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Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Market Update 5/30/2017

Many traders are taking the rest of the week off, and that makes it easy for the powers that be to manipulate markets, however, I am expecting a little pullback, over the next day or 2. From there money will be put to work at the beginning of the month, as usual.

This morning we see futures holding support at the upper blue arrow @ 2410. Once that support breaks I'll be watching for a washout to around the  2395 area (where you see the lower blue arrow). If that level breaks, 2385 is key support, and a 50% retracement, of last weeks rally. 

Key resistance on the $VIX is 11. Key resistance on the SPX short term futures (the $VXX) is 15. 

Key support on the Russell 2000 is 1296, with the 50 week ma trending @1300. 

Key support on financials is the 50 day, on the $DJUSFN. I'd be a seller if that level breaks. 

Gold rallied off the 50 day ma, on Friday, but I'm still expecting a pullback to the 1220's. 

Gold miners are a sell, and a devastating wave 3 of 3 is possible. This is probably your best bet if you're looking for volatility, but a short #NATGAS trade is another option.  


The NASDAQ worries me, since it's lead the entire rally, and the $VXN remains elevated and is seen back-testing key support. If you're long the broader market, this is where I'd be hedged, with some short positions. 

Bicoin! Almost forgot about the big reversal in bitcoin. Sell that. Support looks like $265  

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Market update 5/24/2017 - Outlook for the Summer

My outlook for the summer is pretty drab, but don't become complacent...

We continue to see stocks drift sideways in a range, and that trend is likely to continue into the summer.

The smart money took profits in March, and we continue to see every rally sold. It's hard to say when we'll see the rug pulled out, as summer usually brings with it low volume, and low volatility. Maybe we see another August surprise, like we saw in 2015? Not even Nostradamus, gave timelines for his his dire predictions...

One thing is certain: The longer this correction takes the higher the 200 day ma rises, as seen on the Dow chart below, and even if the market were to correct 1000 points tomorrow, the buy target is only a slight shakeout, below the DOW 20,000 level, which would no doubt set up for another rally into the end of the year.

2 weeks back; when I started composing this update: I found certain stocks (quality names) being dumped - stocks which had recently made new all time highs - while certain other stocks continue to be pressed ever-higher. This balancing gives the appearance that everything is fine, when everything is obviously not fine.

The Dow chart - this is a simplified version that anyone can understand. If you follow me on Twitter you may have seen we tweet out a similar chart showing a extended wave 4 triangle, concluding with the same target, or maybe slightly lower, around the 19,500 level. That seems more likely, than a sudden crash, considering that the $VIX remains trapped in a range.

Even though I'm only calling for a 1000 point correction on the Dow, don't become complacent this summer. If the $VIX were to break out above our line in the sand, all hell will certainly break loose, and all bets will be off the table. If you watched my latest interview with Dale Pinkert @ForexStopHunter, you should know exactly where that red line is. If you don't know where the line in the sand is, you haven't been paying attention, and have some homework to do. Find that interview linked in the left side menu.

Short term: The $VIX is oversold, and may remain that way going into the Memorial day holiday, but the market may also consolidate lower.  

The $NYSE trading in a smaller range, and that trend is likely to continue for the time being. I don't see it breaking out, or crashing.  

Follow me on twitter @3Xtrades 

Friday, May 19, 2017

Major breakout on the gold chart!

I used an exclamation point in the title, because buyers of gold tend to be very emotional, but it's best to keep your emotions in check. Emotion is your worst enemy, when it comes to trading/ investing.

Some say gold is a safe haven, some believe gold is bound to go higher because gold is a hedge against a weakening dollar (inflation), in a continuing recovery, but we don't trade on a believe on fundamentals, because what the end result leaves investors, and traders, believing in the fundamentals, rather than believing the chart. Fundamentalists will continue to insist that valuation, matters, even as markets continue to crash, and if you've never experienced this phenomenon, you have a lot to learn. There always comes a time, when valuation goes out the 27th story window.

I only care about the technicals, and what I see is a continuing rebound in gold which started in Nov, 2015. From there we saw gold rally from 1045.50 - to 1377.50, in only a few months. Once gold topped out, we watched gold tumble back to the 1130 level, about $50 beyond where I started calling for a bottom (@ $1180), and I remained bullish, eventually calling the bottom on gold precisely at $1130. Some would say, (particularly the loud mouthed, Monday morning quarterbacks, on CNBC's Fast Money), I was early, and that means I was "wrong", and If that's the case I wish to be wrong more often! I don't sell oversold shakeouts, any more than I buy overbought tech stocks!

