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Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Best Trade of The Year, plus Iran Looking Like More of the SOS

SpaceX was up another +18% on Monday and continues to rally straight into the target I called Friday morning — ahead of the IPO. I picked that target based on a number of factors that have absolutely nothing to do with valuation and everything to do with investors and algos (alike) being drawn to key psychological targets (and highly disciplined, programmed momentum algos driving momentum... (topic for another day).     

$DJUSAS Aerospace Target Was Taken Out As well 

tweet screenshot


Yesterday's Big Headline was the announcement of an Iran "Deal" (over the weekend). But read the fine print and it’s the same recycled hope we’ve been pricing in since April. Yep, More of the Same Old Shit. 

What really sent market's rocketing higher on Monday? Some say it's, "window dressing", as we near the end of the second quarter, and that fits the cyclical pattern. Everything that rallied in the 2nd quarter rallied back to retest the recent highs in yesterday's session - AI (+3%), Small Caps, and Mag7 stocks (now flying under a new banner "hyperscalers) $NDX (+3%)  Read: HYPERSCALERS HUSTLE: The definitive CRASH COURSE 

Semiconductors were up +5.67% (led by Asia as usual) - including new highs in $AMD. Top performers on the $SPX: Western Digital, Micron, Seagate, $ON Semiconductor → all the usual suspects. $NDX Nasdaq 100 leaders included $ARM, $LAM, Microchip Technology ($MCHP) and finally Cramer/ Jensen Huang fav. Marvell, of course.  

Of course I saw this snapback rally in semis coming from several thousand miles away - last week. 

Upside Gap Fill Target Alerted to 11 hrs. Ago 

  Speaking of South Korea: 

Best Trade of The Year 3X South Korea Bull $KORU +600% (6X) 

Up 4000% over the past 14 months. Reminder: I wrote the book on "Max Gains" (compound gains) in leveraged ETF's, over decade ago [link] and today you see them running my playbook. If you think you know where the next momentum trade can be found, let me know. 



Back to Highly Bifurcated US Markets     

Bullish Names Flying Under Most Investor's Radar (covered on May 19th), $CAT, CMI, $TT (Train), Corning (+5%) all higher - all datacenter plays. 

NOT, the relief rally I expected.   

What didn't rally on the news that the war is over? - US Treasuries (barely up). Crickets from the msm on that front. I've sidelined the entire 401k, because when all I see the msm reporting is bs, I get nervous wondering what the real story is.   

US Treasuries — the market that actually prices real risk — said we aren't buying this story. 

Of course oil sold off to 3 month lows, but whether that can continue, remains to be seen.  

I'm looking at yesterday as just more of the SOS being mostly driven in Asia (no wonder China a is cracking down on off shore trading), and just another excuse to squeeze some more juice out of AI trade. 

Take Care,

AA 

P.S. Still believe AI is the next Industrial Revolution? Read: AI: The Marketing Genius Wall Street Swallowed Whole

    


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Monday, June 15, 2026

Space Junk, Dead Airlines, and America's Lost Decade

$SPCX closed its first trading day right where it opened — around $160. The 1-minute chart shows a downturned megaphone. Classic consolidation. Watch for a pop Monday morning — new all-time highs, or a head-fake? You already know what I think. ðŸ‘‡     

$DJUSAS Dow Jones Aerospace actually closed lower (-61%) after touching a slightly higher intra-day high. I still think it can go higher. [Link to Friday's chart] 

$DFEN Direxion Daily 3X Leveraged Aerospace & Defense Bull - if the Iran deal falls through, watch for defense names to help lift this one into the stratosphere! Probability seems high; given Trump's record. You may want to set stops when trading leveraged ETF, and review my warnings & guidelines "Word to the Wise: Leveraged ETFs Are Not for the Casual Investor". 

$RKLB Rocket Lab - 1 of the 4 space stocks  - being added to the Nasdaq -  in the article I headlined on Friday [link] pulls back to the 50 day SMA. New highs in the cards. 

Space: The Final Frontier... or Flavor of the Month?

Let's be honest. Space is just the latest in a long line of heavily pumped — and eventually dumped — narratives Wall Street uses to separate retail from their money. We've seen this movie before, cast of characters highlighted in the latest blog (in the P.S. section) — starting with China. 

Dumpster Fire Roll Call Starring 

$ASTS AST SpaceMobile - Starlink competitor, pumped and dumped, right on schedule! Heavy selling volume hit on SpaceX IPO day. Funny how that works.

Chart

After lighting the match on $SMCI Super Micro Friday, I found more candidates to add to the pile. 

The list of stocks making lower lows keeps growing. Is it any wonder the broader market can't hold onto real gains?

Priced In Since April. Now What?

Airlines (another dead sector) are higher on this morning's news, but this is part of the same pricing-in we've seen over the past 2 months. How many times can Wall Street price in the same deal? I'm afraid investors in airline stocks are about to find out the hard way!  

The $NYSE - Same Range Since February   

$NYSE looks poised to finally make a new closing high — its 7th retest in two months. Unimpressive, when you realize it can only pierce a new high on the 47th Iran FOMO news report. 

The pattern mirrors the upturned triangle I flagged on the Dow Aerospace chart. Until the breakout is confirmed — sell the rips.

America's Lost Decade In Full View   

This is what a bear market looks like when nobody's allowed to call it one.

$NYHL — NYSE new all-time highs vs. new all-time lows. Dismal. Market breadth continues to wither. Only a handful of sub-sectors and a handful of stocks can stage short-lived rallies — and only during earnings season. Traders have already figured it out. They've pivoted to South Korea, India, and Europe — all still outperforming US markets.


The Fed's hands are tied. Goldman raised their year-end $SPX target to 6000 on May 20th. Right on cue.

Trump's Iran deal feels rushed — conveniently timed for the G7 and Kevin Warsh's debut at the Federal Reserve. Short covering into the 4th of July could prop things up. Or the market gets dumped squarely in Warsh's lap on day one.

Either Way - Risk Off 

P.S. For context on the lousy relative (broader market) gains — Looking at The $SPY Forest Through The AI Trees — nearly a month ago, and still relevant.


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