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Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Summer Wrap-Up: Post Labor Day View: Light Volume, Heavy Rotation

Light volume continues to dominate this week, but that didn't stop fund managers from dumping European equities overnight. 

The talking heads are blaming higher crude oil prices, HSBC quietly let the cat out of the bag:
  That's dragging on US futures, not a retest of the recent highs in oil. 


Rotation trades that continue to work: 

1. Energy - continues to break out to new all time highs. 
2. The rigged on light holiday volume $SOXL trade in semiconductors. I spotted this one coming from a mile away, but sadly I had to cut my gains short, because I was trading while on a road trip. 

3. Financials - government protected (still making slightly higher highs). As long as the $VIX continues to be beaten - like a rented mule - that can continue. 


4. Healthcare/ Biotech was leading... until yesterday morning. 

Compare That to A Multitude of Trade That Are NOT Working 

Starting With Gold Miners: August 30th I was calling the sell-off in Gold, and gold miners "overdone", and low-and-behold we caught a nice bounce - going into last Thursday's closing bell - exactly where I sold the rip. We saw a sharp pullback on Friday, but buyers rushed in before I could buy the dip. I think we could see another bounce this morning, as the mad rush for hard assets continues, but I wouldn't be caught dead in this trade. Consider this a warning, after the trade suddenly fell flat on its face... Play with fire, and you're liable to get burned.  

Tech stocks: Doesn't matter if you call them Mag7, or AI Hyperscalers,  
FOMO buying in big tech/ AI names is dead. Don't forget Dow Technology stocks $DJUSTC rallied over 100% - April 2025 - June 2026, and still need to correct. When, who knows? Sell Rosh Hashana, buy Yom Kippur, NEVER seems to work as planned. Will this time be different? Probably not.        

Don't Confuse Whipsawing Markets with a Bull Market  

Case in point $ARK - I called out this trade back in Feb. [link] - holds lots of Tesla, $SPCX (Musk bets), Coinbase, $HOOD ( recently lifted by the snap-back rally in crypto). The pattern clearly shows the price action whipsawing in a broadening triangle pattern - still trading below the 2025 high.  

I trolled Kathy Wood early this morning: Basically told her to sell her own fund. 
Nobody trades that junk, but it's a perfect example of why I like to dissect funds into each of their individual components: The chart confirms that the entire late summer rally was driven on the heels of yet another speculative rally in trash - including crypto. That's not a bull market. 

But Not Only Crypto & AI: 
Several markets continue to whipsaw, and retest the April highs, but at the end of the day stocks remain trapped in a range. I still think we're still on track for a sharp correction, and 4 months sideways action - on light summer volume - doesn't change that. The April 2025 rally was overdone, and the April 2026 rally, even more so. 

Continued Lack of Leadership 

Tech (minus $NVDA) no longer leading. $FNGS, even $NYFANG continues to trade at Memorial Day levels. 





The market is more bifurcated than ever, and even agriculture has joined the rotation party. That's a hell of a lot for the average investor to wrap their head around. 

As I said: Volume is light, and that makes predicting the near term, nearly impossible. Hopefully we get some more clarity, once the adults return to the table. Looking ahead to the next FOMC meeting - Sept. 16th - 1 week from today. 

In the meantime: I'm watching crude oil trading with the $VIX. IF (big if) Trump convinces Russia and Ukraine to agree to even a temporary cease fire, the whole fear trade is bound to suddenly unwind - just ahead of the midterms. 
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Sunday, August 30, 2026

Gold vs Bitcoin: Decoupling, or Debasement Trade Rotation?

Let's begin with a mind blowing chart view that I'm sure nobody else is pointing to this morning: 

 Spot Gold Price In Euros - 40 year chart - In hindsight: the snapback rally in gold was triggered as the price action bounced off the upper channel line on the golden $EUR - not on dollar weakness, bond yields, Bessent, or the endless media speculation about what Kevin Warsh might say at Jackson Hole - media saturation. Gold priced in EUROs simply bounced off the upper trend line. 


