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Friday, January 20, 2023

Market Update Friday Jan. OPEX

 As I always say: Markets are rigged, according to Options Expiration Dates, and even though I called the reversal that we saw on Wed., I wasn't even factoring in a perfectly timed re-balancing, just ahead of Jan. OPEX, but in hindsight, I think a re-balancing - ahead of Jan. OPEX - is exactly what we've seen over the past couple days. 

Of course, this re-balencing is to ensure that the majority of Options expire worthless, as the bulls were betting on the 4000 target on the $SPX, and this is what they get, for not paying insurance on those bets, in the form of Put options. Just goes to show, you can fool some of the people some of the time - by hammering the $VIX every day - but the house always wins. 

This morning we see Market Futures pinned, just below the 50 day moving average, and I suspect the market is going to remain pinned in a tight range, just so that the PUT Options, which where put on just yesterday, also expire worthless! This is what I call, typical, "Wall Street fuckery".

 Question from yesterday's update: "Is this a bearish reversal"?

 That appears to be the case, after yesterday's confirmation, and since I called this reversal (precisely), I'm not about to get wishy-washy, and start back-peddling, yet these things take a little time to be confirmed, and strange things can happen around OPEX. I could still be wrong.... we could even see a snap-back retest the highs. That's right I have a higher target, up my sleeve, and an alternative plan in place, just in case... 

Speaking of getting it wrong

Fast Money's Carter Worth's call for a correction to the 3300 level, followed by his call for a smaller pullback, a few weeks ago, can only be described as an "Epic Fail". Before that, he predicted that energy would lead the bull market, and then he got wishy-washy, and turned tail and ran.... 

Adding Carter Worth to the Wall of Shame 

Is it possible Carter Braxton Worth could still be right on his call for a correction to the 3300 level? No. I already thoroughly debunked his chart, in an earlier blog, and furthermore, if the 3300 level is taken out, then we're probably going lower, much lower. Perhaps he's looking at the 2020 high, as support but he's pointing to a channel that doesn't exist!  

Picking up from where I left off yesterday: 

Re: CNBC Fast Money 

Let's Take a Closer Look at CNBC Fast Money's other hero, Christopher Verrone 

I don't know how this guy manages to get on CNBC, and Bloomberg, on consecutive days, but somehow he does it! He also remains consistent, and on point. 

His point, that tech is not going to lead a new bull market is well received, but I find the idea that copper and gold, and miners, including such names as $BHP, $RIO, Fremont, and Glencore, and the like, are leading the next (stealth) bull market, utterly preposterous. He also claims that these names are breaking out of a range, which is a downright lie. Sure BHP continues to test the highs, but where is your sector chart?! 

Look, I know you have CNBC pro subscriptions to sell, but let's at least have some integrity!  

Here's my problem with Verrone. and most other TV technical analysts. They draw very vague charts - which aren't even worth re-creating - and point to some broad range, that isn't even relevant. 

If you watched Verrone on CNBC this week, comparing the range on the $SPX to miners, then you know what I'm talking about.

One thing I like about Verrone, is that he thinks outside the box, and so far he's been right on the rally in metals, but like I reiterated on Twitter yesterday, it's not, "breaking out of a range", yet...     

Market Prediction based on the EW Count  

I found this on Trading View, and the EW Count on the chart below, roughly matches my short term view, which I find pretty impressive! This guy may not be much to look at, and neither is his website, but he knows how to count Elliott Waves! 

Maikisch Trading View

As far as for me starting a membership site? I may move the blog, to a new platform, just in order to get away from the blogger platform, and increase my SEO (Search Engine Optimization), but for now, I'm happy with continuing to provide the Free Weekly News Letter, and blogging, for my own enjoyment. If that turns into something more, than so be it.  

Take Care, AA 

P.S. If you watch the Fast Money show, even just for laughs, then you may know they recently pumped ULTA - down 2.39% yesterday.  

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