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Thursday, April 2, 2026

Welp — So Much for Tuesday's 1,125-Point Dow Rally

The only reason I’m pointing at Tuesday’s "Trump Taco Trade" (TTT)—that 1,125-point rip on the Dow—is because of how it vanished from the narrative by Thursday morning. It was newsworthy: Bloomberg called it the biggest rally since May (fact). Yahoo News covered it. But the major networks? Ghost town. CNBC even told investors to "fade it."

I called it a probable bear rally before it even began [link]. It smelled like a dead cat then, and it's starting to stink now. 

Last Night's Presidential Address Lands With A Thud

Trump loves to brag about the market, which falls right into my wheelhouse. I watched the address live so you didn't have to. The "Eternal Gaslight" engine was in high gear:

  • "We won the war" – I shouldn't laugh, but if we already "won," let's bring the troops home to a hero's parade.

  • The Moving Goalposts – Four weeks turned into five, and now he’s saying "2 to 3 weeks." Don't hold your breath.

  • "I thought Oil prices were going to go up higher" – An exact quote.


The "Higher Oil" Price Conspiracy  - Hear Me Out: 

Maybe he actually wants oil prices higher? His donors are making a fortune ("We're making a lot of money"). UK oil companies are fueling the current sector rotation, and then there’s the Eilat–Ashkelon Pipeline (EAPC).

It’s a major Israeli conduit from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean—a shortcut for oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. You think that's far-fetched? Pull up a $TA125 Tel Aviv Stock chart; you'll find a rally there actually worthy of bragging rights. #MIGA

The ultimate conspiracy angle: Close the straits, jack up fuel costs, reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Higher costs = fewer flights, less driving, lower carbon. Is the "plan" just a green energy play wrapped in a flag?   

My Morning After Review of Trump's Presidential Address 

The Reality Check 

Most traders watch the $SPX, not the Dow, because big tech drives the bus. With the Nasdaq hitting 7-month lows, that's the reality for most 401k funds. If you’ve been "buying the dip" on hope, you’re down—way down. Trump’s an 80-year-old billionaire; he isn't losing sleep over your cost basis.

Are Markets Near a Tradeable Bottom? Short answer: No.

  • The trend has been down for months.

  • Every rally is just speculators piling into risky assets, not "real money" being put to work.

  • $VIX in the 25s? Oof. This morning is looking bloody.

We likely need to retest the lows and see true sector capitulation before anything sustainable happens. As for the 401k, stick to your long-term plan. And as always, consult a professional before putting your capital at risk.


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Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Trump TACO Technical Tuesday Trade = 5XT (Quintuple T) Kicks Off With a Bang

Yesterday Trump claims he's going to obliterate Iranian infrastructure, if the strait of Hormuz isn't opened immediately, and by Monday evening futures, "Trump Tells Aides He's Willing to End War Without Reopening the Strait Of Hormuz" (WSJ). 

Script Flip Just in Time for Taco Tuesday: 😅   

  • Bloomberg immediately pivots to “brutal 1st quarter...market looking to trim the losses".
  • Even Chairman Powell refused to parrot the panic narrative in his Harvard remarks yesterday. He explicitly said the Fed is in a good place to “wait and see...”

Meanwhile CNBC’s Fast Money (yesterday's panel) kept pounding the table with “we don’t love Facebook trading at 2024 levels.” Translation: they’re quietly accumulating while still sounding cautious. Jim Cramer cut through the noise, pointing out that the steep drop in Meta Platforms ($META) after the recent legal rulings is driven by fear, not fundamentals. He called the sell-off “strange” and noted these cases are often overturned on appeal.

Sound familiar? It should 

Sometimes stocks sell off for legitimate reasons, and other times stocks sell off on a scripted false narrative, until the anti-Trump rhetoric echo chamber is dialed to 11: 
  • Private Credit Fears aka Cockroaches - 2 year old story
  • ai bubble, capex spending, ai software everything takeover 3X NO
  • The economy broadening out theme falls apart - investors panic 
  • Quarterly rebalance - selling accelerated by redemptions, and now a anti-war fear porn narrative - YES! At this point is seems irrational to be selling much of anything      

Doubling Down on Recent Bullish Calls 

  • NOT $ARKK  - continue to steer clear of that one!   
  • The Only Stocks That Still Matter Mag7/ $META, $TSLA included
  • Cloud - still not making new lows - still liking these names 
  • Whatever's extremely oversold: - think financials, airlines 
  • Even bear markets rally - and these can be super-powerful! 
Yesterday's Washout on Tesla Tweeted - still holding? lol 😰 Tesla is barely down 6% in March, but if selling accelerates here, I think you're going to want to cut your losses, and watch from the sidelines - for a gap to fill around the $320 level.  
Grok/ai's final take: Quarter-end flows exaggerated the move. Pension funds and rebalancers mechanically sold into the fear. Now the air is clearing, TACO headlines are providing the excuse, Powell is staying measured, and real selling pressure is easing.This blog practically wrote itself because the market is confirming the read in real time.


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