Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Market Update 10/16/2019 - Investors Really Bullish, Or Just Another Engineered Short Squeeze? PART 1

 Market sentiment indicators are some of the most important things I watch. I'm talking about Put/Call ratios... but even the $VIX tells you where short term sentiment is, and this is why I always watch it like a hawk. If you see the $VIX rocketing skyward, you can bet bad news is coming, and when the $VIX continues to be hammered below key support levels, you know it's a risk on situation. 

Last week, the $VIX was hammered below the 50 week moving average, so it was pretty obvious the risk trade was going to remain on.

 Earlier in the week, Bloomberg was telling investors that, "Put buying had reached extreme levels", and pointing to that, as proof, that investors had become overly bearish), but it's easy to prove that's as much of a lie. Pull up the $BPNYA for yourself, and you'll see sentiment is in the middle of the range. Bullish sentiment peaked, back in April, and it's steadily come down from those levels, but we are a far way from extreme bearish (sentiment) levels. 

Bloomberg was also see reporting that a "Brexit deal could get done - as soon as - by the end of the day yesterday"; That was before the Irish PM, stated that there's more work to do, and that deal may not even get done by the end of the week, but it was enough fake news to cause some more panic buying.  

This is typically what the MSM does, when they (the Powers That Be) want to stick it to the bears; they'll report rumors, bogus numbers, and upgrades, and egg on the bulls. It's beyond obvious to anyone who'd watched it for any length of time.

There's defiantly a battle going on, with half of technical analysts bullish, and half bearish.
  

I didn't even get to scratch the surface of what's really going on, and I'm out of time.

I'll be adding an indicator to the Legend to the Public Charts, and that's an upturned/ or down-turned trend line, as seen below.

$COMPQ - see the reversals at the colored trend line arrow points. Also note that this still looks like a suckers rally.



Watch the $VIX 14 level, since that becomes the short term pivot, and I'll be charting the open as usual.

GL, AA  


 P.S. I've decided to break this update up into at least 2 parts
















Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Market Update 10/15/2019 - Bearish as hell!

 Note: I've added a legend (Tab/Page) to the home page - to help explain how to read the charts in the Public Charts area. I'll also update my short term, and long term outlook there.

Friday, I removed a bunch of charts, including Oil, and Energy, which seem to be going nowhere, and the $RUT, and whatever else I feel like I don't have time to chart. It's become too much like work updating 8 different sectors, and I just don't have the time.... This morning I though I might add a financial chart, on bank earnings, which is no-doubt what investors are watching, but no....
Maybe I'll add more charts this winter, when I have more time, or when an opportunity presents itself.      

Friday, we saw shorts sellers chased out, ahead of a 3 day weekend, of sorts. I figure, since it was a banking holiday, and school-age kids have Columbus day off, lot's of traders take the day off.  This didn't occur to me on Friday, but looking back, it helps to explain Friday's action, and yesterday's flat market.

$SPX - looking at the 15 min chart - located in the public charts area. This morning we're seeing a little snap-back rally, after Friday's run for the exits. That was also perfectly timed, moments before the China deal news was sold, I put an annotation on the chart calling it, "bearish as hell". Some would say this was a, "buy the rumor, sell the news", trade. Just looked like another excuse to squeeze the retail short sellers to me.  
  

See the pink line, where the bid was raised above the same level as it was in Sept? That's what I'm watching, since that was pure manipulation, on yet another short squeeze Friday.

Getting back to financials: I was watching the idiots on Fast Money, a week or two ago, and one of them (think it was Joe Tarrnova?), said they were looking for a higher (multi-year) high on the $XLF, of all things? As I've said before an ETF, and an index is 2 different things! 

An ETF, and an index is 2 different things:  

$DJUSFN (Dow Financials)   Financials are already trading at a multi-year high, so why would anyone be looking for a higher high on an ETF chart? 

$XLF - ETF charts don't provide you with accurate target's because they don't precisely track the underlying index. This would be like looking for higher highs on the $SPY, instead of the $SPX. Pure ignorance!

