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Monday, November 21, 2022

Market Update Monday 11/21/22 - Thanksgiving week

 As I pointed out in the most recent Weekly News Letter, it was no surprise to see the market engineers, continue to hold the market up, going into Friday November OPEX. This was so that they would get paid on the bullish Call Options they no doubt purchased back in early Oct.  

I think the biggest gains were seen in Chinese stocks, such as Alibaba $BABA   

 $BABA - see the massive white candle, 1 day before Options Expiration 

It obviously wasn't just China, which helped lift markets. Countless names have been driven back to, or above resistance, as short sellers were forced to cover their positions, ahead of the holidays; Names like Honeywell, Mondelez (formerly Kraft foods), and Caterpillar.  

The retail space has seen massive gains, since the Oct. lows!  

Sketchers $SKX - for instance - up 25% 

Have you charted Walmart lately $WMT - up nearly 50% off the June lows. It's now trading only $9 off the all time highs! 


Energy didn't lead last weeks rally, yet the Call options - purchased earlier in the year - continue to pay. 

I do think there's a good chance we could finally see profit taking in energy, now that OPEX has passed.  


Oil tanked, after breaking below the bottom of the pattern, we were watching on Thursday

Called in real time: 

I actually saw the bearish set-up ahead of time:

This morning, I hear the MSM that Oil is set to rally here, so the TV traders must have already taken profits. 

Here's CNBC seen declaring victory on Friday, only 1 day after Fast Money said they are bearish oil. 

I'm not really sure what to make of that, and as I pointed out last week, the bullish trend on Oil certainly isn't broken 

Where is the market going from here? 

We're going back to fill some gaps, I think. 

Could be sooner, rather than later, and this certainly needs to get done before normal trading resumes in 2 weeks.  

 $SPX - gap target looks like around 3800 - before Dec. 6th

If you look for that gap on the NASDAQ you'll find that it's a much bigger correction...

Will be interesting to see how it plays out over the next couple weeks. 

Take Care, and have a happy Thanksgiving...  AA 

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