Monday, December 30, 2019

Stock Market Update 12/30/19 - Strongest Rally in 22 Years Debunked

This rally can continue a little higher, but there's nothing historic about it - judging by percentage gains - and most recently we've only seen markets up a few points higher, on very light volume, as the main stream media continues to report, "NEW ALL TIME HIGHS". This is all hype, as usual. There is no free market, only financial engineering, and fake news.

This could be the biggest financial hoax perpetrated on the uninformed retail investor, in 22 years, but it's certainly not what the main stream media is trying to make it out to be.

 

To easily debunk the above story one only has to take a look at look at a 12 yr $SPX chart. 
In 2009, the $SPX rallied 80% - from the 666 low, to over 1100 points. The 2009 rally was bigger, and historic.   


Looking at the NASDAQ we see the same thing

This rally off the Dec. 2018 low was simply a bounce out of the lower end of the range, with an assist by the Plunge Protection Team, and because it started at the beginning of the year, it's being reported that stocks are up 30% for the year, when in all actuality the market is only trading roughly 5% above the highs of 2018.
Furthermore this rally has been thinly traded, with $SOX, and tech leading, while many other sectors continue to flounder.
Short term:
Looking at a 1 year chart of the DOW we see the dow continue to to struggle above my stophunt, ever since it was driven above the 28200 level, on higher than normal volume.  Technically the Dow may have closed at 3 new
"ALL TIME HIGHS", over the Christmas/ Hanukkah holiday, and that sounds bullish, and this is why we're seeing the price action continue to be manipulated. It's a hoax, and it's about to come to an end, sooner rather than later.  

The market looks terrible here, but I think it can continue to hold up going into the end of the year, and even if the market were to pullback in the next day or 2, money managers are going to be forced to chase performance, going into 2020.
We need to see everyone fully invested, before the powers that be, pull the rug out in early 2020.
You can follow my charts in the public charts area at StockCharts.com. 
Have a Happy New Year! 
AA 

  














Friday, December 20, 2019

Market Update 12/20/2019 - The breakouts continue

RE: The fake impeachment of Donald J. Trump. As it turns out Pelosi isn't even going to bring the articles of impeachment to the Senate. There is no impeachment, only a fraud perpetrated in the peoples house (of representatives). A PsyOp designed to slander the POTUS, and pacify the radical base. I have to wonder how the radicals are going to react, once they realize they've been conned? At least, I think, the backlash won't come until Election night... if the election isn't cancelled before then.   

RE: The market

The trend remains up, and it looks like the bulls are going to win this OPEX

Looks like the DOW is going to breakout this morning, and if this continues, we could see Dow 29k by year end.

$DJIA - new Dow chart. See where it's been sold at the thin pink line, for the past several days. Watch for the next breakout there. I'll add this chart to the PC area this morning. The trend - seen in blue - is your friend, as long as the $VIX remains low. Looks like the DOW is going to breakout this morning, and if this continues, we could see Dow 29k by year end.




This morning I'm looking at some ETF's which have already broken out.
Apparently money rotates in an out of these funds, like $SPLV, which I recently pointed out... but I want to draw attention to 2 NYSE Arca ETFs, $IJR, and the $PSE. 

$IJR - small-caps Clear breakout. MACD reverses to the upside. RSI rising


You would think the $RUT would also be breaking out, but the holdings in the above fund are switched out regularly. I've listed the top 10 holding at the bottom of the chart, and I can give you 1 *example below. I think the above fund would be a good hedge, against a $RUT short, actually, or use the $RUT bear as protection, on an a long position in $IJR. 

*$MDCO - Medicines co

The other NYSE Arch ETF I'm been tracking for a lone time, is the $PSE (technology)

$PSE 20 year chart. Sitting above my upper blue channel line, or stophunt, depending on how you look at it. This could remain above that level, as profits are taken, over the next several months, until they decide to pull the trap door.

