Market Update 10/31/2019 - The Trick or Treat Trade, & The Big Reveal!

Here we go again - the financial fake news if blaming Trump for the tiny pullback we're seeing in pre-market. Can you imagine the chaos they could create, if the entire market collapses on Trumps watch? The, "I told you so's", will be coming out of the woodwork! 

Bloomberg is also reporting on the California fires, something they have ignored for several weeks. Why now? Which came first the chicken, or the egg; the negative news, or the negative futures??
Why not report on the wild fires around the globe, and Eco collapse in Australia, and South America? What about the South African swine flue epidemic sweeping Asia, crop failures, and skyrocketing food prices?     

They're also talking down oil, calling this little dip, a big roll over!? Calling BS on that! This is where I think they're setting the bear trap, for the Trick or Treat Trade.  I don't believe I've seen the market sell off on Halloween, because it's kind of a holiday; traders take their kids trick or treating, and there are a lot of Halloween parties... It's a good excuse to cover your shorts, and take the day off. 

Of topic: Yesterday, I heard someone on CNBC (I think it was? I don't pay too much attention...) trying to downplay the affect, an Elizabeth Warren win might have on markets (estimated to be -25%).... and she pointed to the Trump rally, pontificating, that if markets were wrong on Trump, then markets may be wrong on Warren. That's the most absurd pontification I've heard in a while! Capitalism, and deregulation vs Socialism? lol Granted, Warren wouldn't get one measure passed, that Wall Street isn't on board with, because Congress is bought and paid for, but still....        

Yesterday's Trade on the FOMC announcement:

I didn't think they would cut, but it's a good thing they did, or we might have seen another taper tantrum. 

$SPX continued higher after the The Fed announcement which was expected.... I had already raised the short term target, and the breakout was obvious. It looked like some retail bears tried to sell the news, but that failed miserably, and soon they were squeezed out at a new intra-day high. It was an easy trade, given the way the $VIX was driven to new recent lows. Always trust the $VIX. No $VIX strength = no fear.   

Here's what it looked like on a 1 min chart - pullback to support, rally to a higher high. 

 Psychological target of 3050. Funny I was just talking about psychological targets containing a "5", yesterday. In numerology the number 50 means grace, as a gift, or grace period, and it is...

$GOLD: We also saw a little shakeout in gold, followed by a nice rally back above support, if you were watch the $GLD chart, located in the public charts area, but that trade scares me, and it has to be watched like a hawk, and I already have too much on my plate. 

The Big Reveal:
 

I have to get to the Trick or Treat trade, so I'll do The Big Reveal tomorrow. I'm plan to publish the chart that has kept me on the right side of the trade, since the bottom near the beginning of the year, and anyone who's been following me for any length of time, knows my record.

Don't miss it, because fear is about to return in a BIG WAY, very shortly.

 Energy: This is where I expect to find the Trick or Treat Trade, and the fake news has already set the bear trap.

Of course watch $WTI crude: Not sure oil is going to lead oil producers, but it makes sense...

 $OIH - Oil producers. I really like this set up. It's a little pullback to a higher low.

You could buy this fund for $11, or trade the 3X Leveraged Fund (GUSH), depending on your risk tolerance.
Usually I use a pink line for support, but you'll see it in purple. Could see a little shakeout, before the breakout, but I haven't checked futures. 

$GUSH - not sure if this rally will continue for more than a day, but I see a possible breakout pattern, and we could see short covering in the energy sector continue into Thanksgiving.

$XOM - I suggest you watch this one. Remember when I hated it, back when CNBC was pushing it? Well, now I'm lovin' it!

 The only other bullish trade I see is in $AMD, and if you're short Semi's you could hedge yourself with some of that, so getcha-some-a-dat!

Dammit Stockcharts site just crashed, and I'm outta time.

Maybe I'll add that $AMD chart to the Public Charts area, and I'll alert to that...

I'll also be added the $OIH....