$SPY - The most highly traded $SPX ETF -
1. Made an all time high in Dec., unlike the $SPX
2. Came within $3 from an all time high, on Friday. 
3. Ended with a bearish hammer, at resistance. Obvious reversal.


Assuming you have you're own stockcharts account, it's easy enough to compare the high, pie, in the sky, $SPY, to the underlying index ($SPX).

What about the Technology sector, is it breaking out to new all time highs?
 $DJUSTC (Dow Tech) hasn't made a higher high since August, and if it does... that would be an even better sell target! 

This market is toxic, and it seems to me, it's the dumb money looking for higher highs.
Maybe the $SPX can test the 3000 level again, withing a few days, but I would be net short, not hoping for another false breakout.

$VIX 14.50 is the pivot - meaning that if we see a lower $VIX at today's open, followed by a $VIX reversal - back above the 14.50 level - that's where fear returns, and as the $VIX breaks back above the 200 week moving average (14.67), that could trigger program selling.

Of course timing is tricky, and I could be a week early - as I was when I started calling for a $EURO/GBP reversal back in early August - but some times you gotta stick to your guns.

I'll be charting the open as usual, but I may be away from my desk most the day.
Good Luck,
AA




Friday, October 11, 2019

Market Update Oct. 11th, 2018 - (another) Happy Short Squeeze Friday

Of course, I saw this rally continuing yesterday, and alerted to it in real time - in the Public Charts Area. I believe the market is getting ahead of itself, but it is what it is. I'm still working on an upside target on this rally, and watching too many charts, but at least I have all day to try to get a handle on it.



This is how it always (99% of the time) goes. 

1. Drive the $VIX up ahead of OPEX - setting the bear trap

3. Squeeze the shorts into OPEX.

No doubt the short sellers are going to remain trapped going into the weekend, and keep in mind monthly OPEX is only a week away.

Knowing every Options expiration is an opportunity to manipulate markets, helps me time it... and hopefully the perma-bears who still follow this blog are no longer getting caught in the bear trap (s).   
Yesterday's trade: No sooner than the market opened, it was clear it was going higher, and I put a bullish channel on it, and by the late afternoon it clear, the $VIX was being hammered down, ahead of, yet another, Short Squeeze Friday.
 

Funny, the idiots at Bloomberg are calling the rally in Oil, "a snap reaction", but not calling the rally in equities, "a snap reaction".

Getting back to the market getting ahead of itself; I believe we could get another sharp pullback, before rallying higher into Oct. OPEX, and without getting too much into Elliott Wave Theory, I think the sharp pullback we saw earlier in the week, wasn't the end of consolidation. I wish I had more time to go into it, but I have charting to do.

$VIX.... *

Correction: =  In the meantime, keep a close eye on the $VIX, That's the 50 week ma (*16.75), as I alerted to yesterday, and watch for alerts in the Public charts area.

I'm out of time



 



Thursday, October 10, 2019

Market Update 10/10/2019 - Breakout denied!

Yesterday's rally was weaker than expected, so I did something I don't do too often; I sounded the warning in the middle of the day, and you saw the rush for the exits going into the close. Futures were also sold pretty hard, but then buyers rushed in, and Oil went from red to green, overnight.  

There were several reasons I pulled the plug on yesterday's rally:

1. Continued market weakness! I was looking for some upside momentum, or a breakout, and nothing! Sure, I got the direction right again, and I even got $TRAN right, but no breakouts.

2. I didn't like the fact that the volume was so light, thanks to the Jewish holy day, Yom Kippur - something I hadn't even taken into consideration, when I put out yesterday's update. Holiday trading can be quite unpredictable.  

3. The $VIX remains high. It could hardly even fill the gap (up) from a day earlier. That's a red flag!

Speaking of the $VIX: I updated most of my $VIX charts this morning, and actually found some things I hadn't noticed before. A key to finding the next market bottom!  Of course, I'm not going to give that away!

I also found that the $VIX continues to trend down, and there's really not that much risk, at the moment. I don't publish my $VIX charts, but I can tell you the $VIX is trading in a range, between support at the 50 week moving average, and resistance at the 200 month moving average. It remains below 20, so I'm not sure why investors would be "spooked", as was being reported yesterday. 

