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Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Market Update 11/16/2022 - closing in on Friday Nov. Options Expiration (OPEX), with only 3 days to go....

Low volatility continues, and since it looks like I have an excellent handle on the current market, this looks like a good opportunity to take some time off! I may still provide an update in the morning, and I'll defiantly continue sending out weekly news letters, but I have plenty of other things I should be focused on as the holidays get closer. I already have some remodeling projects lined up, and I figure I got 2 weeks, until we return to normal trading around Monday Dec. 5th. 

If you're focused on the shorter term, then you should already know who reports on Thursday, just ahead of OPEX. One stock the Fast Money boiler room crew is watching is, "Palo Alto Networks", and for good reason - Options Expiration! 


One of the most important discoveries I've made - charting, trading, and watching a lot of news over the past 15, 20, 30 years, is that markets are manipulated according to timeline. They're cyclical! This is why I have to laugh, when newbies ask for timelines, because they're in some kind of hurry... 

When you're thinking timelines, you should be looking out several weeks, not days. 


Since you can't trade time lines accurately without knowing what's coming up on the calendar; your homework, is to figure out how many days of normal trading we can expect, after Dec. 5th - when normal trading resumes (after the thanksgiving break) - until the end of the year, and how Dec. Options Expiration, will likely be affected. That's a tall order.      

Few traders are focused on the real reason the stock market seems so resilient, because they believe the market trades according to fundamentals - for instance on better than expected earnings. 

I knew earnings would be the catalyst for this rally, several weeks ago, but earnings are only being used as an excuse to drive markets higher, and that's why the lame stream media remains focused on it, instead of the fear of what the fed might do next, which is all they covered back in August.     

This morning the lame stream media is focused on:

1. Trump announcing his candidacy (last night), and trying to paint a gloomy picture ... because the fascists who control the MSM, prefer the corporatocracy, to a true Democracy. This is the same reason they hate Elon Musk, and the idea of freedom of speech, in social media; as the fascists want to maintain their grip on the official narrative. The truth is whatever their, fact checkers say it is, and anyone who questions... can be shouted down, banned, or defunded.

Speaking of the official narrative     

2. This morning the MSM is quietly walking back their comments on the supposed, Russian Missile Attack, that upset markets yesterday! 

Luckily I can usually smell a BS news story from a mile away, and this one was easier to spot than most.... 

 3. Earnings - Yesterday is was Home Depot, today it's Lowe's   

Lowe's is a good example of a stock that remains in a bubble, but certainly could continue to bounce back, in the near term. It's just that time of year, where short sellers are decreasing their positions, and manipulation is running rampant. 

What happens in 2023, the market could care less. It's all about getting paid on those options, after selling a bearish story to the public, all summer. 

Watch the $VIX 

As I said in Monday's Update 

 Watch the most manipulated index of all, the $VIX 

The $VIX was taken down below the previous low, on that good CPI number, leaving a big gap behind. I really doubt it's going to be allowed to even break out above 26.   


$VIX manipulation documented, using a 10 min chart 

Only idiots, running some hedge funds, would come up with the idea of manipulating the 10 min $VIX chart, and there's nothing I'd like more than to see this blow up in their faces! 

I think there's actually a good chance of that, but like I said yesterday, the market is unlikely to crash here, and even if it does, traders will be away from their desks next week. 

Take Care, AA 

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