Page menu

Thursday, May 4, 2023

The Fed Continues To Throw Gasoline On The Fire

The Fed Continues To Throw Gasoline On The Fire 

The Fed raised another 1/4 point as expected, and they left the door open for further interest rate cuts. 

Bloomberg immediately reported that as "hawkish" (as in a pause), but the lame stream media had to try and save the "one and done" story they were pushing all week. 

What was interesting to me, is that Bloomberg already had their statement prepared, when I thought they had to wait for the actual release of the statement, like everybody else? Apparently not!  

Then came Chairman Powell's speech:

The market sure didn't take, as encouraging, or hawkish,



and to make matters worse; no sooner than the market closed, bad news was released on yet another failing bank. 

PacWest Bankcorp 

Bitcoin Rises as Latest Teetering U.S. Bank Sends Traders to Crypto Haven coindesk.com 

We also saw scared retail money continue to flee to gold, as I watched it spike to around the 2070 level 

I can't help but wonder where we would have ended the day, if the bad news hadn't been withheld  until after the close. 

No doubt we would've seen a bit more selling.... but market futures were not seen breaking any major support levels, and this morning we see the market ignoring Chairman Powells failings, and S&P 500 market futures are once again being propped up above the beloved 4100 level, in anticipation of all things Apple earnings! LOL 

China and tech both up

 The $HSI (The Hang Seng) was up 1% overnight. That doesn't make much sense from a technical standpoint, after the index was down 1% the day before, but it looks like some post holiday bargain hunting. 

$EEM (mostly china) is trading just below the 50 day ma, so that's something to watch today. 

I believe that needs to pull back more. 

Financials and Bank Stocks

This is obviously something to watch. Remember when I remained bearish on financials even as it rallied over the past 2 weeks? Well if I had been short, that bet would finally be paying off! 

$FAZ (3X Leveraged Financial Bear) - not suggesting you should pile into this one. 


All Eyes on $AAPL 

 As I laid out last week, the entire market hinges on the $QQQ, and FAANG stocks. 


Dip buyers always rush in, but let's assume that 90% of trading is performed by algorithmic trading programs, which are programmed by teams of tech gurus. Now, the market action makes perfect sense! 

Take Care, 

AA 

Posted by at No comments:

Friday, April 21, 2023

The Elephant In The Room


That best describes the trade this week! 

Last weekend I described the trade as, "ridiculous as ever, which seems to have become the new normal." 

On Tues. I blogged on the Boring Market in Dull Markets Continue 

At least I've been consistent and right all along, but trading has been as excruciating, as I can ever remember. 

Sure, we're seeing a little whipsawing action here and there, but by the looks of it, we're going to close about UNCH (unchanged) for the week. 

Yesterday, we finally got a little rebalancing, and I can hardly even believe I got that call right! 

That's right, after a week of trading in a range, I called for a correction, back to the extreme lower end of that range, and we finally saw stocks end deep in the red. 

Of course nobody else saw this coming, or there would have been at least 1 like on the tweet. Sense my frustration? 

I actually saw the sell-off coming, around 2PM CST in real time

I suppose most traders would be thrilled to be right so many times in a row, but I like to trade leveraged ETFs, and I'm not usually jumping in and out of trades intraday, as a "pattern day trader".

At some point in the near future I see myself being upgraded by my broker to that status, but I'm not in any hurry to be labeled as such. If you're unfamiliar with what I'm talking about, here's an explanation 

As I was saying  I mainly trade leveraged ETF's, and these funds bleed value when you hold onto them in a flat market, and if you find yourself in a flat market, at some point you have to fish, or cut bait. This is why I recommended traders sit on their hands, until the $VIX starts breaking out. 
This constant bleed in leveraged ETF's also explains why the moving averages aren't very accurate, but that doesn't stop traders from actively trading those levels. 
Yesterday, we did see the $VIX finally move, but it was quickly sold as usual. 
I used the opportunity to take some money off the table, which is very frustrating, but the situation is what it is. At some point you have to have the discipline to do what is required, in order to trade another day.
$VIX
If the $VIX breaks out above 18, then I may be forced to chase the downside, and there is a good possibility that the only thing that is holding this market up is Options Expiration - as we saw just ahead of the covid crash. That crash wasn't allowed to take place, until the following Monday. 

The Elephant In The Room 

The Elephant in the room is OPEX, and I was shocked to see Bloomberg report on it this morning! 

 I watched the TV coverage, and the news girl joked that this was probably a first... as she explained that the market hasn't been pinned like this for a very long time, and then she went on to talk about how money managers were basically being forced to buy (options) protection, which made no sense.
 Look, if MM's were buying protection, the $VIX would be up, and the market would be more likely to close up on OPEX. Even so, I think there's a good chance the $SPX finally closes above the 4100 level, this time.  
Then Bloomberg cut away to what can only be described as a NY City sunrise (climate engineering) psyop: Red skies are caused by particulate matter, high in the atmosphere, and that's why red sun rises, and sunsets, have become the new normal. I've been documenting this effect for over a decade now.


I sure do miss the beautiful sunrises we used to see, before climate engineering. 

The powers that be, only claim to be looking into climate engineering, as a way to cool the planet, because in fact, they've already been at this for a very long time. This is the number 1 threat to humanity, second only to nuclear annihilation, and it's being hidden in plain sight.   

Related Documentary Exposes The Truth About Climate Engineering:
The Dimming, Full Length Climate Engineering Documentary: Exposing the climate geoengineering cover-up 
Take Care, AA 



Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)