I also charted the long term $RUT, because even after doing this for 10 years, I find I still improve my technique, year over year.

$RUT - This one remains totally oversold, and the $RVX (the $RUT fear gauge) could only manage to hit 25.13, earlier in the month. The previous high on the $RVX was 25.43, back in August. I'd be a buyer of Calls if we see that level tested again.



Trade back to the top of the range - seen in purple. Hopefully this doesn't take until after Thanksgiving, but this when the short sellers tend to get squeezed out.

I've added some bearish charts to the public charts area. The one to watch is the trend on the $NYSE.
The trend remains down, like I said yesterday, and that chart proves it.  

As far as today's trade:

I'm only expecting a little more consolidation ( sideways to lower), before making another run at yesterday's target (s)

Link it the Public Charts area,

Good Luck,
AA 














        

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Market Update 10/9/2019 - Market Rallies As Predicted

It looks like I have, "the hot hand", as they say in the bidness, but this was an easy call.

I got lots of great trades to get to this morning, so let's get it!

 The 15 min. chart worked perfectly, and this mornings relief rally, looks like a powerful wave "c".
 This typically what the live chart - located in the public charts area - looks like. A little busy and messy. 


$SPX:  1 min chart shows resistance at 2940/2945, so that's a level to watch.

I think those 2 charts (above) should suffice for a day at least. The $VIX looks like it overshot yesterday, so as long as it remains below 20, not worries.  

Brent Crude - Oil bounces out of the hole, after building a base. 

Energy should follow, but I have an alternative bullish trade already lined up, if it doesn't

$TRAN 3X BULL $TPOR: You won't find this chart in the public charts area, and I just don't have time to add it this morning. Maybe tomorrow...


$NUGT - 3X Bull/ Speaking of 3X leveraged trades. This one looks like it's ready to take the next leg down. Shorting these funds can be even more profitable than buying the opposite (bear) fund, because all these funds bleed value in a flat market. I'm sure there are hedge funds who short them all. WORD OF WARNING trading this 3X miner bull is risky; riskier than even trading oil here, but you know you're risk tolerance.



 
EEM should lead this rally, along with Oil.



Let's look at the Dow.

$INDU - I don't think I have a 30 min Dow chart in the public charts area, but this is the target....
 The short term trend remains down, so remain cautious.

I'll be away from my desk most the day. I'll set the charts to auto-refreash, and check in when I can.

Good luck,
AA







Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Market Update 10/8/2019 - Market Sells Off As Predicted Yesterday

In yesterday's update, I predicted that the market could hold up for a day (or 2) before breaking the 50 day moving average (again). I even alerted to this trade in the public charts area, telling folks to, "sell into Technical Tuesday", and by the close that (now broken) moving average was already flashing a SELL SIGNAL.    

We're seeing futures only down less than 1%, and even Bloomberg host is asking, "shouldn't the market be down more"? lol That was my 3rd prediction - that this would only look like a pullback, and it does....   There's a lot more I could reveal about this reversal, but I like to give away all my secrets.

 This reversal, looks like a good reason to take profits and fill the gap left behind around the 2900 area, as well as the gap left behind on the $VIX. 

Of course Energy was sold, and if you were watching the energy chart - located in the public charts area, you saw that alert. Closed down 1%.

I haven't given up on energy, but you don't see buyers stepping in there... it's a dead trade at the moment. 

A link to the public charts area can be found in the left hand menu

That's all I got today,
AA



 

 




Monday, October 7, 2019

Market Wrapup - Week ending 10/5/2019 - Is this a Bear Market?

I started this blog after Friday's close, and wanted to finish it over the weekend, but caught up in other things, including a bad android update, which rendered my cell phone unusable.

I expected to be away from my desk on Friday, but I got rained out at the last minute, so I was able to get a good read on the market, and I don't like what I see. Seems like ever since trading picked up - after the summer - we've seen the $VIX driven down (manipulated as usual), and shorts squeezed, before the market finally rolls over again.    

