Page menu

Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Market update 5/9/2017

I have an extensive update in the works - I started preparing last week - but my live interview with Dale Pinkart preempted that. Defiantly my best interview so far, because I came prepared, and because of the timing of it. 2018 is going to be a pivotal year for markets.

I'm going to add some charts, which reinforce the long-term outlook I lay out in the video, and expound on some of the talking points, including whether this truly is the end of primary wave (3), and not wave (5), which would market the end of the bull market.

For home work you should, be brushing up on wave 4's, and wave 4 triangles, and basic Elliott Wave Theory, because if you don't know what to expect, you're bound to fail miserably. This is what 90%+ of traders consistently do. They get overly bearish in a crash, and overly bullish on breakouts to new highs, when you should be extremely bearish at the top, and bullish after an extended sell-off.

Question was asked in the interview: "how do we know this isn't the end of wave 5" - assuming this is the end of the rally.

Answer: Elliott Wave count on the Dow confirms the EW count, on the NASDAQ, wave 3 in a bullish channel. Note the range we're trading in and the down arrow. As of today we can't even conform the end of this powerful rally.

Timing the market top 

As far as calling for a major market top in the near term, I'm probably wrong on that, because the sellers are already getting their summer homes ready, and tuning up the kids JetSki's, for Memorial Day. The pro's sure as heck aren't loading up on fat short positions, before they leave for summer vacation. But we are seeing some dumping of stocks, and in the short term we could see more profit taking, and especially in Tech.

Here's a close-up view of the range between 20350 and 21100 on the Dow. Points to a little wave 4 sideways broadening triangle. Could also be an expanding flat, but considering that it's wave 4, I'm leaning towards the triangle pattern. Different chart from the one I pointed to in the video, but the same downside target.

Of course the manipulators added Microsoft to the Dow, and sold the public the, "4 horsemen of tech" story, and this is all about helping the economy, through the rigging of markets, and creating a false sense of (consumer) confidence. You don't see the NY Stock Exchange being rigged like this, because most investors only watch the Dow - a topic for another day.

Short term - the $VIX is stuck at these low levels, and as long as that continues we aren't going to see any big market moves, but we could see the bottom of the range tested at Dow 20350. If we so see a 700 point move on the DOW, are you going to turn bearish, or trust the chart, and the cyclicals?

Very Short Term 

Market continues to press the highs, and usually when you see the market repeatedly press resistance you eventually see it breakout, so we'll keep following the trend (higher), but stay nimble, because we could still see a shakeout, and a 1 min chart can break in a hurry.

Re: The bottom in Oil, and the short term Oil chart I tweeted out yesterday.

Opening bell opens in 3 min.
Thanks for all your support; the donations are much appreciated.
Take care, and stay nimble

No comments:

Post a Comment