Page menu

Monday, June 15, 2026

Space Junk, Dead Airlines, and America's Lost Decade

$SPCX closed its first trading day right where it opened — around $160. The 1-minute chart shows a downturned megaphone. Classic consolidation. Watch for a pop Monday morning — new all-time highs, or a head-fake? You already know what I think. ðŸ‘‡     

$DJUSAS Dow Jones Aerospace actually closed lower (-61%) after touching a slightly higher intra-day high. I still think it can go higher. [Link to Friday's chart] 

$DFEN Direxion Daily 3X Leveraged Aerospace & Defense Bull - if the Iran deal falls through, watch for defense names to help lift this one into the stratosphere! Probability seems high; given Trump's record. You may want to set stops when trading leveraged ETF, and review my warnings & guidelines "Word to the Wise: Leveraged ETFs Are Not for the Casual Investor". 

$RKLB Rocket Lab - 1 of the 4 space stocks  - being added to the Nasdaq -  in the article I headlined on Friday [link] pulls back to the 50 day SMA. New highs in the cards. 

Space: The Final Frontier... or Flavor of the Month?

Let's be honest. Space is just the latest in a long line of heavily pumped — and eventually dumped — narratives Wall Street uses to separate retail from their money. We've seen this movie before, cast of characters highlighted in the latest blog (in the P.S. section) — starting with China. 

Dumpster Fire Roll Call Starring 

$ASTS AST SpaceMobile - Starlink competitor, pumped and dumped, right on schedule! Heavy selling volume hit on SpaceX IPO day. Funny how that works.

Chart

After lighting the match on $SMCI Super Micro Friday, I found more candidates to add to the pile. 

The list of stocks making lower lows keeps growing. Is it any wonder the broader market can't hold onto real gains?

Priced In Since April. Now What?

Airlines (another dead sector) are higher on this morning's news, but this is part of the same pricing-in we've seen over the past 2 months. How many times can Wall Street price in the same deal? I'm afraid investors in airline stocks are about to find out the hard way!  

The $NYSE - Same Range Since February   

$NYSE looks poised to finally make a new closing high — its 7th retest in two months. Unimpressive, when you realize it can only pierce a new high on the 47th Iran FOMO news report. 

The pattern mirrors the upturned triangle I flagged on the Dow Aerospace chart. Until the breakout is confirmed — sell the rips.

America's Lost Decade In Full View   

This is what a bear market looks like when nobody's allowed to call it one.

$NYHL — NYSE new all-time highs vs. new all-time lows. Dismal. Market breadth continues to wither. Only a handful of sub-sectors and a handful of stocks can stage short-lived rallies — and only during earnings season. Traders have already figured it out. They've pivoted to South Korea, India, and Europe — all still outperforming US markets.


The Fed's hands are tied. Goldman raised their year-end $SPX target to 6000 on May 20th. Right on cue.

Trump's Iran deal feels rushed — conveniently timed for the G7 and Kevin Warsh's debut at the Federal Reserve. Short covering into the 4th of July could prop things up. Or the market gets dumped squarely in Warsh's lap on day one.

Either Way - Risk Off 

P.S. For context on the lousy relative (broader market) gains — Looking at The $SPY Forest Through The AI Trees — nearly a month ago, and still relevant.


Posted by at No comments:

Friday, June 12, 2026

SpaceX Aerospace Pop, Software, Semis Drop - Rinse & Repeat

Rocket Lab and these four stocks are joining the Nasdaq 100, with SpaceX waiting in the wings (marketwatch) 

 Today is the big day: SpaceX is ready for take off, and the enthusiasm is already carrying over into the aerospace category.

Pump, dump, rinse, repeat. That's been the whole story for the past few years, and the word on the street is today's SpaceX's IPO looks like another coat of paint on the same megillah. In a word: Overpriced

Last time I covered Aerospace I was telling folks to ring the register. "Aerospace Trade Finally Pays.. [Link]" Today the chart is still trying to break out again, and I think we can see a little throw-over out of the triangle pattern it's trading in — but watch it like a hawk, because we could see a reversal once price throws over the top (depending on which type of triangle this is). See the annotations — new highs followed by a reversal, don't say I didn't warn you. New highs are catnip to the algos.    

$DJUSAS (Dow Jones Aerospace) - The chart is conflicted: I can't say with any certainty, whether it's a bearish upturned wedge, or bullish continuation pattern?  SpaceX - Aerospace Breakout or Fake Out? I think the latter.      

Should you chase it? I think SpaceX pops above $200... go for it, but too much sugar may be setting up for a Monday morning hangover. Watch for updates @3xtraders: I'll be charting it live on a 1 min. chart.

Combine SpaceX with the momentum carrying over in the US and Europe after yesterday's Trump statement — a short-covering rally on news that Iran and the US are ready to sign a deal, perhaps at the G7 next week. True or not.

Trump's latest flip-flop was enough to drive the Nasdaq +2.5% and crude back below $90. What that actually does is give Trump more time to stall. The Iranians are stalling too, and I expect the stalemate to continue indefinitely.

The $COMPQ Nasdaq Composite chart speaks volumes. 


 Go back and look at the chart: Trump's pivot from warmonger to peacenik came precisely at the 50 day SMA. Remember that bear trap I warned you about?  

What else is fueling the rally besides short covering? Cash. The cash raises pulling the rug on the semiconductor space. Mike Wilson (Morgan Stanley) basically just said the quiet part out loud. Watch the videoclip for yourself:

I was under the impression money managers were raising cash ahead of the 3 biggest IPOs to ever hit the tape — and they are — but there's something else going on here:

  1. In hindsight, they drove Semis, including the entire South Korean market, into a parabolic flash surge to do a cash raise. Earnings were the fuel, but the moves were accentuated. We've covered this many times — now you're watching the trash get taken to the curb.
  2. AI led the charge too, alongside Software. Same narrative, same basket, same exit — when AI stocks got bid as "the future," software rode shotgun on the same story, and now they're getting dumped together.

I saw CNBC finally mention the 8-day losing streak over yesterday's lunch hour, but otherwise the MSM seems asleep at the switch. Software-mageddon continues for 8 days straight.

The Poster Child For The Latest White Knuckle Moment For AI $SMCI Super Micro ▼

Taking Out The AI Trash

What this all tells me is that AI is just another sector in the rotation. Pump, dump, rinse, and repeat. The never ending list of stocks that don't perform just keeps growing. Now space IPOs? I'll have to sleep on that.  

P.S. I recently covered the entire rotation starting with China (when we were told China was being driven like a meme trade, because they were leading the manufacturing recovery after covid.
And guess who upgraded China near the top? Morgan. 
Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)