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Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Comparing Today's Market To The Market Crashes of '08, & 2000

 Comparing Today's Market To The Crash of '08 & '00 

It seems like all I do lately is dispel rumors, and disinformation, so why should today be any different..?  

Just yesterday I was saying: One of my Top 5 Trading Tips is: Cutting through the BS: We are truly living in the age of deception, and it's not easy to remove yourself from that, when you're constantly being bombarded by fake news, and social media.

On Twitter 

On YouTube

I've even seen Glen Beck, try to make this ridiculous comparison, and I've cued up the youtube video below, so you can view it. 


I traded the '08 crash, and I've spent countless hours studying every aspect of it, and so I knew there was no comparison, before I even started comparing charts, but seeing is believing... 

The Timelines don't match 

First I attempted to overlay the 2 charts, but I didn't have much luck lining things up, and that's because the timelines don't match. I've mentioned this several times over the years, on Twitter, and on this blog; the crash of '08, actually started in '07, but the selling didn't accelerate until '08. That's a 2 year time period, and we're only 9 months into this selloff.  

$SPX overlay - 2008 crash in red. Current market in Blue. 

Market (in red) peaks out in October, of 07, whereas today's $SPX (in blue) peaked out around the end of 2021.  The following declines seem to match up pretty well - as far as the timeline for the first year - which I find rather interesting!  

We even see a retest of the lows in March, of 08, and Oct. 2022, respectively. That's funny because I've seen plenty of technicians, including even CNBC's. "Chart Master" (sense the sarcasm), Carter Worth, say, they don't believe in the double bottom target, when that's exactly what we saw in '08! 

 But Wait There's More! 

Although I wasn't actively trading in 2000, we see the exact same thing on the NASDAQ chart - a retest of the lows, or, as I like to call it, "the shakeout before the breakout"!  

$COMPQ - retest of the lows, at the 3227 level, followed by a tremendous summer rally, back above trend! Of course the selloff of 2000 was rather abrupt, and that's why everyone calls it the crash of 2000, but the market always bounces back pretty hard, after the first leg down, because everyone is still bullish, and so they buy it like they're buying the dip, as usual. It's not until the 3rd leg down that 90% of investors are wiped out!  

What this all likely means for today's market, is that even if we are in a bear market - which can't even be confirmed - we're just getting started, and way overdue for a massive rally.   

I'm really surprised at just how bearish everyone seems to be today, but I think we're living in a different time, with so much disinformation, and media saturation.   

There are also plenty of sharks in the water, so don't believe every chart you see on social media, or TV.

Take Care, AA  

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