Good luck,
AA


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Market Update 10/30/2019 - $SPX 3500 The Hard Way

I know what you're thinking; "he's turned bullish. This is great!" No, not quite, but there is a way to get to 3500 - the hard way.

$SPX 3500 target - 20 yr chart - I've already added this chart to the Public Charts area - second to last chart. I had to dig deep on this one. The chart is self explanatory, but I've added a few annotations, as well as some critical (future) support levels. Targets tend to overshoot, and $SPX 3500 is a good psychological target - anything with a "5" in it. 2500, 29,999.95 (hint hint),

  

I don't like the idea of retesting the high 2 more times, in the the next 4 years, or even trading the moves within the upturned ending diagonal triangle (in wave 5 of a powerful wave 3), but I suppose it's better than seeing the market collapse next year, which was my previous long term outlook.    

Speaking of bullishness: If you happened to see the Fast Money Halftime Show yesterday? They had some perma-bull on, who was just making outrages predictions... It was just funny as hell to see experienced traders like Dr. J. Najarian, and Joey Terranova, sit there and listen with straight faces ....Poker faces, I'd say. Aayhow...

Short term - trend remains up, after hitting the top of the range yesterday.

$SPX - I like this 15 min chart better than the one in the public charts area, so I'm going to swap out the one that's in there. What looks like a contracting triangle on the other view, looks more like a parallel channel on this one - seen in blue of course. If the trend continues, the next breakout point would be above the black line, and then the 3050 level becomes support, or the stop-hunt. I'm not going to make a prediction going into the Fed, but usually you'll see the $VIX sell off, when uncertainty is removed. IF however, we see the $VIX breakout above the 14.50 level, that would be enough to trigger the risk off trade. Yesterday we saw the $VIX hammed at the 13.50 level, and I'll continue to provide $VIX alerts on the #1 chart.  

I still haven't found the time to finalize the new Legend, for the Public Charts Area. Maybe today... as this market seems to be waiting for Chairman Powell to do another helicopter drop.

Re: The Public Charts Area 

Chart rotation - the switching up of the charts in the Public Charts Area:

1. When a chart is no longer working, or I find I have a better one, I'll replace the chart. See the 15 min chart above.

2. When the short term chart breaks, we'll go to a longer term chart view (30 - 60 - DCS). I usually try to put an alert in the annotations, before removing a chart, so refresh the #1 chart on page 1 often, when volatility is high. This - #1 chart - is where you'll find my real time notifications, until, and unless, I get my Twitter account working again. Twitter customer support is non-existent, so don't hold your breath....

Don't rely on down arrows, or my annotations, for buy/ sell signals:

You're better off studying my chart, and knowing where key support, and res. levels are, and trading them accordingly, than waiting for some kind of alert from me. I don't have time for that, and it's up to you to learn how to trade technical levels. For Instance: I can point to a perfect Fib retracement, and put a down arrow on it, but it's up to you to cover your short, or even go long, when that indicator fails. That just happened last week, on the $GBP chart, and once it broke out past the FIB replacement, it was seen pressing the next level of resistance.

$GBP - Since I just mentioned it, and used it as an example - here's an update on the British Pound - still waiting for that pullback to the 200 day ma. This is what typically happens after a big move. Also see gold trading flat, after a big move, just as I predicted... months ago? Don't be a bad holder, go trade something else.

That brings me to my 3rd point:

3. The Public Charts are switched up according to what's moving. For Example, if the market is trading flat, but biotech, or Oil, or something else is moving, I'll add the chart, and we'll trade that. Why waste your summer waiting for the $RUT to move 15 handles?

$RUT: Speaking of the $RUT it continues to snap-back from an extremely (st) over-sold condition, which I alerted to in the public charts area last month... But for some unknown reason, my RUT chart, stopped updating, and I had to take the chart down. I don't like the $RUT anyhow. I don't trade it. I don't trade a lot of things, I cover - for example FOREX. Maybe some day....

