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Monday, June 22, 2026

Breadth of Fresh Air? Not So Fast

You would think that, "Oil Lower, Stocks Higher" (last week's script) would thaw investor sentiment – yet the CNN sentiment index remains pinned in the red. Proving It’s not $4 gas bruising retail investor sentiment. Nor is it Trump's endless stream of Truth Social bombshells, and his "look at the stock market" gaslighting,  that's got everyone on edge. It's the rangebound market whipsawing in a tight range. Same lousy breadth. Now, add a hawkish Fed.

CNN Fear Freed Index linked

That lines up perfectly with long term sentiment indicator I highlighted 2 blogs ago [link] 
America's Lost Decade In Full View 

The only person who actually believes the stock market is soaring is Donald Trump, and that line is wearing thin, even with his base. The Dow touched 52k after about its 15th retest in 2 months, and came right back down. 👇 

You want to know who's stock market is really soaring? Pull up a NIKKEI, or S. Korea chart. 
What's lifting Tokyo? The same thing that juiced U.S. semis for a +7% Friday blast: a global AI FOMO frenzy. Al Jazeera called it three weeks ago and 3 week later the trend continues:  Japan’s stock market has hit an all-time high as a global buying frenzy driven by AI shows no signs of slowing down (aljazeera.com) 

Minus tech, U.S. stocks continue to trade in the same range they've been stuck in since April. Expect more sideways slop this week as the 4th of July approaches — prime time for market rigging, according to the yearly calendar.

NYSE: Still Trading a Range as investor sentiment sours, and the Fed is on hold (best case). 
$NYSE still struggling 


The Rotation Hustle, Confirmed By Morgan Stanley's Own Word Salad Chef

You want proof that this "market" is nothing but a managed spin cycle? Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley just went on Bloomberg (again last week) and handed it to you on a silver platter.

His words, not mine: "We went from Gold and Silver stocks (miners), to metals (rare earth?), Energy, and back into D-RAM (semiconductors). These are all commodities."

Mike Wilson, CIO of Morgan Stanley, just described the commodity rotation loop that's been fleecing retail traders all year — and called it a thesis. He even threw in some "earnings breadth" acrobatics for dessert. Perma-bull word salad, extra croutons.

I summed the video up in a tweet ––with the help of Grok AI - translating Mike's word salad to broken English/ spoken in the Chinese dialect: 

And then it happened: Friday (again) June OPEX. Semiconductors ripped +7%. Mike Wilson was seen eating crow for breakfast, and based on this Monday morning's tape he's going back for seconds.

Semiconductors don't care about whatever valuation you try to pin on it. 

Meanwhile, $IYF — the Financials ETF, which includes Morgan Stanley — can't break out above the 2026 highs. Failed breakout. Downside acceleration. So much for those earnings he keeps alluding to.

stockscharts image


Cherry-picking another "best performing sector": Russell 2000 Small Caps, up 2% on Friday. Sounds great until you zoom out — since early May, $IWM is up a lousy $10. That's your broadening economy.

Let's Cut Through the Bull: Big Tech, helped by a hyperscaler rebrand. That's the extent of your bull market. Anyone who tries to fight it gets their face ripped off. But let's not fool ourselves by calling rotations a broadening.

Two Sectors Worth Watching: Biotech & China:

Biotech because of upcoming FOMO IPO's 

China ($FXI / $YINN), because it's the most beaten-down segment on the board right now. It's so bad it's good. The $FXI chart is showing green highlights that look like a V-bottom attempting to form. Short-term view — chart it yourself.

 
ThinkOrSwin Charts Follow @3Xtraders

The Elephant in the Room Nobody on CNBC Will Touch

Here's something I honestly can't recall seeing before in 15 years of watching this market: stocks trading at or near all-time highs — and sentiment stubbornly, persistently bearish.

That's not normal. Historically, ATH prices and Fear & Greed readings below 40 don't coexist for long. Something gives. Either sentiment catches up to price — or price catches down to sentiment.

With a hawkish Fed keeping rate cuts off the table, summer volume drying up, and the 4th of July window historically ripe for distribution, the smarter bet is that fast money uses any remaining FOMO pop to take profits and head for the Hamptons. That's not a crash call. It's just reading the calendar.

Sector rotations will continue. The algos don't take summers off. But don't confuse musical chairs for a bull market.

P.S. On the Big Tech hyperscaler rebrand I mentioned earlier: Be sure to check out the  HYPERSCALERS HUSTLE: The definitive CRASH COURSE  & AI: The Marketing Genius Wall Street Swallowed Whole
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Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Best Trade of The Year, plus Iran Looking Like More of the SOS

SpaceX was up another +18% on Monday and continues to rally straight into the target I called Friday morning — ahead of the IPO. I picked that target based on a number of factors that have absolutely nothing to do with valuation and everything to do with investors and algos (alike) being drawn to key psychological targets (and highly disciplined, programmed momentum algos driving momentum... (topic for another day).     

$DJUSAS Aerospace Target Was Taken Out As well 

tweet screenshot


Yesterday's Big Headline was the announcement of an Iran "Deal" (over the weekend). But read the fine print and it’s the same recycled hope we’ve been pricing in since April. Yep, More of the Same Old Shit. 

What really sent market's rocketing higher on Monday? Some say it's, "window dressing", as we near the end of the second quarter, and that fits the cyclical pattern. Everything that rallied in the 2nd quarter rallied back to retest the recent highs in yesterday's session - AI (+3%), Small Caps, and Mag7 stocks (now flying under a new banner "hyperscalers) $NDX (+3%)  Read: HYPERSCALERS HUSTLE: The definitive CRASH COURSE 

Semiconductors were up +5.67% (led by Asia as usual) - including new highs in $AMD. Top performers on the $SPX: Western Digital, Micron, Seagate, $ON Semiconductor → all the usual suspects. $NDX Nasdaq 100 leaders included $ARM, $LAM, Microchip Technology ($MCHP) and finally Cramer/ Jensen Huang fav. Marvell, of course.  

Of course I saw this snapback rally in semis coming from several thousand miles away - last week. 

Upside Gap Fill Target Alerted to 11 hrs. Ago 

  Speaking of South Korea: 

Best Trade of The Year 3X South Korea Bull $KORU +600% (6X) 

Up 4000% over the past 14 months. Reminder: I wrote the book on "Max Gains" (compound gains) in leveraged ETF's, over decade ago [link] and today you see them running my playbook. If you think you know where the next momentum trade can be found, let me know. 



Back to Highly Bifurcated US Markets     

Bullish Names Flying Under Most Investor's Radar (covered on May 19th), $CAT, CMI, $TT (Train), Corning (+5%) all higher - all datacenter plays. 

NOT, the relief rally I expected.   

What didn't rally on the news that the war is over? - US Treasuries (barely up). Crickets from the msm on that front. I've sidelined the entire 401k, because when all I see the msm reporting is bs, I get nervous wondering what the real story is.   

US Treasuries — the market that actually prices real risk — said we aren't buying this story. 

Of course oil sold off to 3 month lows, but whether that can continue, remains to be seen.  

I'm looking at yesterday as just more of the SOS being mostly driven in Asia (no wonder China a is cracking down on off shore trading), and just another excuse to squeeze some more juice out of AI trade. 

Take Care,

AA 

P.S. Still believe AI is the next Industrial Revolution? Read: AI: The Marketing Genius Wall Street Swallowed Whole

    


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