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Tuesday, July 1, 2025

New All Time Market Highs $SPX. Short Squeeze Emerging Markets, and the $USD Trade

 New All Time Market Highs. These headlines are designed to spurt animal instincts, but I suppose, it's also supposed to scare the EW counters, because new highs rule out wave 2 in a bear market. 

 Look, new highs mean nothing to me, as I stated in a recent blog. 

 "The market has only traded back to the same Trump/ Biden era bubble levels, we saw 6 months ago, and the market remains in dire need of a real correction." 

 All you have to do is go back and look at where chasing the new all time highs in 2021 got you, or even the provide highs, which were no doubt orchestrated. 

 New York Stock Exchange - seen retesting the new all time highs again 


We've already seen several new all time highs, on several indices including the $QQQ, yet it seems like the talking heads weren't satisfied until we closed out the first half of the year, with a new high on the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ.   

 What's funny is after yesterday's close Bloomberg drew more attention to the historic sell-off in the $USD, and the rally in EM (Emerging Markets).... almost as if they are rooting against the $USA, and I have no doubt that they would like for nothing more than for the USA to go bankrupt under Trump. 

I feel like these are some of the dumbest people on the planet, encouraging investors to abandon the US, for foreign markets, and I'm prepared to bet against their false narrative. 

 Short squeeze $USD - The $USD short is a crowded trade. The bear's stop hunt on the $USD is the 100 level. I don't believe we'll see that stop hunt triggered, for at least a couple more months, but in the meantime I think we could see a breakout above the 97 level.  

 


 I have no idea what the catalyst for a breakout above the 100 level is going to be, but it's probably going to look like another SHTF moment. Could be a trade war with Japan, since the last carry trade unwind drove the $VIX to the 60 level. 

Take Care and have a great 4th of July holiday, 

AA   


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Friday, June 27, 2025

Sentiment Indicators + Nike $NKE Update, + Banks

This morning I was watching Bloomberg Surveillance, because it comes on after Bloomberg Europe, and as bad as that program is, it's still 10x better than CNBC Europe.  

If you have never had the displeasure of watching CNBC Europe it looks like they spent about $99 on their set, and they can apparently only afford to pay 1 reporter to cover the globe lol  

Track and yield: Nike earnings boost European sportswear stocks CNBC.com

Nike says tariffs could add around $1 billion to its costs this trading year as it looks to reduce its reliance on Chinese production in a bid to offset the impact of President Trump’s trade policy.

 Nike - is up 10% in pre-market as the dash fo' trash continues. 

I got Nike right by the way. It was an easy call. 

 
Watch for a test of the 200 day moving average, right around where it's set to open.  

Sentiment 

I've been wanting to touch on the topic of sentiment for a while now, since we no longer see bullish capitulation in markets. More on that in a minute.     

So, I'm watching the town idiots on Bloomberg (New York), and I see them giggling about something, and so I decided to turn the sound up... and as it turns out what they seem to find so funny is that sentiment has turned from bearish to bullish in only a few weeks/months.  

This in itself would NOT be at all unusual, even in a bear market, and it seems like only yesterday that we were trading face melting rallies in 2008, some of which lasted for 3 months, and that seems to be about where we are in this cycle. 

But why would they find it so funny that sentiment had shifted? I'll tell you why. 

1. It's because these Bloomberg hosts, and the globalists who are working behind the scenes, absolutely hate Trump, and his supporters. They must think MAGA investors are all bullish now, when they know as well as I do, that the final leg of this rally is a bull trap, and the fact that markets are testing new highs during the summer is a big red flag. 

"Volume precedes price..."; as they say  

I don't know how many fleeting summer rallies we need to see go down in flames, before retail learns to stop chasing low volume rallies, but apparently that trend needs to continue....  

2. The Bloomberg Surveillance narrative that sentiment went from one extreme to another is also hogwash.      

 Sentiment indicators never reached extreme levels, back in April. In fact the market didn't even need to form a base... In fact, only 1 week after Liberation Day, markets were off to the races again in a historic short squeeze. 

That doesn't point to bullish capitulation. It points to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). It also points to market manipulation - a topic for another day.

The market has only traded back to the same Trump/ Biden era bubble levels, we saw 6 months ago, and the market remains in dire need of a real correction.   

Sentiment indicators agree 

 I know the bots like to point to CNN's new sentiment indicator a lot, but I'll trust my own indicators any day of the week, and I can tell you that the bearishness we saw in April was shallow, and brief, and you didn't see the type of Put buying you would expect to see... 