$RUT - Are stocks really trading at all time highs, or getting ready to crash again? This doesn't look like a continuing bull market to me. More like BS. Trade what you see, not what you hear on TV.

Update Canada: I don't trade this either, but I mentioned it last week, and it's since traded in to a sideways pattern. What's wrong with this directionless zombie market?

$GRUB - I'm running out of time, and promised to show you where Gruphub, broke technical support.  This is typically what happens when the bullish trend breaks.
Thank goodness I didn't buying into the apparent down-turned triangle, but I seldom trade individual stocks. I kind of like this one around the 31.50 level. Might be a good stocking=stuffer, if you're willing to wait for a snap-back rally in the spring. It's going to take weeks, months, for options to turn, positive again imho

I missed the opening bell, 5 minutes ago, putting the final touches on this one, so I gotta run!

GL, AA

Bloomberg Admits Only 5 Stocks Lifted The $SPX

My plan was to come in and take another look at the little triangle pattern we've traded into, and try to decide what this EW (Elliott Wave Pattern) is, but then Bloomberg came out and reported the truth for a change, even if it was 4 AM...  - so most investors missed it -  ,and now the financial fake news can go back to reporting that, "Stocks Hit All Time Highs". Just proves that markets are being manipulated, as I touched on again, in yesterday's blog -
"Pump And Dump" Markets
After doing a little research this morning, I tracked down this article from Market Watch -

These S&P 500 stocks just hit record highs

Wow 15 out of 500 stocks made new highs! (sarcastic)

So, the information is out there, for anyone who cares to look past the hype, but the average investor doesn't have a clue.... It's like the average person, who hears the "Trump Impeachment", story every day, and takes that at face value. These poor fools probably also believe that Islamic Terrorist, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a "Religious Scholar", who died of natural causes.... See:  Washington Post Mourns Passing of “Austere Religious Scholar” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi… - theconservativetreehouse.com

 

Stocks Hit New All Time Highs: 

$ALLE - This one continues to fly under the radar, but once CNBC starts hyping it, that should be the kiss of death for Allegion.

$LCRX - continued to break out, trading into the top of a much larger parallel channel 

$APPL - took out my short term target 

 $KLAK - I've been following this one for a while. This is what capitulation looks like, so I sold $SOX, and I'll add to that short, if the market continues to be irrational. They say, the market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay liquid, but the people who say that, are just blowing smoke.... 

If you want to short $SOX with me, then make a donation to the website, and I'll send you updates....

$JPM - also looks toppy here, but maybe it can test the 132 level? This counts like a double zig-zag pattern, so I'm expecting a big reversal, shortly - within a week from today.  

$GOOG - I briefly mentioned google in yesterday's update - including it among the pump and dump stocks... See what happens every time it takes out the previous high.  

Biotech eventually broke out, but not sure that continues.

I altered to the reversal in Oil yesterday, and added the chart.

Gold and gold miners just seem to be holding up in a range.

I'm probably covering too many sectors, and I may have to remove some charts from the public charts area.

Opening bell range 2 minutes ago.

Later,

AA 





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"Pump And Dump" Markets

"Pump and dump" (P&D) is a form of securities fraud that involves artificially inflating the price of an owned stock through false and misleading positive statements, in order to sell the cheaply purchased stock at a higher price.Wikipedia 

Looking back at last week:

The charts looks even worse after Friday's little rally. I suggested Traders' take the day off after such a tremendous trading week, and I attribute Fridays rally to another, "Short Squeeze Friday", and looking for a good entry point to get short this market. Looks pretty rich right here, ahead of the next FOMC hearing, during which I give the chance that the TheFed will lower the short term lending rate, a snowball's chance in hell.

