Anyone with a brain advising the President? pic.twitter.com/bJaNQhjKUH
— Edward Dowd (@DowdEdward) December 11, 2025
Edward Dowd nails it - see the comments section. Investors are fed up! The Dow scraped out a measly 400-point higher (monthly) high yesterday while the Nasdaq rolled over and played possum. But that’s enough for the headline writers: “NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS!” screamed across every screen, as if a 0.9% on light holiday volume is bullish. This is peak gaslighting, and peak window dressing, just like we witnessed this time last year, as expected.
1. Financials ($XLF) CNBC: “Financials smashing to all-time highs!” [That blatant lie covered just days ago link] Reality: The too-big-to-fail usual suspects—$GS, $MS, $WFC, $BK, plus the credit-card duopoly $V and $AXP—are the only things keeping the sector chart from looking like a heart-attack victim’s EKG. Regional banks? Still 30–60% below 2021 highs.
The Truth Beneath the Headlines
S&P 500 Equal-Weight ($RSP)Flat to slightly red YTD. Translation: 493 stocks are going nowhere. Seven stocks are doing all the heavy lifting. [covered that on wed. link]1. Financials ($XLF) CNBC: “Financials smashing to all-time highs!” [That blatant lie covered just days ago link] Reality: The too-big-to-fail usual suspects—$GS, $MS, $WFC, $BK, plus the credit-card duopoly $V and $AXP—are the only things keeping the sector chart from looking like a heart-attack victim’s EKG. Regional banks? Still 30–60% below 2021 highs.
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| $XLF retests the Sept, high hardly up YOY ($5) |
$BANK The 20 year view they don't want you to see and proof that in banking, the only thing more reliable than bailouts is the express elevator ↓ Rigged much?
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| $BANK |
2. Healthcare ($NYP) Did fantastic when everyone was locked in their houses, and government funded vaccines were in vogue. $NYP (NYSE Health Care index) is still 15% below its 2021 peak. Turns out perpetual pandemics aren’t a repeatable business model. Who knew?
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| $NYP NYSE Healthcare Index |
$DJUSHP Healthcare Providers no wonder both parties are still trying to bailout Obamacare!
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| Dow jones US Health Care Providers Index |
3. Transports ($TRAN / $XAL)
Remember when Dow Theory said transports have to confirm a rally on the Dow? Yeah, I used to believe in Santa Claus too (true story).
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| $TRAN trading at lower highs |
Airlines ($XAL) Bear market abyss—down 40–70% from 2021 peaks. 😖
Reality: Consumers ditching $374 “deals” for staycations while overcapacity drags. Cramer pumped “liftoff!” in Dec ’24, then vanished when the plane nosedived.
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| $XAL Airline Index |
Enter the Boeing Aircraft Salesman Nobody Voted For
Even Trump’s going to bat for Boeing—moonlighting as their top salesman
Trump lands a trade deal with Indonesia, on a HUGE Being aircraft purchase $BA #MAGA #EU #Japan #Europe #Canada #China #NVIDIA $NVDA #Crypto #Breaking pic.twitter.com/Uakf4lvAxi
— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) July 15, 2025
4. Energy ($IXE / $XLE)
Add Energy - Wall Street's Favorite Sector rotation trade - to Santa's naughty list. Still flirting with the same highs we saw in… checks notes… 2008. That’s right—17 years of dead money while oil trades 30% below its inflation-adjusted peak. But don’t worry, Exxon’s buyback program will totally fix decades of underinvestment and politically mandated suicide.
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| $IXE Energy Select Sector |
So What Exactly Is Levitating the Market?Seven/eight/20 stocks. That’s it.
The Mag7 accounts for nearly 50% of the entire S&P 500’s market cap weighting. Remove Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and the rest of the AI circle-jerk, and the index is flat or negative in real terms for years. Say a Prayer For America “New highs” in 2025 just means slightly new nominal highs before the next rug-pull. Rinse, wash, repeat. The music keeps playing because the Fed and the Treasury are still pulling chairs out of thin air and calling it furniture. Do you know there are more ETF's than stocks? 🤯 One day the music stops, the chairs disappear, and everyone discovers gravity still works.Until then, enjoy the show, stack accordingly, and have a very Merry Christmas—preferably paid for in something that isn’t priced in rapidly depreciating confetti.
The Mag7 accounts for nearly 50% of the entire S&P 500’s market cap weighting. Remove Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and the rest of the AI circle-jerk, and the index is flat or negative in real terms for years. Say a Prayer For America “New highs” in 2025 just means slightly new nominal highs before the next rug-pull. Rinse, wash, repeat. The music keeps playing because the Fed and the Treasury are still pulling chairs out of thin air and calling it furniture. Do you know there are more ETF's than stocks? 🤯 One day the music stops, the chairs disappear, and everyone discovers gravity still works.Until then, enjoy the show, stack accordingly, and have a very Merry Christmas—preferably paid for in something that isn’t priced in rapidly depreciating confetti.
P.S.
P.S. Top signal in silver confirmed: Bloomberg weekend segment featured 5-gram Pez dispensers at $150 a pop. When the cardboard cartoon junk is flying off the shelves, you know the mania peak is close. 🤣🍬
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