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Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Record Dow Highs Mask Another Dash for Trash (Honeywell Edition)


While the talking heads are crying wolf on AI valuation, and getting squeezed out of their semiconductor shorts again — $SOX ripped +6% off the lows in a midday reversal (Fast Money panic-buying semis, much?) — we were busy ringing the register after another rip-roaring, manic Monday. 


Sell the rip continues to be the winning strategy in a market that whipsaws into another slightly higher high, only to have the run pulled every other day. "Buy and hold is dead." 

Latest victim of the industrial sector pump $HON Honeywell: Downturned triangle pattern - From breakout to fake out, followed by a  mid-day flash crash. Trading back below 2024 levels (ouch).   

 $HON chart is a perfect example of why I'm only 60% invested, and every 2% rally gets a hair trigger. 

Final breakdown on Industrials: Google, $CAT, $UNH all held the spotlight, as Honeywell flash crashed. 

Best Performer $SOX Semiconductors - They tried to take $SOX lower, and learned not to mess with the bull Rallying +6% off the lows of the session — that's why they call themselves "Fast Money." Panic buying! πŸ˜‚

I saw a not-so-nice story floating around the internet about price fixing in S. Korea, which seems to lack one important thing — a single shred of evidence: 

And yet another negative story about Apple margins (creative!):  


Sounds pretty dire right? Keep covering those shorts πŸ˜‚

More Bull Market Highlights (sense the sarcasm) 

The Dash For Trash For Bottom Of the Barrel Losers Gains Steam  

Click on the above thread to find other pump n dump fav $RBLX Roblox. 
Short squeeze targets also included Comcast, as well as a short squeeze in heavily pummeled $MSTR.   

Meanwhile: the $VIX is still lurking in the danger zone with the strong possibility of a final rebalance, ahead of Q2 earnings ahead — stay nimble.

Good Luck, and have a happy and safe 4th of July 

AA

P.S. MSM is more focused on Lisa Cook than the absurdity actually unfolding in the tape.



P.P.S. Are the talking heads celebrating America's 250th anniversary? Not so much. πŸ©πŸ’© (final rant) 



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Saturday, June 27, 2026

Stealth Rallies NOT to Chase + The Sector Rotation You Can’t Afford To Miss

While a host of media personalities and financial gurus put on a bear parade across several financial networks last week — trying to convince you that the rally in semiconductors is over, parroting the same old 'capex is unsustainable' line they ran back in February — there was a fierce arcade game going on under the surface.

Latest Stealth Rallies We Don't Want To Chase 


Sectors I've been watching, and mostly making fun of: See my signature poodle shit avatar inserts on the tweet:  

If you follow the troll chatter on the X  platform, as closely as I do, then you may have seen the FURUs' (Fake Guru acronym)  pushing Home Builders, Airlines, and Healthcare/ Biotech.  

Perfect Example πŸ‘‡   Vague weekly charts, bold claims, discord room (all the telltale signs of a con).    


One of the trades the spammers don't mention: Insurance Companies - lifted by healthcare (trading on Medicare increase fumes)  

$KIE (SPDR S&P Insurance ETF) Rising Tide Lifts All Ships, or at least makes them whipsaw in a range. Perhaps this the "broadening out" I keep hearing about!     

stockcharts.com

I watched CNBC Fast Money highlight some of the same whac-a-mole trades in micro-sectors, on Friday, and I thought, "well isn't that ironic...". Look if you're going to call yourselves "Fast Money", then stop blowing smoke about Transports lifting industrials in a broadening out economy, while simultaneously casting shade on the most explosive rally since gold miners - Semiconductors stocks.  

Of course I've been scoping the action in these whac-a-mole sector trades, but these are a distraction from reality. Tech drives this market like nothing else, and everything else is an unwanted distraction. 

The same "broadening out into Industrials that you see Tim Seymour (CNBC) pushing you can find being pushed by the troll army on twitter. 

FURU #2 

Truth is the Dow Jones is not breaking out to new highs. 

FURU #3 

At least he mentioned that industrials were "well off the HOD" 

FURU #4  to highlight the fuckery: Claim that AI FOMO driven Cat & Deere are just normal industrial plays. This is straight from the Seymour playbook!  

$XLI Chart - I had to draw this one up fresh, because I don't trade "industrials". I don't chase mirages either. Pattern looks like a range, with a slight overshoot. Blow-off top? You decide.   


Pro Tip: When you see the magicians all pointing to the same cup game, run in the other direction.  


Where's the Real Sector Rotation About to Take Place? Into The Only Sector That Actually Matters 

No, not Airlines - the QQQ's - lead by BIG TECH (aka "the hyperscalers").

Same $QQQ Every money manager on Wall Street wants to own, even when they tell you (the retail investor) that it's too expensive. CapEx worries! yeah right πŸ˜‚

Landed Right on the 50 day SMA on Friday - triggering the Algos. Machine buying.


stockcharts.com


Reminder: The Other Bullish Setup We're Still Watching:

$XLC (State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF). Takes out the secondary pullback target I pointed to in the blog dated June 9th. [link] "The chart speaks for itself. #1 Holding $META. #2 & #3 Holdings Google/Alphabet. You should be seeing a pattern: a rotation out of $AAPL, into one or more of the other Mag7 market drivers. Pro-tip: Sideways patterns like this are notorious for plenty of head-fakes, so don't bet the farm all at once. If it drops to 107 add.." And here we are! Watch for a Breakout in Sunday evening futures. Missed the boat? Chase it.

Updated Chart

Good Luck, and have a happy and safe 4th of July 

AA

P.S. Sunday Morning (edit). If you're nimble enough to get in and out of a trade quickly; watch for a possible continuation of the Friday short-covering rally we saw in the beaten up softwaremageddon space. $DJUSSW (Dow Jones Software Index)  Breakout target 6400. Stoploss 5967.50.  Possible upside targets 6700, 7150 (*200 day SMA). 


I'm not personally chasing this trade, but the chart helps shine a spotlight on the continuing bear market in the software (tech) space, as well as how explosive Friday short covering rallies can be.  

P.P.S Saving the best for last: *$KURU - Best Trade of The Year (covered last week) - I predict South Korean/Asian investors - NOT ARMY ANTS- are going to continue driving semis higher  - The Heart of the AI Trade - (future blog topic), even after what the bears tried to pull last week.

 

*Charts are Proprietary.      


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