Perma-bull Charles Payne - reported on Friday, that stocks are trading at all time highs. This idiot  has a book to sell, "Unstoppable Prosperity", so consider the source. New high on the $SPX don't mean much when it's a hopelessly rigged index, which just happens to contain FAANG stocks, which are some of the most heavily weighted to the $SPX, and now you know why the acronym "FAANG", was created. These stocks were hand picked, because the Powers That (shouldn't) Be, knew it would lift the entire market. Total scam, perpetrated by certain people in the financial fake news, and the usual suspects, who have been seen colluding, and pushing the TheFed's false recovery narrative since the crash of '08. Look, the banks were bailed out with tax payer money, mark to market done away with, and shorting of financial stocks banned, so there was never anything normal about this so called "recovery".  It was just a means to manipulated the market, back to "getting back to even", levels, and that's where you see most stocks trading. For instance: Take a look at home builders, testing the '07 high.

This morning                        

Heavily ($SPX) weighted Microsoft is up on news, that government insiders have probably been trading off, for who knows how long?  Anyhow, that's also helping to lift futures.

The trend is sideways to higher in a narrow range - Maybe it can hit $145?  Maybe it can overshoot?

Pumped and dumped Google, Micron, IBM - I wanted to cover these 3, but I've run out of time.

Others continue to be pumped. AAPL MSFT The rigged $SPX  $VIX hammered - covered most of this.

 Mutual fund Monday: Seeing some dumb money put to work this morning. Typical. This is where you see the smart money sell, and my indicators are flashing red here. I can't reveal where I'm seeing these indicators, or what they are, for free, but make a $100 donatoin to the website, and I'll be happy to....



Good Luck this week,
AA    

Market Update 10/25/2019 - Conflicting Chart Patterns, Lousy Amazon Earnings, & Brexit

I made serious mistake in yesterday's blog, when we were comparing the upturned triangle pattern on the Dow, to the one we saw (fail) in 2008. I've since replaced the chart, if you want to go back and check it out.

The short term pattern on $SPX also shows an eerily familiar looking upturned Triangle, and even more-so after yesterday's action.

$SPX - See the upturned triangle pattern  - in blue. 2. Resistance at my red line (futures are pointing at that level as I type). 3 Sideways consolidation - between 3012 - 3000.  

Keep in mind, that's a 1 min chart, and compare that to the 2 year DOW chart I replaced in yesterday's blog!

Yesterday's Trade: 

 $SPX -  We saw big pop at the open, taking out all resistance, except for the same (stop hunt) line, which was sold a day earlier. You'd have to look at this more complicated chart to see it, and there's the case for having more than 1 chart to rely on. I've got like 20 short term views of the $SPX, maybe more.  Support at the lower end of the range on this chart is 2997 - if the $VIX breaks above 14 again, and the 3000 level breaks.

 So trading was pretty easy, in the morning, and the $VIX 14 pivot worked like a charm. I imagine if you had buy and sell orders prepared, you could've used $VIX 14, to swing trade it all day.

Today's Trade: 

I suspect we're going to remain trapped in a range, on this weekly OPEX Friday. Probably hold the 3000 level this time. Why else would the $VIX be hammered down to new recent lows? 


Alternate Trade:

$TSX Canada: For a short term trade, maybe you can find a Canada ETF, or even a leveraged one?
 Looks like a continuing bearish consolidation pattern, but could be a nice trade back to the 16600 level.

Getting back to the larger triangle patterns. 

 $SOXX - I don't rely on long term ETF charts, because they aren't as accurate as an index, but others do, so.... Here you see the $SOXX trading above the upper channel, and the spring is wound tight (in the apex of a triangle pattern. If this was the beginning of a cycle, I could see that being a continuation pattern, but not 11 years into a bull market, with the $VIX trading at dangerously low levels.

 Sure it could breakout, but even if it does, we could see a sharp reversal, and when the price action falls out of the bottom of this type of pattern, all hell will break loose. Also note the declining volume. This isn't the smart money buying up here!

 I've plenty more scary charts I could reveal.

SPLV - The "low volatility" $SPX  - How about this one? Does this look like an upturned triangle pattern you want to buy into? LOL The bulls are as delusional as the Democratic socialists.

