Market Update Part 2 - Monday 2/28/22 - The Last Trading Day of the Month

1. Always watch the calendar - and especially when you see heavy selling, every Monday - like clockwork - as we've seen over the past few months. The. "why.... ", and the "who" is selling, is explained in part 1 of this update, and the short version of that story is that government insiders continue to sell the Russia news, just a they did the covid news, for nearly 3 months now. 

2. The second reason, to watch the calendar, is that new money will be put to work at the end of this quarter, which starts tomorrow. I suppose we could see a little more weakness, ahead of Monday, March 7th, the first big trading day of the month, but as long as the $VIX remains contained, no worries.  

Oil snaps back as predicted 

I still think #Oil needs to snap back next week. pic.twitter.com/C7aUD1XbUp

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) February 25, 2022

This is great! Planning to sell the rip, and be careful buying the dips. 

Gold testing the $1900 level again. Be sure to see the Dow, priced in gold, chart I posed on Friday! Looks like the rigged Gold market is going down!   

Natural Gas also snapping back

Bloomberg is reporting that Oil is soaring as the Russian nuclear arsenal is placed on high alert. This false narrative is no doubt, just more fear porn, designed to try to confuse investors. Oil may retest the recent high, but it looks weak to me.    

Broader Market saved from disaster 

My short term (bullish), and long term (bearish) outlook hasn't changed, but I did notice something disturbing, on several long term chart views! 

The long term charts nearly broke, but the charts were quickly repaired. 

You can see this on the Dow chart I included in the weekly wrap-up. See the red line... 

The $TRAN which leads the DOW is back above the upper pattern line.... 

$COMPQ - NASDAQ - bounced off the top of the my upper channel line. That pink line is the stop-hunt, so this is what I would call a close call.  

$SPX - same thing as above. The stop hunt - seen in Pink - was bought. 

If these long term stops are taken out, and the $VIX starts running, make no mistake about it, all hell will break loose, but I think the powers that be want to spend more time building short positions, before trashing the market, like they did in '07 - '08. 

For now the market is going to remain trapped in the top of this range. 

Take Care, AA 

1. Here's a link to my weekly wrap-up in case you missed it over the weekend. 

2. I started writing the following Market Update, over the weekend, but now it's turned in to a lengthy political rant, and I find myself still struggling to complete it, on this Monday Morning. If the, who, what, and why, of the market sell off, has no interest to you, then skip to Market Update Part 2 - Monday 2/28/22 - The Last Trading Day of the Month.  

Market Update for Monday 2/28/22 - Last trading day of the month - Part 1 

In hindsight, this looks like liquidation, probably by government insiders, such as Warren Buffet, and Nancy Pelosi, and the rest of the crooks who pose as our constitutionally elected government. After all, these are the same people who sold - calls - ahead of the announcement of the so called "Covid crisis".

Lawmakers made hundreds of stock transactions during pandemic, watchdog finds politico 

 While the US citizenry were being kept in the dark - on Covid - Israel, and NATO were being alerted to the situation in "China"; just to give you some idea of how corrupt the system is.   

US alerted Israel, & NATO, to the (Covid) outbreak in China in November 2019 timesofisrael

Of course, in hindsight, government insiders were selling ahead of the official announcement - of Covid - and only then did we see the market taken down - on a Monday morning. Just as we've seen over the past few months, ahead of the "Russian Invasion" story. 

If you watch the national propaganda news networks as much as I do, it's literally enough to cause you to lose sleep, and affect your mood. For others the constant fear porn, is enough to push them over the edge, driving the mental illness pandemic, and with it the suicide rate. 

While the lame stream media has done their best to try to dismiss the rise in teen suicide, and to deflect blame, from those inside the heavily politicized teachers union, and even the CDC, the chickens have finally come home to roost:

Surge of Student Suicides Pushes Las Vegas Schools to Reopen

Firmly linking teen suicides to school closings is difficult, but rising mental health emergencies and suicide rates point to the toll the pandemic lockdown is taking 

nytimes 2021

Ridiculous as most the content of the above article is - because as usual, a good part of it is used to try to push a radical leftist political agenda - at least they get the headline right! 