 
Saw a reversal in Oil overnight, at the $61, but that's probably not going to move much on this rigged OPEX.

$NDX - Seeing an upside target of 8675, followed downside gap fill target at 8480. 


That's about all I got today.
Have a great weekend,
AA




Thursday, December 19, 2019

Market Update 12/19/2019 - Smart Money vs Fast Money

I consider the Fast Money the dumb money, so Fast Money on CNBC might want to think about changing their name.

$INDU (DOW) - Money flow had been out since Thanksgiving, and this rally seems to be stalling out. 28,200 becomes the stophunt, after this weeks little breakout. Looks like a suckers rally, although I suppose stocks could hold up going into OPEX.


Speaking of CNBC: James Cramer claims the House Impeachment fiasco doesn't the matter to markets, and uses the impeachment of Bill Clinton as an example. That's not even in the same ball park, since there were actual crimes involved....

There's a risk more evidence comes out in the Senate Trial, and the RINOs' (Republicans In Name Only), who have never stood behind Trump, go ahead with removal.... but what think is more likely is that Trump is reelected and the radicals, riot, and "shut it down", and organize work strikes. Either way, there's a ton of risk here, but everything is on hold until 2020, the Senate Impeachment Trial, Brexit, China, USMCA, etc.

This morning we're seeing futures down slightly, as Europe - including Germany - is seen rolling over. We're also seeing the $USD spiking, on reports that Sweden is don't with their negative rates experiment.

$NSAQ - this is socialist countries in Europe buying into a fleeting tech rally. Think I'll add this chart to public charts area, so we know exactly where the panic starts - below the blue line.


Europe:
The 3X Europe ETF hit my target perfectly this week btw.


I've updated the Public Chart area, so be sure to check it out. I'm planning to add the above Dow chart this morning, and probably a short term Russell 2000 chart, after the Russell $VIX washed out to support, and the long term chart looks dreadful. I'm thinking risk off starts there, but everything looks toppy here, even FAANG stocks.

#FNGU is the 3X FAANG bull for example.

Oil and Oil Service Stocks: See the new WTI Oil chart in the Public Charts area. That chart 10x more reliable than the $USO, which is what more traders use. Res is $61, which is where it ended yesterday. If you're bullish that would be your breakout target, but I'm not bullish Oil.

$GUSH is looking very toppy. The 3X leveraged bear is $DRIP.


$SPX  Short term - I've already gone to a 30 min chart on the #1 chart located in the public charts area.

$SPX 1 min chart broke trend yesterday afternoon, so the speculators are lost.
The 10 min chart is still working, so I'll replace it to the #1 position. If it breaks, and the $VIX breaks out, we'll go to the 30 min chart. I have a 3018 target I tweeted out this morning, so...



One more thing: I mentioned the $SPLV last week, and I was wrong when I said it's full of big name.
After doing a little research, it turns out, that it's more of a defensive fund. It's mostly Utilities, and Financials, and REITs. It's not the critical indicator I thought it was, and it can certainly continue higher, in a downturn. 

I'm out of time
Good luck, and follow me on twitter for the latest, up to the minute, Analysis.
AA










   








 

Monday, December 16, 2019

Market Update 12/16/2019 More Red Flags

Last week we finally saw the $NYSE retest the highs of 2018, led by high flyers like Merck, which have become extremely overbought at this point. If you look at the percentage of stocks which have reached all time new highs, compared to stocks which have reached all time new lows, as evidenced by the $NYHL, this is the most extreme level we've seen since the end of 2017.

We also saw defensive stocks like Colgate up on Friday, that's another red flag. We saw the same thing in Australia, as they continue to deny their economy is collapsing.   See: Coalition cuts forecast surplus as budget update reveals economic slump theguardian.com/australia 

Short term: This morning we continue to see Money Managers continue to chase performance, and the short term charts continue to work.  

$SPX 1 min view - futures are pointing at 3189. 


