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Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Market Update 4/14/2020

Last week, "The Powers That Be", continued to squeeze the short sellers, on light Holiday volume. This is the new normal, but usually not to this extreme. The fake financial News is claiming last weeks 11% rally on the DOW - was the biggest since 1970's? Not sure if that's true, or not, or what relevance it has.... but they know they have to repair this market, or it's going to hurt GDP, and what better time to drive the market higher..?

As I said in my latest FACE interview, "nobody wants to get short into a holiday", and that's why I watch certain dates.  See: "$SPX Anthony showed major turning points at OPEX"

 No sooner than Monday rolled around it was time to squeeze the short sellers into the end of the week, and that's a good reason not to like this rally. It's not a natural market move, based on animal instincts, but rather, just another engineered short squeeze, in a rigged market.

Another reason not to like this rally, is that we're seeing markets driven to round number targets, and moving averages. 50 week, 200 week, 200 day ma. This isn't based on animal instincts, and it's difficult to find a pattern on the charts.

If this trend continues, then 2900 (at the 50 day ma), becomes the next target on the $SPX, and monthly OPEX is only a week away. Then 3000 (at the 200 day ma) going into Memorial Day (another holiday).

Earning season kicks off this morning with J&J, and $JPM, $WFC, leading into OPEX, and I saw  James Cramer, working the AM shift, pumping J&J. Another good opportunity to squeeze some short sellers.

It's like Deja Vu: 

All the same players we saw in '08: Mohamed El-Erian, Dr. Doom (Noriel Roubini), Jim Cramer. I saw a still shot from a video of Jim Cramer receiving a text from "Steve Mnuchin", live on air. I'm not 100% it was authentic, but I don't doubt i. I believe he's been working behind the scenes since '08.

 The script is nearly identical: Remember when Cramer went on his rant against the Fed in '08? Linked

Fast Forward 13 Years Later: 

Jim Cramer Wants U.S. to Release 'Mad Money'... 'They Know Nothing'

 Johnson & Johnson *$JNJ is one of Cramer's stocks to watch 

CNBC Transcript: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Speaks with CNBC’s Jim Cramer on “Squawk on the Street” Today


Looming Earnings Season Offers Next Test for Rebounding Stock Market WSJ 

Looking back at the entire rally:

Financials lead, as expected, with $FAS ending the week up 100% from where I called it out on March 23rd.

The best chart view for financials remains in the Public Charts area. This was one of the most straight forward, and profitable trades, since I called the bottom in March. $JETS is another, and that one still has room to run, ahead of the airline bailouts.

Looking back at last week:

 Once again we saw weekly OPEX rigged, when they purposefully drove financials above res - above my pink line. They raised the bid, above res. in pre-market, on a Friday, on light volume. Yesterday, Monday, we saw a gap fill on this index. This morning it's back above support.

Short term I think the market can go higher, but may need to pull back ahead of another short squeeze Friday OPEX.  

Long term I'm skeptical that the economy can pull out of this deflationary death spiral, regardless of how many trillions, "The Powers That Be", throw at it. Of course the market can price in a recovery, but that doesn't fix main street. 

Coronavirus has turned out to be NOT as deadly as the so called experts predicted, but as long as the lock-down continues, there can't be an economic recovery. There's a lot of talk about opening the country up, but they want to do mass testing. 

Keeping the country locked down also suits several political agendas: 

1. Hurt's Trump, and Boris Johnson, and the nationalist movement. 

2. Forced vaccinations, and a national ID system. 

3. Socialized Healthcare

4. Green New Deal

5. Lower Emissions 

6. Depopulation  

7. New World Order 

What you really need to watch over the next few days/ weeks, if the $VIX


$VIX found support above the 42.50 level on Monday. That will hold until this pullback is complete. That level could break this morning.   

Once the $VIX gaps up above the 47.50 level, you'll see a bigger pullback. 

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