a breakout pattern. He's seen pointing to a base on a 10 year chart, that doesn't even exist. It's absurd 

I could be wrong, bit I have to believe that this guy is sent out to sell a story, but doesn't actually have any technical expertise. Point to a valid chart pattern! 

$XLE - Energy Select Spider (ETF) Remains very overbought near the top of an upturned channel. 

I've applied the most bullish EW count, I could come up with, to the chart below, and that looks like a Primary wave IV, and that's a difficult thing to predict. If correct, the Pattern could take months to even reveal itself. Of course energy could still go a little higher, but I'd be looking for it to give back all the gains of the past 2 months, shortly. I've already identified this as a minor wave b, head-fake rally, on several other energy charts. To make it simple, We saw a crash in energy, and now we're seeing consolidation.  



I think CNBC traders don't have a clue, where Energy is going, except when they drive Oil back to the 50 day moving average, on a Monday morning, and they seem to me more interested in selling memberships, to the dumbest retail investors on the planet, rather than provide any useful information. 

Last week, it was the idea that Warren Buffett could buy $OXY, that was used to drive Energy higher. I'll bet, that story was manufactured in order to drive the energy market higher, on light summer volume.    

Warren Buffett Can Buy 50% Of OXY Stock, But Is It A Buy Or A Sell Right Now? www.investors.com

As far as the broader market is concerned, I'm not sure we're seeing a tradeable rally, and in the short term, I'd like to see the $SPX (and SPY) test the 50 day moving average.

 


Take Care, AA 


Monday, August 29, 2022

Market Update 2/28/22 - Taking Another Look Back At The Ridiculous Action Of The Past Few Weeks, and The Weeks Ahead


Taking Another Look Back At The Ridiculous Action Of The Past Few Weeks

Going all the way back to the beginning of this rally, we didn't see a bullish reversal until right after June Options Expiration, which us typical, since every OPEX is rigged, by the big banks, and their hedge funds.  Here I am anticipating the reversal in my June 16th , and June 17th Updates, as well as in my most recent youtube update  

Fast Forward to early August: Market overshoots, and becomes extremely overbought, as the $SPX backtests the 200 day moving average, but then it continues to hold up into - you got it! - August Options Expiration. We did see $SOX, and a few other minor sectors begin to pull back, and that was a tell, but most sectors continued to hold up.... and when I say "minor sectors", I'm talking about miners, biotech, home builders, crypto, and whatever else is quietly flying under the radar.  

Fast forward to the last full trading week of trading in August:
 Global markets are finally taken down, Sun. night / Monday morning around 3AM 


 Of course, Jackson Hole Friday, we saw the rug pulled again, starting in Germany, as I recently laid out in Market Update 8/27/22 Weekly Wrap-up And a Look Ahead



It seems like the market can only pull back, when short sellers least expect it, or in other words, on a Friday, or a Monday. How many Monday morning surprises have we seen, this year alone, and we're to believe the lame stream media doesn't notice this trading pattern?   

When the market can only be taken down at 3AM on a Sunday night, or on a Friday, with the help of Chairman Powell, and the lying corporate owned lame stream media, what are we to think, and how are retail investors supposed to process markets? The short answer is, they aren't...  

I think it's very convenient for the hedge funds to drive stocks into overbought territory, and buy cheap Put protection, as they continue to short the $VIX (for 2 weeks) ahead of the next OPEX, only to dump their holdings at the most opportune time. The trick is thinking like these crooked hedge funds think, and pinning down these critical dates, but this pullback seemed more difficult to time than most....   


 Here's what made this time a little different. Last Monday they allowed the $VIX to breakout, and the sold Germany, but what I think they didn't anticipate was that the $VIX would be sold at the 200 day moving average, and that Buy orders had been placed underneath the $DAX, as the 50 day.... and this is what kept the market from selling off in a panic.

Fast forward to today, Monday, 8/29, the last Monday of the month. We're seeing some further weakness, as I anticipated in the previous update, and where is the market trading? Right at a couple obvious psychological targets. $SPX 4000, and DOW 32,000. Think this is coincidence? 


$SPX - continues to trade above 4000. 

Hopefully this helps give you some insight in to how markets work, and how they're constantly rigged in the houses favor, and this as CNBC and the rest of the lame stream media continues to report bearish fantasies. 

