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Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Market Update - Technical Tuesday - May 17h, 2016

I don't usually have time for a blog update during the week, but I was able to get caught up on all my charting yesterday, as the market rallied...

We saw a semi-powerful rally on Monday, a reversal in AAPL, and Biotech. Oil continued to rally. Gold rallied at the open, only to quickly rolled over, and close about flat. It was a decent broader market rally, but weaker than expected, and followed by a weak close. There's still a lot of nervousness in this market, and that makes me nervous.

Yesterday I predicted that Oil may decouple from the market but that's a pretty bold call. We'll have to see what happens when energy rolls over, and play it safe.

I think we're close to a big reversal in Oil; this upturned wedge is short term bearish in my book.

If we see the false breakout (throw over) in oil as depicted above and Energy rally back to 564 on the $DJUSEN (dow energy) chart, that looks like perfect re-entry for short sellers.   

Financials were only up .64%. Doesn't point to a major reversal. Maybe we retest support one more time.

As far as the S&P 500 The bears came in an sold the 200 day, yesterday, but I have a 2088 target on the S&P - a powerful - yet minuette - wave "C". If this is correct than last weeks sell-off was only the first leg down in a bigger correction.

On the other hand if this rally can find legs, and the $VIX comes down, we'll start looking for the next bullish channel.

Resistance on the $GLD looks like 122. I'll be providing that chart, and many others throughout the day, as usual at the opening bell in 15 min, at @3xtrades
Good luck Traders, AA

Monday, May 16, 2016

Technical market update for the week of May 15th, 2016

"When others get scared I get greedy" Warren Buffet 

Market update for the week of May 15th, 2016
I updated the subtitle of this update when I heard Warren Buffet invested in AAPL, which I still like in this 90.50 range - as I tweeted last week.

 Last update as the market stalled, I suggested buying the dips and selling the rips. Now that we've seen the market walked down over the past few weeks, we're bottom picking again, and especially considering this week is Options Expiration (OPEX), and with the Memorial Day holiday just around the corner - that should bring short covering. We may see energy, and gold, decouple from the rest of the market, going into the start of the summer.  
GOLD - I have 2 outlooks for gold: 1. Bearish. 2. Extremely bearish. Gold got ahead of itself back in March, and instead of consolidating sideways, to lower, it's traded higher into a bearish wave b (head-fake rally). Now I think we're bound to see a nasty correction as plotted on the chart below. A shakeout in a powerful minor wave c of B.
The extremely bearish outlook for gold looks like new lows in a panic wave E  
I'm expecting the $SPX to bounce out of the hole first thing Monday morning. I think there's a good possibility we'll see mixed markets, with tech & financials leading again.
The chart below is from my public charts area, linked in the (left) side menu.
Here's the Dow chart - also in a parallel channel:
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