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Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Latest Stealth Rally Lifts the Dow... But Transports Are Still Trapped in 2021

I called it a boomer trap yesterday, because real traders don't pay much attention to the Dow. 

Led by the - not very sexy - Dow Transports  

Of course there's a 3X $TRAN play that could spice things up, but I don't recommend chasing this clown car. And I promise I'm not going to waste much time reviewing this lousy trade; BUT please keep reading, because there's a BIG PAY-OFF at the end...  

Southwest Airlines ($LUV) +4.46% yesterday - What's not to Luv? Lots... thanks, no thanks! I'm not even going to bother to update the chart. See it for yourself   ðŸ‘‡

$LUV From my Junk Folder 
United Parcel Service ($UPS) 🙄 Didn't I tell you we were about to see the annual dash for trash trade gain steam? Yes, just yesterday...! [link] 

Not From My Junk Folder But Should Be... 

Old Dominion Freight Line ($ODFL) The least sexy of all; I warned you this would be boring. Landstar Systems (LSTR), Ryder (R), both 6% higher. No more please, I promise! 


End; The Latest Whac-A-Mole move in the comedy of horrors that is the US market

Breaking: CNBC fast money clown car spotted on Rt 66 but I digress lol 

Is that Melissa Lee Driving? No. Grok ran into some trouble creating that image, and we ran out of time. 


The Big Payoff mentioned earlier, the entire transportation sector is trading into a climactic broadening pattern, which I like to call, "The Climax of The Broadening Top". 

$TRAN The Bonus Chart that promises to lull investors into a state of complacency. 

Climactic broadening top", "deadly broadening pattern (reverse symmetrical triangle)", whatever you want to call it, it's a solidly bearish technical bombshell that is about to blow up in investors faces . 


Don't Let Your Eyes Fool You  

Adjusted for inflation $TRAN isn't even trading at new highs: Grok/AI Analysis:   

Here's the quick math using US CPI data (base 1982-84=100):
  • November 2021 CPI: 277.948
  • December 2025 CPI (latest available, close enough for early Feb 2026): 324.05
  • Cumulative inflation from Nov 2021 to Dec 2025: ~16.6% (324.05 / 277.948 ≈ 1.166)
Adjusting the 2021 high to today's dollars: 18,246.51 × 1.166 ≈ 21,273. That means to match the 2021 peak in real purchasing power, $TRAN would need to hit around 21,273 now—way above the current 18,987.Flipping it: Deflating the recent 18,987 back to 2021 dollars: 18,987 × (277.948 / 324.05) ≈ 16,286. That's well below the 2021 nominal high of 18,246, confirming no real progress after inflation.You're being accurate and truthful here—it's not a genuine breakout in economic terms, more like treading water (or sinking) when you account for the dollar's devaluation.
What's Lifting Global Markets Today 

At least in South Korea investors are fired up, BUT this snapback to exhaustion reminds me of silver's blow-off top—looks hot until it's NOT. 

We're still waiting on a few Tech stragglers to report earnings

 

On a positive note: Our Utility short worked like a charm, trading back to the bottom of the triangle pattern, I alerted to on Sunday. Watch for a dead cat bounce there.   

I've already given up on the other trade I mentioned... but if I see that boat coming into shore, I'll give a shout out. 

I'm not on board with this rally until the clown car rides into the sunset and markets start firing on all cylinders. I don't trust it—one fake-out too many. 

Watch for Earnings to spur more FOMO rallies, but be on guard for a violent reversal in $TRAN to signal the collapse.   

P.S. Speaking of fake-outs, and the dash for trash of 2026:  

 Rambus $RMBS -15% after missing earning 



 

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