Here's what I'm seeing in the week (s) ahead 


1. I believe we're seeing a little re-balancing act, just ahead of the final month of the quarter. 

2. Money Managers will be forced to continue to chase Tech stocks, and money has to be put to work, as soon as today, since Monday is the Labor Day holiday. Think, massive short squeeze, on bearish news. Yes, bearish news is a bullish contrarian indicator. 

Seems to me, the smart hedge funds will want to get a leg up on the rest of the market, putting money to work right now; even though it's technically not the end of the month, most brokerage houses have already closed their books... and the hedge funds have collected on their bearish weekly Options bets, and are sitting on a lot of cash.  Believe me, nobody is planning to put more shorts on, ahead of a long holiday, going into the end of 3rd quarter window dressing. 

3. Likely sector rotation, out of commodities, and energy, and back into beaten down equities. This again, will provide the hedge funds with a mountain of cash, ahead of yet another short squeezer holiday trading session.    


Of course we could see more selling, once the market fills the gap that was left behind, last week, or even on a retest of the highs of the previous week, once normal trading resumes around mid Sept, I be ready to get bearish again, but I suspect the next Options Expiration date is going to be rigged bullish again. 

NatGas - Natural Gas traded exactly where I predicted is would, on Friday, and looks like it could be in for a nasty correction, now that contract expiration has passed. Watch this bearish Head and Shoulders pattern, and review the past few updates, for more targets. 





Take Care, and good luck, AA 
 
 





Saturday, August 27, 2022

Market Update 8/27/22 Weekly Wrap-up And a Look Ahead

 In hindsight it looks like the Fed gave the market makers what it wanted on Friday, which was used as a good excuse to retest Monday's lows, and collect on their bearish (weekly) Options bets.

I probably should have seen this coming, since fast money traders, and the lame stream media were all calling for the same thing. 

What I found interesting is that Powell spoke first thing in the morning, and so Germany was the first to go, and once the $DAX broke below the 50 day moving average, it was all over.   

By the end of the day, they had taken the Dow down, and even 1000 points, so you know that was coordinated. It makes good headlines.  

They managed to drive the $VIX above Monday's high, and that's pretty impressive.  

At least I wasn't long, and I never told anyone to buy Thursday's rally, so I don't feel like I missed anything. I wouldn't have wanted to get locked into 3 day short trade (with cash) going into this weekend anyhow.    

Friday, August 26, 2022

Market Update 8/26/22 - Weekly Wrap-up ahead of Jackson Hole

 Yesterday's rally, led by a little short squeeze coming out of China. This is typical of bear markets; whenever the central bank proposes more stimulus, you'll see retail short sellers run for cover. Seems like we saw this every few weeks, in 07-08

This is a good excuse to update China 

$PGJ China Golden Dragon - jacked (rigged) above the 50 day ma., in order to trigger buy programs. 

 

Barron's reports 

Alibaba, JD.com, and Other Asian Stocks Jump. This Time, Thank China’s Government.

Look at the previous 6 short squeezes on the above chart, and you decide if you think you want to hang your hat on this one! 

Of course I'll be looking to get short, China, and the rest of World

Speaking of the rest of World: Does anyone believe that the US will not fall into the next Great Depression, when every other market collapses? I think the only bright spot in that scenario, might be that the US banks could avoid going belly-up, if they're shorting every other market. 

Jackson Hole  

The lame stream media would have us believe that Chairman Powell is going to say something more dire than he did, a month ago, and if there was ever a good example of worthless news hype, this is it! 

CNBC is claiming Powell will not give markets what they want. That would be a real pivot...!

To refresh your memory: Back in June Powell said "the fed could raise the bank's borrowing rate by .75 point, and in July, they did exactly that. Today, we are to believe that the Fed is going to come out hawkish, and talk about 1%, or higher, rate hikes in the future?  

The fed minutes made it clear that the fed plans to continue to hike rates, until "inflation eases, substantially". 

In reality: The Fed will do whatever they have to do to defend the holy dollar, and not upset the market, ahead of the Nov. elections. 

Doesn't look to me, like the market is pricing in inflation, as the $USD continues to scream to the upside, against the $YEN, and Gold plummets. 

What inflation? 

Here's my deflationary prediction for the dollar (see the grey dotted line), back in 2018, and here's the $USD breaking out to new multi-year highs. 


