Page menu

Thursday, December 5, 2019

Market Update 12/5/2019 Market Breaks Out; Right On Schedule

Seeing market futures being manipulated higher again this morning, on Headlines out of the UK: My European chart is proprietary, but I can tell you Europe is leading... and that's where Money Managers are looking for value.

The breaking news: 

1. General election news – live: Boris Johnson’s last-ditch tax cuts unveiled ‘in fear of Labour closing gap in polls’ - story linked

2. Four Brexit Party MEPs are set to quit this morning and urge voters to back Tories - story linked 

 Master market manipulator, Jim Cramer (if you read his books) was conspicuously seen on the set of Fast Money yesterday. Market breaks support, and the plunge protection team comes in, and repairs the chart. I have no doubt he's been working behind the scenes, since the crash of '08, when he called out the Federal Reserve. I think practically nobody has more experience rigging markets, than James Cramer. 

I think the powers that be were caught with their pants down when the $VIX broke out, but they're right back at it - rigging volatility. It's easy...

Monday, we saw a surprise to the downside, which broke support, followed by a gap up, on Tuesday. Trap doors were sprung, but now you see them closed again. If you're watching the public charts area, you know what I'm talking about.   

$NDX See the black line (support), and the blue trap door (closed). That means, if you went short on Monday, you're trapped.  

I suspect the short sellers are going to remain trapped for a while. The bears crying in my twitter feed are contrarians, who obviously don't follow this blog. "Never sell a dull market", for the hundredth time. 

Think the market can't be held up for a few more weeks? 

1. We got the FED announcement just before Dec. OPEX, then the Christmas break, and nobody wants to put on massive short positions going into the holidays. 

2. The bulls aren't going to take profits until 2020, because they don't want to have to pay taxes on there massive gains.  

*3. Sell-off 's start off slowly, and snap-back rallies take time to complete. 

*Let's use $TSLA as an example, since I called the recent reversal. Let's assume it's already in a bear market. See wave 1. Wave 2 takes time to complete, in order to form a bearish channel. That could take as long as January.... 

The DOW looks like it's going to fill the gap at the open, and possibly break out above 27750. That would become the next support level. You can see where it was driven back above my green support line yesterday.       

That's a bullish looking chart, and a path to 29k by March, if MM's are forced to chase performance.

I do think we're going to get another little downside surprise, but see the trend the chart below.

$SPLV - $SPX - low volatility ETF -
This one has been consolidating in a range for 2+ months, so it's no wonder the $SPX is struggling.

$ALLK - This was an awesome call yesterday, and I was able to chart it in real time, in about 1 min, and find the upside target.

I think the rally in energy is about to fizzle, but it's gold miners, I'm really bearish on.

$NUGT - Seeing a down-turned megaphone pattern on this 3x miner bull. I'd trade into $DUST, and use the 30 level on $NUGT as your stop. If $NUGT breaks out, that would be bullish.

Follow the public charts at the link provided in the side menu.
I'll be charting the open in real time, as usual.


No comments:

Post a Comment