The Crypto Trade, Bitcoin $IBIT, $XRP, The Stablecoin Act, and the $USD

 Quick Recap 

In my last blog I predicted a reversal in the $USD and we got a reversal in the $USD. 

 That is, until it bumped up against the 50 day moving average, last week.   

$USD  - is sold at the 50 day moving average. Also see the general shape of the pattern on this chart, a broadening triangle, or reverse symmetrical triangle, as Elliotticians call it. I'm seeing this pattern on lots of charts, and points to plenty more volatility in the near future.  

 The Broadening Top Pattern on $XRP for instance 

 $XRP whipsaws back to a new high 

Speaking of Elliott Wave theory it seems like, more, and more nowadays, the EW system is becoming less useful, and that's because of machine buying, and slight of hand (manipulation), rather than human emotion moving markets - I've touched on this many times, in previous blogs - BUT I think it does work in highly emotional markets like crypto.

Many investors seem to think that because markets have whipsawed back to new highs, that must be bullish when that is more indicative of a highly emotional market. 

The Crypto Trade     

Most recently the smart money ran crypto up, right into July Options Expiration, which just happened to fall on the day of the passage of the Stable Coin Act. How smart is that?!     

This is a good example of why you should always be watching the calendar for buying opportunities. I'm sure I'm not the only one who's seeing July Options Expiration as a capitulation point, and the retail investor is already being encouraged to "buy the dips". 

🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/Vb7YRCaCJ1

— Eric Trump (@EricTrump) July 18, 2025

 I personally prefer to buy the dips, and sell the rips, especially in a highly volatile market like Crypto.

Warning this trade is not for the faint of heart, and attempting to trade the leveraged crypto ETFs can be even more deadly, where a 20% daily move is NOT at all uncommon.    

Broader Market  

It seems like we're back to trading a market that can't even pull back, and that's an unhealthy market.

 I watched some clown come on CNBC, after Friday's closing bell, trying to convince the retail investor that "momentum" can carry the market higher, but the truth of the matter is that momentum has slowed drastically, and we have a Fed meeting coming up.

If you follow my X platfom feed then you should already know I'm extremely bearish Crypto, and especially when you see it being pumped on CNBC fast money, after more than a 100% run (in Ethereum, and several other memecoin). 

 Pinned Tweet Friday 

Remember this #CNBC face. This dufus told investors to sit on their hands, back in April. Now he says, "investors should be long both" (Bitcoin $BTC & Ethereum #ETH). 😆 pic.twitter.com/vi512XeCpv

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) July 18, 2025

A couple details I failed to mention in that tweet is that CNBC's so called "chart master" didn't even have a crypto chart to show... and this is their standard MO. They pump whatever is running hot, for ratings.

He also said "Everyone should own "Bitcoin & Ethereum" lol   

The only reason they're talking about Ethereum at this point is because it was the only thing rallying last week. Believe me, I watch the tickers every day, and this continues to be an otherwise dull market.  

Charts talk bullshit walks, so let's get to the charts.  

Bitcoin $BTC  

Bearish Leading Diagonal Triangle Pattern spotted on Bitcoin Saturday Morning 5 min. Chart View 

Longer term, I'm seeing what looks like a spinning top candle on the weekly chart, so maybe we don't see a major reversal until next week. This gives the smart money plenty of time to off load their bitcoin to the retail investor, as we trade into the next FOMC meeting. 

 I suggest you pay for TradingView charts if you want to trade Crypto. You can always use the free version, at LiveCharts.co.uk charts, but you can't save... and that puts you at a huge disadvantage.

Another option is to chart the Bitcoin ETF $IBIT

$IBIT  

 This is the bullish EW forecast I came up with on Friday, and tweeted out on the interwebs 

If that EW count is correct we should see a sharp correction in a powerful correction in wave "C" 

I suppose we could see a relief rally, on the FOMC statement, and that may continue into next Friday.  

 Not all the news on Crypto is bullish despite all the hype you're seen being pushed by the networks, and on social media.   

JPMorgan sees Stablecoin Market Hitting $500B by 2028, far Below Bullish Forecasts CoinDesk

Take Care, AA 

       

 

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