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Friday, April 17, 2026

Mag7 Stocks Lead Another Lopsided Rally — Umpteenth Time in The past 5 Months

Well, here we are again at the finish line — yet another Monthly OPEX date with a 10-day winning streak for the NASDAQ (technically it’s 12 days, I checked).As I always say: "it’s all about the options market", and the proof is in the pudding.


That's GREAT if all you were buying calls over the Passover/Easter holiday, or all you concerned with is 12 straight days of compound gains, and I'm sure at the end of the day Jim Cramer is high-fiving his investment club members as Mag 7 stocks continue to outperform... but then what? I'll tell you then what:

We're right back where we started – whipsawing in the same range we were at the end of 2025, and in even worse shape:  
  • Tech/ AI bubble - remember that story? 
  • Software-mageddon
  • Private credit unwind
  • Add to that the Strait of Hormuz blunder 


Broadening Rally Narrative Raises Its Ugly Head (again) 

Umpteenth time in 5 months 

Bloomberg/CNBC hosts/guests: pumping the “broad-based rally” - We've seen this story before, and - spoiler alert - it actually points to the end of the cycle. "Investors mulling Iran Truce Hopes" is another good one! 🤣


I looked under the hood on this shiny new bull market and found the same old engine — only firing on 5 cylinders.


The only stocks that can lead are the same Mag7 names (12-15 actually) that have dragged the S&P (kicking and screaming) back to the top of the range we're trading in all year. And guess what? They'll inevitably be the ones used to drive the pullback.


Of course the narrative will have to revert to the mean - I'm sure the next script is already been drafted complete with burning oil fields like we saw in Iraq. If you were to young to remember, or not  born yet, you missed one hell of a fire show!  

screenshot (theguardian.com)


Gulf Leaders Iran deal 6 months to finalize (semafor.com) - seems light to me.  
I lowballed it a day earlier in a tweet: 

Reminder: OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM TOOK 9 YEARS TO COMPLETE. That was easy, because we made Saddam in order to weaken Iran, and in hindsight that didn't work out so well. Remember the oil fields burning? BOOM TIME for the oil drillers (history rhymes).    
Stressed consumer - inflation that roared to (9%?) after the covid money printing orgy, in 2020. Followed by transitory inflation, then sticky inflation. Average consumer is stressed about their next grocery trip. $4 gas? Not so much.

OK, it’s time to stop whining and start winning:
I pointed to $NVDA and Broadcom “doing all the heavy lifting” days ago:
































$AVGO Broadcom updated chart shows it just filled the gap

Classic desperation target. Broadening pattern/ range.

$AVGO chart gap filled  
I'll Have Plenty More Mag7 Tricks Coming Up In The Near Future - so stay tuned! 

Remember the warning note I included (on the Oil Trade with my call for as possible Rotation Back into Energy Stocks? 
Unless you're a super nimble expert oil traders like me: "stay super nimble", I said

Well that trade has been placed back on hold like an AT&T customer service call –all we saw was a little short covering (yesterday), once support was taken out. I spent the rest of the afternoon, dropping juicy targets, and trolling the oil bulls. 

Trade Of The Day 3X Defense & Aerospace 

P.S. Possible Cyber Drill: False Flag Setup On The Horizon

Remember yesterday’s note on AI being handed the keys to the entire Euro-banking system? Yeah… regulators are out here calling everything “resilient” right as private-credit chatter, then a security drill turns into a live exercise – you know the drill. Sooner or later the banking system is going to crack — and this whole narrative gives them the perfect clean off-ramp. My advice is to have some cash on hand when the banking holiday hits. 


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