A severely oversold shakeout is typical for Gold as it is for most commodities... they tend to shake out even the strongest hands, even shaking out the most seasoned traders, by taking out key support levels. This is how the game is played; Take out support (in bear marker), or resistance (in a bull market), and then take profits. We saw the same thing in oil at the end of 2015, where I was very bullish energy, ahead of the massive reversal...

All that I've explained above it best illustrated on the gold chart below. Shakeouts at the highs, and at the lows. If you don't know basic Elliott Wave Theory, you don't know what a powerful wave C is, so I suggest you study it this weekend. I have a free tutorial linked in the left side menu, or do a simple google search. To help explain where I think gold is in the wave count wave 2 is a pullback in a corrective pattern labeled a-b-c.

Gold: Key support looks like 1211 (my pink line). Short term resistance is the 50 day ma, just above where gold is trading. Key resistance is 1300.

Here's another view of the same timeline, and what a powerful wave 3 of C typically looks like.

Here's the same thing on the daily candlestick chart. Also shows the DMA level at 1248.75, and rising.

Short term watch for a breakout above the 50 day. Seeing gold up again this morning.
Take care, and have a great weekend, AA

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Market Update 5/16/2017

Made an excellent call on Friday, identifying the bear trap (in wave ii) , and catching a powerful little wave iii, and this despite a supposed global cyber-attack. The Main Stream Media - including FOX - called it a "massive attack", even though, it only affected 200,000 computers, and hardly affected the US.

It's to the point where you can't trust anything being reported, but stocks seldom move according to news. News is typically a contrarian indicator. Oil goes up, they report what they think the reason it. Oil rallies, they report something else.

What's interesting is the current news cycle continues to run negative airline stories, and that has to be drawing retail shorts in. I know it sounds crazy, but this looks planned to me. Could be that they're trying to help their ratings, by continuing to hype these type of stories, but the airlines get decent reviews from the people who regularly fly.    

Why am I talking about the fake news cycle? Because the media is owned and controlled by Wall Street, and the deep state, and that's self evident by the number of false narratives being sold to investors, and the general public.

Here's a good trading tip; ignore the news, unless you're using them as a contrarian indicator. By the time the news breaks, Government Sachs has already priced it in, and planning to take profits, and Warren Buffet has already sold (whatever), and you're going to be the last to know...
Remember the only catalyst for buying stocks, at the bottom of the housing crash, was that negative sentiment had run it's course.

Why am I talking about all this? We saw American Airlines Group Inc. ($AAL), up 1.84% yesterday, and it's up again in pre-market this morning, and Transportation stocks lead the Dow, not tech (as some would have you believe), and if $TRAN can start leading again, the Dow can continue to break out to news highs. I may be getting a little ahead of myself, because we could see continued consolidation over the summer, but here's the revised bullish EW count on the Transports. 


$SPX looks like it wants to break-out to new highs, but we have yet to see it. Dow is lagging the S&P. Russell has a little room to run, in what looks like a bearish consolidation pattern. After yesterday's big move, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pause.

I'm already deep into my summer ritual of re-evaluating my own work (from the previous year), and updating the charts, but I'll be watching, and Tweeting out the market action as I see it.

Follow me on Twitter @3Xtraders

If I help keep you on the right side of the trade, help support this website, by making a generous donation using the PayPal link in the left side menu.

Monday, May 15, 2017

Stock Market Update 5/15/2017

Oil and energy continue to break out, after calling the bottom in last weeks interview, with Dale Pinkert, and crew.
$GJX Energy breaks above the 200 day ma.

$SPX continues to break out... regains support above 2392, as I predicted going into Friday's close.
Once the market breaks out to new highs, Money Managers will be forced to put money to work, and that will lead to more short covering - leading into the summer break.

 China continues to break out.

The NASDAQ may roll over and consolidate lower going into the fall, as predicted last week.

As always ignore the idiots - on Twitter - trying to throw a monkey wrench into my winning analysis. These are probably the same folks who tried to shake us out last week.


Friday, May 12, 2017

Market update 5/12/2017 Pullbacks v Sell-offs - advanced trading techniques

Pullbacks v Sell-offs

This is the perfect time to continue talking more about technical theory, and although you might find it boring, it's going to help you understand basic Elliott Wave theory, and that's going to help you read any one of my charts, and that's going to help you anticipate the next trade.