The cure (the lockdowns), as it turns out, was far worse than the disease. The truth is, there is absolutely no proof that the lock-downs, or mask mandates, saved even 1 life, yet the madness continues. They lie about everything, and then they question why so many of us don't trust the experimental vaccines? 

And who benefited the most, from the pandemic? Spoiled rotten billionaires on Wall Street, who were quietly sold ahead of the news, and these are no doubt the same folks who are throwing taper tantrums, in the form of weekly - Monday - sell orders today, while using anti-Russian propaganda as an excuse... but make no mistake about it, it's the fed tapering... and the lack of leadership, that's really upsetting markets. 

And to add insult to injury:

 From Fox news to CNN it's 24/7 coverage of Russia, is designed to distract from the ongoing "invasion" taking place at our southern boarder, among other things: 

 

‘Betraying the American people’: Leaked video reveals Joe Biden’s ‘hush hush’ migrant invasion nypost

 Who will represent the forgotten man? Well it sure as hell isn't going to be Lindsay Graham, or anyone else in the republic party. Every one of those GOP, RINO, NeoCons, are traitors to their oath, and their country, and after watching the slippery slide of corruption in our government over the past 40+ years, I'm 100% convinced we will never get out country back.

 RIP America, but I digress... 

 Market Update Part 2 - Monday 2/28/22 - The Last Trading Day of the Month 

  

Weekly Wrap-up - 2/26/21 - The Short Squeeze Continues into Friday's Close

 I see a lot of traders on twitter shocked by last weeks rally, but this looks like the typical short squeeze in a bear market - just like the ones we saw during the 2007. This is especially true of "short squeeze Friday", which became a regular occurrence during that time. We saw several +1000 point rallies on the Dow, and this was back when a 1000 point rally on the DOW really meant something. Whereas today, 1000 point rally on the dow, is only around 3%...  to help put things in perspective.  

What would typically happen during the crash of '07 - "08, is we would see a 1000 point rally caused mostly by retail short covering, followed by a 3000 point crash. I'm much better prepared to trade that kind of market today, than I was back then, but it's still not going to be easy, by any stretch of the imagination, and for those who don't recognize a short squeeze when you see one, impossible.   

Let's look at some charts 

$INDU - the Dow - has only rallied back to resistance. I would add this chart to the public charts area, but I really have better things to do than try to keep 100's of charts up-to-date. 

To give you some idea of how I manage to correctly time markets constantly, I balance like 20 - 30 different charts, in each sector. That adds up to 100's of charts I watch on any given day. Hey, if this were easy everyone would do it!  

Dow chart #2. If the Dow continues to break out, the next level of resistance is our old friend 35.1 

Dow Chart #3 - shows the sideways - broadening triangle - pattern still intact, after last weeks little shakeout. That's the thing about these sideways expanding triangle patterns. They often overshoot the boundaries of the pattern.  Looks like the 200 day ma could easily be tested, and the same could be said for the $SPX. 

I even have a Dow chart priced in gold. This is an interesting view given the action that we just witnessed! 

I should mention that, I did switch out the broken 15 minute $SPX chart - in the public charts area - for a 30 minute chart, but a short term chart like this will only get you so far.  

I moved this 30 min $SPX chart to the public charts area... #StockCharts pic.twitter.com/35vlN5tctM

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) February 25, 2022

If it were easy to time the market, and provide daily, or weekly updates, as well as up to the minute updates, in a trading room environment, I would do it, and charge $400 a head (monthly), but it's just too much for one person. 

I didn't have time to update the st $VIX chart on Friday, but I did that on Twitter 

Not sure I can trust a 10 minute $VIX chart on a Friday, after what we normally see on Monday (more selling)? pic.twitter.com/29I51V96Fe

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) February 25, 2022

We saw the $VIX target taken out, so I'd be a little cautious here, and I've already reduced my risk. I don't trust the News, the administration, or the charts - much - at this point, so it was a good time to take some profits. 