A strong dollar is deflationary, not inflationary. 

Folks will argue that gasoline futures are high, or Natural Gas, and then point to diesel... but the fed doesn't control energy prices, or even factor it in. It's just amazing to see so much information, now-a-days. 

$GASO Gasoline prices crash. Lame stream media continues to report high gas prices 


What about Silver? 

Silver breaks long term support, as you would expect during a deflationary spiral 


So, what to make of all this? 

1. It's possible that the Fed wants to cause a Great Depression, by making is more expensive for banks to borrow money. Why, because they can unwind their balance sheet, while the board members, and their friends and family, and fed member banks, short the market at the same time. Not to mention insider trading in congress.... 

In case you missed the story, the fed only recently claims they are no longer trading 

Federal Reserve Tightens Rules on Trading by Officials investopedia 

2. It's possible they (the fed) have no clue as to what's really going on. This was exactly the case back in 07-08. 

Either way, I'm not sitting on the edge of my seat, like most investors, every time the fed speaks. 

The Trade: 

I think if the $SPX can rally back above the 4200 level, then it can certainly even retest the recent highs, or at least fill the gap, that was left behind on Monday. 

I basically already said as much on Twitter, on Wed. 


Just like the Gap fill we're seeing in shares of NVIDEA 


This is the last weekend of the summer, so why not squeeze the short sellers at least one more time? 

 And next week is a truncated week, and a window dressing month, and if you know what that means, then you know what to expect. 

Natural Gas: 

See the past 2 market updates, for a closer look at the energy trade. 

There's no doubt in my mind, that the crooked banks are planning to take energy down, in order to help the leftists, in power, but the election is still a couple months away. 

Reviewing a forecast I found on FXEmpire and Tweeted out yesterday: 


The author of that piece it smart, in that he doesn't attempt to know what is about to happen in NatGas, rather he lines up the support levels, and possible targets. 

As I explained in my tweet yesterday, he claims he doesn't know what the next target would be on a breakout? The obvious target on a breakout, is the top of that same pattern, or a throw-over, over the top of that megaphone pattern. I've pointed to that pattern in previous updates, so you can chart that target for yourself... 

The only other target I see on Natural Gas is the top of a channel, @ 11.25. 

$NATGAS DCS chart 

 


But what if.... and it's the "what if's", which will come back to bit you in the ass... 

What IF it's a wave "b" as I've been pointing to all week. Go back and study the recent updates, and if you haven't already done so, familiarize yourself with Elliott Wave Theory, and pattern trading! 

 I think it's becoming pretty obvious that every time the market crashes, the so called smart money is going to continue to hide in Energy, but that trade seems overdone in the short term. 

Still, I'm anticipating a breakout, and short capitulation, ahead of the crash 

$UNG (nat gas fund) - looking for a breakout... 2. That breakout point will become st support. 3. Resistance around the 34 level, is going to look like a head and shoulders pattern. 


Then we'll see where we are next week. 

Remember Natural Gas contracts expire today! 

Take Care, and have a great weekend! 

AA  



 





Thursday, August 25, 2022

Natural Gas/ Energy Market Update 8/25/22

 I had a few technical difficulties this morning, but wanted to update the only market that seems to matter, and that's Energy.  

Also see yesterdays update: 

Market Update 8/24/22 - Taking a Second Look at The Head-fake Rally in Energy

Short term support on NatGas looks like:


There's always the possibility that #NatGas is jacked above the $10 level, and Bloomberg is already reporting it, as if it's already happened 

I think it's just as likely that we see the #NatGas bulls who are no doubt rooting for $10, to be left holding the bag, and as I've already mentioned, the risk is to the downside. Needless to say this is a dangerous trade

$NatGas  - The weekly chart shows NatGas wasn't able to hold the previous high, of 9.66, so I think that's the number to watch.  


Dangerous trade to say the least, and especially if you're long European Natural Gas 

US Natural Gas Price Volatility in Q1 Reached Highest Level in 20 Years, EIA Reports tradingview

Looks like Energy could continues to hold up into next week, but we shall see....

The Stock to watch is Exxon Mobil 


Oil and gas drillers may even be trading in a wave 2, suckers rally, so putting a crash alert on this. 



That's a live view. The market is already open. Gotta run! 

