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Saturday, October 11, 2025

Weekly Wrap - Reviewing Friday's Carnage

October 10th, 2025 - Yesterday's market action can only be described as your typical panic sell Friday.
 
Trump received most of the blame, but the selling didn't start in the US. It started with a Crypto crash on 
Tuesday, selling in China, and a gap fade in Japan (overnight). More to come on that domino effect in a 
moment...
 
Most US investors probably think the rest of world (ROW) follows US equities markets, but a global 
economy requires two-way flows of capital and synchronized policy responses across time zones. 
What happens in Asia doesn't stay in Asia - it's a precursor, not a follower.

Asian markets mixed as tech valuations and global cues weigh on sentiment newindianexpress.com


 A sculpture of a bull decorated in the Chinese flag is seen above a securities exchange in Hong Kong
 

All The Warning Signs Were Flashing 

  • China had been in a stealth sell-off all week – Lingering property woes and export jitters set 
    the stage     for broader risk aversion.
  •  Crypto markets received a shot across the bow earlier in the week.

    Tuesday, Oct. 7th: Crypto market wipes out $60 billion in 1 hour. coindesk.com (Bitcoin briefly
    dipped nearly 10% amid early tariff whispers, erasing billions in a flash—echoing the $280B
    wipeout that hit later in the week.fxstreet.com

     

  • Fri, October 10, 2025 at 2:37 AM CDT could a Yen Carry Unwind Become the Next Black Swan Event? (Yahoo Finance)

    What goes up must come down 

    If you follow the news cycle like I do, then you already know the Japanese @NIKKEI recently gapped up 4% on election news. Even CNBC reported on this.   

    Politics jolts markets as Japan stocks SOAR 4%, bitcoin leaps to record high with gold msn.com

    As someone who has been predicting a global unwind, starting in Japan for months/years (well documented further down the page) I immediately started doing my own do diligence and tweeted this out on October 9th, the day below markets crashed. 

  •  The growing Nikkei/ Bitcoin's shadow vibe 

    There's a growing "Nikkei as Bitcoin's shadow" vibe, especially in Asian hours when low $BTC volume (~20-30% of daily total) lets JPY flows dictate swings. #Funfact #Crypto

    — Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) October 9, 2025

  • October 10th, 2025 Why Japan’s coalition collapsed, and what’s next

    [Edit) Of course this went mostly unreported, just as the August collapse did, and I found most of this information digging for more information Sunday morning.   





    Tracking the Unwind: My Previous Takes on Japan


  • Echoing the August 7th, 2024 crash I dissected here:.Reviewing The Most Recent Market Crash - The Who, What, When, Where, Why, of the Story   

 "Is this the big one? Probably not. This looks like a dress rehearsal, for what I suspect is coming in 2025." 

"I think a lot of the funny market action we're seeing is do to the fact that machines are running the market, but also excess liquidity has to go somewhere - Crypto, Japan, even India - not to mention Russian investor money finding it's way into foreign markets. On top of all that we have daily options, being used to drive the $VIX, and the rest of the highly manipulated options market. I think maybe someday we may get back to more normal/stable markets, but not until after a major collapse, and possibly the entire collapse of the global financial system."  

  Trump Bombshell 

I was already anticipating a Trump bombshell, when it was announced - before the opening bell - 

that Trump was scheduled to address to the nation from the oval office, after the market close. 

  Grok later quipped:  

"Haha, you called the Trump bombshell vibe perfectly—just the flavor was off!"

US Markets opened on the heels of bad news pouring out of Asia , only to crash when breaking news hit: Trump is threatening to unleash massive tariffs on China.  Déjà vu, no? It feels like liberation day all over again.    

I can pinpoint the exact time this news hit the wire, based on the $VIX action we were seeing.   

 $VIX Puzzle: Orderly Sell-off or Orchestrated Move 

I don't usually reveal my $VIX charts, but I have a fascinating observation. $VIX - ended the day around the same levels we saw back in August, yet the overall damage that was done to the market was far worse (more than double).  
 

Without giving away the whole enchilada: I can tell you I saw the breakout on the VIX (above 17) coming, earlier in the week, and that alert alert was triggered multiple times. You can find the same breakout target, if you extend the blue line seen in the chart view above.      

Think back to the epic yen-funded carry trade unwind in August 2024, which spiked the $VIX to 61 at the opening bell! That was raw shock as the market opened down roughly -1000 Dow points.