Funny you don't hear about the collapse of the EURO, only the $USD  - meanwhile the EURO priced in gold reads like the tape on a worthless penny stock. Like a failed experiment.  

Who else's currency is in deep trouble? punchline: Whose isn't?  The Australia's Ausi Dollar! Homework assignment: Chart the gold rally in Ausi dollars. 

And they just happen to mine gold there! Ever hear of Newmont? 

Needless to say: Gold miners were run up AHEAD of Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole - 

 That wasn't the only warning I gave that Jackson Hole was beginning to look like a "sell the news" event, for gold miners. 

Friday Morning CNBC was seen pumping "Newmont" $NEM, and materials stocks (craftily setting the bull trap): 


What followed was a massive bear raid on gold miners. Coincidence? 🤷 

See the conviction buying on the 3X bear ETF - record volume! 

 Is this snap reaction the beginning of a larger sell-off in precious metals? That remains to be seen, but the conviction buying in the $GDXD should give you pause. 

I'm obviously not the only one who was anticipating the move that broke the chart patterns we were watching - in Thursday's update [linked]

I think Friday may have been a little over-done - and given all the short interest heading into a banking holiday on Monday (in Europe). Labor Day in 2 weeks. 

Gold vs Bitcoin: Decoupling, or Debasement Trade Rotation

Bitcoin ended rather weak, and the short sellers are already licking their chops. 

Here's why...: 

Bitcoin seems to be trading counter to gold - may even be a new rotation within the debasement trade. 
$BTC used to trade more like a high beta tech asset, before perception changed. Today it trades more like gold's moody cousin who missed the family meeting. 🤣

 The $GOLD:$GBTC (Gold Priced in Bitcoin) is a chart that has to be seen, to be believed: Shows exactly why the rip your face off rally in Gold, the biggest move we've seen in several months, was immediately followed by a face melting rally in Bitcoin, and if you follow Peter Schiff you know these 2 factions have been battling since  last Nov., 2025. Refresher: Crypto collapsed, and gold, and silver surged. I covered it back in Dec. - "When Flash Surges and Flash Crashes Collide: Silver's Post-Christmas Magic Trick"  [linked]  

 


AI confirms Bitcoin is absolutly being traded in gold, and the proof is in the charts!: 


Take care this week, as trading volume dries up again, heading into Labor Day.   

P.S. 

Beware of shadowy characters who command a massive presence on X, and Telegram: 




One shocking example of an account I had previously blocked - unblocked just to take a closer look: 

 

Follow the links at your own risk

    A quick Gemini/AI query reveals what may be hidden behind the curtain: 

 1. Flipper (The Tool)

Flipper Zero is a popular, open-source portable multi-tool used by tech enthusiasts, developers, and hardware hackers. It interacts with physical hardware and wireless frequencies (RFID, NFC, Infrared, and Sub-GHz). 
  • In a Web3 context, "flippers" also refers to a specific trader persona who acquires digital assets (like NFTs or token presales) strictly to sell them immediately for a quick profit. [1]
2. Degen (The Archetype)
Short for "degenerate," this is a slang term originating in DeFi (Decentralized Finance) and crypto communities. A degen represents a high-risk crypto trader who buys into speculative, unverified tokens or experimental projects without doing traditional due diligence. When paired with Flipper, it points to a specific demographic crossover: hardware hackers who apply the same high-risk, "try it and see if it breaks" mentality to hardware exploitation and custom radio configurations.
3. Threador (The Target/Protocol Hack)
This is a wordplay blending Thread (the smart home wireless mesh protocol) with the "or" suffix commonly found in crypto personas (like Investor or Liquidator). [1, 2]
  • The Hacking Angle: Security researchers utilize the Flipper Zero to explore and audit the Thread smart-home protocol. By hooking up low-cost external radio dev boards (like an nRF52840 or ESP32-C6) via the Flipper Zero GPIO pins, users act as "Threadors." They inject traffic, build OpenThread boundary nodes, and audit the low-level data packets passing through Thread-enabled smart doors and IoT appliances. 

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