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Thursday, January 19, 2023

Market Update 1/19/12 - Bearish Market Reversal?

 Well, we saw quite a little reversal confirmed yesterday, around the time that it was disclosed that, fully vaccinated, and boosted, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, has contracted Covid.  


What amazed me is how quickly, CNBC, and Bloomberg, buried the story  

Meanwhile the lame stream media fails to report on excess deaths...

 Related Story: 

BBC criticized for letting cardiologist ‘hijack’ interview with false Covid jab claim

Looks like another attempted cover-up to me, otherwise why would they try to sensor open debate? If there is no excess death rate, or there is a plausible explanation... then why not report on it? 

At least I no longer need to worry about being kicked off Twitter for asking common sense questions. 
Is this really happening, and we're not being told? It's hard to know what to believe anymore! 

Excess deaths are soaring as health-care systems wobble

Getting back to the market

I think I know who's behind the selling 

The usual suspects 

Caught this guy on CNBC fast money last night

On further inspection I found the CNBC boiler room crew working Twitter boards

I have a lot more to say about the bull case for metals, and miners, and the fast money crew using the NBC/CNBC network to pump their own positions, but gotta save this for another time. 

All I can tell you is to stay away from the metal trades, especially copper 

Today's Trade 

Technically speaking, I'm going to be watching the 50 day moving average on the $SPX, and I still think the market is poised to hold up into OPEX, and possibly even into the FOMC meeting, around the end of the month. Of course, if the 50 day ma, is taken out at the open, that's going to trigger more selling. 

Why am I not expecting markets to plummet right here 

One Word; "Superstition". Wall Street believes if January ends strong then that sets the tone for the entire year. 

My Outlook is somewhat bearish short term, as I explained in yesterday's update, but I'm actually pretty bullish going into the 1st half of the year, and possibly longer. 

I think the fed is going to wimp out, and take a break, and Wall Street is going to see that as a green light... 

2022 was a lousy year, and that sets up for a rebound in 2023

Something New

Something I didn't notice until just ahead of yesterday's opening bell - and I'm already struggling to see how I'm going to be able to stay on my game with the distraction of running a membership website (more on this at the end of this update) - I was thumbing through some charts ahead of yesterday's open, and found that the $NYSE has run to new recent highs, while the $SPX continues to lag. 

$NYSE - looks like a bearish reversal at this point, but I was kind of taken aback by this breakout.  

That's a head scratcher 

Final point

As I mentioned earlier, I only found that the $NYSE was breaking out, because I had a little extra time one my hands, and I was thumbing through some charts, and that's part of what keeps me on my game, because I don't remain focused on any one thing. I'm afraid that if I start a membership website, I'm going to end up spreading myself too thin, and my trading is going to suffer.

I suppose it will all work itself out in the end, but I'm thinking I'm going to need help running a website, or maybe I'm better off joining a hedge fund. Open to any suggestions... 

Take Care, AA  

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