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Monday, December 16, 2019

Market Update 12/16/2019 More Red Flags

Last week we finally saw the $NYSE retest the highs of 2018, led by high flyers like Merck, which have become extremely overbought at this point. If you look at the percentage of stocks which have reached all time new highs, compared to stocks which have reached all time new lows, as evidenced by the $NYHL, this is the most extreme level we've seen since the end of 2017.

We also saw defensive stocks like Colgate up on Friday, that's another red flag. We saw the same thing in Australia, as they continue to deny their economy is collapsing.   See: Coalition cuts forecast surplus as budget update reveals economic slump 

Short term: This morning we continue to see Money Managers continue to chase performance, and the short term charts continue to work.  

$SPX 1 min view - futures are pointing at 3189. 

$SPX 10 min view - trend remains up. Possible 3200 target before OPEX Friday.  

DOW - see the chart blogged on Friday. 1. We didn't see a breakout above the 18,222 level.... 
2. 28000 is psychological support, but I don't like the doji (reversal) candle it closed on.   

A lot of Elliott Wavers think this is a bullish breakout in wave 3, but it's just not powerful enough. I think wave 2 maybe? We'll have to see what the pullback looks like. 

$Oil - seeing oil up slightly. It's kind of risky selling oil on light holiday volume, but I think I'll add this $USO chart to the public charts area. The bulls stop is 12.25. Maybe is just holds up for another week or 3. 

$GOLD: $GLD continues to trend down. 

$HUI - The 2025 level looks like it's going to become the stop-hunt on the Gold Bugs index. 
There are a couple other miner charts in the public charts area. The trend looks like it remains up on the weekly $GDX, but the shorter term charts, continue to consolidate lower. 

I have a bunch of charts to add to the public charts area, and need to get it better organized, ahead of the holidays. You should have all the targets you need, including $VIX breakout targets, laid out in the past few blogs.  

If the $VIX isn't going to breakout, ahead of the holidays, then I don't see much reason to watch this market every day, and I may take some time off.... but we could see some profit taking, ahead of the holidays. If the $VIX breaks out, and we start seeing support levels break, then I'll be back.... 

Happy Holidays AA

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