As I said on Friday, the charts have changed, and the short term trend is bearish.  

$NASDAQ - trend is down 

The #NASDAQ ran a little further than I expected, but could even go higher, next week. #Stocks #Bearish pic.twitter.com/wsIgMra86r

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) February 25, 2022

Another thing I mentioned on Twitter is that France is on death-watch, and given their history when it comes to world war II, you gotta wonder if history is going to repeat itself, and I believe if not for the ponzi global financial system, France would be trading like Spain. 

I perhaps sound too bearish in this update, but you're better off catching a short covering rally, than having your face ripped off by one. 

I think there's a good possibility that we'll see another shakeout, ahead of 1st quarter window dressing season, but I'm really not any more bearish than I was a month ago.  

Take care next week, 

AA 

 

Market Update Feb. 25th, 2022 - Yesterday's Whipsaw Action in Commodities and Equities Explained

Reviewing yesterday's massive reversal in Oil, Gold, and Equities 

 I love it when the lame stream media points to a massive intra-day reversal - like the one we saw yesterday - and is left speechless. That dumb look on their faces is priceless! Surely, if they understood what was happening in Ukraine, or if they decided to turn over a new leaf, and be totally honest about it - for a change - they could come up with an interesting story, that people would wait on the edge of their seats for, but sadly the folks who's job it is, to read teleprompters all day, aren't the sharpest tools in the shed, and it's no wonder most retail traders - who rely on accurate reporting - are left scratching their heads. 

Firstly, the MSM (main stream media) continually tries to demonize Russia, while trying to protect the democrats, and that political bias stands in the way of honest and accurate analysis. 

All day every day they reported the same damn thing: That a "Full Scale Russian Invasion", was under way. 2, and that President Biden was going to address the nation at 12:30 noon EST, which ended up being postponed an hour, maybe because it conflicted with Crazy Uncle Joe's, nappie-time?  

 Anyhow, all this MSM driven media hysteria triggered algorithmic trading programs, and traders alike, to price in every kind of Russian sanction imaginable. 1. Oil 2. Gold. 3. Aluminum. After all, Oil sanctions were supposed to be imposed only if Russia launched a "full scale invasion", and now you know why this was reported no less than 100 times by CNN.    

Well, as it turned out Russian sanctions did not include any of the above, and the market reacted, with a sharp reversal, and what I can only describe as an explosive short covering rally. Of course the millennial behind the screens, who feed the teleprompters all day, don't recognize it as short covering, so they call it "dip buying".

Oil  

In hindsight it totally makes sense that if Oil is up because of sanctions, against several oil producing countries, than if we're going to sanction Russia, then Oil is going to continue higher, but the bulls also had this psychological target of $100, which was dumped like a hot potato. No surprise, since that target has been broadcast 1000 times by the financial lame stream media, over the past month. Now the MSM acts surprised, when they see that target sold? This is a new level of stupid.  

Another thing the The MSM continues to ignore the fact that Iranian Oil is coming back on line. 

"And that's the rest of the story", quoting Paul Harvey 

To the Charts 

We saw the $VIX jacked above 35 at yesterdy's open, just as I had predicted, but that was swiftly hammered back down. It was at that point I started updating the charts, and calling out bullish trades all over the place, including Russia. 

$RSX - see Russian sanctions priced in for nearly 3 months. See the green arrow I finally added at yesterday's open. This morning the candle doesn't look as much like a "doji reversal", as it did when I annotated the chart, but it was a good call nonetheless. It opened at the lows of the day, and closed at 15.39, so do the math.... it was a way bigger snap-back rally than we saw on the NASDAQ. 

Will the MSM report on Russian stocks rallying, or the bottom in the rubel? Hell no! 

I told you which levels to watch on the $DAX, yesterday, so you should know it's back above support. 

