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Tuesday, July 7, 2026

The Bullish MAGS Setup That Could Run All Week - Technical Tuesday Edition

 Another Monday rally (retail mutual fund buying) bites the dust, as the smart money takes profits. I even warned folks to buy protection - at a discount - the $VIX 15.50 level. Low volatility in the summer is normal, but this just seemed a little too good to pass up. 

We've seen this recurring setup many times - over the past several weeks - BUT I think it could be different this time. Because big money is piling back into big tech again, just as I have been predicting for weeks. How do I know this? They just handed us the script.  

From Mike Wilson to Samsung Shock - Bloomberg Shrugs 


US investors are waking up to find $NDX futures -1$, and Bloomberg wasted no time trying to pin the overnight weakness on Samsung (earnings disappointment). Calling BS on that. 

A day earlier ahead of Monday's opening bell; Mike Wilson and a parade of other guests (all parroting the same message) spent the entire day telling viewers that semiconductors were due for a correction. Twelve hours later, Samsung posts a blow-out quarter… and the stock gets hammered. You can’t make this stuff up. 

It took 15-20 minutes to cut through the noise - follow the thread and you'll find Samsung continues to bound off the same level for the past month - we call that building a base,  "consolidation"  not a 30% correction" (Mike Wilson's exact words). 

The Samsung Chart Cuts Straight Through The Word Salad 


Now for the main course! According to the experts, money is expected to "rotate" back into big tech (what they now call hyperscalers), and this sets up for the return of the "broadening trade", which apparently ended when oil spiked. This was news to me; because according to CNBC the broadening trade is still working. This is what happens when you can't keep your story's strait. ProTip: Have some integrity - stop lying. 

The trade they shook you out of last week (in hindsight) - not semis the other one

$MAGS - expect the same pullback I saw coming at yesterday's close, and then chase the smart money (so called) straight into earnings season, which just so happens to kick off next week. 


If you need me to chart the pullback target for you - drop $100 in my personal PayPal and PM me. And if I'm wrong; I'll even return your money.    

P.S. If you’re short on cash, just get a second job and let AI do all the work. It’s the ultimate side hustle everybody’s doing right now. 

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Monday, July 6, 2026

Why It Looks Different This Time: Lack of Leadership, Weak Consumer

Nobody likes an, "I told you so", but didn't I warn you that the $VIX was screaming "risk off"?  Thursday's blog reads like a crystal ball: "$VIX still lurking in the danger zone with the strong possibility of a rebalance, ahead of Q2 earnings — stay nimble" [link]  Glad my gains from earlier in the week were on a hair trigger.  

Quick Recap: Rug Pulled on AI Stocks As In Another Game of Whac-a-mole (the game that never gets old).   


The Chart Pattern That Led To Thursday Bloodbath in Big Tech Stocks 


The attempted breakout above the upper trend line (seen in purple) was immediately followed by a nasty  (bearish) reversal (an obvious bear raid): 


This I can tell you: If this was Joe Biden's market, they would have rallied into the holiday - their usual MO during the previous administration - more on why it's different this time in a moment.  

The Icing On The Cake:  Immediately after the closing bell CNBC Joe Kernen's one on one interview with Donald Trump. 

The balancing Act Going On Beneath The Surface 

The Weak Consumer  

$BPDISC (S&P Consumer Discretionary) dipped as oil prices spiked going into April, and private credit markets hit a rough patch, but now that crude oil prices have come down consumer spending continues to flatline, like the S&P 500, on a good day. 

 



 Thursday (July 3rd) CNBC allows Trump a full half hour to claim ignorance on his $1.4bn gain in stocks, and crypto investments, while at the same time claiming what a good businessman he is, and further trying to justify his massive win by claiming "everybody is making tons of money in the stock market",  pointing to gains in Dow Stocks. The stuff nobody trades.  

News Flash: 

Tech stocks just had one of their worst weeks in a year. Here's how AI momentum went off the rails. morningstar.com 



The Lack of Leadership is Glaring 

 $SPX with a $NYFANG overlay (big tech - mostly mag7 names) - More Proof That Only Big Tech Can Drag The Broader Market Higher. 

AI led into the end of the quarter. No other sector is seen making new all-time highs. That's not a bull market. It's a carefully balanced - on the head of a pin - market. 


This Monday morning we're dealing with the same market mechanics as last week.

$VIX Volatility continues to run high. 

$SPX sideways slop continues - still struggling below the 7500 level. 

Earnings season is shaping up to be another excuse to take profits — Protip: sell the news.

The "broadening out" story needs actual breadth to show up in the tape, not more TV interviews.

Take Care, 
AA 

P.S. Peak Optics at a major market top - Trump Rings The Opening Bell From The Oval Office (cnbc) 




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