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Friday, April 15, 2022

Weekly Wrap-up - 4/15/22 - Good Friday, after another manipulated Option Expiration

 Yesterday was a Thursday Options Expiration, leading into a holiday, so it was a pretty sure thing that Energy would continue to hold up, and that included Oil. I caught a nice 16% rally in the $UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Leveraged Crude Oil Bull, and alerted to that trade just before Thursday's close. 

Again it was an easy prediction to make, considering that Every Options Expiration date is rigged, and especially when you're trading into a holiday. 

So, the trend continued into the end of the week, as expected: 

Stocks remained pinned in a range, and Energy remains pinned at recent highs. 

$USD ended the session slightly higher 

NatGas continues to hold up, and could even go higher, considering most traders are on vacation, but that also means that if Natural Gas crashes, there is going to be the lack of an underlying bid, meaning if you place a market order, rather than a limit order, you could end up selling at a huge discount to the asking price. Even Thurdsay, I found the bid ask on the $UCO, like 50 cents apart, and took 10 minutes or so to get my asking price. In a market crash, you don't have the same luxury....   

$NatGas - keeping close eye on this over the next few weeks. Looks like an emotional wave E throw-over. E of primary wave (B).   

A Wave B triangle is a counter-trend rally, and a wave E usually ends in a violent reversal, so that should be easy to confirm. 

NatGas: I have several alternate wave counts including a powerful wave C, which probably makes even more sense than wave E, because the count is easily divided into 5 waves


$NATGAS - I have over 20 NatGas charts working, so I have 100% confidence I will find the reversal, just as I did in BRENT crude.  

BRENT Crude Oil - now trading in a predictable suckers rally. It can go hire, but hit resistance on some short term charts, on Friday. It needs to consolidate...    

NatGas - Looking at the short term trend, it's obviously already overshot the top of the channel, just as Oil recently did, and we all know how that ended. 

So Energy continues to hold up, but if equities are going to rally into the summer, then I believe the smart money will be taking profits in commodities, very shortly. 

Another thing that continues to hold up is Canada, which despite the recent interest rate hike - something that was totally ignored by the lame stream media - Canadian Stocks continue to trade at all time highs. 

Reminder: If you're trading materials or commodities, or anything in that realm, you should also be watching the $TSX  

$TSX Canada 10 min. view 

Canada is doomed - The fed has already given the crooked banks plenty of advanced warning, so that they can plan the take-down of global markets, just as they did the covid crash - weeks/months in advance. They knew markets were going to correct regardless... as well as I did.   

The commodities based materials sector

In case you missed this suggestion in my Twitter feed last week  

Another economy that's closely tied to commodities and specifically mining 

Australia! Massive broadening top, as the power structure, with the help of the fed, has in desperation, has managed to keep the bubble inflated a little longer. 14 years later markets are in far worse shape... but no doubt they have stalled long enough to help them prepare for a collapse, and an authoritarian state. We saw some of those drills run during the covid lock downs.    

The Catalyst 

I'm mentioned climate collapse as a likely catalyst for what happens next, and Australia's climate is already at the tipping point.   

Now imagine a scenario where mining continues at full speed, while the rest of the economy grinds to a halt. That's entirely possible with the imminent collapse of the Ozone layer. 

Imminent Ozone Layer Collapse, A Dire Warning From A Former NASA Contract Engineer 

Why You Don’t Hear About the Hole in the Ozone Layer Anymore

wish I had better news on this good Friday, but it looks like the covid lock-downs were just a dress rehearsal for the coming climate disaster, and I'm anticipating deflation, not inflation.  

I would still expect one last hurrah from US markets. Once tech finds a bottom, and traders return from vacation, money must be put to work.    

Have a great weekend, AA 

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