 Speaking of the Dimms. Yesterday Bloomberg reported on the "impeachment hearings". Thing is there are no impeachment hearings, only a fake impeachment inquiry, designed to pacify those who want to  ‘Impeach the motherf#@*%r’ MarketWatch

I usually start off with a political rant, but whether you believe in the false impeachment narrative, or the bull market narrative, and 0% interest bailout infinity, it all ties together, and Old White Men Like Me Need to Shut Up and Step Aside

Back to Today's Trade:

$GBP finds support at my thin blue line, so I wouldn't be waiting around for it break any time soon.  Could test the 200 day ma @ 1.272, but Brexit "uncertainty" is good for now. 

 Here's another view of same DCS chart. It's back-testing the breakout point. Abigail Doolittle - calls herself, "the chartress, - on Bloomberg, calls this chart, "long term very bullish". That's funny, because it's clearly trending down, has been in a bear market for over 10 years! Maybe the fact that she has a very British sounding name, has something to do with here bias?  
 

 $GBP - 12 yr. Monthy view - "long term bullish"? Thank God I didn't go to college! 

 

 Earnings: 

Twitter destroyed as I predicted in August. Maybe they should rethink their idea that discriminating against conservatives, and silencing people, in the name of Political correctness, is their way to prosperity? Just a thought.
 
$TWTR - Congratulations Short Sellers!  

Amazon disappoints. Breaks support.
Try the 1585 level, if you like chasing over-bought Tech stocks.

Texas Instruments destroyed, after trading into a broadening top pattern. One of my favorites!

 Of course this morning you see the bulls turning to Intel to save their precious Semiconductor rally .

$INTC Intel  - You gotta be kidding me!

 Sorry, I don't have an Ambev chart, or the time to create one 

Have a great weekend,
AA

Market Update 10/24/2018 - The Similarities Between Today's Bullish Chart Pattern, And The One We Saw In 2008

I spent most the morning updating charts, and I'm not sure where to start. There's a lot going on and I'm covering several sectors - Gold, Oil, Energy, Tech, and Biotech. Not sure I have time to get to it all, but maybe this will extend into a Part 2. 

Yesterday's Trade could not have gone better, and the auto-refresh feature on the public charts actually worked for a change! That's a good thing, because I was catching up on some lost sleep, during the pullback, and sawing logs during the breakout (back above the 3000 level.

$SPX - Pulled back into my little purple range (consolidation), and bounced out of the hole after retesting support. If you're watching the 1 min. chart - located in the public charts area - then you got to see it play out in real time.

$SPX - alternate 1 min chart view - If this rally continues, the next resistance levels are 3006.70, 3009.95 shown on the updated chart in the public charts area, but I also want to point out this little range (seen in purple). No doubt that was sold, because it looks like the top of the range in a little suckers rally. Futures are pointed up, but only slightly, so be alert on this Elevated $VIX - still sitting above the 14 level. I'm also seeing red flags in the energy sector, as I'll explain below.     

  $SPX - Looking at the 15 min chart. I'm seeing an upturned triangle pattern, and if that manages to complete, I'll be really bearish, and I'm not even sure this is an upturned triangle. It resemble an upturned triangle, but so did the DOW in 2008

$SPX 2008 - Here's why I don't trust the old upturned triangle on today's market. Here's what happened when that pattern broke in the crash of 2008. It was historic!

$DOW - 2019

Comparing the apparent bullish contracting triangle pattern of 2008, to the one on today's short term, and 1 year chart. Note: this triangle is only contracting slightly, but it is indeed a triangle pattern.  

I could easilly spend another 3 hours covering Gold, Miners, Oil, Energy, and Biotech, but I only got 10 mins.

Gold: I alerted to a reversal on Gold, and yesterday we saw it, but we didn't much movement.

Miners - I've organized the miner charts, but putting them in order. See the warnings there.


Platinum - we saw Platinum Rally, but that looks like it could quickly come to an end

Energy: Sell this DCB (dead cat bounce)

Sell Oil - based on the resistance on the 3X Oil Bull, and where futures are trading.