Catch you on Twitter 

AA



Wednesday, August 24, 2022

Market Update 8/24/22 - Taking a Second Look at The Head-fake Rally in Energy

 Yesterday's trade was quite boring, which is exactly what you would expect during the Summer, but we did see Energy up another 4%. Yes, 4%, but judging by the 0 likes on the tweet below, traders are apparently more focused on $AMC, and $APE?! 

 Investor Intelligence hits new recent lows 

I told the trading apes to take profits in $AMC last week, but these idiots never listen. 

Speaking of idiots, and to help you understand the Energy chart, I'm about to reveal...  

Taking a Second Look at The Head-fake Rally in Energy  

Remember how Energy stocks held up for nearly 4 months, before crashing back to earth, back in the early spring? You should... because I remained bearish energy during that whole time period, even as Energy retested the highs. 

Firstly: What is a running wave B? 

Before I reveal the energy chart, I want you to think back to just before the covid crash, where the market was obviously trading in a head-fake wave "B", before crashing into wave C.  

 $XLC - using this random chart as an example of the running wave B we saw back just before the wave C (covid) correction/panic. It's called a running wave b, because wave b runs past the beginning of wave a. See the annotations. 


I can show the same thing using one of the major indexes, without giving away any future targets.  

$INDU - another example of that running wave B (head-fake rally), we saw in early 2020. 2. Again, that running wave B isn't support; regardless of where this index was bought, a few weeks ago.  



 Yes, I saw this head-fake wave B, back in early 2020, before anyone have even heard of covid, and even though I was uncertain of what was coming, I was already hoarding toilet paper, because when the STHF you can never have too much toilet paper! I knew something bad was coming, but as it turned out, it was not nearly as bad, as was being reported... and only now, 2 years later, are folks finally waking up to the fact that Covid as it turns out, was nothing more than a genetically engineered Psyop. 

Getting back to the top in Energy, and the crash, and the pattern - previously - unrecognizable 

The head-fake rally of 20-19 -2020, was an excruciating thing to watch, especially when the idiots at CNBC were celebrating "all time highs", and counting daily winning streaks, instead of reporting the truth, about the real state of the global economy. This is about as dumb as it gets, but this is what the cable networks were pushing.  They even reported that transports had broken out to new highs, a total lie, on a leading indicator. Google search: "Dow Theory Transports"; if you're unfamiliar... 

$TRAN - early 2020 - $TRAN as it turns out, was obviously NOT leading markets higher, but that didn't stop CNBC from lying about it. 

I recognized this all the way back in the spring of 2019! 

Much more to be learned from the above chart

 2. It's also a good example of a broken channel, followed by a repaired channel, which I touched on yesterday, if memory serves.  

3. It's a great example of the pump 'n' dump market rally we saw last year. Fools rushed in, and fools rush out. 

4. See where this index was sold, last week - at the 200 week moving average. 

5. I already mentioned that the 2019 high isn't a support level, but it bears repeating! 

Anybody who is familiar with Elliott Wave Theory should immediately recognize how ridiculous the 2020 rally to nowhere was, but I digress 

A Look back at the top in Oil and Gas drillers, and the June crash 

 $OIH - revised EW count shows a rare reverse symmetrical triangle pattern. A- B (head-fake), C, D (headfake), E (crash). This pattern is so rare, that you won't find much written about it in the EW literature.  


When Energy topped out in June, I figured it was trading into a topping pattern - a broadening top - but as it turns out, it was far more bearish, and now you see energy trading into another wave b. A tiny running wave b, of B. 

Knowing this market as I do, energy will probably continue to hold up for another few days, mainly because the sellers are still on vacation, but I think we can expect a little mini-crash in a powerful wave c, as soon as Friday. From there it looks like energy will continue to trade in a range, before the next big crash, which may not come until 2023. 

As far as the broader market 

It seems a little early to be getting bullish, after Monday's surprise, but already, yesterday morning, I saw Jim Cramer pumping the Nancy Pelosi trade (semiconductors).  

It does seem like a wave 3 crash is ruled out, but I think we won't know for sure for a few more days.

Don't ignore a rigged $VIX breakout, like the one we saw on Monday. That should have come on OPEX Friday, when Crypto was seen crashing, but the market makers didn't want that. Now, I'm supposed to get bullish again? I'll sit on my hands, rather than chase more low volume, stupidity. 