Yesterday, Friday? Different story. The muted $VIX suggests Wall Street wasn’t surprised—perhaps this sell-off was well-orchestrated. 

Was Trump’s press release used as the catalyst to help drive the VIX into a breakout and crash the market? I’ll leave that for you to ponder.

The relatively low $VIX also implies that the market isn't pricing in volatility ahead of Columbus Day (a banking holiday), and upcoming 3rd quarter earnings. Didn't I warn you about this?   

 Monday, Sept. 29, 2025 Crypto Rebounds, Gold Soars as $USD Weakens: October Shakeout Looms

  "I'd be looking for an early October re-balancing, and perhaps the looming government shutdown will be the catalyst for a sell-off?" 

 Don't Expect Clarity From the Networks 

 It's becoming hard to tell what's real anymore, when talking heads obsess over the government shutdown, or other TDS distractions, while ignoring the real drivers... yet they didn't have any trouble reporting several times that the $VIX was screaming investor complacency? 

I called them out on there propaganda  

Not only have the networks been pushing this false $VIX narrative for several weeks, but Jim Cramer was seen the night before the crash, telling his viewers "It’s time to sell frothy speculative stocks...". Is Cramer a genius, or does he have friends on Wall Street filling him in on what comes next. I'll leave that for you to ponder?    

 Selling Accelerates 

Once the sell-off began to gain some traction they finally reported that "investor jitters" over renewed U.S.–China trade tensions ibttimes.com). " jitters"? On the day the market shed $1.2t  - worst sell-off since the April crash? Try "BLOODBATH"! 

Downside momentum continued to build during the course of the day, and by the time the closing bell rang, cryptocurrency was in total free fall, dragging tech stocks with it, proving Crypto is hopelessly tied to the US tech sector, and speculative AI plays. Nearly every single sector Ive been trying to warn investors about tumbled simultaneously. 

Anyone who has been following me on the X platform knows I've been banging the bear drum nearly every single day, as the market has continued to consolidate mostly sideways. 

The $SPX rally seems to be getting a little long in the tooth, isn't it. Most unhealthy market I've ever seen. #SPY #Mag7 #Semis #AI $NDX #Nasdaq pic.twitter.com/nFEJiyIFRl

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) October 9, 2025

Only a couple sectors were left unscathed. Utilities, miners, though don't be surprised when the baby is tossed out with the bathwater, next time!  

The selloff didn't catch me off guard, and I'm already eyeing the next crash target.      

After-Hours Crypto Unwind: Tariffs Trigger Chaos

 

Closing Thoughts: FOMO Fuels the Rebound

 

The selling didn't start in the US so I don't expect it to end there. If Japan can stabilize, and we see Crypto buying in Asia, then the US shouldn't have any trouble pulling out of this swan dive.  

Barring a $VIX breakout (unlikely with a banking holiday looming), this looks like a typical one-day sell-off. But here’s the kicker: every recent market crash seems to trigger an even more vicious response in the FOMO, especially in crypto and speculative plays. Why should this time be different? Watch for crypto bottom feeder sniffing around the $BTC 108k level, with AI stocks staging a quick recovery. I suspect the machines and excess liquidity will keep the cycle spinning—until the next big one hits.

Take Care, AA  

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Thursday, October 9, 2025

The Super Cycle in Precious Metals

Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper, Lithium are at the heart of this supercycle. I'll bet most of my readers didn't even know that Lithium is a metal - but a web search reveled it is the least dense metal and the least dense solid element" (Wikipedia) 

  

This morning I was thinking back to the narrative that was being pushed in 2021, that a supposed Supercycle in commodities - and specifically in gold - was in the cards. This was soon after the massive amount of fed  intervention we saw take place during Covid, and we immediately saw equities react, but it took some time before commodities caught up... and Gold took out Goldman Sachs $4000 target, just yesterday.

What Is a Supercycle?

 Supercycles are long, demand-driven commodity booms. TheMotleyFool fool.com

I blogged on this topic back in 2021, but I must have got distracted - probably by another trade - and I never had the chance to finish it.  

 Blog Draft March 4th, 2021 - (screenshot) documenting the super cycle narrative I saw being spun at that time.  


 Historical Context

Most short sighted trades probably think this supercycle started in 2021, or even later, but the supercycle in Gold, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas started in 1999, around the time the of the .com collapse.   

