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Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Greenland Escalation Hits the Tape Right After Options Exp

This morning's action seemed to confirm the bearish pattern I was seeing on the $SPX futures chart I tweeted out on Friday, and futured remain deep in the red this morning. 

The Catalyst - which just happened to kick off just as soon as Jan. Options Expired—classic Trump tariff retread to spook the algos. Coincidence? Was it also a coincidence when the Covid crash happened the day after OPEX? I'll let you decide. 

An escalation of tensions between NATO and the US over Greenland

1. European countries attempt to usurp US interest in Greenland - as a long time military stronghold - markets reacted with repeated breakouts on the $VIX.  

2. Trump announces 10% tariffs on eight nations Britain, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, which go into effect Feb 1st. 

3. French president - requests that the EU deploy its anti-coercion instrument, the bloc’s most powerful retaliatory tool originally designed for use against China. What a poser.

French President Emmanuel Macron - wearing blue aviator shades - calls for retaliatory ‘trade bazooka’ - (Yoan Valat/Reuters)

4.  Bessant was seen dialing back the rhetoric on Meet The Press - on Sunday - stating "Europe is too weak to defend Greenland from future threats". 

"Let me tell you what will happen, and it might not be next year, it might not be in five years, but down the road this fight for the Arctic is real," Bessent said. "We would keep our NATO guarantees and if there were an attack on Greenland from Russia, from some other area, we would get dragged in. So better now, peace through strength, make it part of the United States, and there will not be a conflict because the United States right now, we are the hottest country in the world, we are the strongest country in the world. The Europeans project weakness. The U.S. projects strength".  (thehill.com)

Wall Street Journal (used to be a reliable news source) Ramps Up The Fear Porn TLDR:

Wall Street Journal Flags A Dark Downside To Donald Trump’s Greenland Push

The newspaper's conservative editorial board pointed out the "sad irony" of the president's bid to seize the island. (huffpost.com)

Hey, remember when I blogged about European markets being in a bubble, and I highlighted the Leveraged European Pro Short ETF $EPV? prolly not [link] ðŸ˜…
Directly Ties In With This Provocative Tweet 
$LIN Chart (updated) 
Of course I was a little early, but that sure beats the hell out of missing the boat, or being left holding the bag, as investors who took CNBC fast money's advice to to "Invest In Europe".   

CNBC Promo: MIGA Make International Great Again 
  
1. Dec 23, 2025, Tim Seymour pitched his 2026 "MIGA" (Make International Great Again?) play on Fast Money, talking up global markets' momentum into the new year—implying overweight international amid 2025 outperformance. Video/transcript here: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/12/23/tim-seymour-talks-his-2026-miga-play.html (includes his take on semis like ASML, a Dutch/Euro heavyweight he was bullish on that day per CNBC trackers). 
2. Then, on Jan 5, 2026 (building off late-2025 vibes), he doubled down on CNBC's The Exchange, forecasting international markets (Europe included) rallying through 2026, sustaining their 2025 edge over U.S. benchmarks. Clip: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/01/05/international-markets-to-rally-in-2026-says-fast-money-trader-tim-seymour.html

Europe for a Trade? Yes [as I called out in early January [link] Europe as an investment? Hard no. 

Greenland Chaos May Turn Out To Be A Blessing In Disguise 

Nobody makes money trading a sideways market, and with the $VIX chopping around the 15 level for months, there seemed to be no end in sight to the Sideways Purgatory Curse we've been stuck in since October. Greenland escalation just slammed the door on that—and finally kills the 'broadening out' lie once and for all. 

Bloomberg and co. (bloomturd terminal traders) were seen celebrating a slightly higher highs on the already wildly over bought Russell 2000 - of all things - on Friday, but momentum on the hopelessly bifurcated market dried up months ago (Oct.), and big tech ended the week down nearly 1% - after Wednesdays rug pull.     

 $SPY $SPX ETF Chart Reality Check. 1. Barely trading above October levels, after months of SLOP. 2. Poised to break down from this upturned triangle/wedge pattern (last 30 days)—unless Davos pulls a rabbit out of the hat. Spoiler: "Nothing good ever comes out of Davos". 

$SPY DCS (daily candlestick) chart
 
Hey, how 'bout that 20% short squeeze in Natural Gas - called out that setup only a couple weeks ago, where I called "the short side of the trade crowded [Link]" This morning Natural Gas up +20%  #Boom #MicDrop  

P.S. Bonus Global Chaos Note: Japan's super-long JGB yields exploding to records (40-year >4%) on domestic election/fiscal fears—because nothing says 'stability' like tax-cut promises amid massive debt. Not Trump's fault... but markets love a good global chaos fearporn narrative spill-over.




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