$SPX 10 min view - trend remains up. Possible 3200 target before OPEX Friday.  

DOW - see the chart blogged on Friday. 1. We didn't see a breakout above the 18,222 level.... 
2. 28000 is psychological support, but I don't like the doji (reversal) candle it closed on.   


A lot of Elliott Wavers think this is a bullish breakout in wave 3, but it's just not powerful enough. I think wave 2 maybe? We'll have to see what the pullback looks like. 

$Oil - seeing oil up slightly. It's kind of risky selling oil on light holiday volume, but I think I'll add this $USO chart to the public charts area. The bulls stop is 12.25. Maybe is just holds up for another week or 3. 





$GOLD: $GLD continues to trend down. 


$HUI - The 2025 level looks like it's going to become the stop-hunt on the Gold Bugs index. 
There are a couple other miner charts in the public charts area. The trend looks like it remains up on the weekly $GDX, but the shorter term charts, continue to consolidate lower. 



I have a bunch of charts to add to the public charts area, and need to get it better organized, ahead of the holidays. You should have all the targets you need, including $VIX breakout targets, laid out in the past few blogs.  

If the $VIX isn't going to breakout, ahead of the holidays, then I don't see much reason to watch this market every day, and I may take some time off.... but we could see some profit taking, ahead of the holidays. If the $VIX breaks out, and we start seeing support levels break, then I'll be back.... 


Happy Holidays AA















Friday, December 13, 2019

Market Update 12/13/2019 Europe Leading, China Leading, and conflicting charts

Markets continue higher, heading into EOY window dressing, and News is propelling it. Also short squeeze Friday, and I didn't see this one coming. Thought it may be different this time, but no....

The Headlines:

1. Last weeks jobs number hype and hysteria. This doesn't really reflect the state of the economy.

2. USMCA - on the table, but still needs to be re-negotiated. 
See: Pass USMCA Coalition drops stance on passing USMCA - thehill

3. The ECB - Christine Lagarde

4. The FED - keeps rates unchanged as expected. This took the $VIX down, and markets up as predicted.

5. British Election = Brexit deal likely
Looks like a relief rally, but there's still a lot of uncertainty around what a Brexit deal is going to look like. Even Bloomberg is left asking why markets are up, because the liberals lost. Boohoo!
See: My call for European Stocks to lead, last week.

6. China Trade rumors - buy the rumor, sell the news
I called this trade from my Twitter feed 3 days ago:


Funny, I've been talking about how news headlines are being used to manipulate US futures markets, and then last week I watching watching Lou Dobbs interview, with Peter Navarro, and he asked if China is behind it. See the Video - Starts at 1:55 in - linked

I'm keeping the china chart close to my chest.
I already have too many charts in the public charts area, and it's becoming more of a distraction than it's worth. I find it's easier, and more effective to spend my time charting in the morning, and then alert to what I'm seeing, from my twitter feed, than updating the pubic charts area, and spending a lot of time writing these blogs. I haven't even had time to look at the $SPX this morning, but I have some charts to show you.

$DOW Key critical support is 27,500 - see the bear trap, where it broke below my pink support line.


Some Elliott Wave Theorists thing we're off to the races here in wave 3, and the DOW could easily run to 29000, but I still believe the entire run off last years low is a running wave (B). You can also see the breakout above the pink line on this chart, same as the above chart. 



$INDU - This messy chart shows today's breakout above the 28.2 level, and that becomes short term support, but in order to get to that 29,000 target by the end of the year, it would have to break above the top of the channel on this 2 year view. If it is wave 3 then that's possible. Wave 3 can break above the top of the channel, and continue trending above the top if the channel higher. It could consolidate above the 28,200 level, and take out the target in Feb, but now we're getting way ahead of ourselves, and we'll see how things progress. I'll add these charts to the public charts area, so you can watch this play out for yourself.

