Page menu

Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Greenland Escalation Hits the Tape Right After Options Exp

This morning's action confirms the bearish pattern I was seeing on the $SPX futures chart I tweeted out on Friday, and pinned to the top of my X home page. Futures deep in the red. 

The Catalyst - which just happened to kick off just as soon as Jan. Options Expired—classic Trump tariff retread to spook the algos. Coincidence? Was it also a coincidence when the Covid crash happened the day after OPEX? I'll let you decide. 

An escalation of tensions between NATO and the US over Greenland

1. European countries attempt to usurp US interest in Greenland - as a long time military stronghold - markets reacted with repeated breakouts on the $VIX.  

2. Trump announces 10% tariffs on eight nations Britain, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, which go into effect Feb 1st. 

3. French president Macron - requests that the EU deploy its anti-coercion instrument, the bloc’s most powerful retaliatory tool originally designed for use against China. What a poser.

French President Emmanuel Macron - wearing blue aviator shades - calls for retaliatory ‘trade bazooka’ - (Yoan Valat/Reuters)

4.  Bessant was seen dialing back the rhetoric on Meet The Press - on Sunday - stating "Europe is too weak to defend Greenland from future threats". 

"Let me tell you what will happen, and it might not be next year, it might not be in five years, but down the road this fight for the Arctic is real," Bessent said. "We would keep our NATO guarantees and if there were an attack on Greenland from Russia, from some other area, we would get dragged in. So better now, peace through strength, make it part of the United States, and there will not be a conflict because the United States right now, we are the hottest country in the world, we are the strongest country in the world. The Europeans project weakness. The U.S. projects strength".  (thehill.com)

Wall Street Journal (used to be a reliable news source) Ramps Up The Fear Porn TLDR:

Wall Street Journal Flags A Dark Downside To Donald Trump’s Greenland Push

The newspaper's conservative editorial board pointed out the "sad irony" of the president's bid to seize the island. (huffpost.com)
Read more »
Posted by at No comments:

Thursday, January 15, 2026

Bear Raids Intensify as Earnings Kick off - $VIX Spikes +18 (+13%)

$VIX broke out above the 50-day SMA yesterday in an apparent bear raid, as investors continued to hide in metals and energy stocks. Funny thing is: the $NYA (NYSE Composite) and Small Caps ended the day higher—so we’re right back to square one in these mixed (whac-a-mole) markets.

What Caused Yesterday's Limited Selling Panic?    

Same shit I called out back in Dec 2021 RE: The 'new market' triggering machine to buying/selling at the moving averages, and using the $SVXY to manipulate the $VIX [link]. Yesterday's bear raid? Textbook attempt at a Volmageddon-style replay. If you've been following me over the past 5 years, then you know exactly what I'm talking about. If not see:  A Tale of Volmageddon Feb, 18, 2022  

$SVXY Rug Pulled In An Attempt To Trigger Volmageddon  
$SVXY Visual Proof


 
What else they sell? Tech, Financials, Consumer discretionary Mag 7 (-1.5%) (rug pulled below the 50 day).  

What did they buy? The $VIX, Energy, Materials, Metals, Utilities, Real Estate, even Crude Oil, with the talking heads at CNBC ignoring the flash-crash I alerted to in the afternoon, and by yesterday evening they were seen declaring victory as, "Oil Hits 3 month high". Nitwhits  

The "Broadening Out" Market Narrative Faceplants in 2026

  • Energy the Fast Money Favorite Sector Rotation Trade  (on Iran fears)   
  • Metals, Miners, Materials, the same dash to hard assets (panic) trade we saw lead in 2025.
  • Stocks continue to under-perform as a whole  
  • Most sectors remain in a bubble 

Kicking Earnings Season Off With A Thud 

The same folks who encouraged you to chase financials into the end of the year, are eerily silent, and that speaks volumes. Trade The Market You Have Not The One You Want Those who didn't learn not to chase the banking sector in 2008, or 2023, are perhaps about to learn a very valuable lesson in 2026. 

Here's Something You Aren't Seeing On CNBC 

$TCOM Trip .com aka Tripcom - The latest victim of the, "stocks breakout to new all time highs narrative".   

$TCOM Visual Proof

You don't have to like the market you're trading to trade it effectively, but it certainly does take most the fun out of it. 

Bottom line: trade the market they give you, not the one you want. Don't buy breakouts—sell them. Don't allow animal instincts to cause you run off a cliff- chasing shiny things. The machines are still running the show. Yesterday was just another chapter in the new playbook I've been exposing since 2021.

Take Care, AA 

P.S. New Market Same as the Old Market: short-covering, blow-offs, rug-pulls below MAs, shiny distractions (silver pump anyone?). Today's action is just another chapter. I'll keep calling the games as they happen. Watch the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day levels—they're still the machines' favorite tripwires; even on the 15, and 60 min. charts. GL, AA 

Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)