Friday we saw the gap fill on the $SPX, on a just ok jobs report - of all things - but this was an excuse to squeeze the short sellers, and this is typically the type of trading you see in a bear market. It's all a game, and one most retail short sellers consistently lose; if you trade the crash of 07 - 08, that puts you at a huge disadvantage.... 

Is this a Bear Market? The market has managed to hold up for the past 18 months, but the $NYSE topped out in early 2018. This is where the plunge protection team dropped the ball.
   

$NYSE - This is what your 401k looks like.  At best the broader market is a sideways range, and the $NYSE is seen back testing (bearish) the 50 day moving average, on a short capitulation Friday. That's looks like a bear market, regardless of that the TheFed, and the lying main stream media is reporting.


The DOW also back-tested the 50 day.  That's bearish, and you see futures down this morning.

As far as I could tell, Friday's rally was contained to the tech sector, and when I see traders bullish on stocks like Apple, trading into a super-bearish pattern, at a lower all time high, I just have to shake my head. When was the last time Apple did anything innovative, anyhow, but I guess with all the shitty IPO action, money has to go somewhere.

$APPL - this is the one to watch. I'm seeing a lot of bullish sentiment.... and that's a contrarian indicator. Maybe it throws over the top of the triangle, before crashing back to earth? Could even touch an all time high, as the bulls like to squeeze the retail short sellers out, before taking profits. We call that, "the ol' pump 'n' dump".



I called out Netflix a couple weeks ago, but it looks like that one can't find it's legs. Maybe it retest the lows, and consolidates into Thanksgiving. That's where you're likely to see a more sustainable short covering rally.


 TECL 3X Tech bull: Driven above the 50 day ma. Remember in Friday's update I was talking about leveraged ETF's being bought at the moving averages? We'll, is more than just dumb traders doing that, these funds are being used to manipulate entire sectors.



But amazingly we saw the same thing on the $DJUSTC chart!

$DJUSTC - they raised the bid above the 50 day ma....


Long term Tech  - remains over-bought, and in a massive bubble.


We only a saw a pullback on Energy, and the $RUT didn't rally at all, so maybe we're going to see one sector pumped and dumped at a time, or some sort of sector rotation?

We did see $TRAN rally 1%, but it doesn't look like we're off to the races...


Short term - I think, after all these big moves, the market needs to consolidate (lower), but it could hold up for a day or 2.

That's all the time I got.

Later, AA    






 

Friday, October 4, 2019

Market Update 10/4/2019 - "Why is the market up?" Part 1


We'll get to yesterday's perfectly executed trade, in a moment, but first let's look at what, "The Enemy of the State", and their leftist propaganda machine (specifically CNBC), is up to.
Read: The Radical Left: Enemy of the State or Loyal Opposition? American Thinker - September 25, 2019


"Why is the market up?"


I don't make a habit of watching CNBC, but yesterday I saw this question posed, by the host of Fast Money, to the Fast Money crew, at CNBC - why is the market up? - at which they all kind of shrugged their shoulders, and gave answers like "selling exhaustion?", and "over-sold?". 

The question itself implies that the market should not be up, and this adds weight to the continuing bearish narrative being pushed by this network. They also claim that we typically see volatility spike in Oct, which I debunked right here! You know what I think? I think they're all short!   

 CNBC/MSNMC/NBC is rooting for a recession, and certain fast money traders blame every market pullback on a "Trump tweet". See:  MSNBC Host OPENLY Hopes For Recession On Live Television.

These people would like nothing more, than seeing the economy tank, as it did in 2008, in order to get on with their political agenda, and I suppose they feel like it's their duty, to talk down the economy, and even take the market down, if they can, but the market moves on it's only time line, and in predictable patterns. 

It's hard for me to believe, these so called pro-traders, can't even find a support level, when I found it so easilly, so they're either ignorant, or dishonest. You decide...

 See PART 2....  











 

Market Update Oct 4, 2019 - "Why Is The Market Up" - Part 2


This morning I ran into trouble with (blogger) save errors, so I had to remove some links, and break it up into 2 Parts. I'm still getting random errors, but I'm hoping to wrap this up before the opening bell. 