Yesterday's bear attack looks like a 1 day event, and a nice little shakeout ahead of OPEX. We didn't see much movement on the $VIX, as it continues to hang in the bottom of the range. Low $VIX = small market moves. At $VIX 10 you don't see big sell-offs, and even if the $VIX were to test resistance @ the top of the range (12.25), we're only going to see the DOW test the 20,725 level.

I don't see us revisiting yesterday's lows, anytime soon, and that's because the $SPX held the May low. This is important, because as long as we don't make new lows, a bear market is not confirmed.
This is because a pullback looks like a "higher high", which is exactly what we saw, and that points to a pullback. You could say, "but the Dow took out the May low"..., but The April low on the DOW is around 20,400, and we saw a huge bullish hammer off the 50 day, and that's an impulse wave, and you hardly ever see one impulse. Yesterday's rally off the lows, looks like an impulse, and the fact that it broke out above key resistance, tells me the market isn't selling off.

Now you're probably asking, "what is an impulse wave? If you study Elliott Wave Theory, you'll find "impulse waves" mentioned, in passing, and that "one impulse is always followed by another", but they fail to explain what an impulse wave is. The easiest way to explain what an impulse wave is, is that it's a powerful move, like the rally we saw off the lows yesterday. and only the first leg up in a bull market, or the first leg down in a bear market. An impulse wave is wave A (in a counter-trend), or wave 1 in a trend, but can also be a powerful wave C in a counter trend, but the important thing to remember, is that the first impulse is followed by a pullback - just like the one we're seeing this morning.  

I think the easiest way to explain what an impulse wave is, is to draw it on the 1 min $SPX chart. The EW count below is an example of the most bullish scenario, which would be a breakout to new highs, into OPEX, and into the summer. To be clear, I'm not making that prediction, but it seems the most probable outcome.

In a bear market this is what the EW count might look like. Impulse wave A, followed by a pullback into wave B, and the corrective A-B-C pattern completing with a second impulse (in wave C).

 I see yet, another scenario where the rally fades @2401 level again, but let's put that up on the shelf, for now. Either way, I see yesterday's shakeout as a 1 day event. A blip on the radar, and a failed bear attack. Read more about how to hammer markets down, in a bear attack, in "Jim Cramer's Guide to Market Manipulation" 

Final note: We've seen Oil on a tear, and that points to an impulse wave. No doubt the powers that be are planning to get paid on their bearish options (in the energy sector) this month, so expect a pullback there.

Take care, and have a great weekend, AA

Thursday, May 11, 2017

Market update 5/11/2017

Picking up where we left off 

Trend and Trend Reversals 

To review where we left off, before I ran out of time: Once a trend is established it's likely to continue, and until it reverses, a trend reversal can't be confirmed. It can take some time, to confirm a major market reversal, but it usually starts with the short term trend breaking - in a big way - and this is why it's important to know where support, and resistance is. If you know where support is you know where to get out, and even get short when it breaks. Most traders will miss a big market move, and then wait for a bounce that never comes, and at that point, you've already missed the boat, and you should probably be looking to bet counter-trend, once a bottom forms, and that process takes some time. Don't let your emotions control your trade. If you miss the boat, accept it, move on, and live to trade another day. 

I remember telling folks to buy gold miners at the end of 2016, ahead of the reversals I saw coming, in many of the gold miner charts, and on the $JDST (3X bear jr gold miners) chart. From there we saw the trend on $JDST break, and lose nearly 60% of it's value, in only a couple weeks. 

In hindsight there's a lot to be learned from the recent action in gold miners, and I'm using these charts, because they are the most extreme example of a leveraged ETF, and the best example of a major trend reversal in recent memory. You aren't nearly as likely to lose 60% of your nest egg, in a leveraged small cap fund, but Jr miners are super volatile, and easily manipulated. 

 Lesson we can learn from the chart below.
  1. Don't trade 3X leveraged funds, if you lack the ability to spot a trend reversal.
  2. Don't trade real money if you lack the discipline to cut your losses. Trade a practice (virtual) account. These virtual accounts are free at CBOE. Link 
  3. Don't continue to sell already beaten up, and heavily shorted stocks into light holiday volume
  4. Those who claim leveraged ETFs should only be held for a day, don't know what they're talking about. If you have the discipline to stick with the trend, that trend may continue for some time.
  5. Trend lines work, even on volatile leveraged ETF charts, the latest of which we saw break yesterday. 

