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Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Mideast War Pops the Global Balloon: Oil/Energy Soar - Your Technical Tuesday Playbook

It apparently takes a regional war in the Mideast to finally pop the balloon on global markets, but that's how the cookie crumbles–at least we got the snapback rally I alerted to on Sat. [link] 

Different story same playbook - no lockdown virus this time:  

  • Rug is pulled at market highs - From Germany to Australia, to Japan 
  • Monday morning surprise at the end of the month (Feb.) - cycles  
  • Sector rotation into energy continues - this sell off may be different but it rhymes 

$SPX is still trading in the same sideways range we've been stuck in for 4 months. 

Energy markets have been anticipating Operation Epic Fury for months it seems, with $USO up +25% off the Dec. lows

We may have just seen capitulation in that space—check the massive selling volume on $ERY (2X energy bear). You don't think anyone would be dumb enough to sell this bear fund short? I do...  

$ERY rug pull on record volume


Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed on Russian media. 

Take that war propaganda for what it's worth:  

 1. US is self sufficient. 

2. There is an oil glut. 

3. Supply isn't affected until the strait is shut down for 30 days. 

4. Oil is in a long term bear market.

5. Iran lies all the time 

What Else Was Up Yesterday? US Tech Stocks Rally with The US Dollar 

That's right just as CNBC Fast Money clowns told you to invest in Chinese Tech US tech leads, and the safe haven trade becomes the same currency (the $USD) the gold bugs warned you about. 

MAG7 Stocks Trade to 2 week highs after Having Their Best 1 Day Run In 50 Days- crickets 🦗 from the rotten msm - too busy rooting for the oil inflation trade, I guess. 

Didn't I tell you these vermin would root for the enemy, and this is only day 3. 

Trading Tip of the Day: Know how to set a stop loss if you're going to dabble in commodities trading 

P.S. The Broadening Out Economy Trade Final Nail Driven Into the Heart of the False Narrative    




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Saturday, February 28, 2026

US Launches Operation Epic Fury on Iran - How Will Markets React?

 
US Israel Launch Attack on Iran timesnownews.com
Over the weekend: US launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, with the help of Israel:
  • $VIX (fear gauge) has been riding high for weeks.
  • Crude Oil has been on a tear touching a new recent high on Friday.
  • Gold still clinging to  $5000 (closing above $5250) like Trump owes it money

My only question on the situation is, what took so long? Iran has been a thorn in our side since the the Shah of Iran fled to the United States in October 1979 after being overthrown during the Iranian Revolution. He sought medical treatment for cancer, but his arrival contributed to the storming of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran shortly thereafter. Of course after having just wrapped up the highly unpopular Vietnam war, America was in no mood to go to war again, and Jimmy Carter was weaker than Joe Biden in a foot race.

In Trump's video address Saturday:

“We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground, It will be totally obliterated” the president said. “We are going to annihilate their navy, we are going to ensure that the region’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region and the world.” (many sources) 

"The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties. That often happens in war."

Markets don't like uncertainty, and this action certainly removes the what if factor. Of course the leftist msm will root for Iran, we already see them front running the story with reports that Iran is retaliating. Iran would be smart to surrender immediately. 

How Will Markets React 
  • The unwind of the defensive sector rotation
  • Possible spike on the $VIX overnight Sunday Futures followed by an unwind of the fear trade. 
  • We may see a knee jerk reaction in Sunday futures trading, and a spike in Gold, but I think we could see a rally in US equities. This geopolitical clarity could be the catalyst the market needs to shake off the lingering AI fear trade, and pull cash off the sidelines, sparking risk-on sentiment. 

March comes in like a lion, and out like a lamb 
  
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