Yesterday Morning: The pulled back into our support target, and the $VIX was slammed back down below 21, which I alerted to in real time in the chart annotations - on the 15 min $SPX chart. 

 From there we saw a nice rally back above the 2900 level, where I didn't feel comfortable chasing it. I'd like to see the market pullback, and build a base, before moving higher, but you know how that usually goes. 

Found a rather interesting pattern on the $TRAN chart, and in case you didn't know it, $TRAN is a leader for the DOW.  Looks like 6 months of bullish consolidation to me, and considering the fact that the financial fake news was beating the bear drum on airlines yesterday, there's a good chance all the bad news is priced in. It's been nearly a year, since the IMF warned of a global slow-down. 

$TRAN - could see another retest of support, or even a little shakeout....  but watch for a breakout above the 9800 level. This is the one to watch!


Oil and, the energy sector usually run hand in hand, so let's take a look at oil. I was correct when I remained bearish on the Saudi short squeeze, but then I got it wrong, as the trend continued to break, and the $USO continued to sell-off below the 200 day ma. I assume you know where to cut your losses...  

Oil - has given back that entire Sept rally, but yesterday it finally bounced out of the hole, and with it, the Oil service sector.

$BRENT - back above support after a little shakeout.... $TRAN reversal, Market reversal, Oil reversal?

 

WTI Crude - I don't have an upside target, yet this is key support, and another bullish hammer


Remember what I was saying yesterday about ETF's, not really tracking the underlying index too well. Actually, I was talking moving averages, but the later also true.

The $USO remains in a bearish channel (seen in blue), and you can't really find the bottom, using this ETF chart. The bearish channel is valid, but the rest of the chart, not so much.

One more thing. I alerted to the volume in oil, on the weekly BRENT crude chart, and you can see it's up. I think we get a nice bounce here, but if that pink line breaks, bad things are going to happen. I wouldn't even trade oil unless you're experienced.... and it's safer to wait for confirmation of the trend reversal. Just be careful, and know your risk tolerance.


As far as the rest of the market is concerned. DOW 26.1 becomes support, although the candle looks more like a hanging man, than a bullish hammer. Support is the 200 day ma, and resistance is the gap left behind at the 50 day ma. Pretty simple. 

$INDU



I think I don't have the time to complete Part 1, of this update, and I plan to be away from my desk most the day. I'll chart the open, and set the public charts to auto-refresh, and check them when I have time. 

Good luck,
AA


P.S.
I'll be away from my desk most the day.

Thursday, October 3, 2019

Market Update 10/3/2019 - Hong Kong Imposes Martial Law

 Hong Kong Imposes Martial Law 


  "The wide range of powers extends to censorship of media, arrests, detentions and deportations, the control of ports and all transport, the appropriation of property, and authorizing the entry and search of premises and the censorship and suppression of publications and communications. South China Morning Post, August 30, 2019

Of course, the communist Chinese, and corporate owned, main steam media, is reporting something different; Hong Kong Imposes "Emergency" Law, because that sounds less authoritarian, but if it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it's a duck, and I'm certain, they will impose the same thing here in America, once the leftist radicals finally decide to, "shut it down".

Re: The Civil War taking place within our own government - Just as I blogged earlier in the week - now it comes out that the deep state Dems had colluded with the so called whistle-blower, for weeks... They were just waiting for the right time, to drop their phony bombshell. In fact it finally reported yesterday, that the CIA "whistleblower" (leaker) ran the idea past Rep. Schiff’s staff, before he even filed the report against President Trump, The New York Times reported.

There's you're real collusion 2.0, between the inept CIA, and the radicals... and the fact that Shiff lied about it, that's the real coverup attempt. Funny, Shawn Hannity didn't report this until last night, 1 day after the New York Times had reported it, and the rest of FOX News ignores the story all together. I guess Cavuto and comp. are too busy comparing Trump (impeachment)... to what happened to markets after Nixon, and Bill Clinton. There really is no comparison... but I think as long as they can outrage the public, it keeps people watching.

