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Thursday, April 9, 2026

Yesterday's 1-Day Relief Rally: NOT Even Close to an April 2025 Repeat

After getting caught up on yesterday's charting — which turned out to be WAY easier than expected, because I had already been charting upside targets for weeks — I've pivoted from neutral to bearish. Here's why:

  • Hormuz remains closed. A one-day relief rally don't change that.
  • The same mf'ers who told you to fade last week's rally, are now telling you to chase mag7 stocks #WTF? 
  • The glaring pivot back into crude oil & energy stocks (more... keep reading)  
  • $VIX remains elevated - remember what I said yesterday: "Don't become complacent..."   

Let's cut through the bs and go straight to the charts: 

1. First thing I noticed was the sector rotation back in play, as both $XOM and $CVX were bought right smack dab at the 50 day sma. That signals the return of the risk off trade.  Alerted to that in real time:    

2. $SPY (S&P 500 ETF) - glaring, massive gap left behind on the chart. These typically fill sooner, rather than later. $VIX gap... "".    

Spy Gap Highlighted
Watch for the "trap door" to be flung open, below the 672 level. Obvious gap-fill target, for starters.
SPY trap door (stop hunt) highlighted 

Still Bullish? Here's The Bull Case They're Pushing:

1. A relief rally on the heels of a two-week ceasefire changes everything. NOT! 

2. "$SOX 'almost' traded to new highs" 🤣 I actually heard CNBC Fast Money pushing this slop.

3. Tuesday's rally was "broad based". Even last night's guest Christopher Verrone (CMT Strategas) couldn't fully agree with that assertion. This is nothing like April 2025.   

4. Transports retested the recent highs – Dow theory.  

Bear Case Reality:

1. Hormuz remains closed (4 ships passed...). A 1-day relief rally doesn't change that. 

2. "Close" only counts in horseshoes, and hand grenades. $SOX actually did touch a new high yesterday, so I can't understand what all the table-pounding is about? The level to watch is the 8500 level.  

$SOX (semiconductors) 8500

3. At the end of the day: Mag7 darlings led the rally. The same "AI bubble" stocks that were sold in March. The same names CNBC Fast Money traders have been telling you to avoid. "$META" ring a bell?  

Dan Nathen was mysteriously absent from last night's show after recently telling investors to "fade the rally". Meanwhile, the host is calling it a "5 day winning streak"? Pure, disingenuous, fakery; gaslight.  

Seems the only honest person on last night's panel was Christopher Verrone, who refused to go along with the idea that the rally was broad-based.  

CNBC Fast Money – April 8, 2026 (Grok/AI Edition – Key Moments)
• ~38:47 – Chris Verrone on rally breadth: "Good day internally, not great… Russell 2000…"
• ~41:56 – Tim Seymour pounding the table on semiconductor leadership vs. the S&P.

Stocks to watch: 

$SOX, $TRAN (Trucking, shipping, airlines). Mag7 (more like lag7 or better yet drag7). If these start dragging on the market again, you know the drill.

Energy stocks: $XOM $CVX both bought at the 50 Day on the same 1 day route –no coincidence. Both higher in pre-market.   

P.S. If you caught yesterday's relief rally, which carried over into normal trading hours Wednesday — good for you. Take it! One-day relief rallies are a dime-a-dozen in a bear market. $VIX in the 19-20 zone is not a place to become complacent. We saw a short squeeze just like this in '08, just ahead of the collapse, and as a result most of us were caught off guard when the bottom dropped out of the market.

   

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Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Trump Chickens Out (Again): TACO April 2026 Edition


Same movie (rerun) as last year: 🍿

  • Trump makes outrageous threats.
  • Trump capitulates. 
  • Investors robbed. 
  • Short sellers have a nasty case of Déjà vu. 
Bottom Line: Nobody wins - except maybe Israel?  



The Pinned Tweet That Foretold The Second Annual Taco (the main event)

   (Direct From My Twitter Feed Where Dreams Really Do Come True)


Today's Big Winner: Beaten-up Airline Stocks  

I think I'm going to have a lot of charting to get caught up on at today's open so I better wrap this up quickly. lol  

  1. $SPX Breakout Alerts — Called the futures breakout live ( yesterday Apr 7). 
  2. Energy Trade Unwind + Sector Rotation — Monday’s setup playing out in real time. That $XOM base was cute… until the rotation reversed. As I noted on Monday, that "Chart was flashing pure exhaustion" [link] 


The Verdict: Looking extremely bearish for the entire "heavily pumped" energy space.



  • Will Valero ($VLO) fare better? CNBC Fast Money gave it a fresh pump Monday night. 🤣
  • $80 Crude Oil Target? I called for this yesterday morning. Total crickets from the oil traders then—but they’re listening now.
  • What the Oil Bros missed: Crude Oil already broke out above $80. Nothing moves in a straight line. #Brent #CrudeOil pic.twitter.com/JYPy0Oi78f

Today's Game Plan Stay Nimble  

Am I chasing today's gains? No. No change in plans. Watching this nutty action from the sidelines until we see real traders return from vacation, just in time for Bank Earnings to kick off. 

Pro Tip: Don’t become overly complacent with the $VIX still trading in the 20s. Volatility and gamma can flip the Wheel of Death fast.

Veteran Market Timer | Trading the absurdity, one TACO at a time.
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