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Sunday, January 25, 2026

Trump Latest Tariff Tirade Canada + FOMC in the Spotlight

Trump's back at it again-threatening our top oil supplier, Canada, with crippling 100% tariffs unless they ditch the deal they made with China⸺week before last.
Beijing, People’s Republic of China
Prime Minister Carney forges new strategic partnership with the People’s Republic of China focused on energy, agri-food, and trade" [link]

First question: why this, why now? Not sure what Trump has up his sleeve this time, but my thoughts include:   
  • This is an attempt to pivot away from the 24/7 media coverage of the civil unrest at home (in Minnesota)? 

    Latest deadly shooting by federal agents pushes government closer to shutdown (fortune.com)

  • Attempting to help Elon, by cutting China out of the already failing EV market? 
  • Is Trump trying to put a halt on the, "Sell America"/ invest in Europe, trade? If so, this may only be the beginning, of things to come. Remember: Macron is literally in Beijing right now begging Xi to buy more overpriced Bordeaux and Airbus parts so France doesn’t implode first. [link] 

Dow Jones Futures: Trump Threatens 100% Canada Tariff, Government Shutdown Risks Spike; Earnings Wave Looms (Investors.com)



Possible Trades on The Latest Trump Bluster 

Crude Oil/ Energy 

We've already seen oil breakout several times, ahead of this news - probably on government insider trading (totally legal) -  but I think we could see a spike in Sunday futures, as the algos are triggered.  
 $USO (US Oil) DCS chart - shows a gap left behind on Friday, and several possible upside targets.  

US Oil Chart 


On Top of All This The Fed Renders Their Decision This Week 


The next FOMC announcement is in the spotlight, and barring a rate hike or talk of a rate hike (probability .02%) the market is going to take it as an all clear to window dress the end of the month. Remember this sets the tone for the entire year.  

Not To Mention Tech Earnings:   
  • Tuesday: Boeing, Kimberly $KMB, $NOC $UNH, Seagate $STX, $TXN (after the close)
  • Wed: $AEM, Corning $GLW, $GD, Lam Research $LRCX, $META, $MSFT, $TSLA     
  • Thursday: Altria $MO, $CAT, $MA, $SAP, $SHW, $AAPL, Sandisk $SNDK, $WDC
  • Friday: Chevron $CVX, Colgate $CL, Verizon $VZ, $XOM

NASDAQ Breaks out - on a 60 min chart view - and now the same geniuses who told you the rally was broadening out, and to "invest in China, and Europe" , are now looking for mag 7 leadership, just as I said... 

Short term bullish? Not sure—algos could chase the Nasdaq breakout, oil might gap higher on Sunday futures drama, and a dovish Fed hold (near-zero hike odds) might green-light window dressing into month-end. But long term? No way. We've seen too many headfakes lately, and now this Trump bluster that could fizzle into nothing—or escalate into real supply shocks.

Stay nimble, because I'm still expecting to rally above $SPS 7000, led by Mag7 (of course), but try not to be left holding the bag. 


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Friday, January 23, 2026

Winter Storm Fear Porn Drives Natural Gas Squeeze; Intel Earnings Land With A Thud

Never pass up a good opportunity to drive a short squeeze in natural gas during a crippling ice storm. Prepare to be locked down again: This time not by a lab created virus, but by yet another 100 year storm. Was winter storm "Fern" geoengineered? I don't have time to go down that rabbit hole right now, but it's food for thought, with all the government insider trading that's still going on. Beijing creates snow storms openly- big deal. US whistle-blowers get "conspiracy theorist" labels, and shadow-bans. Meanwhile, derivatives traders cash in on weather whiplash.  

Introduction to Weather Derivatives cmegroup.com [link] 

Figure that Fox Business  doubles as a weather fear-porn hybrid. Blatantly hyping  "power grid pressure", where there is none. Who's the tin foil wearing conspiracy clown now?! 

Winter Storm Fear Porn Drives Natural Gas 

Would You Would Prefer Some Boring Math? 
 
Enter Grok/AI stats: "Natgas futures up 75%+ in days (from ~$3 to highs near $5.66, settling ~$4.99–$5.00 after some profit-taking), biggest weekly gain since 2022. $UNG gapped to 2026 highs on monster volume."
I called the setup early on and have the tweets to prove it - review my X timeline @3xtraders  
Yesterday's Pullback Was Textbook:

@3xtraders eats trolls for breakfast: 


This one this morning calling my hype callout "fearporn"
Moving on to $INTC Intel: Earnings landed with a thud. Q4 revenue beat ($13.7B vs. $13.4B), but Q1 guidance bombed (revenue $11.7–$12.7B midpoint miss, EPS break-even vs. 5¢). Stock tanked 13% AH

 CNBC's Gene Munster called it: "$INTC at its most basic level, a meme stock." And that's exactly what it is—hyped on CHIPS Act and Stargate dreams, but lagging AI execution.
Don't worry, they must keep semis propped. I knew right where to look: $AMD rotation already kicking in pre-market. Prop markets much? 


Hold onto your wallets, because propping markets has become a national security issue, and AI bailouts are next. Taxpayer dollars to the rescue in the name of "winning the race." More in the upcoming blog series on "Semiconductors: The AI Elephant In The Room."

In the meantime, NYC's expected to remain paralyzed into Monday (up to 16 inches snow/ice mix, travel chaos, power outage risks per forecasts), and with Davos wrapping up today (half-day session, early flights), don't expect much selling pressure. Markets might feel like another 3-day weekend.
Take care out there—use the high-perf salt on your driveway... pro tip.No positions disclosed. Trade at your own risk.[End] 



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