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Monday, December 21, 2015

Stock Market update - 'Twas week before Christmas... - 12/21/15

'Twas the week before Christmas, when all through the house

not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse...  

Expecting quiet markets this week, going into the holidays, and as they say, "never (sell) short a dull market".
We saw higher volatility on Quadruple Witching (OPEX) Friday, with negligible breakouts on the $VIX. Not a big deal. Fear remains contained, and limited to a handful of stocks such as $AAPL, which helped drag the DOW to a slightly lower recent low, going into Friday's close. Again, not a big deal.
You don't see financials making new lows.
Looks like nothing more than a harmless wave "B" pullback...  

Now Dasher! now Dancer! now Prancer and Vixen. On Apple, on Oil on $RIG, and I can't think of a word that to rhymes...!

To the top of the porch! to the top of the wall!

Now dash away! dash away! dash away all!"

$RIG pulls back to support and we like pullbacks.

 The Dow pulls back.

$AAPL is a buy at the bottom of this pattern.  Catch my drift?

If you watched any of the financial shows over the weekend, they're all calling Friday's sell-off a result of the 1/4 point raise on the short term lending rate, while ignoring the fact that the market rallied on that news, on Thursday. In fact this rate hike has been priced in for a year or more! 
Be carful what you watch, because putting your faith in false narratives, and trading on emotion, is a good to sabotage your trade. It's gotten to the point where I watch as little news as possible, and don't worry too much about what other traders are doing.
As far as a Santa Clause rally goes:  

A wink of his eye and a twist of his head

Soon gave me to know I had nothing to dread

I heard him exclaim, as he drove out of sight

“Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good night!”

I remain bullish well into the beginning of the new year - as the charts posted above suggest.

The bearish energy trade has worked to our advantage, but I'm expecting a tradable rally, if not a major reversal. We could also see a massive short squeeze in Oil.  I could attach more charts and indicators to this blog, but I've already tweeted 930 charts in Dec., and that's just a small percentage of the chart views I'm normally watching any given month.  
My public charts page is back up, and that's a good place to watch the market play out in real time. Market pulled back to 2044 as predicted, and when that support broke that was your cue to sell. Same goes for 2020 support, as we saw that break down... but the pattern remains - sideways - with a good chance of whipsawing back to the top of the range.  Watch $SPX 2000 at Monday's opening bell.
Your continued financial support helps me keep these charts coming to you. If I've helped you please don't hesitate to spread the good cheer using the PayPal link at the upper left-hand menu on this page.
Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!