 $SPX - 10 yr chart: Considering the fact that we haven't even seen as much as a pullback on the $SPX since the 2018 reversal, and we just back-tested support at the breakout point @ 3045, and money is being printed like there's no tomorrow, this rally can and probably will continue. 


  $SPX DCS 2 year view - The DOW obviously lagging, and the chart looks nothing like this!
I'm seeing major resistance at my red arrow. Support is 3100. This is a good example of how confusing it can be when you compare one timeline to another!

My best guess is we at least get a pullback here, and fund managers will be closing their books (for 2019) soon, and probably want to lock in some profits. ST support looks like 3010ish, if it's going to back-test the breakout point.


$SPLV - The Low volatility $VIX - This holds a lot big overbought names, and looks like it's being liquidated as the smart money sells to the retail investor.


I blogged on this index a week or two ago, and it looked like bullish consolidation in a range. This is the chart I was referring to on Twitter, as the golden goose, but now I have 2 wildly conflicting charts. This used to lead, now it sits atop the top of the upper channel, and that's the stop hunt.

This is definitely one to watch - Support looks like 56 - not the greatest looking chart, but I did find the channel. Looks like wave 4 of 4, especially with the sideways action.




Here's another view, which looks really bullish, but to see sideways consolidation in this position, is a little odd. It's either bullish accumulation, or bearish accumulation




I'm out of time. Good luck, and Merry Christmas
AA




Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Market Update 12/10/2019 - The Public Charts Legend Is Complete!

Over the weekend I finished updating the Public Charts Legend (tab), on the top of the front page of this website. There's tons of valuable information in there, so check it out. Link  


Friday, December 6, 2019

Market Update 12/6/2018 - Pump 'n' Dump Markets Expected To Continue

Quick Update

The short term isn't too predictable, because of the light volume, and because the short sellers picked the wrong time of year to get short, and now they remain trapped - as I showed you yesterday - and you can see them capitulating on this mornings jobs number, but I expect this top to look just like the previous two...

1. Pump

2. Take profits

3. Dump




Yesterday we saw the $VIX beaten back down below the 15 level, even on more bad news reports coming out of China.  I believe my resistance line on the 10 min chart was correct, based on that news report, and the momentary $VIX breakout, but it couldn't even pullback more than a few points, before the $VIX was immediately hammered  back below 15. Manipulation 

That becomes the number to watch ($VIX 15), and you could probably add to your shorts over the next week or 2, and set a $VIX alert on your phone. I like the mobile Webull App, and it's Free. I"d also set an alert for $SPX 3100 level, because that's support, as we found out at yesterdays open.

We're in profit taking mode, as you can see on the chart, and that usually takes a couple weeks.

If we see a correction before the Christmas break, I'm still looking for support at the 50 day ma on the NASDAQ, and maybe just above 3000 on the $SPX. That would set up for a nice little Santa Rally, going into the end of the year.

I'll try to pin down a date as things progress, but like I said a couple days ago, "don't hold your breath". Enjoy the holidays! 

GL Traders,
AA

Thursday, December 5, 2019

Market Update 12/5/2019 Market Breaks Out; Right On Schedule

Seeing market futures being manipulated higher again this morning, on Headlines out of the UK: My European chart is proprietary, but I can tell you Europe is leading... and that's where Money Managers are looking for value.

The breaking news: 

1. General election news – live: Boris Johnson’s last-ditch tax cuts unveiled ‘in fear of Labour closing gap in polls’ - independent.co.uk story linked

2. Four Brexit Party MEPs are set to quit this morning and urge voters to back Tories - dailymail.co.uk story linked 

 Master market manipulator, Jim Cramer (if you read his books) was conspicuously seen on the set of Fast Money yesterday. Market breaks support, and the plunge protection team comes in, and repairs the chart. I have no doubt he's been working behind the scenes, since the crash of '08, when he called out the Federal Reserve. I think practically nobody has more experience rigging markets, than James Cramer. 

