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Saturday, March 21, 2026

The Selective Sell-Off Nobody's Talking About (The Chart They Don't Want You to See)

Surveying the damage after Friday's washout—only slightly lower lows on several indices and mutual funds. I tweeted out a bunch of broken sector charts just to pass the time. lol Are markets broken? Have you checked your 401k lately? I sure as hell have—watching ours like a hawk and trading it like an HFT hedge fund manager.

Sentiment & Technicals:   

Seeing a lot of fear porn chatter, but still the $VIX doesn't scream "PANIC". Weird. The $SPY got slammed right at the 200-day out of the gate, along with $NVDA—so the stage was set early. Small caps got crushed, gold miners too, and other junk nobody cares about (looking at you, Super Micro Computer -26%).   

CNBC made a big deal about small caps hitting "corrective territory"—fancy term for a 10% pullback nobody cares about. The $SML (S&P 600) is back below 2021 levels if you're hunting for a real sob story.

Look, if you're really bearish, sell your favorite Warren Buffett pick: $AAPL Apple 😅

Daily volume on the $SPX was huge—higher than we saw even during the April 2025 crash. But if the $VIX can't break out, this looks more like end-of-quarter rebalancing on a massive triple-witch OPEX than anything fundamental. Iran? Sure. High oil prices don't stop money from getting put to work in the spring. Time to put money to work.

NVIDIA + Apple = ~13% of the S&P (and the Mag7 close to 40%). What do you think comes next? Spoiler: 

$AAPL Apple landed precisely on the 200 day SMA 

The eagle has landed 

$NYA (NYSE Composite Index) The chart they don't want you to see.   

What about all those software names they were trying to steer you away from just a few weeks ago. Distracted by Iran much? Get on it! 

P. S. Bitcoin also no longer sells off with tech, and not because it behaves like digital gold. It trades opposite gold, more like speculative tech. Think Coinbase - treading water at the 50 day. Nobody notices, but yours truly. 


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Friday, March 20, 2026

Manifesting Market Moves: This Week's Coincidences Are Getting Suspicious

 Quick weekly wrap-up of uncanny events (so far):

  • In yesterday's blog [linked] I accuse the Fed of shielding banks from the rout → 1 hour later, the capital-requirements easing story breaks. (Uncanny level: 10/10 timing.) 
  • Kharg Island prediction (tweeted 36+ hours ago) → 
  • Market echoes: Yesterday's "RISK ON" call on the Russell [linked] 

    Russell 2000     Closes Higher on some of the best volume we've seen in 2 months.


  • Top in Oil Called in Real time [linked] 

    This morning we see it bouncing off support 
I remain super-bearish on Oil, and the more I hear the talking heads drive the inflation narrative, the more I see through their political theater. 

$WTI (US Crude Oil) is already trading in the danger zone 
Heating Oil is up on speculation that the war will continue...  even as Israel has stated that it's going to be over faster than anyone thinks. In fact winter is nearly over and heating oil is still in the midst of doing a massive retest of the historic 2022 high! 
Heating Oil - retesting the recent highs


The Breaking News Story That's Not Getting Much Attention: 

Crude down as Netanyahu looks to reassure on war (themessenger.com)

"This war is ending a lot faster than people think," he said...


P.S. Accounting for inflation, oil isn't trading anywhere near historic highs, and $4 gasoline isn't hurting anybody's pocketbook. I plan on filling up this morning, and expecting to pay 7 bucks more than 3 weeks ago. Less than the cost of a cheeseburger.   
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