 Re: "Censorship and suppression of publications and communications"

We may not be under martial law yet, but we are living in militarized police state, and we are seeing  "censorship and suppression of publications and communications", just as Hong Kong is. 

1. Just yesterday they tried to ban Trump himself from Twitter. See: Is Kamala Harris Right That Twitter Should Ban Trump? nymag.com.
 
2. "Joe Biden's campaign demands major networks quit booking Rudy Giuliani as a guest, saying they want him to be silenced! 

This is leftist fascism in America, and the corporate owned main stream media is marching in lock step! Scary stuff 


Getting to this morning's less important market update: 


First thing I wanted to do this morning (at 3 AM) was to check the $DAX, because where Germany goes, US markets go, and what I found it astonishing! I was able to find a bearish channel on the long term $DAX - unlike on any of the major US indices - but the short term chart is bullish, after today's 3% washout. 
 
$DAX - This is one of my best indicators, along with several others, I don't give away for free, but I can show you why the market was sold where it was. Right shoulder, on a bearish H&S pattern was sold. 

Same bearish H&S pattern I alerted to on the $NYSE:


We saw another right shoulder, on a massive H&S pattern on the $BKX. You can check that on a 3 year chart!

$DOW - Getting back to US markets, and where they broke down.

1. The 27,000 level was sold in conjunction with the impeachment news. Think this wasn't coordinated...? LOL

2. Support at 26, 600 was taken out along with the 50 day moving average.

Ignore the black down-arrows - support looks like 25,750 - 26k, and that can either be tested on a lower $VIX high, or a slightly higher $VIX high. I hate giving out $VIX targets here, but I guess 23.50 is possible, and that's still below the high we saw over the summer.  



$DRIP - Leveraged Oil & Gas Bear ETF. Stay away from this, in fact I like the opposite trade $GUSH, I think it is?  More below...



I often see ETF's trading as if they're indices, but there's one big, major, difference, between the moving averages on Oil, for instance, and an Oil ETF. Last I checked, the $USO moving averages were trading pretty much in line with Oil, but that's rare.

Look at the buying into $DRIP at the 50 day. Don't ever do that, because moving averages don't apply to these funds! Uninformed traders obviously bought the breakout, but that's not a valid indicator!

I really want to blog more on ETFs, but I'm running out of time. Maybe next time!

That's all, Thanks for reading
AA 














Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Market update 10/2/2019 - Part 2

It's been a busy morning but most of the Public chart have been updated; I've been providing real time $VIX alerts, and I've even added a short term NASDAQ chart. It's one of the few charts, where I was able to find a bearish channel, and kind of fits the pattern we've been seeing lately.


$EEM - Ideally you want to be able to establish a trend, and in hindsight, the trend on emerging markets is clear. Nice clean channel.



So this sell-off seems to be all about Energy, and Emerging markets, more than anything else.

Getting back to the $VIX: Yesterday someone I've never seen before comes on CNBC, to tell us the $VIX always spikes in Oct. I knew this was BS, but I thought it would be good to document it, as such.



$VIX does not usually spike in Oct., so why would CNBC publish these lies? I think you know why.
 Truth is the $VIX has only spiked above the 200 month moving average, a few times in the past 10 years.

So, then I thought, maybe I better check the $VXN. Maybe the NASDAQ sells off in Oct? Uh, no, 'fraid not. There's no correlation that I can find that ties volatility spikes, with the month of Oct., and that confirms everything I think about the financial fake news, and those who manipulate it.  



$OIH
I mentioned in my annotations - on the 15 min SPX chart - located in my public charts - that I like energy, and Oil service stocks, so I wanted to publish that chart. Oil may have given it all back, but not the oil service sector.



  Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a dovish speech on Friday, and that's bound to send volatility plummeting. 


That's all the time I got.
Be long or be wrong,
AA











Market Update 10/2/2019 - The Trap Door

 I got rained out; on my outdoor projects, so I got plenty of time to analyze the situation, and I'll be charting the open - in real time - as usual. Hopefully, I can get this update completed by the opening bell, because this is going to be a hairy open. 

