Page menu

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Stocks Hit New All Time Highs, Netflix $NFLX, Berkshire, Bitcoin, Gold, FOMC, and more


Stocks hit all time highs: 

We're seeing ROW (rest of world) ex-US hitting all time highs. You'd think Bloomberg would be bragging about that historic comeback, but maybe they're too busy reporting 9 day winning steaks...? 

$VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF  - hitting all time highs 

 

EURO STOXX 50 ETF - hitting all time new highs

 

Japan

 $EWJ (MSCI Japan ETF) - testing the top of a range.


You know who is heavily invested in Japan, right? Buffett 


$BRK/A - Berkshire Hathaway - New all time highs followed by a nearly -5% decline on Monday's (sell the news) event, and I think nobody has more to lose in the next stock market crash than Warren Buffet. 

 



You know what else sold off on Monday? 

Netflix $NFLX 

 Gold & Gold miners

Gold miners finally make their run as predicted weeks ago, but what took so long...?  

The chance of nuclear war between India and Pakistan was clearly the catalyst that Gold needed, for a powerful snap-back rally 

Then came the reversal: 

 

Gold prices fall in India amid global trends and geopolitical tensions

Bitcoin 

No sooner than Gold reversed, we saw a sector rotation back into Bitcoin. I believe that in part, this was due to the fact that Bitcoin priced in Euro's had decoupled from the Bitcoin priced in $USD trade, as speculators continues to rotate from one sector into another, and I think this will continue until we see a deflationary spiral take every market lower.

 What Next? 

What next is the FOMC statement, and Chairman Powell's speech 

 Regardless of what the Fed statement says, there is a 90% certainty that markets will rally on the news. 

 

From Saturday's update: 

I suspect the next Fed meeting could provide a near term capitulation point for global markets.   


GL, AA


 



Posted by at No comments:

Saturday, May 3, 2025

Extensive Saturday Market Update $SPX DCS Charts Still Bullish?

Wrapping up week 2 of our post-Easter rally:  

I find it amazing that the same people who helped trash the market during a 4 day market crash in April, by stoking fear over Trump's tariffs, are now seen egging on a "historic winning streak". So disingenuous!

 CNBC  - trying to sell Pro subscriptions to newbie investors



Technically the market may have been up 10 days in a row, but Monday, Tuesday, and Wed., we saw little to no gains.

Wednesday was exciting, as the market dipped at the open - on a negative GDP print.

Here's the Dow rallying off the 20 day moving average. 

 


$SPX Daily Candlestick Chart - See the moving average targets on this chart. As of Friday's close we're getting close to the 200 day moving average, and the NYSE is already there! 

Very orderly buying as I predicted 2 weeks ago

Comparing this rally to the October 2022 rally 

Similar looking shakeout, followed by a similar rebound. The trajectory is basically straight up. Although still nothing "historic". If the $NYSE can rally another 700 points this rally will match the 20% gains we saw back in Oct 2022.      

 



Europe  

European Stocks have seen a historic, meteoric rise! 

The folks at Bloomberg are actually rooting for European markets, and the hedge funds behind the scenes.

Hedge Funds

 

Gains in leveraged ETF's also compound, if you can manage to stick with the winning side of the trade.

 What Next? 

It's going to be interesting to see if markets are going to crash into the next Federal reserve announcement, and May Options Expiration, or will we see a long period of consolidation, once the top is confirmed?

Tops in a bear market tend to reverse violently, while interim tops - between waves A and B - for instance - can consolidate for a long period of time. 

Scenario #1 

Now that the bears are trapped I would expect them to remain trapped, going into the Summer, as talk of a China deal persists. We'll call this the, "buy the rumor", trade. 

We're also seeing the market rally on bad news, and a fear of missing out, although you always see this sentiment in a bear market rally, and especially in wave 2.

Read more »
Posted by at No comments:

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Market Update: Bitcoin, $GDX Gold, Earning, Jobs report Friday

 Picking up from where I left off:

Saturday Market Update: Bitcoin, $GDX Gold miners, $VIX, Tesla, and other Bear Traps

We're back to markets that hardly move for days on end, and it's not even Summer yet. 

I'm just going to assume massive short positions are being put on ahead of the next Trump dump. 

Gold broke out a little but we haven't seen a sector rotation out of crypto, yet...  

April (Gold) Contracts expired 4/28/25, yesterday, and that may have been the only thing holding prices up. I just don't want anyone left holding the bag in Gold, on my call for a relief rally.

If Apple and Amazon earnings don't disappoint, then perhaps we get a way stronger than expected Employment number on Friday. 

Take Care, AA


Posted by at No comments:

Saturday, April 26, 2025

Saturday Market Update: Bitcoin, $GDX Gold miners, $VIX, Tesla, and other Bear Traps

Wrapping up last weeks market action:  

We saw a little bull trap set on Easter Monday, followed by markets driven back to around the same levels we were trading at 2 weeks ago, by Friday's close. Not much of a game changer, and not the rally I was expecting... 

From last weeks outlook:  

 "Stocks actually look great here, and the $VIX is 50% off the recent highs, and that means that the manufactured fear - propagated by the mass distraction lame stream media - is drying up. 
The continuing consolidation probably pushes back a continuation of the rally - which started last week - a few more weeks."

I expected the market to consolidate a little longer, before seeing a more sustainable rally, but once the $VIX broke below the 30 level it was all over but the crying for the Trump haters.  

My previous outlook still stands, which means that it looks like this rally is a little premature, and short sighted.

The Catalyst for last week's trade seemed to be more about manipulating the weekly options market, more than anything else....

 I'm not an Options expert, but I see volatility being manipulated (sold) through the use of 0DTE options, and I suspect Dow 40k (round number), 5500 on the $SPX, and even Bitcoin 95k were the main drivers...

 Bullish traders came back from Passover with a skip in their step and said, "hey let's squeeze some short sellers", and a market rally was born! 

Of course the biggest payoff was in driving several heavily shorted stocks & leveraged ETFs...  

$TNA the leveraged (3X small-caps bull) is a good example of this:   

See where the price action was jacked back above the lower pattern line? It's no wonder that the Russell 2000 was able to close basically unchanged.


 Tesla up 10% 

Tesla - why else would Tesla investors wait until Friday to drive the stock up 10%? Weekly Options   

 Tesla Stock Climbs Despite Pulling Guidance, but Is More Downside Ahead? fool.com

The short sellers were further squeeze as the price action was driven back above the 50 day moving average, in order to trigger buying programs.

And of course the leveraged Tesla bear ETF $TSLS was used to that end. 

See where the rug was pulled....


   

This is the new normal manipulation though the 0DTE and leveraged ETF's

What I didn't mention in the above tweet is that leveraged ETF's are being used by the already over leveraged hedge funds to apply additional leverage to which-ever positions they choose, but if you dig a little deeper into the tweet he was responding to: 

Bill Ackman

"I believe that it is much more likely that recent sharp moves in these asset classes is due to highly leveraged market participants being forced out of positions than due to fundamentals."

And he's absolutely right!  

Of course he can complain all he wants; the Hedge funds are not giving up their advantage any time soon!

Gold & Gold Miners 

I think we could see another push in Gold miners, and especially if we're going to see another washout ahead of Memorial Day. 

$GDX - Support is 46.95 and I think we could easily see it pumped to another recent high.   

We may see money rotate out of the wildly overpriced Bitcoin market, help to fuel the rally back into gold? 

It should be an interesting next 2 weeks, as the next Fed meeting approaches. 

Take Care, AA 





Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)