The chart patterns have changed somewhat   

We've been trading in a sideways range, for nearly a year, but yesterday's selling broke some of the charts. Is it relevant, or just another attempt to shake out all but the most sophisticated of technical traders? I can't say for sure, but I deleted many broken charts yesterday. 

 $NYSE - because the crooks on Wall Street like to manipulate the $SPX more than any other index, I chart most every other major index. The New York Stocks Exchange ended in the red, unlike the heavily manipulated $SPX, by the way. 

$SPLV - The Low volatility $SPX also ended in the red. 

Most the longer term charts look fine - not broken  

$WLSH Wilshire 5000 - gave back all the gains of the past year, so I'm glad I stuck to my guns, and remains bearish all through most of 2021, in the face of all of CNBC's false reporting. I win! 

Judging by yesterday's action, I think there's a good chance we're going to see tech continue to lead, but I can't say we're out of the woods yet. 

For now $VIX 35 is resistance on the fear gauge. We could see a couple sectors retest the lows. Volatility is still super high, but as long as the $VIX doesn't breakout to new recent highs, then I think the worst is behind us. 

I covered my energy shorts, basically because I can't sit in a leveraged ETF that isn't performing, day after day. I did add to my Oil short, and looking to get short Nat Gas, or even gold miners, if they go higher. I think Russia is going to pull out of Ukraine, as fast as they went in, once they prove their point - that they aren't going to allow weapons of mass destruction to be placed on the porch of their house. 

A couple more charts 

$SOX - technically trend remains lower despite yesterday's little breakout... 

$XLC - Tech will probably lead the market higher as usual, as it did yesterday.  

Oil can snap back today, after yesterday's beating  

Take Care, and good luck next week. 

Market Update 2/24/22 - Sell the rumor, becomes buy the news

Perhaps we'll see cooler heads prevail (next week); now that "sell the rumor", becomes "buy the news". My point being, once the bad news is out, there's no longer any reason to sell, and I say next week, because I expect the weakness to continue into tomorrow (weekly OPEX), because every options expiration date is prime time for manipulation. I also figure it could take at least 1 day to build a base, and paint a doji reversal candle on the chart.  

Full Scale Russian Invasion? No

Something the lame stream media fails to mention is that the Russians have started what they are calling a "special military operation", in order to remove the west's chemical weapons build up, on the Ukrainian boarder. 

Meanwhile, Joe Biden, and his bought and paid for, lying, "progressive", western, media, and the NeoCons, as well, all go out of their way to report this an, "unprovoked attack", when in reality, it was entirely provoked. 

This all could've been entirely avoided if only we had learned the historical lessons of the Cuban missile Crisis, when Russia attempted to put weapons on our boarder, which resulted in a military standoff, one like the world had never seen before. Now history repeats itself. 

Hopefully, if any good is to come out of it, the idiots in charge will learn not to provoke the Bear, or the dragon, with such blatant disregard, in the future.    

Ukraine Rebels, Russia Claim Imminent Chemical 'Disaster' As U.S. Urges Calm newsweek 

Going to the charts

Yesterday, I showed you how Russian stocks were targeted, by the taking out of the 200 day moving average on the Russian ETF, and we're no doubt seeing the proverbial baby, being thrown out, with the bathwater.   At the end of the day investors need to ask themselves, what the take down of the Russian economy, has to do with the number of Netflix subscribers? 

$NFLX  

$VIX Looking at the $VIX chart which is located in the public charts area. Looks like it could be jacked above (35) resistance - at the open. This is to cause the bulls to capitulate. Back up the truck... 

We have to go to long term charts this morning in order to find major support. 

$DAX - Germany is the thing to watch, since US markets are totally rigged, thanks to 30 years of fed intervention.  Looks like the 14k level is being tested in pre-market. You'd actually want that level taken out, in order to shakeout the weak hands, so things could be a lot worse. 

The selling in US markets has been very orderly, and like I said yesterday, nothing has changed. 

The Dow isn't even down 1000 points, so things aren't so terrible, and the broadening pattern, remains intact. Even 1100 points lower, this looks very bullish. 

