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Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Tech Stocks Breaking out to fresh ALL TIME HIGHS?

Short answer is a resounding YES! But you need to know where to look: 

$PSE (NYSE Arca Tech 100 Index) – tracked since 1982, when it was initiated by the Pacific Exchange. It is one of the oldest technology indexes calculated. (wiki) 

Of course if you compare the out-performance of the $PSE, to the Nasdaq you're going to be disappointed. That being said, the broader market picture is murkier. Can the Broader Market breakout to new all time highs? The jury is still out on that.

Personally I think we need more people to get short, ahead of the memorial dayThat would create enough inertia to drive this bifurcated market to new highs (on holiday short covering). No one was foolish enough to be selling stocks when the April 2026 TACO trade kicked in, and that explains the lack of buying volume we’ve seen over the past several weeks. 

  My Full Assessment Based On Yesterday's Rather Dull Session 

Nobody was short going into the reversal and momentum seems to be drying up. I’m certain the bulls want to get paid on their bullish (in-the-money) calls on Friday, but they may have already overplayed their hand.

Europe's Midday Reversal Dragging on US markets: Not on Iran news, but a global unwind in luxury goods that started years ago (long before Trump won a second term), and on top of that – central bank uncertainty.  ECB’s Lagarde Says Uncertainty Is Back (gloomberg)

 WSJ Reports [link]

 "Shares in European luxury companies fell after some of the industry's big players said that war in the Middle East weighed on sales..." 

Compare that Statement to the dreadful Louis Vuitton Chart - trading well below 2021 levels. BIG bearish H&S pattern.   

$LVMUY Louis Vuitton

And no, this isn’t some fresh “L-shaped recovery” that suddenly got derailed by Iran. The luxury sector — and Europe with it — has been quietly swirling the bowl for years, grinding lower in a multi-year topping pattern long before any Hormuz headlines. The latest crash is just the latest convenient excuse, exactly like the 2022 “common cold” panic that was used to manufacture free money. Now the Chickens Have Come Home To Roost. They pumped these names to new highs only to unload them on retail; the real story is the same old unwind, not a surprise geopolitical black swan.

Crude oil is still trading at close to $90 (Chart below). Key energy stocks just broke their respective 50-day moving averages, but they could bounce back hard if crude starts running again. Classic rotation play — the same money that’s been chasing FOMO rallies in Europe is perfectly poised to rotate back into energy the moment oil finds its footing. 

$WTI Crude Oil trading in a range. I'm still predicting $30 oil, but I'm a swing trader. 


Unless you're super-nimble you're better off not trading crude oil as the recent 10-16% moves suggest.  

Final Trade copper retesting the $6 level. Pivotal moment. 



Opening bell snuck up on me - just rang -gotta run. 


Tuesday, April 14, 2026

The Rumor Mill That's Actually Moving Stocks – The Stealth Bull Market Nobody Is Talking About

I think it should be illegal to report rumors just to pump sectors. I also don't see that changing anytime soon.

I think it should be illegal to report fake news — but then what would we all watch for entertainment? 🀣

Yesterday — Dell: A false rumor kicked off at "Semi Accurate (that's the name of the mf website [link]!)" — courtesy of a writer whose own X profile brags about being a "Roving engine of Chaos and snide remarks." Didn't stop CNBC or Bloomberg from running with it. The "rumor" disclosure? That came after Dell had already traded to new all-time highs. Classic.





Today — United Airlines: CEO Scott Kirby reportedly pitched a merger with American Airlines in a meeting with President Trump. Of course it's not happening — for about a dozen obvious reasons — but it was enough to spike the stock 9% in premarket. 🀣




Two Stealth Bull Market Rallies Being Mostly Ignored

1. Transports — Traded to new all-time highs yesterday, up another +2.5%, juiced in part by that United/American merger whisper. Seeing a pattern here?

2. $SOX
Semiconductors — Chips continue breaking out to new all-time highs, up another 1% in pre-market last I checked.

Chart says: Possible whipsaw back to the top of a broadening triangle — guessing wave (D)? I'm standing down... 



S&P — Rallied to new highs after reclaiming the exact support level I flagged Friday night [link → blog → tweet]. Snapped back, and the rest was history.

Bank earnings? Another distraction — just like the endless Iran/oil theater (crude lower again). Smoke and mirrors from the lamestream media.

P.S. $TPOR (3X Transportation Bull ETF) isn't tracking $TRAN. Only up 1.5% yesterday. Check the components.

P.P.S. The elephant in the room is monthly OPEX. If you're smart, you're already hedged.

The rumor mill is working overtime. Bullish desperation hiding in plain sight — and somehow, it's working. Everything else is just noise to keep you chasing headlines instead of the tape that actually pays.