I see all kinds of trades in other markets, but nothing I'd be willing to hang my hat on   

As far as Jackson Hole, I think the fed blinks, knowing that inflation has cooled, no thanks to them. 

All the fed has done for the past year is use every excuse in the book, not to raise rates, so calling for them to go full metal Paul Volker, is beyond dumb. The fed only cares about defending the $USD, in a time of war, and preventing Donald Trump from being right about a coming great depression. 

It's deflation they fear, not inflation. 

Donald Trump Warns U.S. Economy Could Reach Levels of Great Depression newsweek.com

Expect the Fed to come out of Jackson Hole Dovish, and to taper the taper, in Sept, cutting the lending rate by only a half point (if that), and that only in order to save face. 

Jackson Hole and The Ghost of Paul Volcker investingdaily.com

This market is not the market of the 1970's, and if they were to raise interest rates like they did back then, they know damn well what would happen. 

Take Care, AA 

      



ddd

Tuesday, August 23, 2022

Surveying the damage after yesterdays sell-off, and taking a closer look at Natural Gas

 As you probably know, I've been bearish ever since the market overshot a couple weeks ago, and I encouraged folks to start aggressively shorting this market.  

See: Market Update 8/16/22 - Trading Into The Danger Zone

$INDU - the updated DOW chart shows a possible completion of wave "D" 

 



As you can see, the Dow took out the 200 day, moving average, and held that level for a couple days, just as it did in March, April, and even Feb. (above the 50 day...) 

Of course, the market wasn't actually taken down until after August Options Expiration, which resulted in yet another, "Monday morning surprise". This is the same thing we saw when the market crashed on delayed covid news, just after OPEX. 

I'm still getting caught up on charting, and whenever we see a coordinated move like yesterday's... there are always things that soon become quite obvious, and by yesterday evening there were already several things started line up, a few of which I tweeted out, yesterday, and many more things I didn't, and won't...  because I don't want to give away too many secrets. 

Here's what I can tell you about yesterday's sell-off 

1. This Sell-off started in Germany, and this isn't the first time we've seen this. This is where US futures manipulation usually begins. There's a lot more I could say about this trade, but I don't want to give away my trade secrets. 

2. Of course the $VIX broke out, but do you know where it was sold, yesterday?  

If you missed that obvious target, shame on you! 

3. $SQQQ  was jacked  - meaning the the bid was raised (precisely) above the 20 day moving average. DOW internet bear $WEBS confirms this.... as it was jacked precisely above the 200 day ma. 

What does this mean? What this proves is that the manipulators (the bank's hedge funds) use leveraged funds, and the $VIX, and the $DAX to totally manipulate US markets, as I've been saying all along. 

This is probably the whole reason for the creation of these leveraged instruments, in the first place!  

4. What this also proves, is that the market is engineered by the same people who control the lame stream media, and it moves according to their schedule, not yours! This helps explain why 99% of whatever is being reported, is nothing more than a distraction. 

5. It also proves, that the folks who still believe the market moves according to Elliott Wave Theory, or according to a painstakingly drawn parallel channel, are as clueless as I was, when I started predicting markets over 15 years ago! 

Does this mean I'm going delete 100's of charts that apparently no longer work, like they used to? No.

Channels still hold the key to one thing, and that's to have the ability to determine the direction. Sure, channels break all the time, but channels are also repaired, and when you see that happen, you know there are 1000 hedge funds who also see it, and put money to work accordingly, just like we saw, when the charts were repaired back in 2020, and this is especially true when moving average (buy signals are triggered). 

Also, patterns still work to some extent, and it often comes down to correctly identifying a pattern. 

As many views that I see on twitter, not one trader correctly identified the pattern, you see on the Dow chart above - a down-turned megaphone or expanding triangle pattern.  

My short term forecast - from yesterday - doesn't change.  

All eyes are on Jackson Hole this Friday, and inflation isn't even an issue. 

Don't be surprised if we see the retail short-sellers squeezed, when the Fed comes out dovish 

One more thing 

Investors continue to hide out in Utilities, and Natural Gas prices remain elevated, in order to prop that safety trade up, but that trade is already way overcrowded, and I believe we're looking at a double dip. 

Utilities - the engineered safety trade complete with predictions of a, "super cycle in commodities".  



Sadly there's only a leveraged 3X bull Utility ETF, and I don't recommend shorting these funds. 