We'll get more into trading leveraged ETFs in the future, but let's take a look at today's market action. 

$VIX remains pinned in the bottom of the range. Yeah, the market is complacent, but that can continue for some time. The fact is there's no fear in this market. That can turn on a dime, but probably won't, because this is short covering season, and the bulls know it. 

I recommended Energy/Oil and Biotech, in my interview on Monday. 

Oil is on a tear, and we'll be watching for a bullish trend (channel) to develop there. 

Biotech: Looks like a pullback into a bullish wave 2 (of 5) to me. 

Russell 2000: Made a break though on this chart after yesterday's close. If this is what you like to trade, see my tweets, around 4:30 PM CST. 

I'm a virtual (CBOE practice account) seller of the $SOX. Will it continue to break out above resistance? I don't know.  

The S&P continues to stall at resistance: Sell in May, and go away, is still a possibility. 
Watch the $VIX as always. Don't base your intermediate term outlook, on a silly 1 min chart, because that can break faster than you can even open your sell window. Key short term support can be found on the 1 min $SPX min chart, which I tweeted out many time yesterday. 2397.50 & 2393.50. 

If we see a reversal, I believe financials will lead the decline, not only based in insurance co's pulling out of ObamaCare, but the updated $BKX chart located in my public, "Charts of Doom", linked in the left hand menu. Maybe financials decouple? 

That's all the time I got. Excuse the typos, ans thanks for the recent donations. 

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Market Update 5/10/2017 - Advanced Trading Techniques

The trend is your friend 

"The trend is your friend", is a term the bulls like to use to help keep them on the right side of the trade, and technically speaking, you can't confirm a reversal until the trend you've been watching actually break, and this speaks for bull markets, as well as bear markets. 

When I think "trend", I think channel trading, because if you can't draw a proper channel, you have no idea where the trend began, or where it ends. Certain trends (especially wave A and wave 1 impulse waves) can trade into a contracting triangle, but long term trends usually continue in an identifiable parallel channel. An extreme selloff in bear market can over-shoot to the downside, before eventually climbing back above the bottom trend-line, in what traders refer to as a shakeout, just as we often see false breakouts overshoot the top of a channel, only to see the price action fall back into a bearish channel, in what is commonly referred to as a "head fake". 

 Wave 5 doesn't always reach the top of the channel, in fact it seldom does, so in the case of the long term channel we're watching on Tech, and on the NASDAQ, that points to the end of wave 3 (in a completed channel), not 5. This goes back to the question, that I was asked in my latest interview with Dale Pinkart, as to why I believe this is the end of wave 3, and not wave 5.    

Channel trading, and Elliott Wave Theory, go hand in hand, and you can find plenty if information on the internet, but searching "channeling elliott wave theory". Some of the best traders use channels exclusively, so you may also want to search, "Channel Trading". 

The 60 min $JNUG chart - offers us a couple good examples of short term trends, seen in the chart below. The first shows a trend reversal, out of a bearish triangle (channel), and the second shows a continuing trend, in a parallel channel. As of this morning, we can't confirm a reversal, and that a good reason to stay away from this leveraged fund, as long as the down-trend continues.   

When it comes to drawing accurate trend line, that's where things can get a little tricky. 2 technicians my draw the trend in 2 separate ways, according to their own personal bias. If you're downright bullish and hoping for a breakout, you may drawing the channel in a way that confirms your outlook, and If you're bearish you may draw the channel differently. Proving all analysis, can be skewed by our personal bias. 

Yesterday it looked like the (5 min) $GDX (miners) might be ready to rally into a bullish wave C, and this morning we see $NUGT up over 3%, yet it's too soon to call a trend reversal. I'd take profits at the open, and wait to confirm it using a 60 min chart. 

Another thing to make note of is the 2 parallel lines (in purple) on NUGT. Any way you slice it the trend remains down, and technicians tend to be early. Don't play with fire.

The tend on the $SPX remains up, but only on the 1 min chart, so we'll be watching that closely at the open. Follow me on twitter @3Xtraders 

Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Market update 5/9/2017

I have an extensive update in the works - I started preparing last week - but my live interview with Dale Pinkart preempted that. Defiantly my best interview so far, because I came prepared, and because of the timing of it. 2018 is going to be a pivotal year for markets.