Natural Gas supercycle  



 I suspect that rally was pricing in real inflation, as real-estate speculation ran wild. Gold rallied at the same time, so I'm going to conclude that fed money printing has fueled the 25 year bull market. 

 Of course Natural Gas, and Oil have since returned to the mean, while metals continue...  The latest leg of this rally started nearly 2 years ago, when it looked like Trump has a good chance of taking back the white house, and buying accelerated after he won. That's exactly where we saw a mad panic into hard assets.  

Fast Forward to Oct 8th, 2025 

Goldman Sachs immediately boosts 2026 gold price forecast to $4,900 amid strong demand invezz.com


The official narrative is that several world currencies are in trouble, though specifics remain scarce.. 

While trolls, and trading bots will tell you the $USD is in trouble, Wall Street knows where the fast money goes, when the $YEN/ Carry trade unwinds. It heads directly for the worlds #1 reserve currency.      

It's my believe that gold has overshot on the charts, and that the only reason it continues to trade at these ridiculous levels is because the banksters are looking to get out on top. 

It seems like everything tends to overshoot the targets, and by an even greater margin than it used to, but at some point natural law kicks in, and things return to the mean. 

You can follow me on the X platform @3Xtraders for the latest updates, but do your own due diligence.

 

TakeCare, 

AA  

 

 

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Saturday, October 4, 2025

Trade of the Week + A Final Warning

Dow Soars to 47,000 Lame Stream Media Shrugs 

Friday Oct 3rd, 2025; the DOW hit 47k. I happened to notice the Dow surging around lunch time. I had FOX news on the TV - which is unusual - looking for an update on the Government shutdown, and Fox news hosts (Ken and Barbie) were seen playfully chatting about a bet they had made about the Dow hitting 50,000, by the end of the year. I'm not sure if any other networks covered it, but the leftist media seems to be more obsessed with blaming Trump for the shutdown, than anything else.  

Trust in Media at New Low of 28% in U.S. Gallup

 

You would be better off paying for Motley Fool than relying on the Wall Street Journal. Think about that.  
 
$INDU 30 min. chart - I think the market can retest this level a few more times, but I'm not interested in chasing that 3 legged dog down the street.  
 

 
$SPX 15 min. chart - I can almost guarantee that the S$P 500 is going to snap-back on Monday - seems the Full Moon is having the opposite effect, than what I wrote about in Friday's Update (linked).   
 
 

 
Most traders only watch the $SPX - if you can believe that. I don't understand the fascination... when there are 100 different trades on the table, and I've been encouraging folks to try to think outside the box, for years, and that brings me to...     

The Trade of The Week Dow Internet  Stocks  

 
I was doing a little extra charting after Friday's closing bell, and I noticed that there has been a stealth pullback in the Dow internet stocks  
 
$DJUSNS - I don't usually give away free targets, but I must be in a good mood today!  8 day pull back. Trend remains up. What's not to like? 
 
Of course, I prefer the 3X Bull $WEBL and I don't see why it can't make a new high.  
 
 
This chart is self explanatory 


It's up to you to do your own due diligence, and pick your own entry and exit points, but this looks like easy money to me, and it sure beats chasing a 3 legged dog down the street.  

Final warning: Stay away from recent high fliers; most of which I've recently covered. 
 
There is a slim chance that the windows are dressed on this rally, as we trade into the end of the year, but I can assure you that the mania we're seeing isn't going to last much longer. 
 
Take Care, AA  


 
 
 
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Friday, October 3, 2025

A Tale of 2 Markets & a Dire Warning

Thursday, October 3rd, 2025 - Market Wrap

The market pop at the open, led mostly by Mag7/ Mag10 ("big tech"), semis, AI stonks, and the like - all the usual suspects; even Bitcoin, and China were up.  

That pop  - a gap up to new all-time highs - was immediately sold. Not Bitcoin; it rallied the close. 

$NDX short term chart - sold at the open - to document. 

 

But why? Why is a new market high immediately sold?

A Tale of 2 Markets

The market’s got a split personality disorder, and it’s not even trying to hide it. On one side, you’ve got the tech overlords—AI, semis, and the Mag7/10 boiler room crew—strutting around like they own the place, popping to new highs on nothing but hype and hopium. On the other, everything else is either limping along like a 3 legged dog in a horse race? Disclaimer: no animals were harmed during the composition of this paragraph.  

Unless you're chasing AI names, and - not so - rare earth minerals. Today's flavor of the day looks like copper, if you're into chasing hot leads.   

