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Thursday, February 27, 2020

Market Update - 2/27/2020

I started writing this blog about the time the top came in, so let's review that first.

$VIX bottomed, and never retested the 13.50 level, I has called out the week before, as several markets whipsawed into triangle tops.
$DAX continues to be one of the best indicators of the global economy.
On the chart below, you can see how $DAX futures had continued to whipsaw into a topping pattern, before violently reversing. 

Low volatility $SPX - I covered this one in previous blogs, and alerted to this very bearish ending diagonal triangle in my twitter feed.

You've probably heard it said, "nothing moves in a straight line"? It actually can... but not in the first wave down, and we're bound to get a massive reversal as soon as this morning, or as late as Monday morning. I kinda see us closing off the lows today, building a base, and squeezing the short sellers into the weekend. 

Watch for the $VIX to top out around 33 - 36, and the $TVIX to reverse @ 92. You don't even need a $SPX chart to know what's about to happen here.

I like the washout in oil, and Energy, with an OPEC meeting coming next week. Tech can continue to lead. I think there's a good chance Gold get's crushed, based on the Dow, priced in gold. Maybe not today, but withing a few weeks. I like US treasuries, and you can find that chart in the public charts area.


$DOW priced in Gold:

I'm almost out of time, and should be updating charts, not blogging.

Watch for this target on the DOW: 26435

After the reversal is confirmed, I would expect the market to snap back for several weeks. Don't under-estimate the power of the snap-back rally.

This market is a lot to wrap your head around, and if you don't absolutely trust the charts, forget about it!

I followed a bunch of new traders on twitter, which turned out to be far more distraction, than it was worth. For instance one trader I was following was seen pumping $DAX every morning, while perpetually bearish followers continue to hyperventilate over the COVID-19. It can become difficult to keep your emotions at bay.... but I've since un-followed most the people I started following 2 weeks ago, and that has helped me regain my focus. Tune out the emotion, those who talk up their own book, and the lying main stream media.

More later,

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