Yesterday, I was watching Art Cashin (whom I respect) on CNBC, talking about support levels, and the bottom of the range, and that if we were to see that support (around the 26,600 level on the DOW) break, we'll see, "the trap door could open", which is another way of saying, "we could see the rug pulled out". This is typically what happens when key support breaks.   

I assume that's the same range we've been watching on a 5 min chart, or it could be the 50 day moving average, which was also being tested... I think probably the latter. 

Yesterday's bearish reversal at the DOW 27,000 level was obvious, and by the end of the day we were testing the bottom of the bottom of the range, and the 50 day ma. 

This morning we're seeing support levels break, but again, not much panic.

 I think, if futures were down more, I'd be more bearish, but this doesn't feel like a, trap door, moment. If the $VIX breaks out above 20 with gusto, and it continues to break out, then we can confirm a bearish reversal, but not until then.   

What was really odd, was to see the $RUT plummet to new recent lows, yet the $RVX is no where near testing the recent highs. We're also not seeing a huge flight to safety in Gold.        

Someone called this a reballencing, at the end of the quarter, whatever the hell that means.

I think we could see a sector rotation, back into energy, and you can find that chart in the public charts area.

Biotech: We've seen this sector trashed, on "corporate debt concerns", and we could see a breakout back above the 3135 level on this chart.


I'm already out of time so this is going to have to extend into a Part 2.

To be continued..

Watch the public charts, and the $VIX this morning! 
AA








Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Really: "Stocks Headed For A Chaotic October"? Market Update October 1, 2019

"Stocks Headed For A Chaotic October"?

In quotes, because this is the Banner, FOX business was seen running this morning, as Maria Bartiromo continued to report on:

1. The Dems (bogus) Impeachment inquiry.

2. The latest Chinese WMD's (weapons of mass destruction) - capable of hitting the US in as little as 30 min. - which will be included in an upcoming parade, celebrating the ruling Communist Party's 70th year in power.

3. North Korea blah blah blah

Of course, none of this has anything to do with today's trade, but Fox Business isn't really a business network, as far as I can tell. Still sometimes I'm forced to watch FOX, when I become disgusted with Bloomberg/ CNBC, political propaganda. FOX is like the right echo chamber, for the fake news media, so it may seem more fair and balanced, but at the end of the day, they report the same thing as CNN, except for Dobbs, and Trish Regan, who don't come on until the evening.    


This brings me to my point: Why is FOX making bearish predictions, when the markets (typically) climb as wall of worry?

Yesterday it was more bearish coverage of the violent protests in Hong Kong. Looking at yesterday's market action, the market liked seeing order being restored. Also See: Hong Kongs leader Carrie Lam heads to Beijing 

 At this point; you're probably wondering why I continue to focus on the fake propaganda news, but I do have an important point to make.  

It seems certain traders, and money managers (mostly the ones I see on CNBC), have lost sight of what really moves markets. They actually believe Trump is to blame for a "global slowdown", and they fear the next Trump tweet. The algorithms have even been programmed to sell every Trump headline, and there are many... and scared money continues to hide in so called safe places, like global utilities. This isn't just a few knuckleheads on CNBC making their trades, based on a psychological psy-op, it's bad actors in the deep state bureaucracy, and the globalists, who have been planning to take the market down. 

My Point is, that these same bad actors have probably been heavily shorting this market, on bad intel, and that could quickly unwind. My sources tell me there is a counter-coup already underway! 

 Global Utilities - in a bubble, and overbought above the top of the channel     


Low volatility $SPX fund $SPLV looks like another bubble, and a very crowded trade.



I could show you other charts, but I'm already out of time. I only wonder if the safe trades can collapse, without the baby being thrown out with the bathwater.

Short term - bullish 

$SPX -  As far as the short term trade. The $VIX came right back down after Friday's bear trap, and this rally seems to have legs. As long as the $VIX continues to make lower lows this rally can continue. You can find this 5 min chart in my public charts area.



Opening bell rang 15 min ago, so I'm outta here.
Good luck, AA