I'm going to add some charts, which reinforce the long-term outlook I lay out in the video, and expound on some of the talking points, including whether this truly is the end of primary wave (3), and not wave (5), which would market the end of the bull market.

For home work you should, be brushing up on wave 4's, and wave 4 triangles, and basic Elliott Wave Theory, because if you don't know what to expect, you're bound to fail miserably. This is what 90%+ of traders consistently do. They get overly bearish in a crash, and overly bullish on breakouts to new highs, when you should be extremely bearish at the top, and bullish after an extended sell-off.

Question was asked in the interview: "how do we know this isn't the end of wave 5" - assuming this is the end of the rally.

Answer: Elliott Wave count on the Dow confirms the EW count, on the NASDAQ, wave 3 in a bullish channel. Note the range we're trading in and the down arrow. As of today we can't even conform the end of this powerful rally.

Timing the market top 

As far as calling for a major market top in the near term, I'm probably wrong on that, because the sellers are already getting their summer homes ready, and tuning up the kids JetSki's, for Memorial Day. The pro's sure as heck aren't loading up on fat short positions, before they leave for summer vacation. But we are seeing some dumping of stocks, and in the short term we could see more profit taking, and especially in Tech.

Here's a close-up view of the range between 20350 and 21100 on the Dow. Points to a little wave 4 sideways broadening triangle. Could also be an expanding flat, but considering that it's wave 4, I'm leaning towards the triangle pattern. Different chart from the one I pointed to in the video, but the same downside target.

Of course the manipulators added Microsoft to the Dow, and sold the public the, "4 horsemen of tech" story, and this is all about helping the economy, through the rigging of markets, and creating a false sense of (consumer) confidence. You don't see the NY Stock Exchange being rigged like this, because most investors only watch the Dow - a topic for another day.

Short term - the $VIX is stuck at these low levels, and as long as that continues we aren't going to see any big market moves, but we could see the bottom of the range tested at Dow 20350. If we so see a 700 point move on the DOW, are you going to turn bearish, or trust the chart, and the cyclicals?

Very Short Term 

Market continues to press the highs, and usually when you see the market repeatedly press resistance you eventually see it breakout, so we'll keep following the trend (higher), but stay nimble, because we could still see a shakeout, and a 1 min chart can break in a hurry.

Re: The bottom in Oil, and the short term Oil chart I tweeted out yesterday.

Opening bell opens in 3 min.
Thanks for all your support; the donations are much appreciated.
Take care, and stay nimble

Thursday, May 4, 2017

Market Update 5/4/2017 Are we there yet?

"Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?"

We sold into strength, and got a nice little shakeout, as predicted in the previous update - calling the bottom in real time, and the downside target on the DOW within 4 points, yesterday Wed.. Nice little bullish reversal, intra-day. Looks good on a 5 min chart, but is this the bottom.

No sooner than I called it, we saw a sentiment change on a new Healthcare Bill, and Fed speak. Once again proving the charts predict herd behavior.

But is this the end of consolidation?
Probably not. We're not exactly seeing the market off to the races this morning, and continued weakness in Oil doesn't confirm the sector rotation we're looking for. May, is historically selling season, and comments in my twitter feed, are good contrarian indicators. Yesterday you saw someone re-tweet a 5 min $VIX chart, in order to convince himself, that the $VIX had broken out. That kind of nonsense deserves and immediate block.

  1. $VIX resistance is 11. 
  2. May is selling season
  3. Only trust a 5 min chart if you're able to trade that time line, or you're going to be left holding the bag, when the short term charts break. Longer term charts, are way more reliable. 
  4. It's too soon to confirm a continuation of the previous rally.  

Continued caution is warranted, because we're not out of the woods yet.

The Dow continues trade in a range, and there's a good chance we see the 20.650 level tested in wave E of 4. As long as this looks like a broadening triangle (seeing in purple) there's a good chance we're going to see the price action continue to whipsaw in a range.