  

Nothing we haven't seen before

$INDU year 2000 

$NYSE  The NYSE continues to trade in a broadening megaphone pattern, and 1 more day of selling, won't change that. 

Oil - finally seeing a blow-off top in Oil, as I predicted last week. In fact we had already seen BRENT crude overshoot, yesterday, and I'll be looking to add to my Oil short on today's panic short covering. 

No worries 

Take Care, AA 

Market Update 2/23/22 "Stocks Rise in the Spring"

 Quoting myself: "Stocks Rise in the Spring" 

In the past I've also referred to this phenomenon as the great "Dash for Trash", which typically happens in the Spring.  

And I'm sure you've all heard the old term, "Sell In May and Go Away", and this refers to profit taking, after a big Q1 rally. Market's are cyclical. 

Now to the charts: 

I started out charting, or wanting to chart, tech, or the NASDAQ, after hearing Bloomberg report that tech has corrected 10%. Look, this is the same bottom of the range we've been trading in for months! Anyone with a chart can see that! 

One exception would be $SOX (Semiconductors), which managed to make a slightly lower low. $SOX leads Tech, so if $SOX leads the market higher, then tech is coming along for the ride; that's a no-brainer.  

$SOX - Bullish candlestick, at support. Also Note where this market was jacked above the 200 day ma? That's one reason I turned bearish... 

 

As I blogged yesterday; fake news aside, nothing has changed. 

NASDAQ - Could easily make a new all time high in a broadening top pattern. 

Tech - probably going back to the top of the range. 

$XLK parallel channel 

Oops wrong chart. This one! Looking for a nice little (early) spring rally in #technology #Stocks pic.twitter.com/o1lNC49RHN

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) February 22, 2022

From there we could see stocks hold up into the summer, only because volume is typically light during this time, and it takes time, a lot of time, to form a top. Also, assuming this is going to look like a wave 5 of 5, then that means it's not going to be as explosive as wave 3 was, and momentum is likely going to slow to a crawl. There is simply no possible way this wave can complete before the 4th of July. 

Oil 

$USO - Bid raised at yesterday's open. 

$USO  (WTI Crude ETF):  - was obviously rigged higher on yesterday's fake news; see where the price was "jacked", above resistance.

Looks like someone decided to come in and manipulate #oil, this morning $USU. I bet Jim Cramer knows... pic.twitter.com/659G7H9Dfz

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) February 22, 2022

They do this all the time. Take out res., or break support... in pre-market trading. Even Cramer knows this is how markets are rigged. Yesterday, It managed to retest the high, but that's about it. Listening to the lame stream media, you would think the oil bulls were winning, but after all the talk of $100 oil, the bulls did not get paid on their $100 March contract bets, and I believe oil needs to correct ahead of the next Fed meeting. If Oil corrects, then the Fed can justify putting off a rate hike, or at least doing anything drastic. 

$USO - I like it at the 50 day moving average, at 58.69 support.  

$RSX Russia ETF was taken down below the 200 day moving average... More evidence of the continual market manipulation by the geniuses at government sachs. 

 Good Luck, AA 

Market Update 2/22/22 - The Sell-off in Market Futures - Overnight - Doesn't Count

 We saw a sharp - bullish - reversal overnight - on continuous fake Russia News. CNBC was even seen reporting that Russia had told their troops to invade Ukraine. Preposterous! 

This remains me of one of the best calls I've ever made, which was to buy futures - down over 1000 points - when Trump won, the election. I called it "a gift"!

 I had a private Twitter feed at the time - for traders - and I told them to ignore futures, and "buy the open", and the rest is history.   

Friday's weakness was unexpected, as was the weakness in futures, but that was due to China being down (not Russia)? Anyhow, the opening bell is in 5 minutes, and my bullish prediction from last week hasn't changed.   

I'm not long China, but if I see a good entry point, I'll let you know.... 

