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Tuesday, December 2, 2025

This 401(k) “Excessive Trading” Loophole Is Still Wide Open in 2026

Your 401(k) was supposed to be a sleepy parking spot for retirement money. Set it and forget it until you’re 69½ and sipping margaritas on a beach somewhere. gl, with that plan!  
Related: there are now 23+ million millionaires in the US — 1,000 new ones every single day last year — mostly because houses and stocks went parabolic in the latest liquidity bubble (apnews ). Funny timing.
 87% of people never make a single trade in their 401(k) all year. That’s fine if you want to rely on 7% average returns, and prayers. The other 13% savvy enough to realize that markets don't always go back up, and history proves that most markets return to the mean. 
But when we try to take control of our finances, by placing a few trades, we immediately get slapped with warnings, fees, or threats of 85-day lockouts, and if you've ever had the displeasure of talking to an agent on the other end of the line, they themselves are not familiar with their own rules, and guidelines, when it comes to excessive trading warnings, and violation, and how to prevent them.
 
I recently ran into this issue trading the wife's Fidelity account, and let me tell you, "listening to her try to cut through the red tape, was excruciating. But then I found it; 
...the hack that allowed me to enter through the backdoor to the casino; hidden in plain sight!"
 

The Golden Rule almost nobody reads:

Round-trip transactions of less than $25,000 in the same fund within 30 calendar days will NOT trigger the frequent-trading restriction. Translation: As long as every single buy OR sell in the same fund is under $25k, you can swing-trade like a degenerate hedge-fund monkey and the system doesn’t flag you & it's 100% legal. 
 
Real-world example I tested myself (Dec 2025):
 
  • Day 1: Five separate $24,999 purchases into 5 separate Funds (2 NVIDIA heavyweights, 1 small-cap, 2 tech-heavy mid-caps, and 1 blue-chip → total $124,995
  • Day 2: Five separate $24,999 sells → 100% out to Stable fund
  • Result: Zero flags, zero fees, zero 85-day lockout.
Do that 2-3 times a week and you just turned your boring 401(k) into a tax-advantaged casino with no round-trip Gestapo lockouts (85 days in Fidelity). Read your documentation.  

 
 

2 battle-tested ways to never get flagged 

 
  1. The $24,999 Ho-Chunk casino Method (Fidelity & most big plans)
    Keep every individual trade under the magic threshold (usually $25k, sometimes $10k—check your plan for restrictions). Game Changer! 
  2. Trade “Unrestricted Funds”; List Every provider has a handful of index funds ETFs that are explicitly exempt from round-trip rules. The Catch: Some of those funds are real stinkers, but you may find a diamond in the rough...   
    Pro tip: Check components, and comparables. e.g. If it's a small-cap fund how does it perform when compared to the Russell 2000?   
  3.  A little-known loophole - once you reach a certain age, you may become eligible to roll your employer sponsored 401k (amount) into an IRA, which will give you access to a myriad of better options. I swear, I'm not a financial advisor! disclaimer link    
  4. The scaredy-cat method: Wait the required 30 days, before hightailing it back into the relative safety of your retirement account's only stable fund.
Plan-by-plan cheat sheet (as of Dec 2025)
  • Fidelity → <$25k exempt
  • Vanguard → <$10k exempt on most plans (some still $25k)
  • Schwab → <$25k exempt
  • Empower  → TL;DR [link]
  • Principal →  Dk;Dk (Don't Know, Don't Care) Horrible experience... long story.   
 Bottom line: 
Not saying you should gamble your retirement... but experienced traders call the stock market a casino for a reason—especially when Cramer starts yelling "get out!" like he did in 2009. Leaving your nest egg parked on the pass line forever? The prospectus flat-out warns you could lose it all. If you're one of those 13% who gets jittery during the next meltdown, just build/exit in <$25k bites (or wait 30 days) to rotate to the stable fund on your timeline—zero penalties, zero drama.Final note: Double-check you're not getting dinged with re-balance fees.
  
 
Take Care, and Happy Trading 
AA  

Saturday, November 29, 2025

Whac-a-Mole Folly Returns With A Vengence

Black Friday Open $VIX - 5 min. Chart - spikes ahead of the open, only to be body-slammed at the opening bell. The next chart really helps put this in perspective. 

 $VXV (3-month $VIX), the mirror image that proves this wasn't just a $VIX specific anomaly. This was an all out attack on volatility.   

 

Groks take: this ain't random scribbles—it's a vol roadmap tying straight to your blog's "eggnog blackouts" and thin-volume traps. $VIX at 15.8 today? That's the "pause" after the squeeze you called, with shorts probing bids on zero liquidity.