I think the powers that be were caught with their pants down when the $VIX broke out, but they're right back at it - rigging volatility. It's easy...

Monday, we saw a surprise to the downside, which broke support, followed by a gap up, on Tuesday. Trap doors were sprung, but now you see them closed again. If you're watching the public charts area, you know what I'm talking about.   

$NDX See the black line (support), and the blue trap door (closed). That means, if you went short on Monday, you're trapped.  


I suspect the short sellers are going to remain trapped for a while. The bears crying in my twitter feed are contrarians, who obviously don't follow this blog. "Never sell a dull market", for the hundredth time. 

Think the market can't be held up for a few more weeks? 

1. We got the FED announcement just before Dec. OPEX, then the Christmas break, and nobody wants to put on massive short positions going into the holidays. 

2. The bulls aren't going to take profits until 2020, because they don't want to have to pay taxes on there massive gains.  

*3. Sell-off 's start off slowly, and snap-back rallies take time to complete. 

*Let's use $TSLA as an example, since I called the recent reversal. Let's assume it's already in a bear market. See wave 1. Wave 2 takes time to complete, in order to form a bearish channel. That could take as long as January.... 




The DOW looks like it's going to fill the gap at the open, and possibly break out above 27750. That would become the next support level. You can see where it was driven back above my green support line yesterday.       

That's a bullish looking chart, and a path to 29k by March, if MM's are forced to chase performance.

I do think we're going to get another little downside surprise, but see the trend the chart below.

$SPLV - $SPX - low volatility ETF -
This one has been consolidating in a range for 2+ months, so it's no wonder the $SPX is struggling.


$ALLK - This was an awesome call yesterday, and I was able to chart it in real time, in about 1 min, and find the upside target.


I think the rally in energy is about to fizzle, but it's gold miners, I'm really bearish on.

$NUGT - Seeing a down-turned megaphone pattern on this 3x miner bull. I'd trade into $DUST, and use the 30 level on $NUGT as your stop. If $NUGT breaks out, that would be bullish.



Follow the public charts at the link provided in the side menu.
I'll be charting the open in real time, as usual.
AA








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Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Market Update 12/4/2019 $SPX 3100

I wake up at 3 AM this morning, and I decide to check futures, and there they are breaking out, above the magic 3100 level. Not much of a surprise, as the $DAX has already crawled back above the 13k level. $DAX up = US futures up, for the past - almost - 12 months.


We saw the #VIX hammered right at resistance, and you won't see panic selling, until it breaks out again. Don't hold your breath.

Another way they manipulate markets higher, is by hammering the leveraged bear funds.
$SOXS to get hammered back down at the open. 


The FakeNews is obsessed with everything Trump, and even Lou Dobbs reported, last night, that the market fell on Trump's negative China comments. Of course the machines are trading those headlines, and this is all being coordinated. It's no surprise CNBC comes on at 4 AM, on the east coast to push the Bullish Trump Trade headline, which triggers the Quant Trading programs. Market Futures Manipulation complete!  After watching this 10+ years, I suspect the Powers that be have been rigging markets for 70 years, so it's no wonder the banks never face criminal charges, for their racketeering.


The Charts: 
I've been updating the public charts area this morning, and added this $TSX chart, just as Bloomberg was seen reporting, "The Market Whipsaw" continues.

TSX - ride the whipsaw. Wave 5 can fall short, or throw-over, and will probably take at least a couple days to complete.


$APPL - took out my revised downside target - at the lower purple line - at the open. Until they sell Apple, there's isn't a correction, and the banksters at $JPM just raised the target. 
 

DOW - The LT Dow Chart I published yesterday, pulled back to my pink support line. 50 day ma is trading just below it, but will probably be taken out if support breaks.



I have a lot of charting to do. Watch for alerts in my twitter feed, and more importantly the support levels, $VIX levels, and the public charts. 