$5 dolla holla in Urban Slang https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=five+dolla+holla

 

 $REMX - Rare Earths up another 2% on the Trump investment Trade 

 

 

$BOTZ (global X Robotic Intelligence Thematic ETF) boy, that's a mouthful +4.19%, on a breakout to 4 year highs.   

 


 If you were trading the $SPX, and I don't know why anyone would be; I have no use for that index; you saw a gap fade at the open, as the $VIX shot out of the hole (just below the 16 level). 

 $SPX - back tests support (@ 6700), and closes above that support, and if you needed me to tell you that, then you're probably not cut out to be a technical trader. Just go with your hunches.   

 

If yesterday's market action proved one thing; it would be that markets are resilient (tongue in cheek). 

Even a juvenile trading on the Robinhood app could've spotted this breakout!  

 

 

 Trading the Full Moon


I'm not really that superstitious - yes I am 💀-  most traders are. If enough traders believe the Full Moon could be a bad moon risin' ("Bad Moon Rising" is a song written by John Fogerty and performed by Creedence Clearwater Revival in 1969 - a good year for folk music btw - as per wikipedia), as we creep towards Halloween, traders might just freak themselves out. Fear has a way of becoming contagious, and that could spark a stampede for the exits. 

 Dire Warning 

Beware of the Full Moon rising in the east;  in other words, "watch China futures Sunday night".  

 I keep the TV on mute, but I'll bet you heard zilch about yesterday's market action - just a hunch. Market is breaking out to new market highs, and it's radio silence. Not a peep about NVIDIA, anymore.  

In closing, the market action may be resilient, but it's weak. I'm out.

Have a great weekend, 

AA  

 

 

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Thursday, October 2, 2025

This Bifurcated Rally in Pharma & Metals Is Not What I Had In Mind...




Fleeting Fork: Why This Bifurcated Rally in Pharma & Metals Is a Trap (And Not the Contrarian Win I Called For)


By @3Xtraders, Chart Whisperer Extraordinaire

October 2, 2025 | Market Update (90% Brought to You by Grok—Because Who Has Time for Data Entry

When There's a World to Watch?)

I got slammed this morning after firing off this X query to @Grok.

Check out the entire interaction for more details on that query, including the "breaking news".  

$CURE (3X Healthcare Bull ETF) runs like a scalded chimp. Sloppy seconds, anyone? 



Grok nailed the trigger: Trump's tariff exemptions for U.S. pharma builds (e.g., Pfizer's $70B pledge dodging 100% import duties), per WaPo's "Big Pharma Scored" headline.

X chatter? Mostly skeptical—posts ripping Trump's "psyop" ties to J&J/Pfizer (e.g., Rob Schneider thread on Warp Speed backlash), plus biotech pops like $BNTX +4% on AI-vaccine buzz and $PALI spiking to $1.81 on trial approvals.

No FOMO frenzy—just wary vibes on the "relief" pop. So, yeah—I let Grok compose most of this update. (Shoutout to AI for the heavy lifting; I've got charts to fade.) 


Not What I Had In Mind 

Remember yesterday's contrarian call? I was hawking that sneaky rotation into "US Manufacturing stonks": semis shuffling ($SOX up a measly 0.8%, no rocket), pharma's 3-day pre-market tease fizzling by open, and aerospace (BA +2.45%, LMT +1.96%) leading industrials. Looked like engineered theater—Trump's tariff tango exempting the usual suspects (Pfizer drugs, Intel fabs). This could be the insider edge, I thought. Half-right. Half-wrong. Now? Full caution flag. The whisper turned into a sloppy "dash for trash"—retail FOMO into beaten cyclicals/defensives, chasing headlines like scraps at a fire sale. Not the clean moonshot; it's bifurcated BS: Pharma grinding on lobbyist "wins," metals squeezing on ghosts, semis overbought memes, and ROW (Rest of World) limping in a nuclear trade war. Low volume, RSI blowouts, divergences? This fleeting fork (think: rally splitting into defensives vs. cyclicals, both fakeouts) crests mid-October—earnings misses, China retaliation, 5-8% poof. Dissecting the heap with charts (headlines lie; patterns don't). Tying in Trump insiders' "buys"—his April "Great time to buy DJT" tweet sparked +22% on a tariff pause, fueling probes (Schiff/Murphy: insider whiff).