Good luck this week, AA 

Market Update Friday 2/18/22 - Another Day - Another Bullish Setup - Another Dollar

To wrap up the trading week:

We've seen the market whipsawing around quite a bit this week, and that means an excellent trading , as long as you can stay on the right side of the trade, as I have... over the past several months. 

I already find myself up nearly 70%, over the past few months, and now I'm beginning to understand why the market was held up into the end of the year (2021). I've recently  learned that you pay lower capital gains tax, on positions which are held onto for more than a year, whereas any gains you take for positions you hold for less than a year, are taxed as regular income, and this amounts to billions of dollars for pension funds, hedge funds, and the banks. 

 I haven't really had to worry about capital gains, until this year, when I started trading a substantial account, whereas during the first 10 - 14 years I only traded with very small accounts.  

The key to swing tradeing this week, came down to a correct reading of the constantly manipulated $VIX.

$VIX - even the 5 min $VIX chart kept me on track, for most the week. 

On Monday Valentines Day we saw a little pullback - to a higher recent low - on fake news of a Russian invasion, of Ukraine. It seems like everyone except the lame stream media, and the white house, figured out these were false reports, based on a sarcastic statement made by the president of the Ukraine Volodymy Zelenskyy. This just goes to show how stupid, or corrupt, the people running our state department are, and that they'll do anything to try to distract from the real news. 

Fake News 1. Russian Invasion Imminent - continues to be reported.  

Real News stories - not being reported - 4, 5 , maybe even more...?   

a.  Who Are Those ‘Techies’ Who Spied on Trump?

‘Benevolent posse’ or partisans for Hillary Clinton? John Durham has the answer. WSJ

b. BLM hires Clinton aide who paid for Steele dossier to sort shady finances NYPost 

c. President Joe Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, is the 'foreign policy adviser' mentioned in the indictment of a former Hillary Clinton campaign lawyer dailymail 

d. FDA executive officer is caught on Project Veritas hidden camera admitting Biden will force an ANNUAL Covid shot that would be a 'recurring fountain of revenue' for drug firms dailymail 

e. Meanwhile... Covid restrictions are quietly being dropped. 

I could explain, why it was that I continued to call for further consolidation (lower) after Tuesday's rally (on more fake news - that Russia was pulling out. Yes, they were reporting this, in order to help facilitate a short squeeze), but I don't really have the time... 

The market opened over 2 hours ago, and I want to wrap this up!  

Next Week's Forecast 

Expect to rally into next week, on a much lower $VIX, and even into the spring as predicted earlier.   

Oil has been a little weak over the past few days, but don't feel like a reversal, and Options don't expire until 2/22/22. I think we could see one last pump, ahead of that date, followed by a nasty correction. 

$UCO - Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil - watch for a throw-over (manipulated of course) above the top of the pattern, above $125. This is how the corrupt oil bulls can guarantee, that they'll get paid on their Options contracts. 

   

Take Care, AA 

Market Update 2/14/22 - Friday's Panic Sell-off - In Hindsight

 It was just after lunch, on Friday, when I noticed the market suddenly down 1.5%, and that swiftly took out support on the short term chart. 

This looked like algorithmic trading programs kicking in, on news that Russia might invade Ukraine. Of course this is old news, but the algos are programmed to scan breaking news reports for key words, so it may have been something as simple as the words "Russian, Ukraine, and invasion",  that triggered the selling. 

I have to wonder why the white-house waits until a Friday afternoon, during normal trading hours to drop this bombshell. Is this to help government Sach's bullish Oil contracts? I wouldn't be at all surprised.   

Anyhow, this constitutes more than a 1 day sell-off, and it has broken some charts, so I think you have to remain cautious. 

To be honest I'm long certain sectors, and short others, and I think once the market builds a base, we're going to be looking at a rally into February OPEX. 

$NDX - Watch for window dressing in big tech names to last into the end of the quarter.

Of course that's also going to lift the DOW, and we could still see 38k by spring. 

I would not be buying defense contractors, as WWIII has already been priced in 100x, over the past 30+ years. 

