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Sunday, October 18, 2026

Current Market Conditions: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly

imdb.com

Had some major technical difficulties last week. Ended up pulling the public charts, and deleting a blog update – long story. To top it all off, I caught a cold. Hey, I would love to continue providing public charts, but with 135 tabs open, and the $VIX spiking above 20... I  have enough on my plate...

Time to Regroup:

The Good 

Public Charts Update - It was fun while it lasted: 

I made $100 on the bond rally. Watching the talking heads try to explain the violent reversal in yields - PRICELESS! 

🤣  

$TMV (3X 20 yr Treasury Yields Bull ETF) lost nearly 15% in a week! 


 

Energy - their favorite hiding place – closed at  new all time highs. 

Financials ended higher on the week. 🤯

Here's how they pulled that off:

They piled into $JPM, & $BRK (2 most heavily weighted financials companies in the S&P 500).  Same balancing act... different sector. 

The Bad


3 min. Trailer (imdb.com)

Let's call this "AI Sell-off", what it really is: The multi-sector Oct. rug pull just ahead of Q4 window dressing season. Yep, it's another bear trap; involving all the usual suspects - except this time the barchart boiler room crew is reading from the same script as CNBC.

 Technically, yes certain AI stocks sold off last week, but here's the short list of sectors which are on sale. 


  • Semis & Software same rotation (out) we saw in June/July - deja vu. 
  • Financials (selling off since August)   
  • Healthcare - tested the recent lows at Friday's close.
  • Aerospace/ Defense
  • Transports/Airlines    
  • Small Caps (the risk off sector) - even lower yields couldn't stop Friday's bear raid. 

Reminder: This was the same crew that took down the $KOSPI - earlier in the year [July 19th Chinese Reddit Traders Team Up To Help Create The Perfect Storm]



The Ugly 

Big Tech - mega caps (NVIDIA included) is being used to balance the entire S&P, so MAGS continues to preform like an anchor (dead weight ballast) - only down 2 days in a row, and only 3 days off the all time highs.  

The Wakeup Call Everyone Ignored 

 $VIX kissed 18.01 level Wed. Morning - I called the  breakout in real time – more than once. 

They obviously kept their powder dry, waiting until Monthly Options Expiration Friday to drive the $VIX into a breakout (above 22).Crickets from the MSM, on the suspicions timing... 

With the $VIX still trading near 20 (closed at 19.99 on Friday) we are pretty far from, "out of the woods", but I'm already encouraging folks to keep buying the dips. In fact if you can raisep your 401k contribution to 100% - this is the place to do it.

Most investors are sitting on the sideline - $8t sitting in money markets. That's a contrarian indicator.   



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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Energy, and Oil Drillers, Make New All Time Highs - Trump Shows His Hand

While the broader market continues to chop sideways - tech lagging - financials consolidating after rallying for 3-4 days - the energy trade is on fire - trading at new all time highs. Funny aside - Gemini tried to tell me Exxon $XOM isn't trading at new all time highs, until I pointed to the chart. Then it admitted it was wrong. 

AI hallucinates a lot

Market leader Exxon in fact did close at a new all time high, after touching a new intra-day high ($175). Several energy names did...  Home Work: chart 'em all. 

tradingview.com

$XLE - (fresh chart) The entire energy space trading in the top of the range (two ranges - or channels actually) - headed for higher highs. Target looks like 68. It could overshoot, climaxing with a blow off top, just as gold miners did. I suggest you don't short it, until you see the whites of their eyes. Wait for volume to confirm capitulation. Since it looks like financials have stalled on $BAC (fines), I'm uploading this chart to the public hub [linked].      


The smart money is obviously driving the above trade - billionaires. Fast Money as well. The Trump pump should easily drive the trade above the finish line: 

Trump Shows His Hand - Art of the Deal Alaska 


Art of the Deal, Greenland -  

This deal was agreed to weeks ago - but the leftist mainstream media doesn't like reporting the details on Trump wins. That's fine: Trump is telling you it's "HUGE", and the performance on the oil drillers speaks for itself - far outpacing the performance of crude oil itself. 

Trump’s Greenland Deal Boosts US Drilling Opportunities
Newsweek Sept. 23, 2026  


Good luck 
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