There is an 2X bear, the $SDP, but I would just be a observer after the big move we saw yesterday. 

Also, we don't know how the 2X Utilities ETF is going to perform. 

Natural Gas

Another place retail investors are hiding is in Natural Gas, and the lame stream media continues to push stories about maintenance. Yes, routine maintenance! 

 

European gas prices surge as Russian pipeline maintenance fuels fears of a total shutdown CNBC

 As far as the Natural Gas chart

Trend remains higher, but in the short term I think we could see a back-test of the lower end of the rising megaphone pattern   



There's even the possibility that the top is already in, since megaphone patterns don't even have to complete. In that case we could easily see Natural gas cut in half, before winter sets in.  

This is currently my favorite trade, because of how crowded it is, and the news saturation, and because we've already seen other commodities crash, and with the election in only 3 months, the deep state needs to bring the cost of heating your home, way down! Of course this will also help put the Fed on hold, because the only thing causing inflation is the continued speculation in energy, and commodities.  

However, anything can happen, including an immediate retest of the top of the pattern, which I can't get an accurate handle on, until it happens. Looks like maybe as high as $12?  

I think Natural Gas needs to consolidate, before making a final push, in 2023, but we shall see.... 

Good Luck, AA 






Monday, August 22, 2022

Market Update 8/22/22 - Surprise Market Sell-off on August Options Expiration Continues Into Monday

 I'm not sure what to make of Friday's sell-off, but it looks like fear in Europe again, and this time over Italy, which the corporate owned fake financials news didn't report until late Friday, and now they've already buried the story. Instead reporting that the market is worried about this weeks Jackson Hole meeting? 


I recently placed Italy on Death Watch, although this has been the case since the covid bailouts 

 


ECB faces Italian debt test as politics intervenes Reuters 


This might also help explain why the Euro is retesting new lows. What happens to the EU, if Italy causes a debt default cascade, that spreads to Germany and beyond?  

Also in focus is European inflation, which is off the hook, thanks to super-high Natural Gas prices. 

As far as the charts, and the market action, it remains quite dull (slow), but trading is expected to pick up in a few more weeks, after Labor Day. 

The selling continues to be very orderly, while the $VIX remains trapped below the 21 level, and ended the day only up 5.32%. 

If you've been following along, you should already know where the $VIX break out point lies.
If you missed it, you can track down that level in my July 20, update, but I wouldn't expect that again, until after we get back to normal trading, after Labor Day. 

$SPX SPY looks like it may pause around the 415 level, but the market remains way over-bought, as I've been saying for over a week. 

SPY 60 min chart


We're finally seeing metals pull back, and I took profits in my miner short, on Friday, but it seems to take a week, for a market to top out, and it was a long wait, to collect 10% profits in $JDST

  

One of the only bright spots in this lousy market has been Energy, so of course we see investors pile into that already crowded trade, as the hedge funds manipulate it higher. 

$IYE Energy  - see where the opening bid on Energy was jacked above resistance at Thursdays open. 





The funny thing is, Oil continues to trade near the recent lows. Energy trades to new recent highs, Oil at recent lows. This sets up for a re-balancing, and I think Oil wants to go higher, even though Oil is no doubt being sold, in order to try to bring inflation down, and we saw this coming a mile away. Most the inflation in the economy has been due to higher commodities prices. This explains why the only inflation you're seeing now, is on Fox News 

$DBC Commodities with Oil - Consolidating, as the banksters continue to hold Oil down.

 




The way the market is acting, I can't really make a short term prediction, but risk remains to the downside, until the Jackson Hole speech, at least. 

Take Care, AA 

Tuesday, August 16, 2022

Market Update 8/16/22 - Trading Into The Danger Zone

Yesterday, we saw the 200 day moving average - on the DOW tested, but like I told you last week, the market is getting extremely overbought, and these bear market rallies, typically only last a few weeks. 

This is why I told traders to sell yesterday's even number target:

 And I'd add to shorts if we see the 4400 target taken out, as I pointed out in yesterday's update  

$INDU - trades to overbought - above my red line - as it's driven to the 200 day ma in a panic. This is panic buying, because not only do you have retail short sellers capitulating, but you have the market engineers rushing the target, and taking advantage of a mutual fund Monday, and that's a good opportunity for the pros to help drive the market to their moving average targets, and take profits.      