 In fact we saw far more bearishness when the regional banks began to collapse in 2022. That event caused real fear in markets, yet the radical left wing lame stream media was quick to bury the issue. 

 Today we see CNBC Fast Money pushing the toxic banking sector.  

That's their job, to sell you on the idea that everything is fine.  


  

 Take Care, AA 

 


  



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Thursday, June 26, 2025

Best Trade of The Quarter Better Than Gold or Silver

Back on April 14th when it seemed like everyone, and his brother, was chasing Gold, I called out Platinum trading around the 945 level. 

 

In 2025, platinum has outrun gold and silver with a near 49 percent rally to hit a decade high 

 
What is platinum? goldsecure.com.au  

So far this year, gold has surged close to 29 percent on safe haven buying amid rising geopolitical risks and tariff-related uncertainty, but platinum has posted a 49 percent rise, and is set to pip all precious metals for the month as well as for the quarter.

moneycontrol.com

Since that time Platinum is up over 40 percent

Why is Platinum so special? It's not, and It just goes to show, we're in a liquidity bubble, where excess money continues to find it's way into every market. 

I suspect the sheiks in Dubai are driving everything from Crypto, to platinum, but it could be any whale, or *school of whales, with the help of a little trading software. 

Of course, now you see every Tom, Dick, and Harry, along with a millions bots pointing to the platinum trade

 

 

and that seems like a good place to make an exit.   

 

 Take Care, 

AA  

*A group of whales is commonly called a pod, a school, or a gam. Other terms include herd, mob, and flotilla. - Source AI Duck assist/ whale-world.com Wikipedia      

  

 

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Wednesday, June 25, 2025

The Market No Longer Cares About Facts Iran China EU Germany AI Crypto Markets $VIX chart

 Wow, where to start?! Just when you thought we were headed into the summer doldrums, we get more explosive market action, and I've had the good fortune  of being on the right side of nearly all of it. 

I offered a chart of the small-caps earlier in the week (in the previous blog linked), and all they've done is out-perform, but like I said at the time I have much better trades up my sleeve, and I was "willing to share... for the right price". That offer is off the table.    

 It seems like all I do is blog on one great trading opportunity after the next, and this during the summer - when trading is typically slow.  

That's the good news 

The technicals are working like never before, and today when I hear analysts talk about "valuation" I just have to laugh. The market doesn't care about facts. 

The most obvious case to be made that the market no longer cares about facts is the valuation being placed on Bitcoin, which continues to trade over $100k.   

 There's nothing new under the sun       

 I did a little digging this morning, and I was shocked to find that the Euro was actually created as a digital currency. I guess I had never really thought about it, and I was actually searching for the date it was created, when I stumbled upon this fun fact.

 I find it very interesting that the EURO was created just before the tech bubble imploded. 

 Is the Euro as worthless as Bitcoin? I suspect it is, considering that it has continued to trade in a bear market, ever since just after its creation. 

And here's another fun fact: Who is going to get hurt the worst when the Euro goes belly up?

Germany  

 The idea that the euro favors Germany is politically controversial, but there is some support for it. investopedia 

Several nations including China are relying on the EU to save their failing economies, and I have a prediction to make. This won't end well for any of them!

What does the market care about?     

I've been tracking markets closely for nearly 15 year. I've watched as the perma-bulls have done everything in their power to keep market corrections from happening, and to some extent they've succeeded, except for the sudden market crashes we see every few years, as we recently witnessed back in April, when the $VIX was driven from 30 to 60, in 2 days, before seeing the biggest short squeeze on the Nasdaq in history.  

Today we see the $VIX trading back below 20, after briefly testing the 22 level, on news that we were headed for a broader conflict in the middle east, with most investors pretty much ignoring the possible outcome. The market doesn't care about facts. 

At least Oil markets couldn't ignore the news, and I suspect that the Oil bulls haven't figured out how to manipulate the Oil $VIX (the $OVX), as easily as they do the $VIX. 

$VIX  - being sold at the 5- day moving average - this is one of the few things the market cares about 

 


 

Technically they will try to tell you that the $VIX can't be directly traded, and while that may be true,  there are other ways of manipulating the $VIX, and I've blogged on this topic at nauseam. 

Yesterday the market cared about the "dash for trash", which I predicted back in March, and I reaffirmed it in several subsequent blogs. They even managed to drive Bitcoin up 5%. 

 

 As usual I'm not giving away my trades, or handing out any valuable charts, but I can give you 1 more great example of what the market manipulators have been up to, as the 4th of July break draws near, and all the market cares about at the moment. 

Trapping the short sellers 

 


   Take Care, and have a great summer vacation, 

AA  

 

 

 

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