Can "Crude Oil Go Higher? + More Sector Rotations To Follow

 When the broader marker hardly moves for weeks at a time, and I find myself all caught up on charting,  that gives me more time to analyze geopolitical issues, so bear with me...  

Continuing on the same topic we touched on last week: 

Israel's Attack on Iran used as an excuse to drive energy prices higher 

 

The official narrative: 

UK inflation to edge higher if oil prices push up energy costs, "experts warn". How did this become the official narrative. #CrudeOil #PsyOp https://t.co/0TymrVK6OP

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) June 21, 2025

 Investors are dissuaded from chasing the Oil rally 

I've seen every news outlet from Fox, to Bloomberg to Suzi Orman, warning investors not to chase the rally in oil. Normally I would take this with a grain of salt, and think that the mass distraction lame stream media is simply setting up the retail investor for another bear trap, but this time seems different.     

Motive: The motive could be that the powers that be are trying to keep inflation under control, but I think it's just as likely that they want to keep energy prices low, so that so called green energy can compete...      

In the previous update I revealed how the smart money continues to rotate from the tech sector - on pull backs - into what has clearly become a new safe haven trade - energy.  

Even Friday we saw Energy close 1% higher, as tech and Crypto were liquidated. 

Speaking of Friday's close, here's where I see the fast money going next 

 Small Caps 

 $IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) Set to rally off the lower channel on a 60 min. chart 

 

More Sector Rotations 

I see even better trades coming, and I'm even willing to put out alerts in really time, but only for the right price: 

I just found 3 stocks on sale, plus a juicy sector trade. all yours +premium service for the next 3 months, for a 1 time donation of $1000. https://t.co/ZGWeDhFNlp

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) June 20, 2025

Make that $999, if you're interested...  

 Take care, AA 

Israel's Attack on Iran used as an excuse to drive energy prices higher

 

According to USA today Israel's first strikes of their air campaign, targeting Iran's nuclear program, kicked off on June 12th Israel-Iran timeline usatoday.com 

Crude oil actually broke out on June 1st, so government insiders knew what was coming... 

Of course when breaking news breaks, algorithmic trading programs kick in, so we still saw another big move to the upside on the breaking news.  

We see this more and more, as the same news is priced in, several times over... 

Another good example is Coinbase. It was recently announced that it is  going to be added to the $SPX, and many market insiders piled in, ahead of the news. Then when the algos were triggered the stock jumped another 20%. Friday we saw it up another 16%     

 $USO US Oil breaks out above the 50 day moving average on June 1st, after 2 weeks of consolidation  

 

WTI Crude is up 23% for the month of June 

#NatGas is also rallying, and this is also helping the energy trade, the trade I called out for several weeks prior.... 

 It was super easy to predict that the bull-tards would first drive tech stocks higher, and then rotate into energy, because this has been their MO for at least 2 years. 

Comparing the $NYFANG (tech) to the $DJOEP (Dow Jones Oil Production & Exploration) 

Energy leads then Tech leads, and vice versa. Also see Tech stocks trading at new all time highs, as CNBC suggests that this may be a "buying opportunity"?   

Tech stocks make new all time highs ahead of June Options Expiration

 Today is June Options Expiration (triple witching), and it looks like the bulls are intent on getting paid on their bullish Options, which they put on back in April (no doubt at $VIX +35 levels). What a racket! 

Take Care, AA 

P.S. It's becoming painfully clear that the Fed has no intention of making the stock market, or the housing sector great again, anytime soon.  

 

Fed's Jerome Powell says tariffs will drive inflation higher

 

Top economist warns America is heading toward economic disaster the Fed can't fix

 

 

 

Best Trade of the Month, as $SOX (semiconductors) Lead Markets higher

 It's already time to declare victory again, after Monday's monster rally in the Semiconductor space. It's a little unusual to find such good market action during the summer, so you gotta take what you can get.   

The lying lame stream media are all reporting that, "big Tech led yesterday's rally", when in actuality is was Semiconductor stocks, including NVIDIA ($NVDA), and several other names in the space making new recent highs ($AMD, Micron, Broadcom, and $KLAC to name a few). 

As I blogged  last week, I suspected Semis were being pumped by CNBC Pro traders, and low and behold - after Friday's 1 day sell-off  - BOOM - yet another short squeeze. 

 See: 

Market Update + Best performing stocks for the week ending 6/6/2025

 Here I am calling the trade out, just ahead of  Friday's close: 

Semiconductors bounce off support... $SOX $SOXS $SOXL $SOXX #Chips #NVIDIA $NVDA #Iran schmiran pic.twitter.com/JtHvR1DCfZ

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) June 13, 2025

 $VIX remains low

I think most investors were not fooled by the +20 VIX  

If the powers that be want to take the market down, then they know how to drive the $VIX to 60, on bad news. lol

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) June 13, 2025

 

I even offered a simple $VIX chart to prove it was another bear trap 

$VIX hits resistance. $IYM Russell 2000 was bought at the 50 day. $SPX hasn't even tested the 2- day. This is a nothing burger unless and until support breaks. PERIOD pic.twitter.com/qz5ZEvLx6Z

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) June 13, 2025

ChaChing! +10% gains on the $SOXL 

It was as easy as identifying which sector is being pumped by the fast money, and following the action.  

Wall Street obviously isn't too worried about Israel ramping up their aggression in the middle east... In fact they probably can't wait to test the latest laser weapon technology.   

Israel to show fresh weapons at Paris Air Show 

Take care, AA 

  

 

   

Connecting the dots

Picking up from Friday's update: 

Israel attacks Iran as expected. Energy trade confirmed! 

and the one before that; where I identified the massive influx of money flooding into the defense sector 

See:  Mysterious Market Action Revealed Iran/ Russia Gold Oil Defense Contractors

$TA125 (Tel Aviv 125 Index) Gold (miners), & Defense contractors are marching in lockstep...

 

 I forgot to include the recent highs we just saw in Crypto markets! 

 And now you know why certain markets have been out-performing every other market!

Connecting the dots:  

At first, I thought the ridiculous run in Gold had something to do with Trump, or the attempted Trump assassinations, or that the market actually believed that inflation was still a thing, but more than a year later, it all makes sense. 

Next let's compare the recent $VIX action to that of the so-called Trump tariff "uncertainty".  

There really is no comparison... 

The $VIX had no problem breaking out above the 50 day moving average, as the Trump tariffs story unfolded. 

The $VIX remains contained as Israel ramps up their assault on Iran  

 $VIX dcs chart  

It could be that the powers that be are slow-walking a market correction, but I suspect that we're about to see a deal struck between the White House, and Iran. Was this the desired outcome? Probably    

Why else would Israel wait until just days before a meeting is scheduled between the US & Iran? 

You also see the lame stream media going out of its way to explain that the US had no involvement... 

They must think the American people are as stupid as the Iranians lol  

Take care, AA