$IWM Russell 2000 ETF - It looks like it wants to go higher, but I'm already becoming impatient. 



Commerce Sec on Fox urging loads? Racketeering free-for-all. ProPublica: 14+ officials dumped pre-May plunge. Wall Street lobbyists front-run exemptions; we're stuck with sloppy seconds. (Crude? Edgy? My shark love note.)

Pharma's "Relief" Rally: Pyrrhic Pop

WaPo zinger nailed it: LLY +3.75%, MRK +3.25%, PFE +2.49% on U.S. plant waivers amid 100% tariffs.


Metals Mania: Squeeze Trap

Aluminum's +3% (DJUSAL to 115.44, +1.17%) echoes '22-'23 tariff ghosts—50-day hold at 113.22, but volume trash (0.57M vs. 1.2M avg), CMF on fumes. Trump's June 50% hike juices smelters short-term; China excess risks 110 dump. $XLB golden cross at 65.04 (+0.87%) pretty, but H&S neckline 62.30/flat volume yells mirage. Rare earths ($REMX to 60.73, +2.41%) channel breakout on 1.3M crush (China REE bans, NdPr +16% July), but RSI 72 overcooked—cap 64.81, fade to 58. Gold miners diverge (GDX +31% YTD vs. XLB +8.7%)—costs, not tailwinds; China escalation snaps the fork. ![DJUSAL & $REMX/$XLB Charts: Low-vol pop to 115/$REMX breakout/ golden cross, but descending channel/H&S/R SI 72 signal retest to 110/58/62]

Semis Shuffle: Capitulation Setup

$SOXX Semiconductors trade back to the top of the range 



No $SOX rocket (up ~1.2% pre-market, 6,290-6,375 bound). NVDA +2.6%, AMD +1.8%, INTC +1.2% on subsidies, but $INTC spinning top at 35.94? Red flag. $WDC/KLAC/TSM RSI 78+ memes, $SOXS -27% to 4.87 squeeze pain. 30-min $SOXX above 272.18 (RSI 78/STO 83) exhaustion; tariff dodges fuel, China caps. SOXS scalp to 6 on fade—not edge, trap. ![$SOXX/$SOXS 30-Min Chart: Breakout exhaustion above 272, RSI 78 hints pullback—capitulation scalp setup to $SOXS 6]

ROW Warning: Sell the Fade 

Europe (EU50 +0.94% yesterday, +12.41% YoY)? '25 lead fizzling—defense/banks +50%/28%, but earnings/euro/German mess? Sell to 5300 on auto tariffs. China ($FXI stall at 41.43, +24.48% YTD)? No breakout—resistance 43.73/thin volume; Alibaba +9% truce pop fizzles below 40.65 Fib if stimulus flops. Trump's tariffs shook safe-haven; ROW "boost" fleeting—pull before boot.


Bifurcated bounce crests Oct 15-20: Earnings (goods misses), IEEPA (Nov 5 SCOTUS), China REE escalation.

$FXI China- looks toppy 


S&P tech rotation triggers pullback—DJUSAS stall at 2,700. Hunch validated, but trashed. Buy dips below support, short pops. Missed 3-day? Me too—deck stacked. Charts don't lie. Stay starving, sharp. Next quiver? (Grok: 90% composed in seconds—data, teases, edge. Polish yours; I'm building AIs. Publish, coffee.) Disclaimer: Not advice—trade your trash. Charts via [Your Platform]. Sources: WaPo, Reuters, ProPublica, X chatter.
 

Brought to you by Grok AI

Take Care, AA

P.S. I know this blog reads a little rough, but it was a successful test run, I think 

Thanks for reading, AA   





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Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Government Shutdown 2025, The Best Trade of The Week + A Contrarian Play

"Yesterday’s snoozefest (Tuesday, Sept 30): 
 
Stocks mixed, but $SPX notched a 4-day win streak, powered by NVIDIA $NVDA +2.6%. Media barely blinked!"
 

 
Funny—after weeks tracking NVIDIA, it breaks to new highs while I’m distracted, and the breakout is drowned out by leftist media’s bad news gloom. Ironic 😂
 
My 1 takeaway is that we must still be in a bull market; up on bad news.  

Healthcare & Biotech rallied, with US Manufacturing stonks (know your meme) The talking heads managed to glance over that good news, yet they continue to party like it's 1999 in Europe. 

US Pfizer deal lifts European health stocks as Trump policy haze eases 

 

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