I don't see a trade in Biotch, but the short sellers continue to be squeezed out of certain names.

I'll get more into the continuing short squeezes in the next update

Later, AA

Market Update 10/23/2019 - Uncanny Accuracy

 If you were watching the 1 min chart, like a hawk, as I was... The market just seemed to go exactly where I expected, throughout day. 

 Of course, it wasn't until I took a late lunch, that the market decided to roll over, but what really blew my mind was that, when I returned to my desk, the $SPX had traded precisely into a bearish channel, I had already placed on the chart. I mean usually you need to adjust a hypothetical channel, once you get a reversal, but it was perfectly placed! Uncanny!      

Reviewing yesterday's action: 

1. I was already expecting the market to sell-off at the open, and it was immediately sold - into strength - right out of the gate, so that much was easy. Put a down arrow on it and have breakfast. By the opening bell, I had already been working for 4 hrs. 

2. An hour or 2 later, the market had filled the gap (up). That's called a "gap fade".   

3. Market found support, and broke higher.  Obvious "break out".

4. As the market rallied higher, it became clear to me that that bulls were following a lower channel line (seen in blue), and once that trend broke, I put an (upturned) red line on it.

$SPX - See that reversal, as it retested the bottom of the the ridiculous looking bullish channel (blue/red).

5. It kind of stalled out there in the middle of the range (see in purple), and I took a late lunch.   

6. By the time I returned it has already broke my stop-hunt, and traded into the bearish channel.  

$SPX - See the stop-hunt. 2. The bearish channel... 3. Bearish backtest. 4. 3000 level breaks.

Of course the catalyst for this reversal, was Boris Johnson's statement in which he used a dirty word, on Wall Street, "uncertainty". Some will say it was the failed second vote, but no doubt quant trading programs sell any news feed containing that word. We also see the $GBP reverse btw.

The British Pound

$GBP - We've seen a huge short-squeeze in the British Pound, and now it looks like there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding Brexit again. Looks like they want to kick the can down the road, another 3 months! I think, I would short the hell out of it right here!

Getting back to US markets.

Check out the longer term views in the Public Charts area, and you'll see where resistance was sold, but is this the top? Probably not. You really want to see the short-sellers capitulate, before you see a major reversal, and yesterday was too easy.

 $SPX - new 15 min chart - 2993 support - in what still looks like a topping pattern

I was up early, but I'm already running out of time, as something I started to write here is going to end up in the book, if I ever can find the time to finish it.


McDonald's held Support, of course. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone on wall street, who has a sell rating on that one. But I want you to take a look at a secondary the lower channel line on the chart. The parallel thin blue line. That's worth noting.   

Opening bell rings in 3 min. so I gotta run.
 AA 

Market Update 10/22/2019 - Earnings Season & Market Complacentcy

Market futures are struggling at my red line, and the $GBP is struggling, at resistance, so I'll remain bearish, thank you!  The market is focused on earnings season, but this seems utterly complacent. The PTB were seen hammering the $VIX down at the 14.50 level, yesterday and as long as it doesn't breakout above 15 again, the complacency can continue. I do have a lower $VIX target, but I think it would take some very good news to see that hit. Maybe on a Brexit deal? I'll alert to $VIX breakouts on the 1 min. chart, and if that breaks, we'll move to the 15 min chart. 

$SPX - 1 min chart

 If you look at the longer term charts, you'll see the market is just treading water.

The $BKX - DCS chart. Saw a - one day - breakout above the top of my down-turned channel, on my long term chart - located in the public charts area. Not sure if that's a breakout, or a fake-out, but that becomes the stop-hunt, and sell it with both hands if/when it breaks. 
 
There's quite a bit of resistance here at the 103.50 level, trading at the top of the range (seen in purple). 

$BANK - This index is far from breaking out, so I think $JPM is driving the $BKX, and I don't trust $JPM for obvious reasons. See: Banksters Finally Hit with Racketeering Charges– Better Late Than Never!

