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Friday, December 15, 2017

Market Update 12/15/2017 - OPEX Friday

Market kind of, "threw me for a loop", yesterday, as the new high on the NASDAQ was immediately sold, and the trend on the 1 minute chart I posted in yesterday's update broke down.

Confirms what I was seeing in the charts, earlier in the week, but I didn't expect a new high, before the reversal. Perhaps the round number on the NASDAQ was the bulls psychological target? Who knows, but as long as you knew enough to sell as the pink support line broke, you did well.

Here is the chart I posted soon after the open:

 NASDAQ seems to be whipsawing in a range - could be an expanded flat, or a broadening triangle, and the lack of volatility confirms a consolidation pattern.

Maybe we see the lower purple line tested this OPEX? I'll update this chart throughout the day, so watch my twitter feed.

Silver and gold retreated as expected. 

$SOX may be your best bet, so watch for a break out into a powerful wave "C" there.

I called the Russell 2000 a buy going into yesterday's close, and we're seeing a bounce on the $RUT this morning, but not sure we've seen the bottom. Lock in profits...
$RUT presents another confusing chart pattern, but support is the pink line, and again at the lower purple line - another broadening range.

 That's all the time I got this morning. Watch my twitter feed for continued market updates @3xtraders


Thursday, December 14, 2017

Market Update 12/14/2017 - Market on Track for Santa Claus Rally

After a couple days of confusing sideways consolidation, in a sub-minuette wave "iv" (of 3); the market is on track for a nice Santa Claus Rally, in wave v of 3. 

$SPX chart shows the market found support at the bottom of a bullish channel (seen in blue), after yesterday's "sell the news" event (Fed decision). Also see the contracting sideways triangle pattern, with a little panic wave "e", which I predicted yesterday.

It's not often, that we get a clear indication of market direction, heading into an OPEX Friday, but most traders have already covered their short bets, and probably doing their Christmas shopping. This is typically what happens around each holiday, as I'm sure I've said 1000 times.... and to top it off, the cabal is throwing everything they have at this market, so that they can collect on their yearly bonuses. They're panic buying, and the fact that the Elliott Waves are working, proves that these are people driving this market, not machines. Greed rules the day!

Here's the timeline: Build a base today (Thursday), rally into OPEX Friday, and then hold up above the next level of support 2670, on low volume next week. That should be enough time to complete the next wave 4 (consolidation)... and that sets up for a rally into the new year - in wave 5.

And not only did we catch several nice trades intra-day on Wed, but we also saw Silver and Gold, and the miners, rally on the Fed news.

Tweeted Dec 12th:

I believe yesterday's pop in Silver and Gold - on Fed news - is not worth chasing, but we'll see. I don't have time to update the chart here, so watch my twitter feed @3Xtraders, and we'll be watching for a more tradable bottom in metals in early 2018. Same goes for NatGas.... 

While this is all very exciting, we're going to see profit taking in 2018, when the lower tax rates kick in, or once wave 5 completes. That's going to bring with it higher volatility, and better trading in 2018, and that's something to get really excited about - a major trend reversal! 

Have a Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year


Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Market Update 12/5/2017 - Sector Rotation - NOT!

Last update I nailed Friday's dip, to within 7 points on the Dow, so I feel like I have a good handle on this market. We also saw the $VIX get above the 13 level, for an instant, before the market recovered, back above the 2630 level on the S&P.

Friday's chart: "Nailed it"

Yesterday the SPX popped higher, and by the end of the day had filled the gap. If you're not familiar with the technical market, term, "gap fill", try investopedia.

The clueless nitwhits at Bloomberg, were calling yesterday's action a "sector rotation", because the NASDAQ was down slightly? That's not a sector rotation. We're not seeing Tech sell off, and go somewhere else. We are seeing "bricks and mortar" (retail) rally, as I predicted last month, as retail continued to be heavily shorted, along with certain food chains like Buffalo Wild Wings up 50%, since I called it out. 

$BWLD - seen re-taking the 200 day, on heavy volume. So much for the bearish death cross... worthless indicator. 

We even see Macy's screaming to the upside, so there have been some good trades to be had...

$M - saw this rally coming a mile away, and there's nothing like a good short squeeze during the holidays.

LB, GAP, GME, all up big - to name a few, and those who make monthly donations to this website haven't missed a thing, believe me!

As far as the broader market, it's being held up - into the end of the year - so that money managers get their yearly bonuses, and as long as the $VIX remains below 12.50, that trend is going to continue.

I do think that once we see profits locked in for 2017, we're going to see a massive sell-off, either into primary wave 4 (in a bull market), or the Armageddon trade - similar to what we saw in 07-08, but much worse, and prolonged.

Financials have traded into what looks like Super Cycle wave "B", and a SC wave C is a very powerful thing. Financials are not leading, despite what the fake financial news networks report.
New highs mean nothing, in a bearish pattern.


That's all I have time for today.

Friday, December 1, 2017

Market Update 12/1/2017 - sector rotation

It's been a while since I've provided an update, except for the article I posed to LinkedIn - a couple weeks ago - in which I said there was "no market correction in sight", and that "Transports were now in a position to lead the Dow higher", and the rest is history.

This was my prediction on $TRAN, although it moved too far too fast. Not good. 

Transports & the Dow, both hit new all time highs, just yesterdays, so now what? Sell Transports & the broader market, of course.  

If you were following my twitter feed on Thursday, you were advised to "sell into strength", and sell the top of the channel, seen on the chart below.

Volume is up, which points to short covering, yet the RSI remains relatively weak, and that's because this rally lacked participation. Emerging markets - which had lead the entire rally... - are down, as is tech, semi-conductors, and the NASDAQ. What does this mean? What is means is nobody is making money, except those who engineered this fake rally, over the Thanksgiving holiday. New money has not come into the market, rather Hedge Fund managers, robbed Peter, to pay Paul, and this rally in the Dow is nothing more than a PsyOp designed to make the average investor feel good, and go deeper into debt. This rally has nothing to do with the proposed tax cuts, which are now stalled in the Senate, and have everything to do with driving the Dow up into the holiday shopping season, and Wall Street bonuses being paid out at the end of the year. Keep in mind most funds close their books, before the end of the month, so we could see a mad rush for the exits, before year end.

Regardless of my thoughts on this market, and the economy, the chart says "sell".

Short term support on the Dow looks like 23914, which is only a 350 point shakeout below where most technicians would believe obvious support is (at 23975 where I painted the green line). Support, and your buy signal is actually slightly lower, at 23914.

Short term support on the SPX looks like 2625, and the pattern resembles a blow off top in a broadening top (seen in blue). Expect a dead cat bounce off the top of that pattern, but I don't believe that will hold, as we trade into Dec. OPEX.When the 2597 level breaks, 2572 should provide support for a snap-back rally going into Hanukkah, and Christmas.  

The $VIX has shown signs of strength over the past couple day's, and that's something to be nervous about. It tells me, whoever has been pumping this market, is preparing to dump it, and get paid on their bearish options bets. The $VXO is up 22% this week. 

Most hated sectors:

Financials - The entire rally - since March - looks like a head fake (wave B triangle), and the throw-over in wave "e", seems to confirm it. Sets up for a powerful wave "C".


That's all the time I got. I have a lot going on including preparing for a lights out situation.... Hoarding gasoline, and propane, and such. I suggest you have a plan in place when the proverbial SHTF.

Take Care, AA