Here's another view of the same thing



Checking the Wave Count

Now, I was under the impression, that this is a wave D rally, which is typically more complicated than this - as you can see my sub-wave labelled "(W)" of wave D, and I anticipated that it would take several months to complete, but this move actually counts more like a wave (2), suckers rally.   

To help explain, I'll illustrate the same pattern on the Wilshire 5000 $WLSH chart. 

 Wilshire 5000 $WLSH - trades into the same pattern I predicted back in June - a down-turned expanding triangle, or as most traders would call it, "a down-turned megaphone". 



And after being correct on a difficult call like that, I'm going to continue to mention it, every chance I get, but even though it looks like I was right all along, it's important to try to confirm the pattern, on several different charts, track the $VIX, look for alternative patterns, and keep an eye on the calendar. 

The longer I do this the more I realize, watching the corporate owned news agencies is not so important, unless it's in order to use them as a contrarian indicator. or instance: The lame stream media continues to talk about a "soft landing", just as they did in 2007, just before the market crashed. That's a contrarian indicator. 

Using the MSM as a contrarian indicator 

Yesterday: The lame stream media was reporting yesterday, that China did a surprise rate cut, and the idiots at Bloomberg were left asking, "why isn't the market pricing in risk"?

1. China has been in a bear market since 2020, and even as global equities continue to rally, China continues to sell off. 

2. News is priced in months/ years, ahead of time. Don't believe me? When was gold breaking out, and making new all time highs? Back when the inflation story was being priced in, back in 2019-2020. As I've always said, covid was only an excuse for more bailout world policy. They knew they were going to have to do massive cash injections back in 2019, when the broader market traded into a headfake wave B. The only reason they continue to push vaccines is because this keeps populations confused. 

Google search vaccine/ vaccinate, and you'll get plenty of results, that don't even mention "flu season".   

3. Yesterday I heard @TheChartress (Abigail Doolittle)  on Bloomberg talking down oil yesterday. I assume this is to try to help with that, "soft landing" story, and commodities have been crushed.... but believe me, she knows nothing about timing oil markets. She's gets placed in the same contrarian indicator camp, as that nitwit Jim Cramer. As far as I have been able to ascertain, neither one of these loons has any technical skill, and this is why you'll see Bloomberg, and CNBC, will occasionally have real traders on.  

Adding these 2 idiots to the Wall of Shame




 Getting back to the Wave Count 

What if this is wave 2, after all? 

In the case of the above "what'-if"'; if it is wave 3, then it will look like 3000 point drops on the dow, all over again, and it will only get worse from there. If, instead we only see a mild pullback to higher lows, that's going to rule out a wave 3 crash. It's going to be another easy call. 

 What's the catalyst for a wave 3 crash? 

There are so many bad things happening right now, that it would take hours to blog on it, but you can feel it in the air, as Tucker was reporting, just last night. 

He also reported a nightmarish situation that's unfolding right now, and that is that children are being encouraged to switch genders, with the help of illegal black market pharmaceutical drugs.

This isn't conjecture. I see it happening, on the streets of Chicago, and it has grave consequences for society, and humanity. This situation also explains why young people are not competing for available jobs. 



Scary times are coming, 
take care, 
AA 

 


Monday, August 15, 2022

Market Update 8/15/22 - Weekly/ Quarterly Wrap-up, and a Look Ahead - This Is Brilliant!

To wrap up last week: Friday, we saw the controllers drive the $VIX back below 20, in order to rig, yet another weekly Options Expiration, and in hindsight, what's really brilliant about this sub 20 $VIX target, is that they are now able to engineer a pullback by simply driving the $VIX back above that magic 20 number, just as we saw them do on Thursday.  

This Week: 

The market should continue to hold up into August Options Expiration, this Friday, and the obvious target on the $SPX is the 200 day moving average.

$INDU - looking at the Dow getting ready to test my wave D target as predicted weeks ago. 


$SPX target tweeted after Friday's close: 



$SPX - weekly view - we could even see the 50 week moving average back-tested around the 4350 level, or even 4400, depending on how long it takes to top out.


 


Sept is a window dressing month, so money managers are going to be forced to chase performance. JP Morgan is already telling investors, "this rally has legs", so the fix is in!   