Later, AA





Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Market Update 12/3/2019 - DOW 28,000 breaks

The short term charts are breaking, so we'll be going to longer term charts.
I see a 27500 target on the DOW. Still trading in a bullish channel

$SPX 3100 is taken out in pre-market. That's going to take out my pink stophunt, on my 10 min chart, so we're bound to see some panic selling at the open.


In yesterday's blog, I mentioned that the Michael Bloomberg Network, was trying to blame this pullback on Trump, as always do, and next thing you know the Trump campaign bans their reporters from covering any further rallies, or campaign events, and Trump labels Globalist, China lover, Michael Bloomberg, "#mini-mike".   See: Trump campaign to blacklist Bloomberg News - axios
Also See: Video shows Bloomberg saying China's 'Xi Jinping is not a dictator' Taiwan News 


Later in the day, I'm checking the charts, and notice that $APPL and $AMD aren't being sold, and tweet the bullish chart, and only a few hours later $JPM raises their target on Apple.



$APPL - looks like it's trading into a bullish consolidation in wave 4. I'll be providing updates on this one, in my twitter feed.




Something I forgot to mention last week, is the gap target on the $NYSE, finally filled. I did however alert to it in the public charts area, and you'll find an identical chart in there. This index failed to make a new all time high, and a (W) - (X) - (Y) pattern is a bearish combination pattern. That would mean that the entire rally of 2019 was a snap-back rally in a bear market.

Looking at the DOW, you can see the larger EW count - a bearish running wave B - in a sideways triangle, or pennant pattern. Yesterday's little sell-off is hardly even visible on the chart.

It's too soon to establish a down-trend in a bear market, but we'll see what pattern develops, and which sectors are leading.

I was feeling a little under the weather yesterday, so I didn't spend much time charting, and will probably be taking it easy, again today.

I still think we could see a big bull market in energy, and you see it consolidating on the chart below.
$IXE - Energy


My thoughts are they will run Energy up on the Saudi IPO. Sectors rotation out of Tech, and whatever else is over-bought, into Energy stocks. 

We could even see  gold money rolled over into Oil.  

$GOAU  miners -

Oil - The trend remains up, and the $USO closed on the 50 day ma. That's the level to watch


Everyone is bearish Energy, and most investors know Oil sands is a bankrupt industry, so I wouldn't be expecting worse news. 

That's it for today. I'm going to have my hands full at today's open.

Take Care,
AA

Monday, December 2, 2019

Market Update 12/2/2019 - Cyber Monday

Dow 28k Day 3.

Market futures up as predicted in my twitter feed on Black Friday. Continue to watch the $VIX target I alerted to last week. That becomes the pivot.

$VIX gapped up exactly where I said it would, last week, and Friday, there wasn't a buyer to be found.
I think we've seen the top, but I suppose we could retest the highs one more time. The $VIX is sitting above support, but I suspect the powers that be will punch it back down, one more time.

The Micheal Bloomberg network is trying to blame this weakness on a Trump tweet, about replacing steel, and aluminum, tariffs, on Brazil, and Argentina, but Europe is actually leading the way down, on Political unrest in Germany. See: Merkel crisis: German leadership on brink as coalition cracks – 'cannot continue' - Express.co.uk

The $DAX topped out about a week ago, and has been struggling ever since so US markets should not have traded to new highs, but manipulators gonna manipulate, this time of year.

I see a scenario in which Germany, and Canada, and others continue into a bearish wave 5, but this isn't a target I'm trading into, and if support breaks right here, stops are going to be taken out.

$SPY is looking very toppy here


Can't wait to see what the pullback looks like.

If the $SPX somehow manages to make a new high, it will probably coincide with the lower channel on this 3X leveraged $SPX bear ETF chart, around the $26 level. Maybe a little washout below there. This isn't the time to be complacent. 


Opening bell rang 3 minutes ago,
Follow me on Twitter @3XTraders
AA