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Thursday, November 21, 2019

Market Update 11/21/2019 - Reviewing Wednesdays Awesome Oil/Energy Trade - Market Reversal

Taking a victory lap 

Reviewing Wednesdays Awesome Oil/Energy Trade

$Oil - broke out above the 50 day moving average - as anticipated Tuesday afternoon - and it ran all the way back to the 200 day. That amounted to a 10% move on the leveraged oil Bull, before noon.  It was about that time, I alerted folks to take profits, and Oil fell back below the 200 day. So, that trade is off the table, unless, or until it can break out again. I think it needs to consolidate.

What's also nice is I warned one of my (paying) people, who informed me he was 3X short oil Tuesday afternoon, that "I would not be short oil the next morning." Hopefully, he took my advice.   

Of course, it didn't take long to be trolled by some degenerate gambler on Twitter. I suppose he was short oil, yesterday, and being a sore LOSER.  

Market Reversal 
We saw the market manipulators caught swimming naked in the pool, when the $VIX finally broke out, on more bad China news. It was a beautiful thing, to watch play out on the chart, and I just happened to be charting it in real time. If you were watching, and refreshing your browser, you saw where support broke, and the $VIX alerts. Super easy trade.

Of course they rushed in and drove the $VIX down, trying to stuff the genie back in the bottle.

This morning, we saw good China news, trigger machine buying, and futures driven into the green, because that's supposed to bring buyers back. It's a feel good move, because they can, but you don't see the $DAX in the green. Germans don't gamble their retirement money in the stock market. "Investing", is an American phenomenon.  

We got 2 days of normal trading left, before volume falls off a cliff, and then the powers that be can take the market wherever they like. Maybe it bounces, back or maybe it's walked down, but holiday trading is usually pretty unpredictable, and nobody wants to get.  

Trading won't return to normal, until after Cyber Tuesday, when traders return.

$SPX - I may put this 1 min chart in the public charts area, if I get bored, but I'm thinking about taking next week off. 

Here's something interesting: 

The @Chartress at Bloomberg came out, after the market rolled over, and pointed to the "SKEW", (which is a fear gauge), a her point was that fear has been building, regardless of the lower $VIX, as seen on the SKEW. 

I think this helps proves my point, that the $VIX is being manipulated, and it's not Bloomberg doing it. It's the other network! That would make sense, since Bloomberg reports real news, unlike CNBC. I already knew money was tightening up, as evidenced by the $TED spread, and the $VIX was out of order, but the SKEW is new to me. Adding this one to my arsenal.  

Looks like the $VIX has some catching up to do!

 Seeing futures UNCH now, and I don't believe they can put the $VIX back in the bottle.
I think we're going a little lower, before rallying back on light volume next week, but what I think doesn't matter much. Trust the charts. 

I'll be charting the open as usual. Link to the Public Charts

Take, care

P.S. I see a nice trade in BitCoin coming, if you trade BC, or BC futures.
Drop me a line...




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