Thursday, January 14, 2016

Technical Update 01/14/2016 - what's really moving this market

Picking up where we left off

 
We did get a bounce off our Fibonacci target (s) earlier in the week, but those levels have long since broken down. So much for Math
 
 
The $VIX continues to work, and this still looks like a pullback in wave B (on most charts), but there are a couple things to watch. The Transportation index for one.
 
 
$TRAN - in a panic wave "E". This is the cause of market angst, and when commodities rebound this one is coming along for the ride. Add it to your tickers because I'm expecting a violent reversal shortly.
 
 
 
You've probably heard it reported that Oil is moving the market, but Oil and China are NOT moving the market. Oil was up yesterday, and did the market care? No. Another false narrative, being spun by the powers that be... speaking of which an update I saw on CNBC this morning entitled "Ouch!....". More proof that the Networks who are owned by the banks, are the enemy of your trade.
 
All that matters is fear & greed (market sentiment) and money being put to work or not. A buyers strike is one of the scenarios - for Jan., 2016 - I put out there over the holidays - and that's exactly what we're seeing. Eventually money must be put to work, and what better time to squeeze the shorts than heading into earnings season.     
 
Back to the $VIX: Earlier in the week, when I saw the rally fading I said, "we could see a lower market low on a lower $VIX, and that's exactly what we saw yesterday. I'm not pointing this out to toot my own horn, it's just something I'm seen many times before. Same goes for the larger sell-off in Oil, on a lower $UVX. And if it's not fear selling the market off, it's a good old fashioned shakeout.
 
If the $VIX is being manipulated we could even see a false breakout followed by a quick reversal. I don't really see that happening, but if we do... the VIX 26.81 area seems to be the swing point. If the $VIX continues to break out, and the market continues to break down, watch for a sentiment change at the 35 level.  Key $VIX support 20 with no fear below that level. Buy below 26.81. Sell above yesterday's high.  
  

Not all indices are equal

 
We got the NADSDAQ holding up in a range, while the broader market (as measured by the $NYSE) is taking out the August lows.  And the DOW may have traded down 300+ points yesterday, but it's still trading well above the August lows. That points to this NOT being a broad market sell-off.
 
There just isn't much panic associated with the recent selling, and repeated selling into the market close proves the pro shorts (the crooks) are behind it. Conversely when you see rallying into the close you know it's retail shorts covering.
 
Another thing to watch is a break-out of this bearish channel in wave "C" on the 30 minute chart provided in my public charts area [linked] (which should mark the end of this pullback). We're very close to a sharp reversal.
 

 
We're also very close to a reversal in energy, and that's where I want to be when Oil reverses.
Here's a view of a double zigzag pattern - in energy - not offered in my public charts. Again very close.
 
 
When I hear Jim Cramer telling folks to stay away from Schlumberger $SLB, I gotta wonder where his allegiance really lies. Seems to me his job is to keep people in the game while at the same time steering than in the wrong direction.  Take a look at the completed bearish leading diagonal triangle pattern below, and what comes next!  
 
With OPEX just around the corner maybe we see another washout - slightly lower - as soon as today, but timelines are difficult to predict.
 
Thanks for watching and I'll see you on Twitter, AA.
 

 
 
 

Monday, January 11, 2016

Bullish stockmarket update 01/09/16

 

That's right, "Bullish..."!

First off: To the illuminati puppets who continue to send their trolls to my twitter feed, desperately trying to sabotage our trade, I know your M.O. (modus operandi), "Ordo ab Chao" (Order out of Chaos). We know you didn't buy every main-stream cable news network so that you could report the truth to the American people, anymore than to help the little guy make money trading stocks, and if I see the financial news reported at CNBC and Bloomberg for what it is - complete and utter BS - then you can bet your ass that opinions, and personal insults - posted to my twitter feed - carry no weight at all, and are immediately disregarded. My analysis is rock solid and won't be swayed by anyone, or for any amount of money; I won't be used as a contrarian indicator. Once again you've failed miserably.

For those who've been paying attention 

 
I've remained bearish for some time now, looking for a pullback in wave A or (X) as stated in my latest interview with Dale at FXStreet [linked in the upper left menu]. Not a bear market, a pullback! The market pulled back more than expected, but that's typical. What isn't typical is for markets to sell off into the beginning of the year. The main reason for this is that profit taking in certain high flying stocks was delayed until the new year for tax purposes. 
 

Is this the bear market?

 
Dennis Gartman, was recently quoted on CNBC, saying, 


"This is a bear market" Trend lines that have held in the past are failing. Lower lows and lower highs are more and more common.

Dennis seems like a stand-up guy, while CNBC is routinely seen drenched in Illuminati symbolism as documented in this video [linked]. Note the all seeing eye of Horus in the pyramid, etc. Also see the YouTube video, "Jim Cramer says (live) on TV that the illuminati is not all bad & more!" [linked].

Who are these people?


Creating a panic when you own all the media outlets must be pretty easy. All it takes is a little money, some inside information, and creative minds. Pro shorts selling as investors take profits would be enough to take the $SPX down 120 handles in a week. Than just blame it on China, or some other nonsense.
No doubt in my mind that when the freemasons aren't running false flag operations, trying to cause Chaos in the world, so that they can offer more outrageous solutions (order out of chaos), they're busy rigging markets, but let's go to the charts, to see if we can't get some clarity on what's actually going on in the markets.

$VIX - and if you haven't done so already, read my blog devoted entirely to this important indicator. As I pointed out going into Friday's close.  Fear isn't off the chart, in fact, it looks like it just peaked out. Capitulation Fridays are common, but that's about all this market has in common with the 2007 - 2008 crash.


It's very dangerous to be short this market, at a major capitulating point, because short covering brings twice the number of buyers. It's called a "short squeeze". Someone recently asked me where I saw support on the S&P, and I told them to watch the $VIX, because clear market support isn't nearly as important as a change in market sentiment. Markets are often sold below support in order to shake out the weak hands.

The $SOX chart below will be used to documents 2 important points.

1. The idea that we're seeing "lower lows is obviously false". But how can that be when I saw it reported on CNBC as fact? The fact is that we no longer see investigative reporting. What we do see more and more of is manipulation of the facts in order to please the powers that be.

2. A key Fibonacci retracement - pointed this out as I saw it coming on Thursday, along with an important gap fill target. Dow 16373 is the 61.8% (golden mean) retracement. And the same thing on the NASDAQ - higher highs/higher lows.

Market patterns, just as patterns in nature, are governed by natural law. If you don't know how to trade "Fibonacci" retracements (pullbacks) you should google it. It's math and geometry and many traders base their trades on Fibonacci because it works.

The one sector we recently saw trade to lower lows, is the Russell 2000.  A slight throw over beyond the boundaries of this type of (broadening) triangle pattern is completely normal - looks like a little washout at Friday's close. Expecting plenty more volatility on the trend reversal, accompanied by another throw-over at the top of the pattern (in purple).

 
Even China looks like a normal pullback.

Many charts can be found at stockcharts.com on my public charts page - linked in the upper left menu. I don't make a dime trading this market, so please support this blog by making a generous donation using the PayPal link above.