 $RIFIN - financials look like it wants to break out, but it's not official 

$USB - US (zombie) Bank is one to watch - trading at a lower high.

Earnings - 

I track 100's of stocks to lets look at some of those... who just reported.

McDonald's - bullish trend remains intact. It's testing key support on disappointing earnings.

$CMG Chipoltle - Not sure when they report, but all it's going to take is another salmonella outbreak to take this one down again. False breakout in a head-fake wave "D". I like it at $150.

$LMT - looks like the Military Industrial Complex is still in charge, but not for long. Or could it be that the socialist are going to fund Universal Healthcare, instead of the Military? I'd much prefer to see the Beast system destroyed, in his coming. Let the reader understand. 

 One more thing:

Gold Miners could get a nice bounce here, but don't fall in love with the upside! 

AA

Market Update 10/21/2019 - Broadening Top Patterns & Contrarian Indicators

I was going to blog on on Dennis Gartman - our favorite contrarian indicator - but then I started charting, and found all these broadening top patterns, and expanding triangle patterns, so I thought I'd tie it all in together.  

You often see the unexpected, on Options Expiration, and Friday was no exception.  Looks like everybody lost. The Bulls couldn't hold onto the $SPX 3000 level, and the bears who no doubt bought the 3000 calls in order to hedge their short bets - also didn't get paid....

The market rolled over about the time Dennis Gartman came on Fox Business, and started talking about how he wasn't going to take profits, because he believes we're still in a bull market, because the price action is moving from the, "lower left hand of the chart, to the upper right....", when in actuality, the market has been trading sideways for months.   

The pattern we were watching on the 15 min. chart has changed from an upturned triangle, to what looks like a broadening top pattern, on a 1 min. chart.

 $SPX - st target remains 3015, but it could fall short in a weak market, or overshoot... in a short squeeze. Triangles are funny; the targets are hard to pin down, as stocks continue to whip-saw on higher volatility. I would actually call this a wave B triangle, because I think this is where we are in the wave count, but you can also see this type of triangle in an extended wave 5, as I'll show you on the bowing chart below.

$BA - Boeing finally rolls over, and you see 2 different types of triangles on the chart. 1. The broadening top in an extended wave 5 (a major topping pattern). 2. The smaller expanding triangle pattern (seen in purple), which I believe is a bearish wave A triangle. 

That fact that Boeing build a defective aircraft, and then lied to investors, to try to cover it up. Is this Trump's fault?  

I think Boeing will get a bounce here, so I wouldn't pile on, if you already missed the boat on Friday. Still I think it's going to $300, just in time for the holidays. 

My next favorite contrarian indicator is Jim Cramer!

Last week, I was watching Fast Money, and was too lazy to get up and change the channel, and so I caught a little Mad Money, and I was stunned by the snake-oil he was peddling. Not As Bad As Feared (NABAF). 1 It doesn't have a nice ring to it. 2. It sounds like a contrarian view. a. Things are bad. 2. The bulls are fearful. 3. Stocks can go up on earnings anyhow. Doesn't sound bullish to be at all!

$HON - Cramer liked Honeywell earnings, and says "it's going higher"!

Fast Money can also be a good contrarian indicator, but not everybody.... I even learn something once in a while, like on Fridays show when they were talking about how heavily weighted healthcare stocks are, in the $SPX. As it turned out, it's the #2 most heavily weighted sector....  I haven't looked at Healthcare in a while, but I plan to.

One stock I don't think they're right on is Caterpillar. If It's no longer trending up, I don't care about it's valuation.

$CAT - here you see 2 triangle patterns, and down-turned channel or wedge.

$MSFT - Microsoft reports this week, and they like that one, because it continues to work. I've wrong on Microsoft before, and still don't like it, for obvious reasons. Watch the 50 day ma. This kind of growth, is not sustainable. The bulls are delusional

That's all the time I got.
See you in the public charts area,
AA