To add to weight that prediction - The Citigroup Chart

$SPX watch the 2397 area:

Intel $INTC - This one drives the Semiconductor space, so it's worth watching, if not selling short. Lower high is bearish. Wave C's are devastating

Opening bell rings in 5 min.
Take care, AA

Monday, May 1, 2017

Market Update 5/01/2017

Short-Term Bullish - All Things Considered 

  1. Monday is the first day of the month, and that means money has to be put to work. 
  2. The $VIX is showing few signs of life. 
  3. The very short term trend on a 5 min chart remains up. 
  4. The typical short covering we usually see this time of year, including the dash for trash - going into the start of the Summer (Memorial Day) starts now. This could be good for beaten down sectors like energy, and lagging sector biotech, and a few beaten down names, but not necessarily the broader market. Sector rotation possible. 
  5. The $SPX fell just short of making a new recent high (2400 on the S&P), but this doesn't look like a reversal. Looks more like bullish consolidation (very short term). 
The recent high I'm talking about (above) is the 2400 top on the $SPX, I called so precisely last time, and that's worth mentioning, because I didn't see anyone else get that call right, and if you appreciate what I do, then I suggest you make a donation to my PayPal. I started this update Sat, and finished it up this morning; took 3+ hours in total, to give you an idea of the time involved; not even including countless ours charting every sector, and tracking markets in real time. I'd like to continue bringing these updates to you, and that requires a lot of due diligence on my part. Please do your part, by helping to support this website. To those who already donate to my PayPal (linked), thank you. 

Getting back to my bullet-points: Re: #5. Technically speaking, we can't confirm a continuing bull run, because the SPX hasn't broken out, yet when you see new highs within reach, another breakout is the probable outcome 99% of the time. Not sure about this time. Financials look like they're in a bear market, but that's not to say we won't see them continue to rally higher (in the short term), before we see the reversal. 
Re: #1: We could see MM's (money managers) continue to sit on their hands for a few more days, but that money still needs to be put to work before they go on vacation. 

Very Short term: 
Good chance we could see the $VIX make another run at Friday's high, and even break above the tiny triangle pattern I so correctly predicted on Friday. This turned out to be my best call of the week? A 9% move on the $VIX?! Pretty dull market, when I have to examine the $VIX, using a 5 min chart.
Note: The purpose of tracking the $VIX is to measure fear in the market. I don't recommend trading the $VIX, but I know traders are going to trade it nevertheless.     

Can the $VIX break out, yes (if the tiny triangle is only wave A) and there's nothing the, "Powers that Be", would like more, than to shake out the weak hands, and set the bear trap in oil, energy, biotech, before putting money to work, because that doubles the number of buyers (when you factor in short covering), so I suspect we're going to see another shake out before we're off to the races again. The more retail bears, the more short covering into the summer. 

So we've looked at market sentiment (the $VIX), cyclicality, and the probably of outcomes - based on past experience - now let's look at the charts. 

Very short term 

Consolidation remains sideways, to down in the very near term (looking at 1 - 5 min, and even 30 min charts), and that points to a sub-minuette "wave 4" (bullish). You might have seen me Tweet this EW count on several short term charts last week. I'm talking about sub-minueete wave 4, and the reason it's called sub-minueete, is that it's not even visible on longer term charts. That means we should see one more move higher in wave 5. Note: Wave 5 may not even make a new recent high. It could truncated, falling falling short of the wave 3 level - where the market gapped up 2 days in a row last week. Momentum is weak, compared to all previous rallys, over the past several months, and that's because the smart money is moving to the sidelines. That points to a major top coming. In short: I'm only looking for a tiny rally higher, before we see a reversal, and a possible sector rotation. I know that's a bold call. and a confusing one (for some), but we saw financials and tech lead this rally, and they should be the first to roll over. At the same time, energy is trading at the bottom of the range (completing a wave 5 of C).  

First here's the tiny wave 4 I'm talking about, as seen on the 5 min Dow chart below. You see the dow breaking out above my pink support line this morning, and a slightly higher high in wave 5 looks likely. Target looks like 21130 - 50, but I'm not sure wave iv is finished. We'll know shortly  

SPX - also seen breaking out (above my orange line) this morning, in what looks like a tiny wave "c" (of B). 2392.50 looks like a good target, where we could see a sharp reversal into a powerful wave C. That would be enough to set the bear trap. Note the rally to 2392.68 last week (Sold). 

Alternate EW count: Whipsawing in a range. 

I'm not crazy about the candlestick analysis, and the broadening range seen below is still in play. Another reason why I'm bearish in the intermediate term.  Until the market actually breaks out to new highs, extra caution is warranted. This either looks like a head-fake wave "D", or c (of head-fake wave B, as I've already pointed out.  

So I'd be looking to sell into strength, and not to get caught in a bear trap heading into the Summer. I'n the mean time; I'll be watching this market like a hawk, as always.