I also wouldn't be hoping for a breakout in Oil 

$WTIC - Texas Crude 

In fact I think once the word gets out that Tech is back in favor, you'll see energy dumped, and it will soon become obvious, why the Fed is all talk, and no action. 

When Oil is crushed, the inflation story will die. 

That's about all I got time for, and all I'm willing to reveal, for free. 

Have a great week! AA 

Market Update 2/11/2022 - The Perfect Pullback Ahead Of VD Day

 Looking at yesterday's pullback: 

Just after yesterday's update, I called several tops, and sold - among other things $SOX at resistance. 

$SOX is being bought at support - at my red line pic.twitter.com/ULBgBFm18i

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) February 10, 2022

$SOXS was up 6% last I checked. Not a bad day trade  

 It looked like this on the $SPX  - 

Little pullback on the $SPX. $VIX has already been hammered at res. Rally into VDay as predicted pic.twitter.com/whaaJPTUFx

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) February 10, 2022

That's the chart from the public charts area, and you see resistance on the VIX on the #1 chart there.

We did see another little shakeout in futures overnight, but that doesn't count. 

Of course the lame stream media is blaming "inflation", for the pullback, and Bloomberg brings Mohamad El-Erian on, practically every time the market pulls back.

 

Anything for a story, to sell subscriptions - to bloomberg.com - I guess. I'll pass, on more mass hysteria fake news. I'll pass, on more fake news, thank you!

They used to bring on Dr. Doom, every time they wanted retail investors to go short, ahead of a long weekend, but I guess El Erian is more available, or maybe easier to work with?Valentines Day isn't an official holiday, but it may as well be, as bankers do some last minute shopping.

We also saw Oil pull back, and fill the gap, and even Cryptos. It was an all around spectacular day.

I'm already out of time! 

Watch for stocks, and oil to hold up into Monday, as predicted. 

Have a good weekend, AA 

Lousy Trading Environment, but things could pick up shortly

 Looks like we've gone from a great trading environment, back to a lousy trading environment, in only a couple weeks. This is typical, after a big move, like the one we saw back in Jan. At least the lame stream media isn't still asking their bearish guests, "have we seen the bottom..."? 

We've also seen some big moves in NatGas. First we saw some ridiculous gaps higher (which I called "suckers rallies", followed by several gaps lower; giving back all the gains of the previous 5 days. 

I remained short, in fact I tripped down on my short bets, and did very well....   

The broader market has continued to rally... as predicted in the last blog. 

Yesterday we saw the short sellers squeezed out of several sectors, as the DOW was rigged higher, ahead of Disney's earnings results.   

$INDU - the bid was raised above the 25.6 level at the open, then Disney earnings... 

 

You have some big player in Disney, including the crooked banks, so expect a gap fill there. 

They did a similar thing on the NASDAQ. Raising the bid above resistance, at the open. This was pretty well orchestrated, but I didn't see any fake news, to speak of. 

$IWX  - Russell (Top Value) trades into a bearish right shoulder.  Something to watch. 

But why on God's green earth is Canada trading at all time highs? I'd say the Canadian Central Banks is rigging their market, just as the Fed is....  but the energy rally has also helped keep Canada afloat.  

$TSX Canada is the thing to watch. 

Analysis: Investors eye uncharted waters as quantitative tightening looms in Canada Reuters 

$SPX - the thing to watch is the 50 day moving average, if is manages to break out ahead of the weekend. Support becomes the breakout above the right shoulder, yesterday (4545 level). That's also where the 200 day moving average is trading, so we may be looking at another nasty Monday Morning surprise, on Valentines Day. You know what to do when that level breaks. 

$DJUSEN - Energy looks like it's set to crash, any day now. Look like another head-fake wave "B", propelled by the belief that there's is a super cycle in commodities. See my Wave C pullback target. 

  

So Energy, and Canada, are set to crash. Could take a couple more weeks to get going, I suppose, but the $VIX already looks oversold. What's it doing back below 20..? Watch for volatility to return, shortly! 

Take Care, AA