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Thursday, December 19, 2019

Market Update 12/19/2019 - Smart Money vs Fast Money

I consider the Fast Money the dumb money, so Fast Money on CNBC might want to think about changing their name.

$INDU (DOW) - Money flow had been out since Thanksgiving, and this rally seems to be stalling out. 28,200 becomes the stophunt, after this weeks little breakout. Looks like a suckers rally, although I suppose stocks could hold up going into OPEX.

Speaking of CNBC: James Cramer claims the House Impeachment fiasco doesn't the matter to markets, and uses the impeachment of Bill Clinton as an example. That's not even in the same ball park, since there were actual crimes involved....

There's a risk more evidence comes out in the Senate Trial, and the RINOs' (Republicans In Name Only), who have never stood behind Trump, go ahead with removal.... but what think is more likely is that Trump is reelected and the radicals, riot, and "shut it down", and organize work strikes. Either way, there's a ton of risk here, but everything is on hold until 2020, the Senate Impeachment Trial, Brexit, China, USMCA, etc.

This morning we're seeing futures down slightly, as Europe - including Germany - is seen rolling over. We're also seeing the $USD spiking, on reports that Sweden is don't with their negative rates experiment.

$NSAQ - this is socialist countries in Europe buying into a fleeting tech rally. Think I'll add this chart to public charts area, so we know exactly where the panic starts - below the blue line.

The 3X Europe ETF hit my target perfectly this week btw.

I've updated the Public Chart area, so be sure to check it out. I'm planning to add the above Dow chart this morning, and probably a short term Russell 2000 chart, after the Russell $VIX washed out to support, and the long term chart looks dreadful. I'm thinking risk off starts there, but everything looks toppy here, even FAANG stocks.

#FNGU is the 3X FAANG bull for example.

Oil and Oil Service Stocks: See the new WTI Oil chart in the Public Charts area. That chart 10x more reliable than the $USO, which is what more traders use. Res is $61, which is where it ended yesterday. If you're bullish that would be your breakout target, but I'm not bullish Oil.

$GUSH is looking very toppy. The 3X leveraged bear is $DRIP.

$SPX  Short term - I've already gone to a 30 min chart on the #1 chart located in the public charts area.

$SPX 1 min chart broke trend yesterday afternoon, so the speculators are lost.
The 10 min chart is still working, so I'll replace it to the #1 position. If it breaks, and the $VIX breaks out, we'll go to the 30 min chart. I have a 3018 target I tweeted out this morning, so...

One more thing: I mentioned the $SPLV last week, and I was wrong when I said it's full of big name.
After doing a little research, it turns out, that it's more of a defensive fund. It's mostly Utilities, and Financials, and REITs. It's not the critical indicator I thought it was, and it can certainly continue higher, in a downturn. 

I'm out of time
Good luck, and follow me on twitter for the latest, up to the minute, Analysis.



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