Dissecting Semiconductors + One Hyperscaler Quietly Sitting on the Launchpad

After Friday's short squeeze in Intel (+30% at one point in pre-market) — I decided to pop the latch on the semiconductor engine. I found a few monkey wrenches. But I also found a double bottom forming in one of Wall Street's favorite hyperscalers ($IBM).

• $INTC (Intel) — The AI perma-bulls seemed to throw caution to the wind on Friday, as they drove the stock to new all-time highs in Thursday's after-hours session — putting a few more sprinkles on the already heavily frosted rally in semiconductor stocks.

  🔧 A Few Monkey Wrenches:

• Super risky, highly speculative microcaps like $COHU being FOMO bought — red flag — reminiscent of the crypto pump of '25
• The same bots we watched drive crypto to the moon and back last year were spotted trolling the financial hashtags on X — HUGE RED FLAG
  

Same Bots Different Stocks

THE DANGLING CARROT WALL STREET MUST CHASE   

You gotta take the good with the bad — especially heading into what may be the biggest earnings week for tech stocks all year. And I found a big juicy carrot dangling directly in front of the perma-bulls — one they ABSOLUTELY CANNOT RESIST. Why? Because it's a "hyperscaler" (fancy Wall Street word for "big cloud company") — and I plan to tear that whole world apart in an upcoming 3-part series. DON'T MISS IT.

$IBM — Trades into a perfect double bottom (that's no coincidence). I think it can easily rally back to the June 2025 level of $290. Wall Street holds a broadly bullish consensus on IBM, with 60% of analysts rating it a Buy and 40% maintaining a Neutral stance — notably, 0% carry a Bearish rating.

$IBM DCS chart

$VIX Update: Still manipulated as ever — they can't technically short it, so they do this instead: [link]

Make No Mistake — This Market Is Trading Into a Bubble Like the World Has Never Seen Before

• Animal instincts being triggered by Hollywood-level smoke & mirrors
• Machine-driven algos steering markets instead of common sense
• Entire market levitated by one highly speculative sector
• Selling of $VIX volatility signaling Risk On — a false positive
• Broader market whipsawing back to the top of the range — technical red flag
• Friday short squeezes masquerading as organic buying — classic bear indicator

Warning to 401k fans: We've gone to 100% cash and dropped new contributions to 0%!

I'm not saying stocks are going to crash right here — but the S&P is trading back near the top of the range. "New All-Time Highs" is mostly smoke and mirrors. Most stocks are not trading at all-time highs — far from it.

I'm not saying stocks are going to crash right here, but the S&P is trading back near the top of the range. "New All Time Highs", is mostly smoke and mirrors (hype). Most stocks are not trading at all time highs - far from it. pic.twitter.com/3PJ2Kjn3yN

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) April 24, 2026

Take Care, 

AA 

P.S. — Reminder: Intel became a government-sponsored enterprise when the Trump administration purchased a nearly 10% stake (433.3 million shares) in August 2025 — a move designed to bolster domestic semiconductor production. So the question worth asking: if chip demand is so insatiable, why does Intel need a government lifeline at all?

Transportation Stocks Flash Crash, Semiconductor Chip Stocks Flash Surge

Markets are taking a breather after yesterday's massive breakout — and the machines are still buying. Last I checked, the algos were piling into signals on a 15-minute timeline. You could call it leftover momentum. I call it the tell.

Turns out the algos bought NASDAQ futures @ the 200 sma on the 15 min. chart view 👇 pic.twitter.com/AwgEC0Etpk

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) April 23, 2026

$TRAN Transportation stocks crashed right on schedule — I nailed this one 2 days ago: [link]

First I absolutely destroyed the bullish AI-generated narrative. Then I suggested traders should "short the hell out of it." It doesn't get any better than this!

$TRAN DCS Chart 

The crash in Transportation stocks probably added fuel to the $SOX fire, as the algos switch jockeys mid-race. This is really what all the FOMO buying is about. Momentum, and 0DTE options.

CNBC Fast Money traders blamed the crash on Avis (down 37%) — duh. I blame it on FOMO buying anything that moves to the upside on momentum, regardless of valuation.

April 22, 2026: Final Warning Came From Forbes: "A Car Rental Stock Soared 700% In A Month. Is It A Meme Stock?" (Forbes)

If you're having a sense of déjà vu, like you've seen this story before, you're right. Last time Avis led the $TRAN into a blow-off top was 2022. I even labeled it a meme trade back in '22. The chart proves the '26 market is only a repeat of 2022. Rallies to new highs that only lead to more flash crashes. Enjoy the fireworks.

 

The Historic Run in Semiconductor Stocks

Longest winning streak. Fastest momentum since the dot-com bubble top in 2000. Don't just take my word for it — check the $SOX chart.

Historic $SOX momentum is being fueled by the same market mechanics we just saw blow up in $TRAN. $TXN is the one to watch — could be the next Avis.😂 $SOX TARGET 10,000 

Think that's impressive? Pull up the 3X leveraged bull $SOXL. Go ahead. I dare you. 🤣

Pro leveraged ETF traders — playing off the script I wrote about this exact dynamic over a decade ago - 2012 [link]— the perpetrators have clearly gotten better organized. Once you understand that compound gains in leveraged ETFs add up fast, and you mix that with a "greed is good" motivator, you don't have a rally. You have a rocket ship.  

$SOX acceleration and momentum far exceeds anything we saw in 2000 — because AI is now capitalizing on the compound gains in the index, not to mention the accentuated moves in the leveraged ETFs. I wrote about this over a decade ago. To see it play out in real time is a bit surreal. [link to 2012 post]

 

Sector Rotation: From $TRAN to Pot Stocks

The latest rotation out of $TRAN also sent AI stocks soaring — along with pot stocks, of all things. This is the new industrial revolution? I don't think so. Of course Tim Seymour is excited. I have to respect a man who owns a Deere, but dude, "what are you smokin'?"

Another trade on my radar: the Aerospace sector. The hedge funds are pretending not to love the space because they want your shares. A strong hand with an exit plan may be required. $DFEN may also be in play — do your own due diligence. [link]  [link to riches]  

P.S. The same Mag7 tech stocks are re-inflating the bubble, just as I predicted back in January. There is no other market — only the AI bubble market. Meanwhile, the $SPX Equal-weight trades into a double-top. Take away big tech and stocks are barely even up on the year. CNBC is crediting Strait of Hormuz hopes for the rally to new highs. You can't make this stuff up. [link]

P.S.S. I have a killer 3-part series in the works — the market is giving me plenty of material — and you're not going to want to miss it.