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Thursday, October 8, 2026

The Trade Everyone Should Be Watching But Nobody Is

Reminder: If you're following me on stockscharts.com public charts list [linked] - and you have a stockcharts.com account - don't forget to vote daily. 3Xtraders Public Charts Area - Anthony Allyn (11 years) Previous "Hall of Fame" ChartList Author

Currently we're ranked 35th (out of 100) - with 13 followers (not bad) - yet  the charts only have 1 vote? Regardless... I'm adding another chart to the mix, and moving it to the top of the page:  

The Trade Everyone Should Be Watching But Nobody Is - Treasuries 

I get it; nobody trades bonds/treasuries, but this is the current $VIX (fear gauge), and multiple sectors are experiencing a rout in interest rate sensitive areas of the market.  

 $TLT (20 year Treasury ETF)  - This is a supplemental to the Leveraged 3X 20 Year Chart. They should move in lockstep, but this is the better chart (unscrewed by the constant NAV adjustments that leveraged ETFs undergo.) I found a possible gap target on the chart, so add there. Personally I don't think that gap is going to fill - some never do...      


     

The, "all clear" I sounded on Tuesday [linked] still stands - regardless of yesterday's retest of the 20 yr Treasury yield. Retests and overshoots are to be expected. If tracking down precise technical targets were the key to winning, we'd all be multi-millionaires. Even the algos have been programmed to break your bearish chart patterns and force you to the buy side. If you can't stand the heat - then stay out of the kitchen. Yesterday's move was an absolute nothingburger. That should go without saying. 

I called out the trade in real time, and it only got 30 views. 🤷 

 

What Really Scares Me? That's a Great Question: 

The Sudden Reversal Nobody Saw Coming 

$SPY - I hate this chart, but it is what it is. A throw-over beyond the top of the range, followed by a bearish reversal. 



Futures (red) seem to confirm the trade. 

Crude Oil higher - no surprise - the spring has been winding for several weeks. Actually took way longer than I thought... but they needed to continue to hammer oil lower, in order to help drive mega-caps - all according to plan. "What plan", you ask? 

To sum up: We're still waiting for the smoke to clear in 2 areas of the market: 1. The bond rout. 2. Oil.  

Once that happens it's going to trigger the algo to buy those sectors. Do your own due diligence. 

Where's the money going to come from in order to fuel the rotation...? I think you already know... 

The pump is already being primed: Samsung blowout earnings being sold.  

AI Overview (Gemini) 


 Of course we're going to continue to see the same balancing act we'd been watching since Covid. 

Apple Sells off Google rallies. Broadcom sells off on CapEx concerns, NetFlix lifts the QQQ's, etc. etc. etc.: 

Breaking: Jobless Claims just came in weaker than expected - that points to now rate hikes in Oct. - which is exactly what the street was expecting. 

Crude Oil is up nearly 5% - is the thing to watch. 



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Tuesday, October 6, 2026

Sounding the "All Clear" - The Real Safety Trade

The Talking Heads Are All Reading From The Same Script Again - no coincidence 

Fast Money (CNBC) after yesterday's closing bell, and Bloomberg Surveillance (this morning) reading from the exact same script re: the flight to safety in big tech". 

Link to actual video segment
1. After they're finished pumping the terrific setup on Financials (earnings next week) (13:05) Fast Money Host  Melisa Lee Asks Guest (from Citi) "Is this playbook into the end of the year (yes she actually gave an EOY window-dressing timeline) going to be to just hideout in technology... I say hideout, in quotes, because it's not necessarily a hideout place for a lot of people, but ...unintelligible, think it is..". 

2. This morning's Bloomberg opening segment: "should investors be hiding out in tech stocks?" 

Translation: - the broadening out pivot is knocking at the door. Snooze you lose. But tech is still great! 

I suspect most tech junkies don't even know they're hiding out, but with all the negative news about the bond market collapse, $6 diesel, not to mention AI causing 1b deaths - within the next 10 years (even AI will tell you that's science fiction), then you know why some investors are hiding in the most well capitalized companies, just as they did during covid.      

Call it what you want (hiding place) it's the same rotation that's been working since covid - and the same comparison I've been highlighting for months. 

"A magic act so clever that most retail investors don't even notice.... but I cut though that mirage on Sept.10th [link]:" 


As I always say: There are no coincidences on Wall Street, but yesterday was glaring. 

Brazil suddenly trading at new all time highs. CNBC traders could not contain their laughter. I don't blame them. The newly created $BRZL 3X Brazil Bull ETF was up 40% before lunch. #ChaChing Chart has already been added to the public charts list [linked]  


Not just Brazil

Several sectors are already breaking out, even home builders (rate sensitive) seem to be building a base. 

Giving the all clear in bond markets - at least for the next few weeks - ahead of the next FOMC meeting. 


Yesterday, I was pointing to a $VIX gapping higher on a Monday morning surprise, and this morning, I'm sounding the "all clear". In hindsight yesterday's pop on the $VIX was only an excuse to fill the gap that was left behind on Oct. 17th, and to shake out a few more weak hands.    


I'm actually 75/25 invested in bonds, because I'm expecting some air to come out of the safety trade, here (in the States) and abroad. That sets the stage for a rotation back into the real safety trade, US Treasuries. 


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