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Sunday, February 1, 2026

Wake-up Call after Friday's Precious Metals Crash (Gold, Silver, Platinum)

Friday's action should certainly be a wake-up call for the gold & silver bugs. A textbook lesson in capitulation, as I covered on Friday [link]:

  • Euphoric FOMO chasing/ retail short covering (Thursday)  
  • Catastrophic rug pull, the very next morning (in futures markets). 
  • Metals— still too hot to touch 
  • Once the dust settles, you're likely to see a lot of sideways action.

Look, if you're still trapped in your gold trade, then this may be an opportune time to lick your wounds, reassess your trading strategy, and live to trade another day. The market doesn't care about your love for gold. 

Oct. 2025 I called, "Gold, the biggest bubble we've seen in over 50 years" (confirmed by Grok/AI) [link]. But Friday was just a pin prick. A massive one day drop, but not an implosion. If this were a black swan event, all the charts would be broken, and that's simply just not the case. Today Precious metals remain in a massive overbought bubble, along with several other markets, but I suspect the implosion won't come until later in the year, if at all.  

Lately the market is afraid of its own shadow, hiding in sectors that don't make any sense. Fearing the US Dollar (really). Hiding in basic materials, oil, gold, silver, utilities? I call these chicken-shit trades, because this is where scared investors like to hide, when they hear scary Trump headlines being read off the teleprompter.  

Where Else are the Chickens Hiding?  

$UTY Utilities - Trading in an apparent wave 4 triangle. Short it into an extended wave 5. There's some advice you'll never hear on CNBC Fast Money.


I mentioned Elliott Waves in the previous blog, and perhaps I misspoke when I said EW patterns no longer work, yet the Utilities chart is trading in a textbook bearish wave 4 triangle pattern, and that's because it's not being endlessly pumped and dumped like so many other sectors. It's trading on emotion, rather than adrenaline.

Do you know who's not scared, and not hiding in gold & Silver?

Enter: Cathie Wood of Ark Invest 

many sources


Don't laugh - Wall Street picks the winners and losers not me... no coincidences. see the chart below:

$ARKK Ark Innovation ETF - Bullish (higher lows/higher highs),  Getting ready to test the 200 day SMA 

Good News is that as more and more speculative traders are wiped out (gold, silver, crypto, energy), the Investor Intelligence barometer continues to rise, and that brings with it better trading opportunities, but we're going to see continued sector rotations continue to be used to help lift markets. From Gold, into Crypto, and back into Mag7 again.  

Now that there's plenty of cash sitting on the sidelines, it's ready to be put to work in beaten up value names that have been selling off for months. in the annual dash for trash, where value is meaningless, and Fed intervention - and new creative ways of stimulating the economy (eg baby welfare cash injections) is everything.   

Buy American, buy the dip.

P.S.

I'm not going to name any names, but the same people who were telling you to chase the rally in metals, and miners, have recently been spotted deleting their bullish tweets, and selectively editing their podcasts. This is a dirty business. Conversely:   

 P.P.S. Brace yourselves: This From reddit 

Young Cathie Wood pictures are not priced into ARKK. Bullish! [link]
Young Cathie Wood - posed on reddit


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Friday, January 30, 2026

Gold/Silver Flash Crash, Nasdaq Tumbles -2% ($MSFT -12%), Tesla Bounces Out of the Pocket

Let’s start with the precious metals circus, because it was almost comical yesterday. No sooner than I called it a "speculative bubble" - in yesterday's update [link] - gold and silver straight-up flash-crashed like it owed someone money. 
I also warned about the bagholder risk in the $SPX, and when the music suddenly stopped traders who were relying on the 15 min chart for support suddenly had the rug pulled. Is short term support broken? Damn right it is! I’m not pounding my chest here, but the timing lined up nicely. No dollar collapse, no hyperinflation trigger – just a classic speculative unwind. I was posting the real-time laughs as it unfolded:Peter Schiff has since deleted that tweet, but his legacy lived on😅


Update on Silver this morning:  I jest but this trading the way it's meant to be! 
Then, right on schedule, almost immediately - 1 hour later - the dip buyers piled in and prices snapped right back, with Gold futures actually making new highs, and the Dow closing nearly UNCH. Nothing suspicious about that bounce at all (sarcastic), although it is textbook wave 2 behavior in Elliott Wave terms: sharp selloff, panic, then reflexive FOMO covering and dip-buying that sucks everyone back in thinking it’s “healthy.” Sure, most of what you learned in old-school Elliott Wave circle-jerks (mostly hog-wash) strict rules and guidelines, and bearish patterns that no longer work like they did, pre-algos, pre QE infinity, pre-PPT (plunge protection team), but the one thing never changes: human nature. The meat puppets still FOMO buy every dip like it’s going out of style. And that brings me to the broader market.
Yesterday’s open was brutal across the board – Nasdaq down -2%, led by Microsoft getting absolutely scorched -12% (worst day since the Covid crash). 
Futures are soft again this morning, with some headlines blaming “Trump's pick for new Fed puppet”, or Apple, but I think it's just a little wobbly, after yesterday's chaos. 
$SPX update: The 15-minute chart we were watching cracked almost instantaneously, triggering the initial spill. Seeing more weakness this morning, but yesterday's low becomes key support. I have a good idea where I think the $SPX is going over the next few months, but I'm not showing my hand, as usual. Directly from the 3xtraders playbook: "Loose lips sink ships".  
Bright spot: Tesla ($TSLA) - the one they love to hate 😅
Bouncing out of the pocket I highlighted, near the lower end of the range. Boring, right? I still like it here short-term. Longer-term, though, don’t sleep on that bigger topping pattern from yesterday’s blog – and all the xAI/SpaceX merger chatter feels more like desperation than creative expansion. The latest $XOM sold on good news. This seems to be the new trend looking at Apple as well. 


 Stay sharp out there – volatility is serving up plenty of opportunities, as well as plenty of traps.
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