Welp — So Much for Tuesday's 1,125-Point Dow Rally

The only reason I’m pointing at Tuesday’s "Trump Taco Trade" (TTT)—that 1,125-point rip on the Dow—is because of how it vanished from the narrative by Thursday morning. It was newsworthy: Bloomberg called it the biggest rally since May (fact). Yahoo News covered it. But the major networks? Ghost town. CNBC even told investors to "fade it."

I called it a probable bear rally before it even began [link]. It smelled like a dead cat then, and it's starting to stink now. 

Video linked (finance.yahoo.com)

Last Night's Presidential Address Lands With A Thud

Trump loves to brag about the market, which falls right into my wheelhouse. I watched the address live so you didn't have to. The "Eternal Gaslight" engine was in high gear:

• "We won the war" – I shouldn't laugh, but if we already "won," let's bring the troops home to a hero's parade.

• The Moving Goalposts – Four weeks turned into five, and now he’s saying "2 to 3 weeks." Don't hold your breath.

• "I thought Oil prices were going to go up higher" – An exact quote.

The "Higher Oil" Price Conspiracy  - Hear Me Out: 

Maybe he actually wants oil prices higher? His donors are making a fortune ("We're making a lot of money"). UK oil companies are fueling the current sector rotation, and then there’s the Eilat–Ashkelon Pipeline (EAPC).

It’s a major Israeli conduit from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean—a shortcut for oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. You think that's far-fetched? Pull up a $TA125 Tel Aviv Stock chart; you'll find a rally there actually worthy of bragging rights. #MIGA

The ultimate conspiracy angle: Close the straits, jack up fuel costs, reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Higher costs = fewer flights, less driving, lower carbon. Is the "plan" just a green energy play wrapped in a flag?   

My Morning After Review of Trump's Presidential Address 

I watched, expecting something different - an announcement, a plan of some sort...? - got the same old Trump bs. 🍿 #PresidentialAddress #EpicFail

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) April 2, 2026=

The Reality Check 

Most traders watch the $SPX, not the Dow, because big tech drives the bus. With the Nasdaq hitting 7-month lows, that's the reality for most 401k funds. If you’ve been "buying the dip" on hope, you’re down—way down. Trump’s an 80-year-old billionaire; he isn't losing sleep over your cost basis.

Are Markets Near a Tradeable Bottom? Short answer: No.

• The trend has been down for months.

• Every rally is just speculators piling into risky assets, not "real money" being put to work.

• $VIX in the 25s? Oof. This morning is looking bloody.

We likely need to retest the lows and see true sector capitulation before anything sustainable happens. As for the 401k, stick to your long-term plan. And as always, consult a professional before putting your capital at risk.

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