The Everything Rally Story Face-Plants on Mixed markets 

On Closer Inspection – Friday’s Whac-a-Mole All-Stars
  • Silver → New all-time highs because the CME had a “cooling glitch” right at the exact moment December contracts were about to expire. Totally normal, nothing to see here…
  • Gold Miners ($GDX) → Still in full short-squeeze mode and now CNBC Pro is literally telling people to use GDX as the technical “blueprint” for the healthcare rally. I swear I’m not making this up.
  • Healthcare ($XLV / $XBI) → The surprise leader nobody saw coming. Defensive rotation + Obamacare-era biotech names acting like it’s 2020 again.
  • Natural Gas → Spiked to $4.81 (+4.6 %) on cold-weather forecasts and the same AI-data-center power-guzzling narrative that’s been recycled for 18 months.
  • Energy ($XLE) → Up another 1.3 % Friday… and exactly flat over the past two years. Dead-money zombie sector that only looks alive on a 5-day chart.
  • Semiconductors ($SMH) → +1.82 % while the Nasdaq was flat. The AI complex refuses to die even when it’s supposed to be rotating out.
  • Speculative AI & Crypto → Trash coins and micro-cap AI names up 2–8 % in a straight line with Bitcoin’s snap-back to $92 k. Same hot money, same leverage, same crash-test canary in the liquidity coal mine.

CNBC Pro Claims If Gold Miners Can Rally to New Highs so Can Healthcare 

That's CNBC showing their hand, nothing more.  

Whac-a-Mole Markets Can Pop, But the Bubble's Going to Burst

Last week's action was a masterclass in misdirection: The post-Thanksgiving half-session should've been a tech/AI victory lap... Instead, the "everything rally" narrative—where AI, growth, and risk-on bleed into every corner. Instead, another roll of quarters were punked into the whac-a-mole machine.   
 
Call it the return of the whac-a-mole markets—those predictably unpredictable beasts where you whack down one over-hyped mole (AI's valuation reset? Done), only for another to pop up on fumes (energy's CapEx thirst, miners' squeeze mania). 
Gold losses it's luster? Drive Silver! Oil won't cooperate, drive natural gas!  

Healthcare the Obamacare throwback trade that was reanimated by covid vaccine funding, and free medicaid for illegals. This has less to do with technical setups, and more to do with the Gold miner trade they drive this time every year... It's just the latest pump theater. 
 
Silver bugs? They're in full tinfoil frenzy, convinced Friday's CME Globex shutdown (10+ hours, freezing futures across metals, FX, energy) was a blatant manipulation play to kneecap the white metal's breakout. Official line: "Cooling failure". 

Market Leaders? Mostly Hard Assets & the same old CapEx Build-Out Hype but this time CNBC's Silver nod now comes with CNBC Pro Black Friday discount. 

 
What they're actually trying to sell here is the idea that Solar, and EV are the future, when in reality these sectors remains in a deep bear market.  
  
As I always say: The Charts Never Lie 
 
 $TAN Solar +2% on Friday - remains in a 5 year bear market -50% 
 

 $EVMT (Electronic Vehicle Metals Commodity Strategy) - yes I even cover Electric Vehicles, because Tesla produces those, plus you just never know which rotten sector the CNBC crew is going to pump next, and I don't want to miss out!  

But here's the folly kicker: All this CapEx "build-out" hype—AI hyperscalers fronting $500B+ for grids, servers, and power by 2030—should be lighting up materials like a Christmas tree. Copper for cables? Aluminum for racks? Chemicals for chips? Nah. The sector's been a yawn, underscoring the disconnect: Silver's squeeze and energy pops are narrow trades, not broad conviction. Broader materials? Still grinding sideways, up just 12%

$IYM Materials Continue to Struggle Along With Most Sectors  
 

 
Conclusion: This rally is pure speculation in a fun-house filled with smoke & mirrors
Liquidity was the thread holding it all together, until crypto cracked? Ruinous.  
 
Bull Case: Stocks continue higher in 2026 even after the extraordinary - once in a lifetime - too far, too fast, for too long - 50% off the April lows, without so much as a pause, rally we saw in 2025.  
 
The Bear Case: A 30%-66% Fibonacci retracement, on the April - October rally. 
 
I think y'all know which outcome I'm betting on. Corrections are normal and healthy, so I'll wait for the next setup. 
 
Monday's setup: First trading day of December means mutual fund inflows. Adults return to trade real money the week after, volume triples norms—should be a green light provided by the next FOMC meeting, so brace yourselves for another bumper hit, before the final pinball drops.

Take Care, AA 

P.S. The Mag7-8-9 Line up was updated over the weekend [link

P.P.S Learn how to trade your 401k like a pro - with out getting flagged for excessive trading - in an upcoming blog segment.