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Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Silver Miners in Focus; Government Shutdown a no-brainer

Linking yesterday's update, in case you missed it: 

Crypto Rebounds, Gold Soars as $USD Weakens: October Shakeout Looms

I later heard it being reported that the dollar weakness we were seeing was indeed due to the highly publicized, and hyped, "looming government shutdown". The same one the leftist media has been pushing for since early August, and it seems like this non-event has already been priced in.
 

 Government Shutdown a no-brainer 

Markets are yawning at this so-called ‘looming government shutdown’ like it’s just another Tuesday. Investors are more focused on the Fed’s next meeting than this over-hyped snooze-fest. Unless this drags into Christmas and Santa’s stuck filing for unemployment, nobody’s buying (or selling) this drama.

Look, we've seen this same story many times over the decades, and nothing ever really seems to come from it. Of course the rats in the lame stream media are always looking for some new angle they can use to blame republicans.... but I'm afraid they're going to have to do better than this: 

Trump posts racist, AI-generated video of Schumer and Jeffries ahead of looming government shutdown

 

 Rather than link to the video CNN clutching to their pearls, adds this screenshot 

The screenshot House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jefferies is rocking a sombrero, while his sidekick, (Crying) 😭  Chuck Schumer, explains why they're working for Mexico, rather than for the American people.  

 Hackeem Sekou Jefferies predictably played the race card, tweeting "Bigotry will get you nowhere". 

I don't understand the racism angle, and jokes that need explaining, always fall flat.

Watch for stocks to continue to rally above 6646.50 support  

 $SPX 15 min. chart view - the bullish trend remains intact  

 

Silver & Gold miners are a different story 

Yesterday, we saw a Monday morning surprise propel Silver miners to complete what looks like a blow-off top on the chart. Be careful shorting this, because the buying volume has been incredibly heavy. 

I asked Grok why silver is acting like it just chugged a Red Bull: 

Unless silver has a new purpose (doubtful); I have to conclude that the retail investor is being sucked into another pump 'n' dump scheme, and for evidence of previous Asian investor panic-sells, one only needs to look back to the Crash of 2012!

Silver Miners in Focus

 $SILJ Amplify Jr Silver Miners - if you can short this outright, I would... In fact you can buy weekly Puts on this junk! 

 


Take care, AA 

 


 

        


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Monday, September 29, 2025

Crypto Rebounds, Gold Soars as $USD Weakens: October Shakeout Looms

 Today is the last Monday of the quarter (Q3):

 And we are way overdue for a correction.

 I'd be looking for an early October re-balancing, and perhaps the looming government shutdown will be the catalyst for a sell-off? 

$USD continues to be hammered quite aggressively, and if you're trading precious metals, or Crypto, you're going to want to keep a close eye on the 98.50 level. If you chart the 2 year view, you'll find it consolidating in a very bullish looking down-turned wedge (or Triangle) pattern, and I'll bet we see a massive short squeeze in the $USD, before year end.  

 

Crypto Update 

We saw Ethereum body slammed on Thurs. of last week, as the 2X bear $ETHD was driven to the 50 day ma.  

$ETHD (Leveraged 2X Ether bear)- This is too hot to touch, so I'd be looking for a cooling off period as I said in the last update. 


$BTC Bitcoin tests 112k resistance. - I think this has further to fall ,and I'd be looking for support around the 20 day moving average on $IBIT (the Bitcoin ETF).  

 


Gold Miners - the 10 month winning streak isn't even mentioned by Bloomberg - weird... 

 

 I was out of town on Friday, but reviewing the tickers, I see the top 3 holdings continue to lead the $GDX  

 


$GDX top holdings $AEM, $NEM, & ABX.TO Barrick ($GOLD/ also $B), all hit new highs. 

Markets are mixed  

The Broader market remains weak, and at the same time we're seeing high beta stocks still trading at/ near new all time highs, we're seeing investors seek safety in Utilities, and financials. Watch for that re-balancing I mentioned near the beginning of this piece. 

