May OpEx Wrap-Up: AI Breaks Down What the Media Wouldn't

Yields higher? Yes. Oil bounced? Most definitely. Volatile week? Uh... No! The charts don't lie, so let's not waste any time cutting through the BS:

$VXX (short-term $VIX) was sold at the 20-day — capping another low-volume week. Closed only slightly higher (+0.8%) heading into a holiday-shortened stretch ahead of Memorial Day. This is prime time for bullish manipulation over the next two weeks. Watch and learn.

$VXX screenshot

That didn't stop Yahoo Finance from publishing this gem — 111 characters, 4 writers, still wrong:

"Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq sink as bond yields jump to cap volatile week ahead of Nvidia earnings" (finance.yahoo.com) 

I'd be embarrassed to publish such a long title. But apparently retail is supposed to be laser-focused on NVIDIA earnings this week. I have a better plan — keep reading. 

To be honest: I noticed the tells Thursday — $VIX getting punished like the bears were being mocked: "just try it." "Looked like a gap fade... albeit a few days late" (quotes from Grok chat), and it arrived right on schedule. Easy read? Not really. I kind of expected stocks to hold up another day, but I had no skin in the game either way. Wait actually our bond fund did get scorched, but not completely torched.   

For the average retail investor, here's what matters: when the options chess board gets flipped near end-of-game, it creates real collateral damage across the broader tape — even if you never touch a single contract. Friday was a masterclass in that.

The One Guy Who Called It

"option expiration on cme. not a legit sell off just bankers stealing money from call option buyers while buying put options . will reverse next week . China will hoard more silver at these prices"

— Alpha24 (@alcapone1924) May 15, 2026

I noticed Silver pulling back to its 50-day earlier that day. Not endorsing Silver at these levels — just highlighting the uncanny accuracy. Same mechanics, different asset. Textbook. 

Silver back-tests the 50 day sma #Bullish pic.twitter.com/rax67JeEbp

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 15, 2026

Don't believe me? I asked AI to weigh in. Scroll to the P.S.

The "Better Plan..." As NVIDIA Earnings Comes Into Focus  

Here's a clue: If you're sharp; you'll figure it out for yourself, before the close. pic.twitter.com/8L7iiLoEei

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 15, 2026

The 1st set of clues was buried in two tweet responses — 23 views total. Here it is:

1. "FAANG stocks are probably still going higher, but there are better trades."
2. "Here's a clue: If you're sharp, you'll figure it out yourself before the close."

The NYSE Composite chart tells the story. So far Megacap Tech (AKA MAG7) have done all the heavy (Since April Lows). Now the laggards get their turn — midcaps, $TRAN [highlighted last week], consumer cyclicals. Everything that's been simmering on the back burner while big tech took the headlines. Classic late-cycle rotation. 

2nd Clue - talking heads are already waiving their arms over next weeks earnings season - not NVIDIA - the other earnings season. Consumer Discretionary. That's right, while retail is salivating over $NVDA earnings looking for another AI rocket launch, retail earnings may entirely steal the show.   

P.S. — Claude's Take on Fridays Rug Pull 

The Prompt: "You're an expert at decoding options market mechanics. The tweet below claims Friday's selloff was orchestrated — dealers pinning strikes and shaking out call buyers on Monthly OpEx. Validate or debunk: did Options Expiration engineering drive Friday's -1.5% market drop, and is a reversal coming? Keep it to 1-2 paragraphs, plain English."

Claud's response:  Every third Friday, the options market becomes a demolition derby. With Monthly CME OpEx on the calendar, dealers who sold calls needed the market to close below key strikes — letting those contracts expire worthless. That's max pain. Coordinated selling torches the call buyers, while smart money that loaded puts pockets the difference. The -1.5% drop wasn't random — it landed exactly where it needed to hurt the most people.

The spillover is simple: dealers unwinding delta hedges into the close dump real shares, creating real selling across the tape. Retail sees panic. Institutions see a sale. The reversal call for next week isn't a prediction — it's a roadmap. Once the overhang clears and dealers re-hedge for June, the bid comes back.

— Claude (Anthropic) | May 16, 2026

Dow Jones Futures Test 50,000 - Dow Transports $TRAN Bullish

We all know the Dow is a dead index, but the sector rotation back into $TRAN (Dow theory) is still very much alive. 

 I recently recommended $TRAN - not as an alternative lifestyle choice, but as the next likely sector rotation, and while scanning my radar this morning, I immediately noticed it being bought - right at the 50 day sma. Consider this your final warning to get on board with this trade. You may also want to consider trading the higher risk/reward, fast money option - namely the 3X transports ($TPOR). If you haven't traded 3X leveraged funds read my disclaimer. Word to the Wise: Leveraged ETFs Are Not for the Casual Investor

Dow Transports $TRAN chart - First thing you'll notice is the recent flash-crash. Crickets from the ever-pumping US market bulls, who tried to sell us on a "broadening out economy". Looks more constructive here - building a base. Counter-trend rallies can be vicious, so sit back and enjoy the show. Note: You might want to check the earning calendar to see what is going to lead the comeback rally. Think airlines, trucking, railroads. Do your own due diligence.    

$TRAN Chart TradingView 

I also recently called out energy (last week was it?), but that trade seems to be languishing. You're on your own there. Check it again, once the rotation out of tech builds a head of steam. This is the same 'ol whac-a-mole rotation that has worked over the past several years. The only time it doesn't work, is in a full-on market crash, which I'm not expecting any time soon. 

Meanwhile the entirely highly speculative, solely AI driven, tech sector is screaming exhaustion, after only a 1 month rally. Even Bloomberg is comparing the latest moves in AI stocks - including Jim Cramer fav. $CSCO (up 20% over-night), to the blockchain party of 2025  - and we all remember how that turned out. Ever wonder why Crypto no longer leads the tech rally - now you know.  Highly speculative AI took it's place, and in the end the unwind will make the crypto crash look like Sunday stroll in the park.  

Today you see the same traders who drove these insane rallies, turning tail, and piling back into copper miners? No thanks. I'd rather hide out in US Treasuries, or trade the German $DAX. 

Yesterday what moved markets? China. Bloomberg was seen blatantly pushing Alibaba - attributing it to the Xi summit - even as it was blatantly obvious that trade had already run it's course in US markets.

Alibaba rallied off the 50 Day moving average (+8%), today. Bloomberg reports it as breaking new out of China. $BABA pic.twitter.com/o52edUAujY

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 14, 2026

 The charts don't lie, talking heads do. 

Trump historic Xi summit 

A certain US bank spoiler: Morgan Stanley immediately turned bullish on China (investing live) - helping to drive the 3X China bull (+6%) in yesterday's trade. Trigger the algos much? I'll trust the trend, and not trust the Chinese surveillance state.  School children seen welcoming (forced to) Donald Trump and co. with high energy enthusiasm I haven't seen since the North Vietnamese took to the the Ho Chi Minh Trail with guns at their backs. 😂 Children who refused to participate immediately had their organs auctioned. Chinese officials couldn't be reached for comment.  

Still want to chase Chinese hyperscalers? You're on your own. 

GL, AA 

P.S. Morgan Stanley was recently seen peddling US stocks in China (nai500.com), so you may want to take their recent upgrade on the $SPX, with a grain of rice.  

P.P.S. Re: The blockchain party that ended in 2025. The same speculative fast money that drove that trade to the moon and back is driving the AI trade, and now you know why Crypto no longer leads the NASDAQ (the only major index that seems to take part in the so-called “New Industrial Revolution"). Hey, I still have a bridge in Chicago to sell, if you're interested - CALL ME!