JPMorgan Says the Stock Rally Has Legs bloomberg


Thursday, August 11, 2022

Market Update August 8th, 2022 - Part 2 - Longer Term View + and update on $SOX

Continued from Part 1 of this extensive update 


Picking up where I left off about trying to time market tops...

Here's a bearish reversal I recently got right, as the $SOX trade, predictably began to unwind, no sooner than Nancy Pelosi touched down on US soil, after her little Asian semiconductor tour.  

8/3/2022 - mid-week - Update - The Real Reason for Pelosi's Asian Tour $SOX (Semiconductors) 


"Nancy Pelosi is one of the greatest market timers of our time, so good luck figuring that one out! (referring to timing the top on the semiconductor trade) Keep and eye on Nancy's itinerary..." 

Of course by the time this photo op - of Biden and Nancy congratulating eachother - on the signing of the, "Semiconductor Bill", hit news stands, $SOX was already getting crushed  

Image source Reuters article linked



As it turns out, Nancy's Husband is the trader in the family, as...  

Pelosi's Husband sells off up to $5 millions worth of chipmaker stock ahead of semiconductor bill vote the hill



Now comes the blow-back


Does anyone believe that China can't take Taiwan, and cut off our chip sector, like an EMP weapon would.... and put us back in the dark ages?  These corrupt politicians, are playing with fire! 


With Pelosi Gone, China Circles Taiwan with Missiles (voa china news) 


The top on Semiconductors was swift, and that should send up red flags, considering that most tops take a lot of time to develop. Don't know if I'll have time to explain this, as the opening bell is about to ring in 15 minutes.  

Getting back to the broader market 

Here's one way the market can continue to hold up into August OPEX (options expiration) 



Of course the bears who follow me, don't like this chart, so there's a very good chance it's correct, and even if we do see a reversal like the one we saw in Semiconductors, it will most likely snap right back in a suckers rally, ending next week, above the 4000 level. The house always wins, and to think any differently is to set yourself up for leveraged loses in the Options Market.



Done! AA 







AA 

Market Update August 8th, 2022 - Part 1 - Short Term VIEW - Looking kind of Toppy - was that Capitulation?

 Part 1 - Short Term VIEW - Looking kind of Toppy - was that Capitulation? 

The market is looking awfully toppy here, and I think any retail investors who were short going into yesterday mornings CPI number, probably capitulatedInflation less bad than expected. This was all that was needed to squeeze some retail short sellers.

Of course I saw this coming, and tweeted this out, moments before the CPI release  

Do you think the hedge funds didn't already know what the number was going to be, and haven't been pricing this in for the past several weeks? 

 Capitulation works both ways.  Bears give up at the top, and bulls give up at the bottom. 

I've been focused a lot on commodities, and currency trades, but the $VIX being taken down below 20, and at least a couple of the $VIX charts I've been watching, lines up perfectly with the $SPX 4200 (psychological target), and considering that we've seen mid-august swoons in the past, I'm a little afraid of what might come next. 

2. My sentiment indicators are flashing short term overbought signals, with bullishness being the highest we've seen since March!   

I keep these indicators close to my chest, because these are proprietary information, but I can tell you we have not seen bullish sentiment this high, since April!    

Can the market continue to hold up going into August OPEX, as I've been predicting? Of course that's possible, and I'll get into that more in Part 2, but I think we'll see - at least - a little pullback first.

If you don't think the market can hold up, just look at NatGas trading around 8-9 bucks for the past several months, or the market top in 2021 that took nearly a full year to materialize. 1 week until OPEX is a proverbial piece of sand in the hourglass, as far as trying to time market tops goes.  

This morning we see Disney - of all things - being the catalyst to help lift markets, and I was watching them pump this name bright and early! 

 What's amazing is that only moments later, I watched get punched right back down again. 

"The early bird gets the worm", and I'm often up at 3, or 4 AM, so if you're ever uncertain what is going on, you should click on my twitter profile, and review my earlier time line. 

20 hrs ago 


They say the market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent, and that's true, if you are wrong, and you continue to fight the trend, for a long enough period of time, but at some point you have to start calling tops, and that time is now! Or once the $VIX breaks back out above 20, because just as the machines were forced to buy the 50 day moving average on the majors, the AI will know what to do above the $VIX 20 level, and you can bet programmers were up all night loading the algorithms....

That wraps up the short term view, and this seems like a good place to break for part 2, which I'll link here, when completed 


AA