Take care, 

AA   

 

 

 

 

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Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Ethereum Finally Tumbles. Are Apple, NVIDIA, and Oracle next?

In my blog post dated Tuesday, September 16, 2025, titled "Important Update on Ethereum, $GDX Gold Miners, and Google/Alphabet," I declared victory after accurately predicting Ethereum’s pullback target and warned investors of "little support" at that level.

Important Update on Ethereum, $GDX Gold Miners, and Google/ Alphabet 

Fast Forward to Yesterday: 

Ethereum tumbles -7%  

Adversely: the 2x Ethereum Bear was up 14% and that was worth the wait!😂

I think that that trade may already need a little cooling off period, after yesterday's big move.

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Saturday, September 20, 2025

Market Wrap-Up: Fed Delivers, S&P 500 Soars... but Gold Miners Shine

 

Hey traders, let’s wrap up this wild week without turning it into a novel—because it’s Saturday, and I’d rather be smoking meat, than slaving over the charts!

FOMC Recap: 

Picking up from last week, the FOMC delivered the expected 0.25% rate cut. Bears hoping for a “sell the news” moment got smoked—when was the last time good news tanked this market? The Fed, as usual, handed Wall Street’s finest a smooth ride into monthly options expiration (OPEX), fueling a 5-6 month winning streak. Love it or hate it, that’s how the game’s played.

S&P 500's Historic Milestone 

Picking up from last week, the FOMC delivered the expected 0.25% rate cut. Bears hoping for a “sell the news” moment got smoked—when was the last time good news tanked this market? The Fed, as usual, handed Wall Street’s finest a smooth ride into monthly options expiration (OPEX), fueling a 5-6 month winning streak. Love it or hate it, that’s how the game’s played.

The S&P 500 is now +1000% off its 2008 low of 666. Remember that call? I nailed it back then on Yahoo Finance boards, though good luck finding proof—my charts from 2015 keep getting flagged as “sensitive content.” Coincidence? You decide. Either way, this milestone’s gone oddly quiet in the media. No confetti for a 1000% run? Strange.

Flagged as Sensitive Content in 2015   
 

Here I cam calling the same target on the $SOX back in 2015, low-and-behold there's another Sensitive Content warning placed on the chart. 😠

 


Seeing as both these tweets are from 2015, I'm going to assume that it was the $SOX chart, that refreshed my memory, or the 2008 bottom, and to be clear I'm not trying to do a deep dive into occult numerology. 

In 2008 I was kind of joking, although the chart target seemed to line up pretty well. I blogged on the subject at some point, but apparently deleted it.       

Anyhow, If I'm correct, that the 6666 target is a thing, and that Sept. Options Expiration was the "finish line", then markets should soon go from sizzling, so fizzling, as profit taking ensues. 

Sector Rotations & Swing Trades   

I have a lot of sectors I'm tracking, so I'm going to just throw it all out there, and you can skim though it. 

Trading Precious Metals, Gold/ Silver Miners, Crypto, and anything else that moves

Thursday the wife caught a massive rally in small caps - in her 401k - although I kept the cards close to my chest. 

We also got a little 2% pullback in Silver, and gold miners, before I turned bullish again. That may be confusing for traders who thought I was calling the absolute top, but confirming a reversal takes time, and patience. More on the gold miner trade in a moment.        

The setup for Friday's rally 

 

Gold Miners ($GDX): My top pick this week. Silver and gold miners caught fire into OPEX, with a monster swing trade. It’s becoming a very crowded trade; I think you're going to want to buy dips, and sell rips".

Crypto 

Crypto continues to under-perform and I think there could be more pain ahead. 

Bitcoin’s stuck in a bear flag, and I’m not convinced it’s safe yet. Big tech might feel the pain if crypto cracks, but the big players seem hell-bent on propping up crypto for now. 

Take Care, AA  


P.S.: “Update: Those ‘sensitive content’ flags on my 2015 charts? Just got them removed on appeal. Guess my calls were too hot for the censors! Follow me on X (
@3Xtraders
) to see the unflagged charts.”



 

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