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Monday, January 30, 2023

Market Update 1/28/23 - Trade Secrets, and Top Secret Trades Revealed

 Here is it, almost the end of the month already, and I'm up early on a Saturday morning, still getting caught up on charting. 

This is what it takes if you want to win consistently: 

1. Hard Work. 2. Perseverance. 3. Tuning out the noise, and thinking outside the box.   

I could certainly add a few more things to the list, such as proper money management, which takes discipline, and nimbleness/ prowess, but let's focus on the first 3.... 

1. Hard Work: This not only means taking the time to learn every aspect of technical charting, but it means putting it into practice. You only get out of it what you put into it. To think that luck is going to carry you to the finish line, is a pipe dream.  

No doubt most traders are not going to spend their Saturday morning, updating charts, and I've already been at this all week. I have over 1000 chart views working at any given time - most of which, I keep close to my chest btw - and this helps me stay 1 step ahead of the game. If you want to win, you have to be willing to put in the hours.

 For me, this means getting up every morning at 4:00, to get a good read on the market, while most traders are waiting for the boob tube to tell them what to think. It also means putting in some extra hours, when necessary.  

And now that half my audience has left, let's move on to #2. 

2. Perseverance: 

Never Give Up Sure you're going to be early on many calls, but don't let that discourage you!

Charts not working? Then try a different technique. Check the candlestick analysis on a weekly chart. Think outside the box. How long did it take to find the bearish reversal in Natural Gas. It would've been easy to give up, when it still hadn't corrected in Nov. 

NatGas - breaks key support Nov. 28th 

Seek And Ye Shall Find... 

It's amazing what I found last week just updating my mining folder, for the first time in several months, and the same goes for China... I've spent literally years studying the China charts, and this takes perseverance

Speaking of China: How many times have you heard it mentioned that, "China has been trading sideways in a bear market, for the past 13 years"? Yeah, like never, because that story doesn't sell newspapers, and because the rats at Bloomberg still believe Asia is going to lead the global economy. 


$SSEC Shanghai Stock Exchange in a range for the past 14 years, after a failed breakout attempt in 2015. 

1. One obvious thing about the above chart is that the machines are buying the 200 month moving average. 

2. The only difference between the Shanghai chart, and the Hang Seng... is that the false breakout in Hong Kong didn't occur until 2018, and the 200 month ma average actually broke, last year, and that - more than anything else - explains the panic selling we saw in early 2022. 

3. As home work: If you think you have a good grasp of Elliot theory, or any other charting technique - for that matter - spend an hour trying to figure out where China is going, and good luck, with that! 

I'm sure I'll be alerting to China again in the near future, so be sure to subscribe Newsletter! 

 Getting back to my Top 3 Trade Secrets 

  3. Tune out the noise, and think outside the box! This is fresh in my mind, after Friday's trade, where all Bloomberg could seem to focus on was the big earnings miss from $INTC Intel. Did that story help you catch a nice 3% rally in consumer discretionary? No, in fact, I'll bet it was never even mentioned! 

a. Turn off the boob tube, or do what I do, watch with the sound off. The financial fake news has become even worse, since they started substituting opinions from people on webcam, for fact, and pushing a - so called - woke political agenda, not to mention the lousy camera work, and unnecessary sound effects. They call the TV, an "idiot box", for a reason!  

b. Tune out social media, much of which is driven by highly emotional traders, and bots. Sure, I use it to kill time, and blow off steam, some times, but I disregard 90% of what I see... 

c. Run a stock screener, and watch different sectors, and event FX for an alternative trade 

 Top Secret Trades Revealed

I don't usually reveal my trades, but I did reveal a couple good ones... on Friday. 

Consumer Discretionary 

The Russell 2000 - 

Natural Gas  - 

After remaining bearish on Natural Gas, and trying warn retail investors, that they were playing with fire - going into the end of 2022 - I finally decided to do some bottom picking.  


I don't own this one, but it's a good chart, and a good example of just how priced out, a recession is.   

And last but not least; another engineered short squeeze, in shares of American Express. 

 $AXP - see where the bid was raised, just ahead of weekly OPEX. Typical for the type of manipulation I see in the market, on a regular bases. This is the new normal. 

Of course. we are likely going to see a recession, and the fed has all but guaranteed it.  

Next time you hear the fake news talk about, "a soft landing", tune that out. 

Take Care, AA 

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