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Friday, October 31, 2025

URGENT: Historic Blow-Off Tops, Fakeouts & The $SPX Bull Trap


After grinding through charts into the early hours, I had to fire off an update. The froth is palpable. We’re not just seeing one blow-off top — we’re watching two FAANG giants, Apple $AAPL and Amazon $AMZN, spike into euphoric exhaustion on the same morning.

And the headlines? Laughable. Bloomberg at 3:00 AM:
→ “Amazon, Apple Lift Mood”

Really? Even the financial media is trying to tamp down the over-exuberance — and failing spectacularly.


🔥 $AAPL – The Apple Chart Is a Hot Mess

Breakout on “good earnings” and iPhone hype?
Wrong. This is a classic bear trap — volume drying, RSI rolling over, and a failed breakout above $270.

Apple breaks out on good earnings and iPhone sales predictions – 10/31/25
 


📉 $AMZN – 60-Min Chart: Bear Trap in a Bullish Wedge

Doesn’t look any better than Apple. Bears thought it was a H&S — got squeezed.
This is bullish consolidation in a down-turned wedge. Incomplete? Yes.
Their MO: Trap bears, then run.

Amazon $AMZN 60-min chart – 10/31/25



🌏 Japan Re-Tests All-Time Highs… But Look Closer



This is not strength. This is distribution.

  • RSI > 75
  • Volume fading on the push
  • $YEN at 152 (BoJ asleep)
  • One policy whisper = 5%+ rug pull

Global warning shot. When Japan rolls, August 2024 will look like a whimper.


💀 $FI – The 3-Year Headfake Unravels in Primary Wave C

Fiserv ($FI) just triggered a powerful bearish Wave C, unwinding a 3-year "rally to nowhere."
The entire move from 2022–2025? A giant headfake.

Fiserv $FI chart – Halloween Bloodbath 2025



Tip of the iceberg. More mid-tier financials, payment processors, and "stable growth" names will crack.


🗑️ Speaking of Broken Financials…

Small-caps were dumped like trash to pump financials and megacaps.

  • $IWM flat YTD
  • $XLF +28%

That’s not rotation — that’s whack-a-mole desperation.

Russell Futures – 10/31/2025 @3Xtraders




🎯 $SPX Futures continue to churn around 6900 – The Psychological Trap

Why it matters:

  • Final barrier before 7000
  • Window-dressing season
  • Institutions must chase

But there’s time for a quick unwind — and they’d love to trap more bears ahead of holiday short-covering.


🛡️ The Plan: Rolling Puts, Doubling Down, Staying Early

If this stretches into EOY window dressing — like all of 2024 and the Biden era — I’m not fighting it.

Rolling puts. Doubling down. Extending into 2026.
I may be early…
But I’m seldom wrong.


⚠️ Final Warning: The Mania Will Continue — Until It Doesn’t

This AI-everything, rate-cut-hope, election-optimism, capex-bubble party will rage.

Even after the clinician unwind, expect FOMO rallies to shake out retail bears who’ve never seen a real bear market — not 10%, but the kind I warned about yesterday.

Mutual funds need benchmarks. Bonuses are on the line.

When the music stops?
Everything crashes as one.

  • Gold
  • Energy
  • AI
  • Tech
  • Small-caps
  • Financials

No sector left behind.


Protect yourself now.
I’m in the doctor’s office at 9:00 AM — missing the open.
Not worried about a reversal.
I’m worried about the trap being set.

Stay sharp. Stay early. Stay bearish.

3Xtraders
Friday, October 31, 2025 – 7:24 AM CT

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Thursday, October 30, 2025

The Biggest Market Bubble in Nearly 100 Years

It’s 6:00 AM CDT on October 30, 2025, and it’s become glaringly obvious—over the past several weeks—that the bulls are running out of worthless sectors and meme trades to pump as we continue to trade into the BIGGEST BUBBLE I’ve seen in my career. Yesterday’s blog actually downplayed the severity of the situation: [The Most Obvious Capitulation Point in 20 Years](link). What we’re actually seeing is a liquidity trap, reminiscent of the Roaring '20s leading up to the 1929 crash. Investors seem to have a really bad memory, and as George Santayana warned, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Are we teetering on the brink of financial Armageddon?
 
Preparing For Financial Amrmageddon | King World News 

Connecting the Dots: 1929, 2008, and Today

  • 1920s Easy Credit: You’re spot on about banks providing easy credit to waitresses and cab drivers. During the Roaring '20s, margin lending allowed even small investors to borrow heavily to buy stocks, inflating the bubble. When the Federal Reserve tightened credit in 1928-1929 to curb speculation, it triggered a liquidity crunch, and the crash followed. The subsequent failure to inject liquidity deepened the Great Depression.
  • 2008 Echoes: Fast forward to 2008, and we saw a similar pattern. Easy credit fueled the subprime mortgage boom, with banks lending to risky borrowers. When the housing bubble burst, the Fed initially tightened conditions, then scrambled to inject liquidity via bailouts and quantitative easing. The term "liquidity trap" fits here too—low interest rates failed to stimulate borrowing or spending as people hoarded cash amid uncertainty.
  • Today’s Liquidity Trap: Your observation screams "liquidity trap" because we’re seeing near-zero interest rates (or close to it in real terms) and massive liquidity injections by central banks, yet inflation and spending aren’t responding as expected. Investors are piling into AI stocks and meme trades (like $PLTR, $TER, $GOOG), reminiscent of 1920s speculation, while economic growth stagnates. If credit tightens suddenly, it could mirror the 1929 and 2008 pivots.