Page menu

Monday, April 13, 2026

Market Propped Above the 50-Day: Day 3 as Bull Clings to Life Support

Topping the headlines: Trump's errand boy (J.D. Vance) failed to reach a deal with Iranian negotiators in Pakistan over the weekend. Does this hurt his chances in the next presidential election? Not if he pins the blame squarely on DJT and separates himself from the ongoing Trump madness. Meanwhile, Trump’s strategy has shifted from ending Iranian civilization to a harmless blockade. I’m sure the Iranians are shaking in their boots (catch the sarcasm). 
$SPX futures landed on the head of a pin on Friday — a gentle pullback to support – as smooth as the Artemis II splashdown.
FYI: You’ll pay upwards of $500 to get that kind of real-time read in a live trading room. I just do it for fun. I don’t even trade the $SPX.
Played out about as expected ahead of Friday’s open: 
Market closed basically UNCH, while NVIDIA and Broadcom pulled double duty 

FOOLS ON PARADE: 

Investors are looking at the wrong tech stocks [link to story AOL]

Spoiler: Core theme: Small-cap tech is leaving Big Tech behind. 

If you believe that nonsense, I have a bridge for sale in Chicago - email me!

Quick Sidebar: Goldman Just Reported Earnings —Code Blue: bulls are watching it bleed out. Paramedics are already on the scene 

$FAS (3X Financials) chart powerful impulse wave - suspected wave A (in a bear market). 

watch for a pullback in wave B, before a finally suckers rally in wave C.    

$FAS 3X Financial Bull 


Back the Market Leaders that Aren't..: Not $TRAN, not $SOX, not Speculative AI 
 
$CMI (leads transports) Jacked back into the bullish channel, as if nothing ever happened. Iran conflict over, no, far from it, just another desperation move by the bulls - intent on getting paid on their weekly calls (options). Another desperate attempt to fix the charts - exposed.  



$MPWR Monolithic Power Systems (Semi leader) - I've covered this bloated AI pig before: trading at a 52x multiple (Ask Grok/Ai for yourself...) Perfect planetary alignment of earning and ceasefire hopes, btu you know it simply as FOMO (animal instincts). 


Oil & energy stocks are set to explode higher - as the tech bubble deflates 

Glad I filled my tank Saturday – only cost $50. Where's that recession everyone was calling for? Market rallies back and the fear porn spigot it turned off.  


Earnings Season to the Rescue? 
Congressional insider trading is set to kick-off this week — WAIT, maybe it already has! 

GOP Leader’s Family Buys xAI Stock Days Before Pentagon Integration sludge.co


Chairwoman Lisa McClain pictured  DJT 
House Republican Conference chairwoman Lisa McClain disclosed the purchase (100,001 - 250,000 in private stocks) made just days before the Pentagon announced a major integration with x/AI. 
Days after the purchase, on Dec. 22, Department of Defense announced plans to integrate X/AI's Grok models into its GenAI.mil platform... [link] 

2. April 11th, 2026: Trump becomes first president in history to endorse a stock by ticker symbol, name-dropping $PLTR Palantir on Truth Social and reversing its 16% freefall in minutes. [moneywise.com] 🤔

3. April 10, 2026 Warren, Whitehouse Probe Suspicious Oil Trades Surrounding Trump Iran Announcements [banking.senate.gov]    

P.S. April Options Expiration Friday in focus, ahead of the next FOMC meeting. Inflation numbers came in red hot on Friday, so don't expect the Fed to bail out the bulls again. 


Posted by at No comments:

Friday, April 10, 2026

Market Propped Above The 50 Day Moving Average: Day 2 (Weekly OPEX Edition)

If you’ve been charting the action over the past week, the headline is no surprise.We’ve watched market makers trigger the AI buying programs for years. What amazes me is not that the algos have been - once again - hijacked  — triggering machine buying on hundreds of chart views, but the sheer organization this move required. Weeks of planning went into it, complete with an "Off Ramp" (narrative flip).   
  • $VIX crushed below the 50 day.
  • All the majors — SPX, Dow, Nasdaq — bid raised above the key averages.
  • The size of the gap is extraordinary — nothing like it in the historical record.
Weekly OPEX calls are set to pay out across financials and AI stocks. Someone clearly knows something, because bank earnings don’t even kick off until next week. No whisper on the Street about a blowout bank earnings season — in fact the narrative we've been fed is all about private capital/private credit concerns as the big risk. 😅
$DJUSFN (Dow Jones U.S. Financials) is the poster child. Bid jacked straight above the 50 day. The size and duration of this gap has no comparison. Crickets from the talking heads — not a single mention of the 50 day moving average, the most watched SMA on Wall Street.
Banks lead ahead of earnings

Next: The $COMPQ Nasdaq - highlighted in yesterday's comments section (pinned tweet):  


15 minutes before the open -

401k still sitting up 5% for the year, another 13% employer match just hit on a whopper contribution 80% of Net — zero risk, zero stress. #Winning.I don’t need your rigged markets, money managers. In fact I just exposed the back of the house with charts anyone with a free trading app can see.See you Monday 

P.S. Tesla stock looks like a buy, now that's it's finished building a base: 



Posted by at No comments:

Thursday, April 9, 2026

Yesterday's 1-Day Relief Rally: NOT Even Close to an April 2025 Repeat

After getting caught up on yesterday's charting — which turned out to be WAY easier than expected, because I had already been charting upside targets for weeks — I've pivoted from neutral to bearish. Here's why:

  • Hormuz remains closed. A one-day relief rally don't change that.
  • The same mf'ers who told you to fade last week's rally, are now telling you to chase mag7 stocks #WTF? 
  • The glaring pivot back into crude oil & energy stocks (more... keep reading)  
  • $VIX remains elevated - remember what I said yesterday: "Don't become complacent..."   

