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Monday, November 9, 2026

Market Remains In A Holding Pattern - With NVIDIA Sitting On The Launch Pad



I'm sure you've all heard the talking heads parroting the same story, since it broke last night - right around the time US futures opened - no surprise (timing-wise) looking at this from my usual, highly cynical/conspiratorial view. 

The first detailed report Oct. 29th, published by the New York Times-  was an exclusive report revealing that U.S. intelligence agencies viewed the Nvidia CEO as the target of a Chinese espionage plot. 

I was kind of blown away that the story was mostly ignored by the msm, yet it immediately lit up my radar.  



Fast forward to 11/8/2026 - Last Night (nearly 2 weeks later): 
  • Jensen Huang's formal apology - email. I'll spare you the details. 
  • Nvidia's board of directors launches an independent investigation. 
  • A federal investigation is also being launched (allegedly) into NVIDIA. 


The whole thing looks like another classic media narrative distraction, while smart money (Including our HFIT [high frequency insider trading] Congress) loads up on NVIDIA shares - at a huge discount (26% off the all-time highs - as of Friday's close). 

The $VIX being carefully balanced back above the 20 level, to keep sellers sidelined. 

Fits the calendar/ cycle - wait for everyone to get short, and then drive markets on light holiday volume - short covering. You know the drill. 

The other stock they love to hate? 

Tesla ($TSLA): The narrative-driven (Dems vowing to go after Elon..) selloff in Tesla creates another classic sentiment disconnect where short-term political noise masks underlying manufacturing execution - not to mention its valuation once you factor in SpaceX (merger talk). 

The chart tells the story of how Wall Street absolutely planned to trap Tesla bulls, once the election results were revealed. 


I'm not trading Tesla, don't plan to trade it. If you like it, watch for a shakeout, below 335, followed by a bullish reversal. If I'm wrong, and it takes out the previous low - around $300 - that level becomes your pivot. 

I remain bullish, ahead of the holidays, and not just big tech (the only sector that matters), and we're planning to add another maximum 401k contribution in 2 weeks. I'm sure by the time, once the Thanksgiving turkey is pardoned, Congress will be holding hands, and singing kumbaya. 


P.S. Fun fact: Department of Justice (DOJ) & Commerce Department: U.S. authorities have been investigating Singapore-based Megaspeed since 2024 over suspicions that the firm illegally funneled advanced Nvidia AI chips to China. The Commerce Department has officially handed this investigation over to the Justice Department. 

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Friday, November 6, 2026

The Tech AI Sell Off That Couldn't Even Fool Retail

Quick Rundown of yesterday's tape - in case you were absent on Thursday - lucky you!: 


  • Volatility immediately spiked at the open 
  • There were few hiding places to be found - even energy took another leg lower. 
  • By the end of the day - what used to be the hottest sector - SOX Semiconductor index had crashed like we haven't seen - I think - since the covid crash. 
  • Technology the most widely owned sector - by far - down (-8%).
  • Nothing was spared - the baby was thrown out with the bathwater.  
 Honestly, if I had to choose only one word to describe Thursday's action: BRUTAL 

Yet the $VIX still remains below 30, and that means I'm still on track to buy the dip as planned. I don't want to leave anybody hanging, after a day like that.  

The Lack of Volume is a Tell 

As bad as things looked at yesterday’s close, selling volume DOES NOT confirm Capitulation.

We  didn’t see record selling volume in the NASDAQ Composite, or even the $SOX. In fact we saw heavier selling volume back in July, during the summer. Of course, selling volume was heavy, but it was NOT earth-shattering. Let's pull up a simple semi chart: 



$SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) - $SOXX also works, and looks about the same. Check me out on that.... chart it for yourself.  1. Volume doesn't point to capitulation in the space. 2. There's a gap target in plain sight - if the powers that be want to break the chart, ahead of the holidays I'm sure they won't have any trouble... but as of today the chart isn't broken. 3. The bullish trend remains intact - represented by my lower blue line. 4. The chart pattern: resembles a downturned megaphone, or triangle if you prefer. 

My personal opinion is that this bear raid was rushed, because: 1. Thanksgiving is in less than 3 weeks, and 2. Hanukkah comes early this year, and even the dumb bear raiders know not to sell a dull tape.

Final point: The selling on the $KOSPI is also less than convincing. Sure, they were able to break the $KORU - the 3X Bull ETF, and there was record selling volume as it crashed 37.39% - yet the KOSPI itself was only down 5%? 😏  That points to just another narrowly focused, 1 day bear raid - not pure panic. 

 Seeing the $KORU up 11% this morning. No sign of follow-though, after yesterday's selling. 

 


 

 P.S. Shout out to S. Korean traders just as trading on the $KOSPI was halted: 





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