Let's cut through the bs and go straight to the charts: 

1. First thing I noticed was the sector rotation back in play, as both $XOM and $CVX were bought right smack dab at the 50 day sma. That signals the return of the risk off trade.  Alerted to that in real time:    

2. $SPY (S&P 500 ETF) - glaring, massive gap left behind on the chart. These typically fill sooner, rather than later. $VIX gap... "".    

Spy Gap Highlighted
Watch for the "trap door" to be flung open, below the 672 level. Obvious gap-fill target, for starters.
SPY trap door (stop hunt) highlighted 

Still Bullish? Here's The Bull Case They're Pushing:

1. A relief rally on the heels of a two-week ceasefire changes everything. NOT! 

2. "$SOX 'almost' traded to new highs" 🤣 I actually heard CNBC Fast Money pushing this slop.

3. Tuesday's rally was "broad based". Even last night's guest Christopher Verrone (CMT Strategas) couldn't fully agree with that assertion. This is nothing like April 2025.   

4. Transports retested the recent highs – Dow theory.  

Bear Case Reality:

1. Hormuz remains closed (4 ships passed...). A 1-day relief rally doesn't change that. 

2. "Close" only counts in horseshoes, and hand grenades. $SOX actually did touch a new high yesterday, so I can't understand what all the table-pounding is about? The level to watch is the 8500 level.  

$SOX (semiconductors) 8500

3. At the end of the day: Mag7 darlings led the rally. The same "AI bubble" stocks that were sold in March. The same names CNBC Fast Money traders have been telling you to avoid. "$META" ring a bell?  

Dan Nathen was conspicuously absent from last night's show after recently telling investors to "fade the rally". Meanwhile, the host is calling it a "5 day winning streak"? Pure, disingenuous, fakery; gaslight.  

Seems the only honest person on last night's panel was Christopher Verrone, who refused to go along with the idea that the rally was broad-based.  

CNBC Fast Money – April 8, 2026 (Grok/AI Edition – Key Moments)
• ~38:47 – Chris Verrone on rally breadth: "Good day internally, not great… Russell 2000…"
• ~41:56 – Tim Seymour pounding the table on semiconductor leadership vs. the S&P.

Stocks to watch: 

$SOX, $TRAN (Trucking, shipping, airlines). Mag7 (more like lag7 or better yet drag7). If these start dragging on the market again, you know the drill.

Energy stocks: $XOM $CVX both bought at the 50 Day on the same 1 day route –no coincidence. Both higher in pre-market.   

P.S. If you caught yesterday's relief rally, which carried over into normal trading hours Wednesday — good for you. Take it! One-day relief rallies are a dime-a-dozen in a bear market. $VIX in the 19-20 zone is not a place to become complacent. We saw a short squeeze just like this in '08, just ahead of the collapse, and as a result most of us were caught off guard when the bottom dropped out of the market.

   

Posted by at No comments:

Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Trump Chickens Out (Again): TACO April 2026 Edition


Same movie (rerun) as last year: 🍿

  • Trump makes outrageous threats.
  • Trump capitulates. 
  • Investors robbed. 
  • Short sellers have a nasty case of Déjà vu. 
Bottom Line: Nobody wins - except maybe Israel?  



The Pinned Tweet That Foretold The Second Annual Taco (the main event)

   (Direct From My Twitter Feed Where Dreams Really Do Come True)


Today's Big Winner: Beaten-up Airline Stocks  

I think I'm going to have a lot of charting to get caught up on at today's open so I better wrap this up quickly. lol  

  1. $SPX Breakout Alerts — Called the futures breakout live ( yesterday Apr 7). 
  2. Energy Trade Unwind + Sector Rotation — Monday’s setup playing out in real time. That $XOM base was cute… until the rotation reversed. As I noted on Monday, that "Chart was flashing pure exhaustion" [link] 


The Verdict: Looking extremely bearish for the entire "heavily pumped" energy space.



  • Will Valero ($VLO) fare better? CNBC Fast Money gave it a fresh pump Monday night. 🤣
  • $80 Crude Oil Target? I called for this yesterday morning. Total crickets from the oil traders then—but they’re listening now.
  • What the Oil Bros missed: Crude Oil already broke out above $80. Nothing moves in a straight line. #Brent #CrudeOil pic.twitter.com/JYPy0Oi78f

Today's Game Plan Stay Nimble  

Am I chasing today's gains? No. No change in plans. Watching this nutty action from the sidelines until we see real traders return from vacation, just in time for Bank Earnings to kick off. 

Pro Tip: Don’t become overly complacent with the $VIX still trading in the 20s. Volatility and gamma can flip the Wheel of Death fast.

Veteran Market Timer | Trading the absurdity, one TACO at a time.
Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)